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2016年4月2日 星期六

我所體會之富人與窮人在行為、想法之差異 ( What I experienced between rich and poor in his/her thinking and behavior )

  許多人也許少有機會看見自已朋友從貧窮走向富足、從沒房子沒錢走向上億富人,我卻是親眼所見,希望藉這樣所見所聞,鼓勵大家走向富足,才能幫助許多人,不要以為不可能。

10 Major Differences Between Rich and Poor People

I've been rich and I’ve been poor. I know both sides very well.

Growing up poor, I knew that I wanted to be rich. At the age of 24, I earned my first million dollars. I came a long way and studied the subject all of my life. Over time, I have discovered that if you're not living in prosperity, you're living in poverty.

Wealth is a choice that we must all make. Bill Gates once said, "It's not your fault if you were born poor, but it’s your fault if you die poor." There's no reason why you should live in poverty. Wealth is waiting for you, but you have to make up your mind if you want it in your life.

For a long time, I struggled to believe that I could eventually become rich. It wasn't until I observed the differences in thoughts and actions between the "haves" and the "have-nots."

Here are 10 major differences between rich and poor people: ( behavior )
  • 1a. Poor people are skeptical  ( 窮人易懷疑態度 )
    • I distinctly remember a former coworker of mine saying, "Those mechanics are a rip-off! They're always looking for the weak people. They'll charge you when you're not looking!!" He thought that everyone unjustly wanted his money and that everyone is out there to get him. 
  • 1b. Rich people are trusting ( 富人信任人 )
    • Surprisingly, a great deal of rich people leave their car and house doors open. Conversely, in areas of poverty, you'll find that this behavior is highly unlikely to happen. Rich people have the tendency to trust those they meet (within reason) and give others the opportunity to be themselves.
  • 2a. Poor people find fault ( 窮人找錯誤 )
    • People who are poor are always looking for the problems instead of the solutions. They end up blaming their environment, circumstances, jobs, weather, government, and will make an extensive list of excuses as to why they cannot be successful. 
  • 2b. Rich people find success ( 富人尋覓成功之道 )
    • Rich people understand that everything happens for a reason. Rather than letting life happen to them, they take direct action and make big things happen. They put aside all the excuses and eradicate their blame lists because they have to do what must be done. 
Related: 10 Phrases Every Millionaire Avoids
  • 3a. Poor people make assumptions ( 窮人常做假設 )
    • When it comes to knowing the truth, poor people often make assumptions. If they want to reach out to a celebrity, they might say, "They probably don't have time to talk to me." Instead of checking the facts or asking questions, they never make a true attempt when it comes to getting what they want.
  • 3b. Rich people ask questions ( 富人常問問題 )
    • Many rich people ask the question, "What if?" For instance, "What if I wrote an email to the president and he or she answers?" If you begin to ask questions, you will save yourself a lot of hassle. The power is in the hands of those who ask the right questions. They don't answer your questions, question your answers.
  • 4a. Poor people say, "They" and "Them" ( 窮人常說“他們”和“他們” )
    • In the grocery store, the woman at the register said, "They never have enough cashiers. I don't know what's wrong with them." Obviously, this woman did not take any ownership and responsibility over her job. She certainly did separate herself from the job that was paying her. 
  • 4b. Rich people say, "We" ( 富人常說“我們” )
    • At one of my favorite restaurants, the server said, "We take great delight in cooking our steaks in real fire." His sense of pride and ownership stimulated me, which allowed me to give him an honorable tip. Surely, you will be rich when you invest more into what you believe in.  
  • 5a. Poor people want the cheapest way ( 窮人常選擇最便宜的方式 )
    • I was once shopping with a friend who only wanted to buy if they could find the cheapest clothing. They would rush to the clearance rack and pick up clothes that they didn't even want, but ended up buying because of a "deal." Unfortunately, they ended up never wearing it since they only bought the price.
  • 5b. Rich people want the best way  ( 富人常選擇最好的方法 )
    • Rich people will go the extra mile to find quality material. They don't limit themselves to price and often seek service while they shop. Rich people want organized services and will never settle with items that are worthless and unusable.
