2016年4月8日 星期五

IMF特別提款權貨幣(SDR)將取代美元,成為主要的外匯存底貨幣: 將來全球儲備貨幣將改變 ( IMF SDR will make inference to USD position ? )

The IMF Confirms China Yuan Inclusion In SDR Basket At 10.92% Weight, Above JPY And GBP

IMF 將大幅降低 SDR 美元比重
The IMF reviews the composition of the basket every five years. The fund rejected the yuan for inclusion during the last review, in 2010, saying the currency didn’t meet the necessary criteria. But now...

  • IMF APPROVES ADDING YUAN TO RESERVE-CURRENCY BASKET
  • IMF SAYS YUAN TO JOIN SDR BASKET EFFECTIVE OCT. 1, 2016
  • IMF SAYS YUAN MEETS `FREELY USABLE' STANDARD
  • IMF STATEMENT DOESN'T SPECIFY WEIGHTING OF YUAN IN SDR BASKET
  • IMF SAYS CHINA IS EXPECTED TO HELP FACILITATE USE OF SDR
  • LAGARDE: ADDING YUAN RECOGNIZES CHINA'S PROGRESS ON REFORMS
  • LAGARDE SAYS CHINA TO IMPLEMENT MORE FINANCIAL REFORMS
  • IMF: YUAN TRADING UP SIGNIFICANTLY IN 2 OF 3 MAJOR TIME ZONES
      Reuters then reports,

CHINA'S RENMINBI TO HAVE WEIGHTING OF 10.92 PCT IN IMF'S BENCHMARK SDR CURRENCY BASKET
Which is less than the 14-16% expectation (but nationalistically greater than Japan's Yen and Britain's Pound)...

But, as Bloomberg details, there are 4 critical points...
  • SDR status doesn’t require central banks to hold yuan but could be a catalyst for portfolio reallocation.
  • Reserve managers for countries having strong trade and funding ties with China have the strongest incentive to increase yuan holdings.
  • Reallocations by central banks may be gradual to minimize disadvantageous market pricing.
  • Reallocations by private investors will be constrained until capital controls are lifted and transparency improves.

However, as Bloomberg concludes, the ability (and risks) are near-term constraints on any major re-allocations.

  The willingness to hold more yuan and less dollars is one thing; the ability to execute is quite another. At the moment, the ability of private foreign investors to increase their yuan allocation is limited by China’s capital controls. There are special arrangements for foreign central banks that give them enhanced access to China’s foreign exchange and interbank bond markets.

IMF 未公開文件是將人民幣增加15%,問題是中國外匯並不自由有管制,恐怕只是佔全世界便宜
  Another hurdle for expanding yuan holdings is the perception of a lack of transparency and market manipulation by the Chinese authorities. Until access and perceptions change, these factors will slow the flow into the yuan. The depth and security of U.S. government bonds may also constrain switches out of dollar assets.

Finally we could not help but see the irony in the fact that today The IMF accepts the Yuan into the 'free market' currency basket just a day after what appeared to be a huge intervention in the offshore Yuan market...
  Central banks tend to adjust reserve allocations slowly, so as not to pit market pricing against them. This suggests a steady gradual stream of demand for yuan assets over time. Until portfolio rebalancing is complete, dollar rallies may be short-lived as these may be seen as attractive opportunities for investors in both the public and private domain to trim dollar exposure.
As finally, before everyone gets too excited - The history of yen internationalization offers a cautionary tale on hopes for the yuan.

真相或陰謀論?美元體制將崩解、中俄囤金為危機作準備

中國、俄國央行狂買黃金,知名作者Jim Rickards提出陰謀論觀點解釋,預言以美元為主的全球貨幣體制瀕臨崩盤,國際貨幣秩序即將重組,中俄囤金,正是為了危機爆發預做準備。
MarketWatch、TruNews 報導,Rickards曾撰寫知名暢銷書《下一波全球貨幣大崩潰》(The Death of Money),他在新書《The New Case for Gold》預言,全球對美元失去信心,將導致貨幣秩序崩解,當前僅剩國際貨幣基金組織(IMF)擁有乾淨的資產負債表,IMF特別提款權貨幣(SDR)將取代美元,成為主要的外匯存底貨幣。各國擁金自重,是為了在重新制定規則時,取得更多發話權。

