2009年1月31日 星期六

2009 2月份 ETF 投資操作模擬 2 (2009 Feb ETF Investment simulation 2)

    After last week of Jan 2009, we found that only one day surging up on Dow and US stock to reflecte the new events that "Obama's bad bank idea" to secure the finance credit issue in those US banks, this is a terrible situaion, it means the full market focus on jobless rate and economic growth rate relative report with data; so it made me to has some other selection for Feb as back up ETF set 2 to replace some ETF in ETF set 1 already need to put "no investment" in next week to avoid to explore the investment into high risk;

    New selection Feb/2009 ETF set 2 is used to back up Feb/2009 ETF set 1, if some ETF already suggested in "SELL" state, for example, we can replace SZK with DBC in the situation of DBC drop below its support. We refered to both page A and B investmnet stratgey.

    由於美國經濟數據非常差,加上Obama『壞銀行』並無法解決資產下跌與經濟衰退之問題,以『利空持續,利多出盡』一日上漲行情來結束,大家開始關心持續失業率、公司穫利營收及經濟數據,所以,預備數個放空型ETF來操作,以解決DBC, DIG, SKF於“2009 Feb ETF Set 1”賣出狀態,下週操作難度較高,美股多方仍然有企圖心,但DOW 8220 ~ 8162 壓力不輕且趨勢往下,應該仍然屬於振盪走低行情。

    所有測試 Google Spreadsheet, Google Finance API 與 Google Web computing server 之表格, 屬於 自己投資與Web computing 計劃之參考, 請勿當成投資之參考, 更勿複製也不可用於交易目的或諮詢!

2009年1月28日 星期三

Nek Italy Pop Star, His Radio Of Blog

    Nek was born in Sassuolo, a small town in the province of Modena.In 1992 he released his first album as a soloist, but it wasn’t until 1996 that he achieved international fame. In 1997 he made his debut album in Spanish, titled "Nek". In 2005, he released a new album "Una Parte Di Me" that yielded the #1 Italian hit "Lascia che io sia". Nek participated in the Italian Live 8 concert on July 2, 2005, at the Circus Maximus, Rome, Italy. On November 17th 2006, he released his new album "Nella Stanza 26", whose first single was called "Instabile".

( 最美的女人 )Top Beautiful 13 Women In 2009 I love from AskMen.com

    女人是這星球最美麗的生命,她的微笑可以讓男人呼吸。The women is most beautiful and sweet living object in earth, I selected the top beautiful women of 2009 from web as blog entertainment for friend visist here, you can shout out for those women here;

Taylor Alison Swift born December 13, 1989, she is an American female country-pop singer. She has a beautiful eye, charming smiles and sexy shape of body with a romantic female voice to attract the men; I think to be a famous country pop singer, her beautiful characteristic is also a point to her fan.

Kate Beckinsale born in Finsbury Park, London 26 July 1973 is an English actress, known for her roles in the films Pearl Harbor (2001), Underworld (2003); she attracted me on several movies such as Click (2006), Underworld (2003) and Pearl Harbor (2001); I never forgot her smiles and tenderness in each movie.

Julianne Hough born July 20, 1988 is an American professional ballroom dancer and country music singer. She is most-widely known for her repeated appearances on ABC's program, Dancing with the Stars, which she won twice. She earned a Creative Arts Primetime Emmy nomination in 2007 for her choreography.
She is very beautiful, charming thanks to her dance and life style.

Audrina Patridge born May 9, 1985 is an American reality television personality, Audrina Patridge launched her acting career when she scored the lead role of Kelsea in Into the Blue 2: The Reef, the sequel to the 2005 hit Jessica Alba movie Into the Blue.

Cheryl Tweedy, born 30 June 1983 is a British singer and member of the band Girls Aloud. As part of Girls Aloud and as a featuring artist.

Paz Campos Trigo born January 2, 1976, better known as Paz Vega, is a Spanish actress.

Evangeline Lilly born August 3, 1979 is a Canadian Golden Globe-nominated actress. She is known for her role as Kate Austen in the ABC drama Lost.