  • 6a. Poor people think money is more important than time ( 窮人認為金錢比時間更重要 )
    • Millions of people all over the world are trading their precious time for money. You can always get $500 back, but you can't get 50 hours again. Nonetheless, the majority of people trade time for money and never realize their true potential because of it.
  • 6b. Rich people know that time is more important than money ( 富人認為時間比金錢更重要 )
    • Rich people never trade time for money. Moreover, they seek fulfilling experiences that dramatically alter their lives. Their careers are more focused on doing what they love and helping others, instead of merely clocking in for a meager paycheck.
Related: 5 Secrets to Monetizing Your LinkedIn Experience
  • 7a. Poor people compete ( 窮人只知競爭 )
    • When a poor person sees an opportunity, they find out how others are doing it and emulates them. Most often, they never consider another way of doing it. Instead, they settle in the belief that doing what others are doing is the best thing they can do for themselves.
  • 7b. Rich people create ( 富人創造機會 )
    • My rich neighbors were disgruntled when they found that their Porsche did not come in a specific shade of green, which they deeply wanted. Because of this, they decided to custom build their green Porsche with unprecedented specifications. I've never seen such a thing! 
  • 8a. Poor people complain, condemn, and criticize ( 窮人抱怨,譴責和批判 )
    • Most poor people have learned how to be poor from their predecessors. Their family members have conditioned them to believe that everything is "wrong" instead of right. If you're ever heard someone ask, "What's wrong?" you'll know what I mean.
  • 8b. Rich people praise and enjoy their blessings ( 富人讚揚和感恩他們的祝福 )
    • Rich people know that they have many privileges and they don't take it for granted. Because of their appreciation of gifts, love, and circumstances, they are able to generate more. Many times, what gets praised gets prospered.
  • 9a. Poor people seek amateur advice ( 窮人常尋求非專業意見 )
    • They often listen to the opinions of others and seek approval from acquaintances. They believe almost everything they hear without questioning authority. They accept opinions as facts and prohibit themselves from doing research once satisfied with an answer.
  • 9b. Rich people seek expert advice ( 富人們徵求專家意見 )
    • Those who are rich have learned to think for themselves. If they cannot figure out something, they seek expert advice. Usually, they pay for the advice and are given a wide variety of options. They learn the experts only make suggestions, which means that they aren't particularly confined to a specific action.
  • 10a. Poor people have big television sets ( 窮人喜愛有大電視機 )
    • Poor people take a lot of time to drift off to sporadic images of which they often have little to no control over. They use their free time to avoid the art of thinking (which is the most challenging task) and zone out to what many have conformed to believe is "entertainment." 
  • 10b. Rich people have big libraries ( 富人喜愛有大知識庫 )
    • Wealthy people are educated and read a lot of books. They use their knowledge in a way that benefits them. Instead of drifting off in random activities, they seek to get within their minds to understand themselves, others, and the world in which they live. In fact, as your personal library increase over the years, so will your home. I can attest to this!
To get a true perspective on how to become rich, you must study rich people. After all, you become what you study. If you're currently surrounded by people who aren't yet rich, just do the opposite of what they do. Soon enough, you'll be able to reach your financial dreams!

7 Main Differences Between Rich And Poor People

    Most people want to be rich, but most of them are poor, why? There must be some differences between rich people and poor people. If you study carefully, you will find out why rich and successful people are able to produce amazing results in their life, and why some people are living in poverty.
  To be rich and successful, you don’t need to be lucky, extremely hard working or you need to have a college diploma or a university degree.
  What you need, is the right mindset and the right mindset will form the right habit. As a result, the right habit will lead you toward the financial abundance kind of lifestyle that you always desire.
So here are the 7 main differences between rich and poor people…