書中指出,各國增持黃金,分散外匯存底部位,形成影子金本位制。歐元區持有黃金佔GDP比重最高,超過4%。美國為2.7%、俄國也是2.7%。俄國正全力蒐購黃金,想超越美國、趕上歐元區。另外,2015年7月中國公布黃金持有量為1,658噸,外界多認為北京持有黃金可能接近4,000噸,並持續增加當中。

Rickards 認為,等到貨幣秩序瓦解,國際改寫規則時,黃金就像賭桌上的籌碼一般,哪國持有越多、份量越重,將成為新貨幣秩序的主導者。他預估,新秩序將由美國、德國、俄國、中國制定。中國兩國囤金,正是為此預作準備。

英國金融時報、路透社3月31日報導,全球地緣政治風險日益緊繃、再加上外匯存底分散需求日增,促使全球央行趁著低價在去(2015)年大舉購入黃金,收購量多達483公噸、創金本位制結束以來的次高紀錄。根據湯森路透黃金礦業服務公司(Thomson Reuters GFMS)統計,俄羅斯與西方國家的關係日益緊張,為了把外匯存底從美元分散出去,該國已連續第4年成為全球最大黃金買家,去年收購量增加了206公噸。

中國去年下半年也大買104公噸的黃金,使黃金儲備量上升至1,742公噸,與俄羅斯成為去年最主要的黃金買主。


分析
  • 貨幣、黃金ETF及全球貿易看,仍然要經歷3年以上時間,美元才會完全結束高檔;
  • GLD ETF 趨勢看,黃金上升及美元高檔是再來情況,IMF 將人民幣增加比重,問題是中國外匯並不自由有管制,很難有實際作用;
  • IMF特別提款權貨幣(SDR)將取代美元,成為主要的外匯存底貨幣: 將來全球儲備貨幣將改變,但以全球貿易實力及中國外匯並不自由,5年內全球仍難以改變美元是主要全球貿易貨幣,加上中國加入IMF,中國大陸卻不守住人民幣,也就是說中國大陸比想像中脆弱許多人民幣下跌是全球最大風險,後來又靠中國外匯加強管制才又守住人民幣,IMF這些動作義意不大,歐元區也無法靠 Euro 特別提款權貨幣(SDR)之比重升高來維繫歐元,因為歐元問題是天生的
  • 人類資本主義金融之貨幣系統已經演變成支撐全球經濟成長關鍵,然而 , 全球債務已經超過50兆美元 之今日,既使印鈔來轉移債務泡沫,貨幣之信心需要靠黃金來支撐已經是再次印鈔需要之要件,這改革需要 IMF 一籃子貨幣加上黃金來支撐貨幣信心,但這改革還是要外匯自由貨幣來支撐,不可能靠有管制之人民幣及不穩定歐元;

2016年4月2日 星期六

我所體會之富人與窮人在行為、想法之差異 ( What I experienced between rich and poor in his/her thinking and behavior )

  許多人也許少有機會看見自已朋友從貧窮走向富足、從沒房子沒錢走向上億富人,我卻是親眼所見,希望藉這樣所見所聞,鼓勵大家走向富足,才能幫助許多人,不要以為不可能。

10 Major Differences Between Rich and Poor People

I've been rich and I’ve been poor. I know both sides very well.

Growing up poor, I knew that I wanted to be rich. At the age of 24, I earned my first million dollars. I came a long way and studied the subject all of my life. Over time, I have discovered that if you're not living in prosperity, you're living in poverty.

Wealth is a choice that we must all make. Bill Gates once said, "It's not your fault if you were born poor, but it’s your fault if you die poor." There's no reason why you should live in poverty. Wealth is waiting for you, but you have to make up your mind if you want it in your life.

For a long time, I struggled to believe that I could eventually become rich. It wasn't until I observed the differences in thoughts and actions between the "haves" and the "have-nots."