Marisa Miller born August 6, 1978 is an American model best known for her appearances in the Sports Illustrated Swimsuit Issues, and her work for lingerie retailer Victoria's Secret.

Naomi Ellen Watts born 28 September 1968 is a British-Australian actress. She is known for her roles in Mulholland Drive, the film remakes of The Ring, King Kong, Funny Games and her Academy Award-nominated role in the film 21 Grams.

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2009年1月26日 星期一

2009 2月份 ETF 投資操作模擬 1 (2009 Feb ETF Investment simulation 1)

    Due to the my investment optimization need, I use the Google finance, Yahoo finance API to create some simulation for ETF investment operation and calculate its performance to find the best algorithm in trading; 
    It is my personal simulation, the current display of investment % is a fixed % model, it will modify each month, the dynamic investmnet % will be my internal reference. The selection of those ETF as a target ETF for the investment % to adjust is coming from several reason, one of most important reason is those ETF will not have a big fall from Jan/26th to Feb/26th, second reason is the ETF set has its combination effect to minimize the investmemt risk, so we add new back up "2009 Feb ETF Set 2" to optimize the trade performance if some ETF cannot trade in 2009 Feb ETF Set 1  due to Dow drop below the support on Jan/30th .
所有測試 Google Spreadsheet, Google Finance API 與 Google Web computing server 之表格, 屬於 自己投資與Web computing 計劃之參考, 請勿當成投資之參考, 更勿複製也不可用於交易目的或諮詢!

2009年1月24日 星期六

2009 2月份 ETF 投資 ( ETF Investment on Feb. 2009 )

   2009 2月份 ETF 投資是自己分析研究之項目,希望能運用定指標、多類型ETF、多元化資金比率來達到穩定安全投資績效. 2009 第一季之情況是:
  1. 美國與歐洲仍然有突發金融業之利空;(US, Europe finance will continue to have the crisis )
  2. 美國持續舉債來解決銀行、保險公司及公司資金之問題,引發美元價值疑慮;( US Gov. raise too much debt induce the value of US dollar degradation )
  3. OPEC及蘇俄等產油國將再度減產以維繫油價防止虧損;( Opec and Russia will continue to reduce the volume of production for keeping the price of crude oil in response to US dollar degradation )
  4. OBAMA替代能源將帶動農產品價格;
  5. 各產品都持續消化庫存;
  6. 各國需要舉債來促進內需經濟;
  7. 失業人數持續增加;
  8. 全世界人口持續增加;( World Wide population will continue to increase )
  9. 電子產品與汽車需求仍然疲軟;
  10. 中國、日本持續增加美債,黃金避險需求增加快速;(China, Japen continue to buy US Gov. Bond)

基本上,我選擇 GLD、DGP、SKF、DBA、DBC、USO, DIG 多元化資金比率運用定指標來制定投資,讓投資多元化資金比率定指標運用像一支基金一樣在經營;由於還有許多美國與歐洲金融業之大型利空,SKF ETF UltraShort Financials ProShares 是來對抗美國與歐洲銀行、保險公司持續之倒閉利空;GLD 與 DGP是對等於買黃金對抗美債增長太多所引起之『避險』,而DBA、DBC 是呼應全世界人口持續增加,DIG 是呼應 OPEC及蘇俄等產油國將再度減產以維繫油價防止虧損, DIG 內含 Gas 部份蘇俄已經漲價所以 DIG 比 USO 強勢;