  1. Rich people believe that they create their lives while poor people believe that life happens to them. 
    • Can you see why rich and successful people are able to create amazing results in their life right now? It is simply because they are in control of their lives. They believe that they are the ones who is responsible for their lives, they are the ones who is creating their future, not the economy or the knowledge or luck. On the other hand, poor people will always give excuses and blame on the circumstances. 
    • When they failed in their business, they will blame the economy, their boss, their family or anything that did not go according to their plan. Whenever you believe that life happens to you, you will lose the power to change and the power to control your future. You must believe that you’re the one who is creating your future, not other people or events.
  2. Rich people play the money game to win but poor people play the money game just not to lose money. 
    • This is a big mindset difference. Have you ever seen people invest in the stock market? Some people are so afraid that they will lose their money and they form a mindset that blocks their creativity. They formed the mindset of ‘investing not to lose the money.’However, rich and successful people know exactly how they need to think in order to win the game of money. 
    • They will think and act from the view of playing the game to win. Unlike poor people, they will never invest just not to lose the money.
  3. Rich people think and focus on opportunities while poor people focus on obstacles. 
    • When you face with problems, what are you focus on? Are you focus on the problems, thinking how bad the situation is going to be? Or are you focusing on the solution and thinking about how you can solve or even turn the situation into opportunity? Think about this carefully. No matter who you are, you will definitely face with all kinds of choices in your life. And when you need to decide to move on, try to notice on you thinking, what do you focus on, the solution, or the problem?
  4. Rich people dare to dream big, poor people think small. 
    • When I tell my parents that I want to make a million dollar, they will tell me, “Why do you need so much money? You can live a very good lifestyle if you got a job that has a good pay. You don’t need to be a millionaire.” I don’t know about you, but this statement happens to me all the time. And I definitely believe that poor people will tend to think small while rich people always think big. 
    • To poor people, they will think that rich people are greedy because they always think big. Is it true that you are being greedy if you think big? I don’t know if I buy this, but to me, I’ll think of it as a waste if you’re not using the resources available (your thinking) to you at full. Don’t you owe it to everyone around you to create a better life for them? Don’t you want your family to live good? So think big and create the abundance lifestyle for these people right now.
  5. Rich people are committed to their dreams, poor people are just dreaming about their dreams. Yes, this is an obvious one. 
    • If you’re not committed to be rich, you can never be rich. How many times have you heard people say that they want to be rich, but they never do anything about it?
    • This is the mentality of poor people. They will just think about how good it is going to be if they are rich, but they will never do anything about their dreams. They know that they cannot afford a luxury car if they have a low pay job. The thing is, they never do anything to change it.
    • On the contrary, rich and successful people are committed toward their dreams. They will do whatever it takes, in the boundary or moral and ethics of course, to achieve their dreams.
  6. Rich people associate with rich and successful people. Poor people will associate with poor people. Do you have any rich friends? Or all of your friends are poor?
    • I’m not suggesting that you need to stop making friends with poor people, what I’m suggesting it, try to get to know more about rich people. The more you mix with them, the more you will think like them. And if you think like them, you will start to create amazing results just like them.
    • If most of your friends are poor and their working salary all are below, $2,000, you will be having the same range of salary most of the time. However, if you associate with rich people who are making $2,000 in just a day, you will start to see the possibility of what you can accomplish in your life.
    • And this will change your thinking of what you can achieve in your life. $2,000 will become a small amount for you once you changed your mindset about money.
  7. Rich people good learners while poor people think that they have learned everything in the world. One of the fastest ways to be financially abundance is to learn directly from people who have already achieved this status.
And if you’re not willing to learn, you will never be able to be successful. If you want to get the best pay, you must be the best. And the only way you can be the best is to learn from the best and learn to be the best.
You now know what are the 7 main differences between rich and poor people. Do what rich people do and try to avoid the adopting the mindset and habits of the poor.
This will guarantee you a financial abundance lifestyle.

