Journal Of Life: 貨幣

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2016年4月8日星期五

IMF特別提款權貨幣(SDR)將取代美元，成為主要的外匯存底貨幣：將來全球儲備貨幣將改變 ( IMF SDR will make inference to USD position ? )

The IMF Confirms China Yuan Inclusion In SDR Basket At 10.92% Weight, Above JPY And GBP

IMF 將大幅降低 SDR 美元比重

The IMF reviews the composition of the basket every five years. The fund rejected the yuan for inclusion during the last review, in 2010, saying the currency didn’t meet the necessary criteria. But now...

IMF APPROVES ADDING YUAN TO RESERVE-CURRENCY BASKET
IMF SAYS YUAN TO JOIN SDR BASKET EFFECTIVE OCT. 1, 2016
IMF SAYS YUAN MEETS `FREELY USABLE' STANDARD
IMF STATEMENT DOESN'T SPECIFY WEIGHTING OF YUAN IN SDR BASKET
IMF SAYS CHINA IS EXPECTED TO HELP FACILITATE USE OF SDR
LAGARDE: ADDING YUAN RECOGNIZES CHINA'S PROGRESS ON REFORMS
LAGARDE SAYS CHINA TO IMPLEMENT MORE FINANCIAL REFORMS
IMF: YUAN TRADING UP SIGNIFICANTLY IN 2 OF 3 MAJOR TIME ZONES

Reuters then reports,

CHINA'S RENMINBI TO HAVE WEIGHTING OF 10.92 PCT IN IMF'S BENCHMARK SDR CURRENCY BASKET
Which is less than the 14-16% expectation (but nationalistically greater than Japan's Yen and Britain's Pound)...

But, as Bloomberg details, there are 4 critical points...

SDR status doesn’t require central banks to hold yuan but could be a catalyst for portfolio reallocation.
Reserve managers for countries having strong trade and funding ties with China have the strongest incentive to increase yuan holdings.
Reallocations by central banks may be gradual to minimize disadvantageous market pricing.
Reallocations by private investors will be constrained until capital controls are lifted and transparency improves.

However, as Bloomberg concludes, the ability (and risks) are near-term constraints on any major re-allocations.

The willingness to hold more yuan and less dollars is one thing; the ability to execute is quite another. At the moment, the ability of private foreign investors to increase their yuan allocation is limited by China’s capital controls. There are special arrangements for foreign central banks that give them enhanced access to China’s foreign exchange and interbank bond markets.

IMF 未公開文件是將人民幣增加15%，問題是中國外匯並不自由有管制，恐怕只是佔全世界便宜

Another hurdle for expanding yuan holdings is the perception of a lack of transparency and market manipulation by the Chinese authorities. Until access and perceptions change, these factors will slow the flow into the yuan. The depth and security of U.S. government bonds may also constrain switches out of dollar assets.

Finally we could not help but see the irony in the fact that today The IMF accepts the Yuan into the 'free market' currency basket just a day after what appeared to be a huge intervention in the offshore Yuan market...

Central banks tend to adjust reserve allocations slowly, so as not to pit market pricing against them. This suggests a steady gradual stream of demand for yuan assets over time. Until portfolio rebalancing is complete, dollar rallies may be short-lived as these may be seen as attractive opportunities for investors in both the public and private domain to trim dollar exposure.
As finally, before everyone gets too excited - The history of yen internationalization offers a cautionary tale on hopes for the yuan.

真相或陰謀論？美元體制將崩解、中俄囤金為危機作準備

中國、俄國央行狂買黃金，知名作者Jim Rickards提出陰謀論觀點解釋，預言以美元為主的全球貨幣體制瀕臨崩盤，國際貨幣秩序即將重組，中俄囤金，正是為了危機爆發預做準備。
MarketWatch、TruNews 報導，Rickards曾撰寫知名暢銷書《下一波全球貨幣大崩潰》(The Death of Money)，他在新書《The New Case for Gold》預言，全球對美元失去信心，將導致貨幣秩序崩解，當前僅剩國際貨幣基金組織(IMF)擁有乾淨的資產負債表，IMF特別提款權貨幣(SDR)將取代美元，成為主要的外匯存底貨幣。各國擁金自重，是為了在重新制定規則時，取得更多發話權。

書中指出，各國增持黃金，分散外匯存底部位，形成影子金本位制。歐元區持有黃金佔GDP比重最高，超過4%。美國為2.7%、俄國也是2.7%。俄國正全力蒐購黃金，想超越美國、趕上歐元區。另外，2015年7月中國公布黃金持有量為1,658噸，外界多認為北京持有黃金可能接近4,000噸，並持續增加當中。

Rickards 認為，等到貨幣秩序瓦解，國際改寫規則時，黃金就像賭桌上的籌碼一般，哪國持有越多、份量越重，將成為新貨幣秩序的主導者。他預估，新秩序將由美國、德國、俄國、中國制定。中國兩國囤金，正是為此預作準備。

英國金融時報、路透社3月31日報導，全球地緣政治風險日益緊繃、再加上外匯存底分散需求日增，促使全球央行趁著低價在去(2015)年大舉購入黃金，收購量多達483公噸、創金本位制結束以來的次高紀錄。根據湯森路透黃金礦業服務公司(Thomson Reuters GFMS)統計，俄羅斯與西方國家的關係日益緊張，為了把外匯存底從美元分散出去，該國已連續第4年成為全球最大黃金買家，去年收購量增加了206公噸。