<< English Translation >>

2009 Feb ETF investment is their analysis of the project, hoping to use to set targets and a wide range of ETF, the rate of diversification of funding to achieve a stable and secure investment performance. The situation in the first quarter of 2009 is:
  1. The United States and Europe there are still unexpected bad financial industry; (US, Europe finance will continue to have the crisis) 
  2. The United States continued to address the debt of banks, insurance companies and corporate funding problems, the value of the dollar sparked concerns; (US Gov. Raise too much debt induce the value of US dollar degradation) 
  3. OPEC and other oil-producing countries and the Soviet Union will once again in order to sustain oil production tprevent a loss; (Opec and Russia will continue to reduce the volume of production for keeping the price of crude oil in response to US dollar degradation) 
  4. OBAMA alternative energy sources will drive the prices of agricultural products; 
  5. Continued to digest the product inventory; 
  6. Borrowing countries need to promote domestic economy; 
  7. Continued increase in the number of unemployed people; 
  8. The world's population continued to increase; (World Wide population will continue to increase) 
  9. Demand for electronic products and motor vehicles are still weak; 
  10. China, Japan, the United States continued to increase debt, gold hedge rapid increase in demand; (China, Japen continue to buy US Gov. Bond) 
Basically, I chose to GLD, DGP, SKF, DBA, DBC, DIG diversified funds rate to use to set targets to develop investment, so that investors can diversify the use of the funds rate as an indicator of operating funds; as a result of the United States and there are many large European financial industry bad, SKF ETF UltraShort Financials ProShares is against the United States and European banks, insurance companies continue to close down the bad; GLD and DGP is equivalent to gold against the United States to buy too much debt caused by the growth of hedge 『』, and DBA, DBC is the world's population continued to increase response, DIG is echoed and the Soviet Union and other OPEC oil producers will cut production to maintain oil prices once again to prevent the loss, DIG containing Gas prices part of the Soviet Union has been so strong DIG than the USO;;

上面表格集合這部拉格之美國 ETF(ETF for US)、亞洲 ETF(Asia ETF)、歐洲拉美其他區域(Europe, Latin, Other ETF)、債券 ETF(Bond ETF)、能源物資 ETF(Energy, Goods ETF)、 做空避險 ETF(Shrot ETF)、 貨幣 ETF(Currency ETF),再對照 Yahoo Finance,Google Finance, holding(持股)及自動建議表,就可以加速選擇到自己要投資之標的。

貨幣 ETF 分析 (Currency, Gold ETF Relation Analysis)

最近一個月研究國際貨幣ETF, 黃金ETF, 貨幣ETF有配息手續費低之優點讓, 我喜歡它能用較低成本做外匯避險。

所有測試 Google Spreadsheet, Google Finance API 與 Google Web computing server 之表格, 屬於 自己投資與Web computing 計劃之參考, 請勿當成投資之參考, 更勿複製也不可用於交易目的或諮詢!

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2009年1月19日 星期一

Crude Oil ETF ( 原油 ETF )

    油價平均世界歷史價格是 27$ USD/Barrel,被稀釋美元之油價有可能低於 30$ USD/Barrel 嗎?OPEC、俄羅斯與南美有可能賠錢賣油嗎? 我實在很懷疑,以美國、中國、德國、日本、法國GDP 既使衰退, 全世界石油需求回到十年前需要嗎? 
    這隨便想也知道這是有問題,油國不可能賠錢賣油,低油價不利 OBAMA 替代能源建設,低油價也不利全世界經濟成長,如果再參考世界原油需求,這次原油需求下降頂多3%,又一過量生產而超跌?所以,油國成本是關鍵,而全世界經濟成長之關鍵也不是超低油價,更何況,全世界已經沒有新的大原油井,意味新油田開發成本高於舊油田許多,油價不可能再那麼低。
    如果你有興趣分析原油成本,2009 將有低檔因為OPEC、俄羅斯不可能賠錢賣油,所以相關 ETF 值得我們注意, 當然它適合投資方式也不一樣。
    If You are interesting with analysis of crude oil cost, you will find that it will close to lower point in 2009 due to OPEC and Russia will not produce the crude oil less than their cost; we can check it from relative ETF like USO, DIG and DBC chart carefully;(It will automatically update each day).

Bond ETF Chart ( 債券 ETF 技術K線 )

From Q4 2008 to Feb. 2009, most important investment target is Bond ETF, there are many kind of bond ETFs we can choose, we need to select most secure one such as Gov. relative Bond ETF; All chart listed below for my self-reference; (It will automatically update each day).