Here are 10 major differences between rich and poor people: ( behavior )
  • 1a. Poor people are skeptical  ( 窮人易懷疑態度 )
    • I distinctly remember a former coworker of mine saying, "Those mechanics are a rip-off! They're always looking for the weak people. They'll charge you when you're not looking!!" He thought that everyone unjustly wanted his money and that everyone is out there to get him. 
  • 1b. Rich people are trusting ( 富人信任人 )
    • Surprisingly, a great deal of rich people leave their car and house doors open. Conversely, in areas of poverty, you'll find that this behavior is highly unlikely to happen. Rich people have the tendency to trust those they meet (within reason) and give others the opportunity to be themselves.
  • 2a. Poor people find fault ( 窮人找錯誤 )
    • People who are poor are always looking for the problems instead of the solutions. They end up blaming their environment, circumstances, jobs, weather, government, and will make an extensive list of excuses as to why they cannot be successful. 
  • 2b. Rich people find success ( 富人尋覓成功之道 )
    • Rich people understand that everything happens for a reason. Rather than letting life happen to them, they take direct action and make big things happen. They put aside all the excuses and eradicate their blame lists because they have to do what must be done. 
Related: 10 Phrases Every Millionaire Avoids
  • 3a. Poor people make assumptions ( 窮人常做假設 )
    • When it comes to knowing the truth, poor people often make assumptions. If they want to reach out to a celebrity, they might say, "They probably don't have time to talk to me." Instead of checking the facts or asking questions, they never make a true attempt when it comes to getting what they want.
  • 3b. Rich people ask questions ( 富人常問問題 )
    • Many rich people ask the question, "What if?" For instance, "What if I wrote an email to the president and he or she answers?" If you begin to ask questions, you will save yourself a lot of hassle. The power is in the hands of those who ask the right questions. They don't answer your questions, question your answers.
  • 4a. Poor people say, "They" and "Them" ( 窮人常說“他們”和“他們” )
    • In the grocery store, the woman at the register said, "They never have enough cashiers. I don't know what's wrong with them." Obviously, this woman did not take any ownership and responsibility over her job. She certainly did separate herself from the job that was paying her. 
  • 4b. Rich people say, "We" ( 富人常說“我們” )
    • At one of my favorite restaurants, the server said, "We take great delight in cooking our steaks in real fire." His sense of pride and ownership stimulated me, which allowed me to give him an honorable tip. Surely, you will be rich when you invest more into what you believe in.  
  • 5a. Poor people want the cheapest way ( 窮人常選擇最便宜的方式 )
    • I was once shopping with a friend who only wanted to buy if they could find the cheapest clothing. They would rush to the clearance rack and pick up clothes that they didn't even want, but ended up buying because of a "deal." Unfortunately, they ended up never wearing it since they only bought the price.
  • 5b. Rich people want the best way  ( 富人常選擇最好的方法 )
    • Rich people will go the extra mile to find quality material. They don't limit themselves to price and often seek service while they shop. Rich people want organized services and will never settle with items that are worthless and unusable.
  • 6a. Poor people think money is more important than time ( 窮人認為金錢比時間更重要 )
    • Millions of people all over the world are trading their precious time for money. You can always get $500 back, but you can't get 50 hours again. Nonetheless, the majority of people trade time for money and never realize their true potential because of it.
  • 6b. Rich people know that time is more important than money ( 富人認為時間比金錢更重要 )
    • Rich people never trade time for money. Moreover, they seek fulfilling experiences that dramatically alter their lives. Their careers are more focused on doing what they love and helping others, instead of merely clocking in for a meager paycheck.
Related: 5 Secrets to Monetizing Your LinkedIn Experience
  • 7a. Poor people compete ( 窮人只知競爭 )
    • When a poor person sees an opportunity, they find out how others are doing it and emulates them. Most often, they never consider another way of doing it. Instead, they settle in the belief that doing what others are doing is the best thing they can do for themselves.
  • 7b. Rich people create ( 富人創造機會 )
    • My rich neighbors were disgruntled when they found that their Porsche did not come in a specific shade of green, which they deeply wanted. Because of this, they decided to custom build their green Porsche with unprecedented specifications. I've never seen such a thing! 
  • 8a. Poor people complain, condemn, and criticize ( 窮人抱怨,譴責和批判 )
    • Most poor people have learned how to be poor from their predecessors. Their family members have conditioned them to believe that everything is "wrong" instead of right. If you're ever heard someone ask, "What's wrong?" you'll know what I mean.
  • 8b. Rich people praise and enjoy their blessings ( 富人讚揚和感恩他們的祝福 )
    • Rich people know that they have many privileges and they don't take it for granted. Because of their appreciation of gifts, love, and circumstances, they are able to generate more. Many times, what gets praised gets prospered.
  • 9a. Poor people seek amateur advice ( 窮人常尋求非專業意見 )
    • They often listen to the opinions of others and seek approval from acquaintances. They believe almost everything they hear without questioning authority. They accept opinions as facts and prohibit themselves from doing research once satisfied with an answer.
  • 9b. Rich people seek expert advice ( 富人們徵求專家意見 )
    • Those who are rich have learned to think for themselves. If they cannot figure out something, they seek expert advice. Usually, they pay for the advice and are given a wide variety of options. They learn the experts only make suggestions, which means that they aren't particularly confined to a specific action.
  • 10a. Poor people have big television sets ( 窮人喜愛有大電視機 )
    • Poor people take a lot of time to drift off to sporadic images of which they often have little to no control over. They use their free time to avoid the art of thinking (which is the most challenging task) and zone out to what many have conformed to believe is "entertainment." 
  • 10b. Rich people have big libraries ( 富人喜愛有大知識庫 )
    • Wealthy people are educated and read a lot of books. They use their knowledge in a way that benefits them. Instead of drifting off in random activities, they seek to get within their minds to understand themselves, others, and the world in which they live. In fact, as your personal library increase over the years, so will your home. I can attest to this!
To get a true perspective on how to become rich, you must study rich people. After all, you become what you study. If you're currently surrounded by people who aren't yet rich, just do the opposite of what they do. Soon enough, you'll be able to reach your financial dreams!