中國去年下半年也大買104公噸的黃金，使黃金儲備量上升至1,742公噸，與俄羅斯成為去年最主要的黃金買主。

分析

從貨幣、黃金ETF及全球貿易看，仍然要經歷3年以上時間，美元才會完全結束高檔；
GLD ETF 趨勢看，黃金上升及美元高檔是再來情況，IMF 將人民幣增加比重，問題是中國外匯並不自由有管制，很難有實際作用；
IMF特別提款權貨幣(SDR)將取代美元，成為主要的外匯存底貨幣：將來全球儲備貨幣將改變，但以全球貿易實力及中國外匯並不自由，5年內全球仍難以改變美元是主要全球貿易貨幣，加上中國加入IMF，中國大陸卻不守住人民幣，也就是說中國大陸比想像中脆弱許多，人民幣下跌是全球最大風險，後來又靠中國外匯加強管制才又守住人民幣，IMF這些動作義意不大，歐元區也無法靠 Euro 特別提款權貨幣(SDR)之比重升高來維繫歐元，因為歐元問題是天生的；
人類資本主義金融之貨幣系統已經演變成支撐全球經濟成長關鍵，然而，全球債務已經超過50兆美元之今日，既使印鈔來轉移債務泡沫，貨幣之信心需要靠黃金來支撐已經是再次印鈔需要之要件，這改革需要 IMF 一籃子貨幣加上黃金來支撐貨幣信心，但這改革還是要外匯自由貨幣來支撐，不可能靠有管制之人民幣及不穩定歐元；

2012年2月8日星期三

貨幣 ETF 及黃金 ETF 分析與評論 ( Currency ETF, Gold ETF analysis and comment )

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Currencies Technical Update ( 貨幣之技術分析 )

Below are three charts of the AUD, EUR and USD all of which are sitting at key levels and could break hard either way.

AUD/USD ( 澳幣/美元 )

An inverted head and shoulder’s pattern is currently breaking out bullishly fueled partly by the RBA deciding to leave interest rates unchanged. How this holds overnight and into the coming session will be interesting. What is also interesting is while I type this post the AUD is up .7% (and EUR/AUD down .9%) while equity futures are flat.The fact that these currency cannot put a bid into equity futures is rather interesting to say the least. ( 澳幣/美元是多頭，澳洲利率不變 )

USD (UUP) ( 美元 ETF )

For those new to currencies the USD unlike other currencies is also measured against a basket of currencies as captured by the symbol DXY. Notice the support and resistance levels this currency has traded within. A narrowing wedge in many ways defined by two different chart patterns. ( 我用 UUP 圖講解較佳，目前將延則下降趨勢及下擋支撐小幅振盪 )

EUR/USD ( 歐元/美元 )

I had to pull up a five year weekly chart to show just how vulnerable the EUR is right now. It has tried to find support at the 2005 uptrend but the bounce has been very weak. Not a bullish sign that this trend line will hold. If it fails notice on the chart how little support remains beneath it (points A and B).
The move could be rather breathtaking to say the least. As a reminder recent Commitment of Trader data would value the EUR at 1.20. ( 我使用週線分析歐元，仍屬弱勢往歐元/美元 1.2 趨近 )

影響黃金市場之因素 ( The Inference Factors of Gold Trend In 2012 )

Gold production cost will increase a lot after 3 years, this is another major inference factor to gold.

分析

今年影響因素增加，幾乎由地緣政治、能源、美債泡沫至歐美如何發新債與印鈔之問題，因此，技術分析派之影響因素下降，其他影響因素上升。( Major inference factor of gold price from political 、energy 、 currency bubble and war, not from gold price chart technical analysis )
中東政局不安之因素上升，加上美國總統奧巴馬（ Barack Obama ）選舉，美國與伊朗緊張局勢而未進入戰爭或伊朗逼迫美、英、德、中、日須以武力對制也對奧巴馬（ Barack Obama ）選舉有利，也對美國經濟有幫助。( Obviously, that Obama can get advantage to keep this tension of Iran on hand to benefit his president election )
中、印、俄對黃金增加儲備是另一影響因素。( Many countries increase its money reserve to gold )
歐、美印鈔是影響因素之一。( Printing money to help Enterprise is needed for capitalism to grow )
歐、美利率仍低，美聯儲已經宣佈至2014都維持低利率。( Low interesting rate is a inference to boost gold and economic )
最後影響因素是黃金生產成本，如上圖2012Q1 我預估黃金生產成本應該約 720$/OZ ，依預估至2015 黃金生產成本約 920$/OZ ，低於黃金生產成本之1.2倍價格，礦產公司會減產。( Cumulative production cost of gold will ramp up a lot, I estimated that gold production cost will increase to 920$/OZ in 2015 )
目前仍屬強勢。

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2016年4月8日 星期五

IMF特別提款權貨幣(SDR)將取代美元，成為主要的外匯存底貨幣： 將來全球儲備貨幣將改變 ( IMF SDR will make inference to USD position ? )

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2012年2月8日 星期三

貨幣 ETF 及 黃金 ETF 分析與評論 ( Currency ETF, Gold ETF analysis and comment )