2009年1月18日 星期日

歐元未來與世界各大貨幣面臨問題 ( 美債泡沫? 弱勢美元? )

2009 開始大家面對的美國華爾街金融風暴, 使得背負巨額債務的美元逐漸喪失國際主要流通貨幣地位,美元長線每況愈下,美元呈現反彈然而美債越來越高,美國國債高達53兆美元,加上商業及民間債務約156兆美元,而美國1年國內生產毛額GDP約13.6兆美元,美國政府只能不斷新舊債換新債與降低利率,引導債券值利率下降,來減緩高債息支付之拖垮風險,就實際操作面考慮金融風暴後:

  1. 美元指數反彈期間,最強勢貨幣不是美元,日圓最強, 黃金次之與歐元最弱;
  2. 美元指數高點振盪期間,日圓最強,黃金次之與歐元最弱;
  3. 美元指數振盪後段期間,日圓最強,黃金開始反彈之與歐元低檔走平;
  4. 美元指數回跌期間,黃金強力反彈,日圓高點振盪回跌與歐元走平反彈;
  5. 美元指數再小幅反彈期間,黃金反彈高點振盪回跌,日圓高點振盪與歐元低檔振盪;
  6. 美元指數再走弱初期期間,黃金反彈,歐元低檔振盪反彈與日圓走弱; 2009/1/16

基本上,美元、日圓、歐元與黃金,對於它們之間關係還蠻複雜,由金融風暴後美元、日圓、歐元與黃金趨勢看來,美元對黃金、日圓、歐元不是那麼容易像 USD(t) = A*Gold(t) + B*Yen(t) + C*Euro(t) 可以解釋的通,但是,可以確認如果2009年2、3季第2波破壞性更大的金融海嘯再來襲,保險契約的信用違約交換(CDS)等金融衍生商品市場危機再爆發,歐元與黃金變成非常重要,日本與中國政府如何處理不讓日幣與人民幣大升之方法: 再度買歐元並增加避險之黃金部位,而歐洲對抗這趨勢之方式是持續降息。所以,歐元經濟區早晚將成為新消費經濟型態。

     其實,在我們也可以參考與美元強弱相關之 currency ETF 技術K圖,它可以讓我們用 currency ETF與它的 Option 避險 : 『以下圖參考Yahoo.fiance,每日自動更新』

2009年1月15日 星期四


    美國金融業利空頻傳,加上2009年一開始,美國幾家大型銀行就傳出營運問題, Citigroup(C-US) 的未來遭到質疑,分析師也對 Bank of America(BAC-US)和 HSBC(HSBA-UK)表示疑慮,才渡過艱辛的2008年的金融業,最壞的情況恐還未出現。聯準會(Fed) 已想盡辦法寬鬆貨幣,美國政府提撥的7000億美元「問題資產援助計畫」(TARP)將有助於修補一些傷害。2008年的流動性措施有遲延效應,應會在未來幾個月顯現。
    美國投資銀行雷曼倒閉已經讓臺灣金融業與股票族賠大錢,美國商業銀行、美國保險公司極可能還會有大風險,臺灣銀行與保險業必須分散、避險與勿輕信美國銀行之保證,沒有抵押資產談甚麼保證?所有與美國商業銀行、美國保險公司之合約盡可能再仔細研究,能贖回盡量贖回。避險部份可以使用許多SKF ETF、UYG ETF等產品之Option來執行,避險成本不高,缺點是無法做高於5億之避險,高金額之避險也可能是另一種CDS,問題誰願意承接。
    為什麼我這麼講臺灣金融業『能贖回盡量贖回』,因為,美國CDS市場已經29.2 ~ 33.6兆與CDO市場也已經2.0兆,而且,金融信用違約率已經由房貸延伸至車貸、消費貸款,如果美國政府無法使信用違約率下降或是還有如AIG的CDS金融原子彈,極可能臺灣金融業投資之美國相關金融商品會再度如雷曼連動債災難,台灣經過雷曼連動債災難後,如果再受到美國相關金融商品大跌之拖累,許多臺灣金融業也可能重傷不治。