成為富人我體會之富人行為、想法心得:
  • 看趨勢、對方向比什麼都重要;( Trend )
  • 看遠景、產業趨勢;( Vision )
  • 生意模式、商業模式及創新之價值;( Business model )
  • 重閱讀、知識、人脈,非常多富人有大量知識及閱讀習慣;( Knowledge、Connection )
  • 看重健康,知道感恩 ( healthy & blessing life )
  • 看重執行力、選最好的來運作 ( Execution、do the best )
  • 看重投資及生意模式之財務績效成長率及風險,指數型成長,還是線型成長 ( Profit、Risk model )
  • 足夠的耐心等待時機、足夠的恆心毅力,了解該堅持是什麼 ( Patient、Determination
     )
    • 時間比金錢重要,時機比時間及金錢還重要
    • 時間比金錢重要,重點在於運用人脈、資源去順利達成
  • 一個產業或投資之成長,不是所有行業或方式賺的錢是一樣多的,投資賺錢模式要對 ( What is the key and secret in the great success of business and investment model ? )

參考

2015年12月7日 星期一

巴菲特投資智慧:股市投資必勝客 - 讀書心得:2016 台股將有一價值投資的機會 ( 2016 Taiwan investment forecast from the reading of Buffet's key points )

   由於判斷2015 ~ 2017是全球通縮及經濟遲緩的時期,最近將花較時間整理經濟趨勢,台灣各產業之了解,了解通縮下投資法則,同時分析下個產業演變是甚麼,面對下一環境我們該怎麼做?  也發現許多台灣新創公司,面臨比過去更難之處境,最難的地方是籌資及市場開發,基本上,我是效法巴菲特多閱讀多調查,加上多參訪新創公司,尋找全球通縮及經濟遲緩下新興成長區塊。

    投資大環境仍須注意兩岸發展,政府相關因應措施,應該要加上"兩岸貨貿協議"之影響,目前看來是中國大陸談判代表在談判中較能爭取中國大陸的利益,台灣談判代表能力是較差的也搞不清楚兩岸各商品價差,台灣優勢是半導體但中國大陸談判代表不會在這塊讓步,面板、工具機、汽車、石化這四產業,中國大陸的面板、汽車零件、石化價格遠低於台灣廠,所以"兩岸貨貿協議"談判仍是中國大陸談判代表贏面居多,就如同 ECFA 談判對中國大陸較有利,台灣看似省了關稅由於兩岸廠商競爭及中國大陸對高科產業優惠營所稅,反而讓台灣廠商需要到大陸成為紅色供應之部份,然後透過 F-股回台上市,這就是為什麼台灣成長率持續衰退原因,台灣談判代表能力是很有問題,其實香港簽 CPFA前後也發生很大問題,香港簽CPFA後也發生許多產業移往中國大陸人才也移往中國大陸,香港內經濟衰退最後只剩觀光、金融與服務業,香港經濟平均成長率也是遠低於香港97回歸前,而且,中國大陸借貸運用之香港資金是激增至4,300億美元(2013),相當於香港GDP的165%,而任何亞洲及世界金融風暴來臨時香港變成中國大陸金融風暴緩衝,台灣看來已經開始發生類似香港狀況:銀行數兆資金被中國大陸借貸運用、經濟衰退幅度精人、技術人才大量被中國大陸吸走

    台股面對2016這麼大的全球通縮與經濟遲緩,加上政黨輪替,極可能明年上半年有一波很大回檔,現在仔細了解台灣及中國大陸整個經濟趨勢,2016公司債倒閉潮會啟動,會從原物料與能源產業的公司債倒債啟動,逐漸擴散至其它產業的公司債,最後會走到銀行金融債的倒債。所以尋找未來還有價值的公司及新興成長區塊,將投資形成一種生活方式,是我在這次閱讀幾本巴菲特投資相關書籍之心得。

在巴菲特40多年的投資生涯中,經歷過兩位數的銀行利率、高通貨膨脹、股市崩盤等險惡情況。但他都安全地渡過這些風風雨雨,沒有讓自己和伯克希爾遭遇重大災難。而且這些風雨更磨練其堅韌的性格和永不放棄的精神。他透過一生的投資證明自己是世界上最偉大的投資人。