7 Main Differences Between Rich And Poor People

    Most people want to be rich, but most of them are poor, why? There must be some differences between rich people and poor people. If you study carefully, you will find out why rich and successful people are able to produce amazing results in their life, and why some people are living in poverty.
  To be rich and successful, you don’t need to be lucky, extremely hard working or you need to have a college diploma or a university degree.
  What you need, is the right mindset and the right mindset will form the right habit. As a result, the right habit will lead you toward the financial abundance kind of lifestyle that you always desire.
So here are the 7 main differences between rich and poor people…

  1. Rich people believe that they create their lives while poor people believe that life happens to them. 
    • Can you see why rich and successful people are able to create amazing results in their life right now? It is simply because they are in control of their lives. They believe that they are the ones who is responsible for their lives, they are the ones who is creating their future, not the economy or the knowledge or luck. On the other hand, poor people will always give excuses and blame on the circumstances. 
    • When they failed in their business, they will blame the economy, their boss, their family or anything that did not go according to their plan. Whenever you believe that life happens to you, you will lose the power to change and the power to control your future. You must believe that you’re the one who is creating your future, not other people or events.
  2. Rich people play the money game to win but poor people play the money game just not to lose money. 
    • This is a big mindset difference. Have you ever seen people invest in the stock market? Some people are so afraid that they will lose their money and they form a mindset that blocks their creativity. They formed the mindset of ‘investing not to lose the money.’However, rich and successful people know exactly how they need to think in order to win the game of money. 
    • They will think and act from the view of playing the game to win. Unlike poor people, they will never invest just not to lose the money.
  3. Rich people think and focus on opportunities while poor people focus on obstacles. 
    • When you face with problems, what are you focus on? Are you focus on the problems, thinking how bad the situation is going to be? Or are you focusing on the solution and thinking about how you can solve or even turn the situation into opportunity? Think about this carefully. No matter who you are, you will definitely face with all kinds of choices in your life. And when you need to decide to move on, try to notice on you thinking, what do you focus on, the solution, or the problem?
  4. Rich people dare to dream big, poor people think small. 
    • When I tell my parents that I want to make a million dollar, they will tell me, “Why do you need so much money? You can live a very good lifestyle if you got a job that has a good pay. You don’t need to be a millionaire.” I don’t know about you, but this statement happens to me all the time. And I definitely believe that poor people will tend to think small while rich people always think big. 
    • To poor people, they will think that rich people are greedy because they always think big. Is it true that you are being greedy if you think big? I don’t know if I buy this, but to me, I’ll think of it as a waste if you’re not using the resources available (your thinking) to you at full. Don’t you owe it to everyone around you to create a better life for them? Don’t you want your family to live good? So think big and create the abundance lifestyle for these people right now.
  5. Rich people are committed to their dreams, poor people are just dreaming about their dreams. Yes, this is an obvious one. 
    • If you’re not committed to be rich, you can never be rich. How many times have you heard people say that they want to be rich, but they never do anything about it?
    • This is the mentality of poor people. They will just think about how good it is going to be if they are rich, but they will never do anything about their dreams. They know that they cannot afford a luxury car if they have a low pay job. The thing is, they never do anything to change it.
    • On the contrary, rich and successful people are committed toward their dreams. They will do whatever it takes, in the boundary or moral and ethics of course, to achieve their dreams.
  6. Rich people associate with rich and successful people. Poor people will associate with poor people. Do you have any rich friends? Or all of your friends are poor?
    • I’m not suggesting that you need to stop making friends with poor people, what I’m suggesting it, try to get to know more about rich people. The more you mix with them, the more you will think like them. And if you think like them, you will start to create amazing results just like them.
    • If most of your friends are poor and their working salary all are below, $2,000, you will be having the same range of salary most of the time. However, if you associate with rich people who are making $2,000 in just a day, you will start to see the possibility of what you can accomplish in your life.
    • And this will change your thinking of what you can achieve in your life. $2,000 will become a small amount for you once you changed your mindset about money.
  7. Rich people good learners while poor people think that they have learned everything in the world. One of the fastest ways to be financially abundance is to learn directly from people who have already achieved this status.
And if you’re not willing to learn, you will never be able to be successful. If you want to get the best pay, you must be the best. And the only way you can be the best is to learn from the best and learn to be the best.
You now know what are the 7 main differences between rich and poor people. Do what rich people do and try to avoid the adopting the mindset and habits of the poor.
This will guarantee you a financial abundance lifestyle.