2009年1月14日 星期三


  1. 利率已經降到趨近於零、
  2. 政府購入多達6000億美元次貸相關證券的行動也已經展開、
  3. Obama 政府正針對7750億美元的減稅方案,與在未來兩年增加政府支出的方案與國會協商、
問題緊接著許多公司債到期,將又幾千億美元公司債洞要處理,面臨全世界需求下降,意味許多公司必須面臨縮編制、合併或倒閉各種產業重整局面。許多學者都以 『從日本失落10年學教訓 美國想救經濟 更需大刀闊斧』督促Obama 政府更需要強力方案。基本上美國與日本經濟結構及國際貨幣地位角色不同,情況也不同。




  • 臺灣低利率之消費下降近通縮;
  • 臺灣金融業穫利極速下降,甚至於部份金融業可能出現問題;因為,舊長期定存利率高於現在利率太多,如是五年低利率之通縮,許多業都將有大幅虧損。
  • 全世界都低利率結果是銀行、保險業利潤會縮小許多,銀行、保險業如果增加國外高利率固定收益之投資,風險將增加。低利率之通縮環境會幫助房市,避免建設公司倒閉。但是,將導致金融業與定存族穫利縮小,轉往國外高利率固定收益之投資如連動債,加上2009國外銀行倒閉風險不低,演變成新臺灣金融風暴。


    依照實際模擬,高度儲蓄之國家因為有極大幅消費資金來至於 固定利息收益,大幅降息不利內需經濟,由其是全世界通縮陰影下之貿易需求萎縮,內需消費經濟非常重要,而且,如果超低低利率無法扭轉經濟、增加投資股市資金,將造成新的流動性風險。高度靠貸款之消費經濟國家反而受益於大幅降息,然而,臺灣情況不相同,房貸利率也無法因為央行大幅降息而降低,因此央行大幅降息效果我懷疑。

Christina Aguilera, Monica Dance & Soul On Web 2.0 Radio

     I like the dance & Soul from Britney Spears, Christina Aguilera, Monica, Sade and so on; Hope everyone rock, dance with soul in 2009; no matter where you are, always bless you have a lovely and fruitful 2009;

Lyrics of "Hurt"

Seems like it was yesterday when I saw your face
You told me how proud you were but I walked away
If only I knew what I know today

I would hold you in my arms
I would take the pain away
Thank you for all you've done
Forgive all your mistakes
There's nothing I wouldn't do
To hear your voice again
Sometimes I want to call you but I know you won't be there

I'm sorry for blaming you for everything I just couldn't do
And I've hurt myself by hurting you
Some days I feel broke inside but I won't admit
Sometimes I just want to hide 'cause it's you I miss
You know it's so hard to say goodbye when it comes to this

Would you tell me I was wrong?
Would you help me understand?
Are you looking down upon me?
Are you proud of who I am?
There's nothing I wouldn't do
To have just one more chance
To look into your eyes and see you looking back

I'm sorry for blaming you for everything I just couldn't do
And I've hurt myself
If I had just one more day, I would tell you how much that
I've missed you since you've been away

Oh, it's dangerous
It's so out of line to try to turn back time

I'm sorry for blaming you for everything I just couldn't do
And I've hurt myself

By hurting you

Hurt 這首歌描寫了一個失去了父親的孩子跨時空的傾訴。 整首歌充滿了一種非常悲情的調子,把一個因為突然毫無預兆的失去了親人而感到無比懊悔的心情刻畫地很到位,歌曲的配器非常簡單,簡單的弦樂配器,鋼琴,小提琴時不時出現在間奏中,所有的這些氣氛就是為了突出Christina的聲音,Christina的聲音優勢和演唱技巧在這首歌曲中淋漓盡致地顯示出來,無論是高音中音,還是顫音托音的演唱巧妙絕佳。

珍惜親人 不景氣中 把“愛與時間”付給親人 當沒甚麼物質享受之驚奇時 你的親人與愛人才是你值得珍惜

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2009年1月13日 星期二

美國公債將面對的問題 ? ( 美債泡沫? 弱勢美元? )

USD index!