  現在,巴菲特獨特而高效的投資理論和方法,已成為全世界股市投資者的金科玉律,被廣大投資者奉為圭臬。他的「價值投資法」、「集中投資法」、「長期持股」、「簡單投資」、「選股法則」、「安全邊際」、「投資組合」……等投資方法和理念對每一位投資者都有重要的指導意義。為了幫助讀者更深入地了解和把握這些股市投資的規律和方法技巧,給人們提供投資致富的捷徑,我們編寫這本《股市投資必勝客》。

簡單的投資法
  1. 觀察企業全貌及價值
  2. 不理會短期價格變動:要能投資一股票之價格低於或近於企業價值,自然不會理會短期股價變動;
  3. 買進是企業不是股票
  4. 管理企業的投資組合
  5. 簡單投資法
    • * 預期法: 預測公司獲利,盈餘,成本,銷售量
    • * 長期價值投資法
    • * 橫斷法: 道瓊股票價格平均指數,S&P 指數,道瓊月成交量,平均本益比
巴菲特認為統計方法之技術指數也需要掌握,這對投資時機之把握有很大影響,巴菲特仍然非常了解技術分析及運用方法,這部份是一般價值型投資忽略之點

巴菲特 黃金選股法則
  1. 選擇 過橋收費 的企業
  2. 選擇 陷入危機又有價值的企業股票
  3. 慎重看待高科技產業公司
  4. 選擇優秀且不需要追加投資的私人企業
  5. 不選擇產品價格慘跌的企業
投資法門
  1. 不在乎股票每日漲跌
  2. 不為經濟形勢所擔憂
  3. 買的不光是股票而是一家企業
不選擇原物料之股票公司,這一點剛好跟索羅斯不同,也與避險基金操作方法不同

巴菲特的投資成功秘訣是大量閱讀加上調查研究

巴菲特關於企業分析

把握三原則
  1. 企業的業務一定要簡明易懂
  2. 企業過去的經營狀況一定要穩定
  3. 企業必須具有良好的發展前景
膽大心細永遠是致勝的法寶。膽大心細 是做任何事大成功的法寶。看準就要大膽行動。看準是需要很大功夫,平時需要勤練;

巴菲特 12項投資要點
  1. 利用市場的愚蠢,進行有規率投資
  2. 買價決定報酬率高低
  3. 利潤的複合成長率使投資人受益無窮
  4. 要注意一家公司未來5~10能賺多少,不要只看現在
  5. 投資未來收益確定之企業
  6. 通貨澎漲是投資最大敵人
  7. 價值型與成長型投資理念是相同的
  8. 對企業了解的程度與投資收益是成正比
  9. 安全邊際 可以從兩方面幫助投資,價格緩衝區之保障,獲得相對高之權益報酬率
  10. 擁有一支股票,期待它馬上漲是愚蠢的,也代表沒甚麼潛力
  11. 就算聯儲告訴我未來兩年貨幣政策,我不會改變對企業遠景看法,除非你選擇之公司有問題
  12. 只注意買甚麼企業股票,及買入價格,不理會股市漲跌
8項選股標準
  1. 須是消費壟斷性企業
  2. 產品簡單,前景看好
  3. 穩定的經營史
  4. 經營者理性忠誠,始終以股東利益為先
  5. 財務穩定
  6. 經營效率高,收益好
  7. 自由現金充裕
  8. 價格合理
5項投資邏輯
  1. 把自己當作是企業經營者
  2. 好的企業比價格重要
  3. 追求消費壟斷之企業
  4. 最終決定公司股價是公司實質價值
  5. 沒有任何時間將最優秀的企業脫手
兩項投資方式
  1. 投資觀察點:
    • 股東權益報酬率 
    • 營運毛利 
    • 負債水準 
    • 資本支出 
    • 現金流量
  2. 當市場高估持有股票的價格時,可考慮進行短期套利
投資風險及機會分析 : 2016金融商品與機會

