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Currencies Technical Update ( 貨幣之技術分析 )
Below are three charts of the AUD, EUR and USD all of which are sitting at key levels and could break hard either way.
AUD/USD ( 澳幣/美元 )
An inverted head and shoulder’s pattern is currently breaking out bullishly fueled partly by the RBA deciding to leave interest rates unchanged. How this holds overnight and into the coming session will be interesting. What is also interesting is while I type this post the AUD is up .7% (and EUR/AUD down .9%) while equity futures are flat.The fact that these currency cannot put a bid into equity futures is rather interesting to say the least. ( 澳幣/美元是多頭，澳洲利率不變 )
USD (UUP) ( 美元 ETF )
For those new to currencies the USD unlike other currencies is also measured against a basket of currencies as captured by the symbol DXY. Notice the support and resistance levels this currency has traded within. A narrowing wedge in many ways defined by two different chart patterns. ( 我用 UUP 圖講解較佳，目前將延則下降趨勢及下擋支撐小幅振盪 )
EUR/USD ( 歐元/美元 )
I had to pull up a five year weekly chart to show just how vulnerable the EUR is right now. It has tried to find support at the 2005 uptrend but the bounce has been very weak. Not a bullish sign that this trend line will hold. If it fails notice on the chart how little support remains beneath it (points A and B).
The move could be rather breathtaking to say the least. As a reminder recent Commitment of Trader data would value the EUR at 1.20. ( 我使用週線分析歐元，仍屬弱勢往歐元/美元 1.2 趨近 )
影響黃金市場之因素 ( The Inference Factors of Gold Trend In 2012 )
Gold production cost will increase a lot after 3 years, this is another major inference factor to gold.
分析
分析
- 今年影響因素增加，幾乎由地緣政治、能源、美債泡沫至歐美如何發新債與印鈔之問題，因此，技術分析派之影響因素下降，其他影響因素上升。( Major inference factor of gold price from political 、energy 、 currency bubble and war, not from gold price chart technical analysis )
- 中東政局不安之因素上升，加上美國總統奧巴馬（ Barack Obama ）選舉， 美國與伊朗緊張局勢而未進入戰爭或伊朗逼迫美、英 、 德 、 中 、 日須以武力對制也對奧巴馬（ Barack Obama ）選舉有利，也對美國經濟有幫助。( Obviously, that Obama can get advantage to keep this tension of Iran on hand to benefit his president election )
- 中 、 印 、 俄對黃金增加儲備 是另一影響因素 。( Many countries increase its money reserve to gold )
- 歐 、 美印鈔 是影響因素之一 。( Printing money to help Enterprise is needed for capitalism to grow )
- 歐 、 美利率仍低，美聯儲已經宣佈至2014都維持低利率。( Low interesting rate is a inference to boost gold and economic )
- 最後影響因素是黃金生產成本，如上圖2012Q1 我預估黃金生產成本應該約 720$/OZ ，依預估至2015 黃金生產成本約 920$/OZ ，低於黃金生產成本之1.2倍價格，礦產公司會減產。( Cumulative production cost of gold will ramp up a lot, I estimated that gold production cost will increase to 920$/OZ in 2015 )
- 目前仍屬強勢。
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