USD index!


  • 第一個: 一九二○年代末期的泡沫,也是最為嚴重的一個:破滅之後,除了導致了美國的﹁經濟大恐慌﹂(Great Depression)之外,全球的經濟景氣也因而飽受打擊。
  • 第二個: 一九九○年代末期所引發的另一場網路泡沫之際,當時美國的聯邦準備理事會(Fed)主席亞倫‧葛林斯班(Alan Greenspan)為了避免讓美國重蹈日本金融泡沫破滅的覆轍,於是趕緊大降息幅:當時其貨幣政策之具有彈性,打破了中央銀行以對抗通膨天職的一種傳統,貨幣政策在葛林斯班的主導之下,固然是讓美國創下了其有史以來持續時間最為長久的一個繁榮期。儘管老葛因而讓美國的經濟景氣免於衰退,不過,長期性的寬鬆貨幣政策,豈料,後來卻又引發了美國有史以來規模最為龐大的住宅型房地產市場的泡沫現象。
  • 第三個: 二○○八年 美國﹁次級抵押房貸﹂風暴演變成股市、房市與金融信用泡沫,有些經濟專家開始指出,當前美國住屋房地產市場泡沫破滅現象,與當年日本金融泡沫破滅的情形,著實也有著令人擔憂之處。實際上是不一樣,日本當年民間儲蓄率與儲蓄累計資金非常高,而美國現在民間儲蓄率非常低,日本當年出口經濟比重非常高,而美國以往是依賴消費經濟與進口。因此,是否引發美債泡沫成為下一觀察指標。

     導致美國必須增加非常多國債來滋潤經濟,當增加太多國債就有形成美債流動性危機與泡沫問題,連帶美金國際經濟也被危及,所以,美聯儲必須去操作美元與利率,為大量製造美元換取資金創造機會,為美國債將逼近 3 ~ 3.5兆不致產生『美元信心危機』。

    其實,任何舉債都有上限,這也是為什麼 羅傑斯直斷:全球經濟衰頹 美公債持有國將逐步減持部位 ,國際知名投資專家Jim Rogers(羅傑斯)周一接受媒體訪問時表示,隨著經濟危機持久不退,許多持有美國債權的國家可能開始規避其資產,尤其是國庫券(Treasuries)。根據Rogers的看法:「所有大型(美國公債)持有人將逐步刪減部位、多角化分配資產及規避美元-包括長期債券。」

    這裡美聯儲必須操作美元匯率,利率與發行新債之時間,以吸引資金配合經濟步道,問題是擁有較多美債時,不可能不避險。這也是我注意黃金、穀物與石油 對 日圓、美元與歐元 關係,了解投資趨勢。

2009年1月11日 星期日

美元消費經濟之結束、走弱? ( 美債泡沫? 弱勢美元? )

USD index!

日圓終將突破成為"美元消費經濟之結束"之"代罪羔羊"? 完全毀滅日本出口經濟



分析結果是 極可能這是一個美國消費經濟時代的結束與轉變期,就像地球磁場磁極轉變一樣,它是慢慢形成,如同婦人臨盆那一陣一陣的疼痛,經過戰爭與慌亂,時代才慢慢形成,大家才能看見新嬰兒誕生快樂。

檢視航運、原料、能源了解世界經濟局面 (Review shipping, raw materials, energy, understand the world economic situation)

為了更了解世界經濟需求面,除了已經由主要股票營收數字知道,其中食、衣、地產、通信、交通、消費性產品、醫藥中,以食、通信、與醫藥衰退較小,電子消費性產品受影響到程度非常大。由DBC ETF 與 DBI / Curde Oil Price 指標更看出通縮面貌。

問題是人們真的突然間都不消費了嗎? 冬季不是用更多油與瓦斯? 

