2013年2月27日 星期三

台灣第一季經濟成長率真能超過 2.6% 嗎?怎麼自已預估台灣經濟成長率?

GDP (PPP) Per Capita based on 2008 estimates h...
GDP (PPP) Per Capita based on 2008 estimates http://www.imf.org/ (Photo credit: Wikipedia)
2011 ~ 2012 經濟成長模型

在支撐經濟成長的C(消費)、I(投資)、G(政府)、X-M(貿易順差)之中,請参考下表,X-M(貿易順差)含海外營餘占 31%、外資投資占 13.8%、內需消費含房產建材占40.6%、政府支出占12.4%,公司貿易順差含海外營餘 + 外資投資 + 內需消費含房產建材就占整體 GDP 85.4%;
  • GDP : 4660億美元,約台幣 13.79兆;
  • 第四季GDP年成長率是 1.225%
  • 第四季GDP季成長率是 3.7%

科技產品淡季 外銷訂單減5.7%

科技產品淡季效應,1月外銷訂單較上月減5.7%!經濟部最新調查指出,1月外銷訂單總金額371.4億美元,主因為科技產品淡季效應及新舊品交替影響,較上月減少22.6億美元(減5.7%)。但與上年同月相比,增加56.5億美元(增18.0%),因受到去年1月逢農曆春節比較基期較低所致。

經濟部表示,1月外銷訂單因手持裝置等科技產品淡季效應及新舊品交替影響,致前三大接單貨品均較上月明顯減少,惟傳統貨品接單表現較佳。包括資訊通信產品92.4億美元,較上月減少12.6%;電子產品86.5億美元,較上月減少4.7%;精密儀器產品27.3億美元,較上月減少13.5%,主因為電視面板調節庫存及NB面板需求減少所影響。

另一方面,只有傳統貨品接單表現較佳,包括塑膠及橡膠製品較上月增加,而化學品、基本金屬、機械,以及電機產品也較上月略減。

此外,經濟部指出,因農曆春節假期工作天數減少,預計2月接單金額較1月減少。因去年1月及2月外銷訂單基數偏低,預計本年累計1至2月接單金額將較上年同期呈正成長。

在主要國家訂單方面,中國大陸及香港、美國、歐洲之訂單較上月減少,只有東協六國及日本較上月增加。中國大陸及香港訂單93.9億美元,較上月減少1.0億美元,以精密儀器產品減少2.6億美元最多;美國訂單90.3億美元,較上月減少9.6億美元,以資訊通信產品之接單減16.6%較多,電子產品亦減5.2%;歐洲訂單71.8億美元,較上月減少14.0億美元,以資訊通信產品及電子產品之接單各減16.2%及21.5%較多。

另外,東協六國訂單42.2億美元,較上月增加1.1億美元,以機械接單增加1.0億美元為最多。日本訂單31.4億美元,較上月增加0.5億美元,以其他貨品(含油品)增加0.7億美元較多。


因消費力下滑,今年1月餐飲業營收表現普遍不如

觀光類股1月營收出爐,因消費力下滑加上去年1月份春節基期高,今年1月餐飲業營收表現普遍不如去年同期,與上月相比也多呈下滑趨勢,不過王品(2727)、瓦城、國賓等業者表示,今年春節餐飲表現不俗,對第1季表現仍持樂觀態度。


分析
  • 經濟成長模型:
    • C(消費) :會因股市上漲轉好,但因油電雙漲而轉弱,以持平微上揚,加上奢侈稅對房市衝擊,台灣 300萬勞工長期在大陸及東南亞,一月份觀光業營收大部分衰退看,消費部份應該還是持平;
    • X-M(貿易順差) : 因第一季較 2012 Q4 衰退,油進口支出油價上揚而增加,貿易順差會減少或持平;
    • G(政府) :政府支出與投資持平;
    • I(投資) :FDI 外資及台商投資部份,第一季外資及台商投資之金額應該是較重要部分;
  • 整體觀察台灣第一季經濟成長率需超過 2.6%,否則,全年經濟成長率超過3.5%機率就不高。若第一季經濟成長率低於 2.6%,第二季經濟成長率極可能也將低於 2.7%,第3、4季就必須高於4.95%,2013 經濟成長才能達到 3.8%;因此,全民不易感覺經濟成長;
  • FDI 外資及台商投資部份,若能超過 80億美元,台灣全年經濟成長率超過3.6% ~ 3.8% 機率就提高許多;提高FDI 外資及台商投資才有機會超越 3.8% 到達 4.0%經濟成長率。
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2013年2月26日 星期二