成為富人我體會之富人行為、想法心得:
  • 看趨勢、對方向比什麼都重要;( Trend )
  • 看遠景、產業趨勢;( Vision )
  • 生意模式、商業模式及創新之價值;( Business model )
  • 重閱讀、知識、人脈,非常多富人有大量知識及閱讀習慣;( Knowledge、Connection )
  • 看重健康,知道感恩 ( healthy & blessing life )
  • 看重執行力、選最好的來運作 ( Execution、do the best )
  • 看重投資及生意模式之財務績效成長率及風險,指數型成長,還是線型成長 ( Profit、Risk model )
  • 足夠的耐心等待時機、足夠的恆心毅力,了解該堅持是什麼 ( Patient、Determination
     )
    • 時間比金錢重要,時機比時間及金錢還重要
    • 時間比金錢重要,重點在於運用人脈、資源去順利達成
  • 一個產業或投資之成長,不是所有行業或方式賺的錢是一樣多的,投資賺錢模式要對 ( What is the key and secret in the great success of business and investment model ? )

參考

2016年3月26日 星期六

聖嬰現象對糖產的負面影響於今年逐步發酵,需尋找糖價受益相關投資 ( The negative impact of El Nino on the fermentation of sugar this year, and gradually boost the sugar price )

基本面出現改善 糖價可望獲得推升動力

《Agrimoney.com》3月14日報導,荷蘭合作銀行(Rabobank)最新報告表示,糖市的基本面正在出現改善,並且也開始推動糖價的上漲,該行將2015/16年全球糖市短缺預估從470萬噸上調至680萬噸。報告表示,今年初以來糖價主要受到基金賣盤、總體經濟的不確定性,以及低油價等因素的影響,直到現在基本面的因素才正開始影響糖價。美國洲際期貨交易所(ICE Futures U.S.)5月粗糖期貨3月14日收盤為每磅15.42美分,創下年內新高。

德國軟性商品分析公司F.O. Licht週一(14日)也在報告中將糖市短缺預估從650萬噸上調至720萬噸。國際糖業組織( International Sugar Organisation )上月則是在報告中將將糖市短缺預估從150萬噸上調至500萬噸,巴西分析機構Datagro也將糖市短缺預估從387萬噸上調至437萬噸,福四通(FC Stone)將糖市短缺預估從560萬噸上調至700萬噸。

荷蘭合作銀行報告稱,未來糖價的主要影響因素在于最大產國巴西的產量,目前市場上預期2016/17年度巴西糖產量將為3,400-3,500萬噸,但該行認為巴西糖產量低於預期的機率要比高於預期的機率來得大,主要因為巴西可能有更多甘蔗將用於生產乙醇,並且天氣也可能是不利因素之一。此外,巴西幣近期的升值對於該國的糖出口也較為不利。

巴西甘蔗產業聯盟(Unica)技術總監羅德里格茲(Antonio de Padua Rodrigues)表示,自4月起的2016/17年度,主產的中南部地區糖產量預估將年增約200萬噸至3,300萬噸,此項預估低於其他分析機構的預期。