油價有一部份是2008 12月前過量生產,造成過量;現在經濟蕭條,汽車業大衰退更說明油需求下降,需要減產。

大豆、小麥價格強烈反彈,說明人們活動基本需要仍然維持,食、通信屬於人基本需要,交通能節約就節約,問題這還是不能解釋為什麼許多行運指標也縮減這麼多?只剩 約10% 怎麼可能? 過去人們航運需求都來至衣、地產材料、能源與消費性產品,怎麼可能? 不可能降這麼低?(可參考全球貿易量)。

全球貿易大幅下滑: 據美國商務部週二公佈的數據﹐去年7-11月這四個月期間﹐世界第一大經濟體美國的月度進出口總額從近3,980億美元降至3,260億美元﹐降幅18%。進口額的下滑佔了其中的三分之二﹐這也解釋了很多依賴對美貿易的國家受到衝擊的原因。由於美國消費者和企業支出不斷下降﹐在這些國家﹐作為經濟增長重要推動力的出口正在減少。



而黃金價格強烈反彈,主因美元弱勢沒有反應在 美元指數,所以,集中於黃金、日圓之強勢,造成失真的美元指數年代。

所有圖參考 InvestmentTools.com 

In order to dig a better understanding of the world economy, in addition to revenue from the main stock figures, we know that food, clothing, communications, medicine and food with smaller recession, electronic consumer products affected to a great extent in this recession. By DBC ETF with DBI / Curde Oil Price index to see the face of deflation.

The problem is all of a sudden people are really not spending moeny on those product? even, it is not more oil and gas spending in winter? 

Oil prices are a part of 2008 the over-production before December of 2008, resulting in excessive; now an economic slump, automotive industry, the recession has further illustrated that the oil demand falls dramatically, so it needs to cut the crude oil production volume continually. )

2009年1月9日 星期五

由12月營收了解臺灣與世界經濟 (Understanding Taiwan Economic From Sample Revenue)

針對經濟學人預估台灣今年經濟成長率為 -2.9%,經濟部次長施顏祥今 (9)日重申,政府的目標是2.5%,與經濟學人相差5.4%,約可換算成新台幣6000億元的國民生產總值缺口;我真的為臺灣擔憂因為許多利多政策似乎還沒有打中真正衰退的部份,所以,自己將臺灣經濟成長率真正衰退部份計算一下,其中,12月營收年增:

臺積電、日月光分別衰退 55.01%及58.86%;
友達、奇美電分別衰退 69.9%及65.7%;
台塑, 台化分別衰退 42.9%及53.3%;
台塑化 衰退 61.4%;
中華電 衰退 0.46%;
台橡 衰退 0.46%;
統一 衰退 5.37%;


臺積電、日月光分別 100.2%及77.4%;
友達、奇美電分別 183.6%及186.6%;
台塑, 台化分別 105%及126%;
台塑化 是 146%;
中華電 是 8.98%;
台橡 是 92.5%;
統一 是 5.37%;

這裡最重要是 臺積電新製程產能增加 友達、奇美電擴廠產能大幅增加與台塑化因油價大幅下跌產生營收差距部份,也就是說電子產業產能增加超過太多無法承受金融海嘯後需求減半情況,更說明政府消費卷與公共建設必須針對電子與塑化產業,尤其是電子產業 因為它也直接影響到金融安全,只要電子產業穩住金融產業安全就無虞。

至於,臺灣必須有優良有差異化之觀光產業 老人觀光、 國際藝術分管觀光、 養老觀光,總之,政府必須有許多激勵方案讓企業主願意投資觀光業吸引外國養老觀光,以彌補臺灣流失之人口所產生之內需經濟衰退問題。必須由觀光產業、國際網路服務與國際服務業取代原來失去之工廠。


何時景氣恢復呢? 其實只要政府政策對 景氣會提前恢復。以電子業預估約在今年8月會回溫,營收年增率將於11月~12月出現正成長。前提是美國景氣沒有再大幅惡化。