人民幣定存利率熱戰將加速台灣外幣市場地位,有利於金融亞太營運

人幣利率戰白熱化


中國信託推出國內首檔寶島債,發行額度10億元(人民幣,下同),3年期利率2.9%,受國內法人踴躍認購。

2013/2/25
台灣 DBU(外匯指定銀行)年前開辦人民幣業務,取得人民幣資金成本較國銀低的外銀,利率戰有白熱化趨勢!繼澳盛銀行推出9個月期定存利率2.88%之後,星展銀行再加碼,推出3個月期定存2.9%。

 此外,中國信託推出國內首檔寶島債,發行額度為10億元(人民幣,下同),3年期利率為2.9%,儘管利率比香港同業略低,但受國內法人踴躍認購,而此債券也將在證券櫃檯買賣中心國際板掛牌交易。星展銀行(台灣)消費金融處處長唐正峰指出,對許多民眾來說,想要搶搭這波人民幣存款熱潮,但又想擁有投資運用彈性,因此星展推出年息高達2.38%的豐盛人民幣活存專案,讓民眾享有較高活存利率。

 而澳盛銀行9個月定存利率2.88%原本在2月22日就截止,不過該行表示,因受到顧客青睞,加碼延長優惠期間到3月29日。
2012/11/19

 星展也推出3個月期定存年利率2.9%的優利方案,限定單筆存入10萬元新資金者。渣打則主打凡辦理存款業務的民眾,可享存入現鈔手續費全免及換匯優惠。


國銀人民幣業務開放在即,不少銀行已先透過國際金融業務分行(OBU)測試水溫,祭出逼近三%高利,利誘企金客戶轉檯。銀行業者認為,若主管機關沒有「特別指示」,民眾有機會存到年息三%的人民幣。

2012/2/25

金管會副主委李紀珠今天指出,金管會將透過法規鬆綁,協助金融業者將台、港、大陸三地分行整合,建立網絡。金管會也同步開放消費金融公司、租賃公司等到大陸設點,積極協助業者,抓住人民幣商機。

李紀珠在「2012天下經濟論壇」上指出,金融產業是信心產業,不像製造業「銀貨兩訖」,不論銀行或保險,交易的是長期的信任,因此敏感度高,兩岸談判過程也比較辛苦。但自從兩岸金融監理備忘錄( MOU )簽訂後,雙方的監理機構已累積了默契和共識。她對馬政府連任後的金融業談判,感到「相當樂觀」。

香港、大陸等海外分行開戶,以授信為需求的開戶先放行,接著將開放辦理財富管理業務,屆時國人不必出國,就可直接投資人民幣計價商品,參與人民幣市場商機。這是好的策略,如果國人不必出國,就可直接投資人民幣定存,應該很有市場。

這可以增加金融業獲利,分散國人資產幣別 , 金管會做的好 ;

分析
  • 人民幣定存利率將會在 2.95% ~ 3.1% 成為人民幣熱戰之結果,前金管會副主委李紀珠的努力是有商機,且對台灣金融亞太營運幫助是很大的;仍要注意人民幣換幣成本,通常買進賣出有 0.98% ~ 0.8% 差額,既是換幣成本,所以人民幣定存只能做長,不能短線。
  • 台灣如果將人民幣定存結合5年期觀光移民,將是歐美固定收益族很好的觀光移民點,一年如能吸引10萬民歐美固定收益族觀光移民,預計對 GDP 成長有正面幫助
  • 人民幣國際化大趨勢下,台灣如果將人民幣定存做大,將是未來亞洲重要之國際貨幣營運中心之一;
  • 台灣應該要推出 人民幣/台幣 ETF ,效法美國 currency ETF,可大幅提升台灣成為亞洲國際貨幣營運中心之地位;
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2013年2月23日 星期六