2015年9月29日 星期二

從2000 美國科技泡沫看美國升息、歐、日印鈔中國大幅貨幣寬鬆之全球股市、經濟及資金趨勢 : 全球股市空頭來臨?( World wide stock already came to a bear market for each country, Why ? )

從2000美科技泡沫台股超前跌看

    回億我 2000因為先看見第一季全球手機大廠剛進入衰退,加上政黨輪替及台灣大寬頻股條事件,將長期投資4年之DVD、美股半導體股、未上市股,毅然決定全部賣出,我記得那是一次很成功的投資收益,3.5年投資報酬率超過 625%,也是我第一次長期投資成功建立經濟基礎,非常感謝聖靈在2000台股股災之一再提醒,讓我能堅定在9800附近全數賣出,記得賣未上市股時還非常熱絡大家搶著買,現在想起來真是令人驚懼,因為許多那時之未上市股已經不在了,我選股能力還需加強。

    台股周線達大M頭首波跌幅最低7203點反彈,在長空的結構中周線的大M頭至少會跌2~3波,反彈後避險最佳,九月財報、第三季季報將是反彈利多出盡時間點,還是利空罩頂?

2000 美國科技泡沫前,台股是超前全球股市最早崩盤的,這一波全球股市回檔進空頭台股是開端
台股周線達大M頭首波跌幅最低7203點反彈,在長空的結構中周線的大M頭至少會跌2~3波,反彈後避險最佳
美股道瓊週再不反彈突破就有危機

美股道瓊週線跌破趨勢線17200點,累計量短壓在17476點,短線等待財報及第三季季報,技術面跌破15925後長線的空頭開始,小心投資。

美股道瓊週線跌破趨勢線17200點,累計量短壓在17476點,空方力量主導

美股最大危機是石油相關產業,因為美國石油庫存一直高檔,中國又大幅買石油來建立石油庫存,正如 Seekingalpha.com said : Everyone knows that crude oil inventories are at hugely elevated levels, indeed, at 80-year highs,說實在聽了我真的發毛,因為美國石油相關產業牽連相當大美股之營業額及獲利,會影響財報及第三季季報。

Crude Oil: Where Is The Bottom?
  • Crude oil prices have a long way to fall perhaps to $25 per barrel.
  • There will not be a bottom until there is a serious panic in the oil market and companies perform serious bloodletting.



2015 新興市場股市匯市再度出現資金撤出

巴西股市將面臨破6年頸線低檔支撐最後如何下探階段,巴西極可能發生金融風暴或倒債
泰國股市面臨M頭頸線測試階段,應該這週就破
印度股市面臨大修正
南韓股市面臨三年頸線測試及跌破趨勢線
香港股市面臨跌破趨勢線後之6年頸線測試

歐洲股市也面臨壓力

德國股市周線這次破線頭部完成後的反彈第三周所以時間到了,空頭中繼站上飄旗型完成,跌破前低便能計算跌幅滿足,技術面反壓10336點
法國股市是空頭反彈跌破趨勢線
分析
  • 台股、美股道瓊、德股、法股、巴西股市、泰國股市、印度股市、南韓股市、香港股市都跌破趨勢線, 25 週均線下彎之空頭趨勢,巴西更是面臨破6年頸線低檔支撐最後如何下探階段,全球是有可能發生金融風暴或倒債,在投資上要搞清楚台股周線達大M頭首波跌幅最低7203點反彈,在長空的結構中周線的大M頭至少會跌3~5波,而全球大部分股市也處於第一波跌勢,價值投資時間還沒到。
  • 全球經濟最大風險是中國大陸 
  • 全球經濟及金融最大問題是:過度投資、過剩產能、過度負債、過度依賴貨幣寬鬆及印鈔,卻忽略各國必須創造消費需求,否則,過度供過於求就是資產泡沫及通縮。