Google 將運用 Google Drive、Google web apps、第三方應用程式及 Android、Chromebook 打入個人與企業市場

Google Integrates Third-Party Web Apps More Deeply Into Google Drive
許多辦公室之第三方應用程式與 Google Drive 結合

谷歌增加了一個應用程序商店,可以讓你找到的 HelloFax、SlideRocket 軟體和服務中打開 Office 文檔閱讀器的驅動器功能的第三方應用程序,如 Google drive。一旦安裝後,這些應用程序,現在住在谷歌 drive “ Create ”菜單。到現在為止,用戶不得不去通過Chrome Web Store 中找到 Google drive 功能的第三方應用程序。 Google just added the equivalent of an app store to Google Drive that lets you find Drive-enabled third-party apps like HelloFax, SlideRocket and the Open Office Document Reader right from within the service. Once installed, these apps now also live right in the Google Drive ‘Create’ menu. Until now, users had to go through the Chrome Web Store to find Drive-enabled third-party apps.

如谷歌的尼古拉斯·卡尼爾寫道:今天上午,在Google Drive SDK允許開發人員,以供用戶“谷歌文檔如何和谷歌表與 Google drive 互動的類似經驗”。目前,那裡有大約一百個網絡應用程序,使用的Google Drive SDK集成與谷歌 Drive。這種集成,例如,包括在第三方應用程序中打開文件,直接從驅動器的用戶界面,並開始新的文件從谷歌驅動器“Create”菜單,以及如何導出和轉換谷歌文檔的能力。 As Google’s Nicolas Garnier writes this morning, the Drive SDK allows developers to offer users “an experience similar to how Google Docs and Google Sheets interact with Drive.” Currently, there are about a hundred web apps that use the Drive SDK to integrate with Google Drive. This integration, for example, includes the ability to open files in a third-party app directly from the Drive UI and to start new documents from the Google Drive ‘Create’ menu, as well as ways to export and convert Google Docs.

In this new iteration of Google Docs, these third-party apps also get first billing in the ‘Create’ menu and a new “Connect Your Apps” button at the bottom of the menu puts a stronger spotlight on this slowly growing ecosystem of Drive-connected apps.

Developers who currently list their Drive-enabled apps in the Chrome Web Store won’t have to do anything new. The information will automatically be pulled into Google Drive collection.

Google drive 第三方應用程式開始有非常多辦公好用的軟體

    辦公好用的第三方應用程式是一個軟體平台最有利最快延申至企業的策略,Google 很成功的利用 Google drive 及 Chrome browser 可以去結合 Window OS、Mac OS、Android、Chromebook 打入中小企業,現在才是開始而已,已經有這麼多好用的軟體。更妙的是第三方應用程式也結合 Google Adsense 讓大家有收入;

    我喜歡的好用軟體,如下:

Gantter ( 提供計劃管理 )

   Gantter.com is the premier FREE enterprise cloud-based project scheduling application on the market that optionally integrates with Google Drive ™. Gantter features all the power of leading desktop scheduling software products without requiring user to buy or install anything - it is completely free and requires nothing but a web browser.  Gantter also allows you to easily import and open your existing Microsoft™ Project files.

Whether you are planning a complex project like a large construction project, rolling out a new website, managing a big IT project, or simply need to manage your next home renovation project, Gantter is the perfect tool for you. Gantter also provides you a gallery of project templates to help you build your schedule in a fraction of the time. Gantter’s integration with Google Drive™ allows you to easily save and open schedules directly to and from Google Drive™.

Create, edit and share mind maps online. Also works with Google Drive!
The leading online mind mapping application, MindMeister allows your team to be more innovative by providing a shared collaboration and brainstorming environment on the web. Plan projects, manage meetings and sketch out business plans online with partners and colleagues, all in real time!

- Brainstorm online with your team
- Create project outlines within minutes
- Increase innovation and creativity

MindMeister 集思廣益用

MindMeister is deeply integrated into Google Drive, allowing users to open and edit many mind map formats such as MindManager, Freemind and XMind directly from your Google Drive, and even sync their entire maps list.

MAPPING FEATURES:

  • Create, share and collaboratively edit mind maps
  • Import from Text, MindManager and Freemind
  • Export to Word, PowerPoint, PDF, image, MindManager and Freemind
  • Add icons, images, notes, links and attachments
  • Integrated live chat
  • Publish and embed maps
  • Task management and notifications
  • Offline editing and syncing
  • Unlimited undo history and replay
  • SSL encryption, automatic backups
  • Applications for Android, iPhone and iPad


AutoCAD WS  設計結構圖

View, edit, and share DWG™ drawings through your web browser with the AutoCAD WS web and mobile application. Store drawings and project files in an easy-to-access online workspace. Share and collaborate easily with others; there’s no software required, and it’s free*.

● Upload Files – Access your drawings from anywhere in the world.
● Edit Drawings – Edit DWG files in your web browser using more than 100 familiar AutoCAD commands and shortcuts.
● Go Mobile – Sync your online files and view and edit with your iPad or iPhone for a mobile CAD experience.
● Share – Set permissions and enable others to view, edit, or download drawings.
Real-Time Collaboration – Work with other users to edit the same drawing at the same time.
● Google Maps – Integrate Google Maps into your drawing to see designs in a real-world setting.

*AutoCAD WS is a free online service that provides access to online software for viewing, editing, and sharing AutoCAD designs. Free products and services are subject to the terms and conditions of the end-user license agreement that accompanies them. Autodesk reserves the right to alter product and services offerings, and specifications and pricing at any time without notice.


SlideRocket  製作投影片

The best online presentation software available today now works with Google Drive. Add SlideRocket to your Chrome tab and get start making great presentations today.

WHY USE SLIDEROCKET?

* Create stunning presentations that wow your audience
* Save and share directly from Google Drive
* Access and share your presentations anywhere
* HTML5 viewer for iPad and iPhone
* Measure message impact and audience engagement through presentation analytics
* Easily record audio on your slides enabling on demand presentations
* Add video from your library or via YouTube
* Share presentations easily via a link, or embed in a web site or blog
* Manage a library of presentations, slides and assets across the organization
* Conduct HD web meetings and share presentations in real time
* Presentations look the same on Windows, Mac and Linux
* Collaborate with your peers and build presentations together

PDFzen PDF Viewer & Editor

HTML5 PDF Viewer and Editor Free online PDF editing. Simple sharing & faxing. No strings attached.

The PDFzen Google Drive app lets you easily edit your PDFs in Google Drive. PDFzen is a free online PDF editor, and HTML5 means you can edit & share your PDFs without leaving your browser. Best of all, PDFzen is now available on the PDFs you already have stored in Google Drive.

Fill out PDF forms, sign documents, highlight text, leave comments, and even draw on the PDF. You don’t need to create an account to use PDFzen. With the PDFzen Google Drive app you can open your PDFs in PDFzen and start editing immediately - right in your browser and on the docs you already have in Google Drive.

When you are finished, you can save your edits back to Google drive, download the document as a PDF or get the link to share via email or social media. HTML5 PDF editing means PDFzen works right from the browser of your iPhone or iPad too.

Trying to go paperless? PDFZen is great for when you need to fill out a PDF form, but you are nowhere near a printer. Or if you don't think you should spend hundreds of dollars on PDF software just to use it one time. Or if you need to send your edited document as a fax and your local copy shop charges by the page.

Have PDFs on your desktop that you want to upload to PDFzen? The free deskPDF Reader integrates directly with PDFzen, so its just 1 click to immediately open your PDFs in PDFzen for quick editing & sharing. This is great for quickly publishing to the web, and collaborating with others. (deskPDF Reader is available for Windows & Mac, with Linux coming soon.)

這些好用的第三方應用程式結合 Google spreadsheet、docs、presentation、form、drawing 將形成未來新的企業軟體平台。台灣廠商須加速與 Google 合作,創造商機。

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