澳大利亞農業資源經濟及科技局(Abares)預估,未來五年全球糖市將是供給短缺的局面,有助於消化糖市的庫存;至2020/21年度,全球糖市的庫存消費比將從上年度的43%降至28%。2016/17年度,全球糖產量預估將為1.83億噸,產量增長主要來自於歐盟、中國大陸、巴西以及印度等國家。至2020/21年度,全球糖消費量預估較目前增加300萬噸至1.87億噸,其中95%的消費增長是來自於大陸、印度以及巴西等三個國家。


陸媒報導,2016年中國糖業發展國際論壇暨中國糖業協會商業流通會員座談會,將於3月11日於廣西舉行,屆時主產糖省區將通報2015/2016年製糖期食糖產銷情況、2016/2017年製糖期糖料種植情況。另受聖嬰現象影響,全球食糖產量明顯下滑,國際主要糖業機構普遍預計,全球糖市六年來首次出現供應缺口,缺口規模將超市場預期。機構預計,白糖已經進入減產週期,需求保持穩定增長致使庫存去化加速,糖價有望繼續上漲,製糖業景氣可望持續。

據悉,2015/2016年榨季,大陸糖產量再降10%以上,而需求穩定增長,供給和需求顯著改善將推動糖價上漲。2015/2016年製糖期已進入生產旺季,截至今年1月底,本製糖期全國累計產糖421.09萬噸,上製糖期同期產糖為478.57萬噸,比上製糖期同期少產糖57.48萬噸,減產幅度達12%。


與此同時,大陸食糖需求處於穩定增長,根據近日大陸國家統計局資料顯示,去(2015)年食品和飲料製造業年增均逾7.5%,而食品及飲料製造業在大陸食糖消費的比例中佔據主要規模。另外,據外媒報導,緬甸白糖與甘蔗產品商協會消息,今財年中國白糖需求量高漲,進行了大量購買,因而緬甸本財年(2015年至2016財年)白糖出口量預計將創30年來新高,有望超過300萬噸。

大陸糖業已進入新一輪減產週期,未來不斷改善的供需關係將推升製糖業景氣。自2011/2012年榨季以來,廣西甘蔗收購價逐年下調,自500元/噸(人民幣,下同)降至去年的400元/噸,目前略有回升。但受兌付率偏低、改種其他農作物等因素影響,農民種植甘蔗的意願已大幅降低,預計2016/2017年度種植面積難以出現明顯回升。

此外,受聖嬰現象影響,食糖主產國的產量明顯下降。國際主要糖業機構普遍預計,2015/2016年度,全球糖市六年來首次出現供應缺口,且缺口規模將超預期。其中,巴西中南部主產區2015/2016年榨季減產格局已定,聖嬰現象對印度、泰國食糖生產也造成不利影響。多家機構預測2015/2016年度全球食糖供應出現缺口,且近日多家機構預計供需缺口將擴大。巴西行業分析機構 Datagro 近期表示,預計2015/2016年度全球糖市供應短缺437萬噸,1月預估為387萬噸,2016/2017年度預計短缺769萬噸。

There's a worldwide sugar shortage happening right now

If you’re a fan of sugar - and let’s face it, you probably are - 2016 is going to be an expensive year, because recent El Niño events have brought on a worldwide sugar shortage that's becoming a whole lot bigger than analysts initially thought.

According to a report by The Independent, raw sugar prices are up 45 percent since last August, and researchers say it's because El Niño has dealt a one-two punch to the areas of the world where most sugar is produced. For India, Thailand, and China, droughts have devastated this year's production, and will likely affect next year’s yield as well.

The world’s second largest sugar-producing region, India, has experienced decreased rainfall that has limited the number of crops farmers were able to plant. To make matters worse, the areas that have received rain, such as Brazil, got too much to properly harvest cane.

All of this means that there isn’t enough sugar to fulfil the 4.95 million tonnes the world is expected to consume this year. Demand for the natural sweetener is expected to exceed new supply by 7.6 million metric tonnes this season - a 2.5 million-tonne increase over its previous estimates, The Wall Street Journal reports.

On the plus side, this year’s shortage comes at a time when sugar was at its lowest price in many years thanks to a surplus of production. "After five years of surplus that sent prices to the lowest since 2008, supply is expected to fall short of demand in the 2015-16 season," Rudy Ruitenberg reports for Bloomberg.

"The fact is that we’ve had four to five years of too much sugar - four or five years of feast, and we’re now looking for the first time at a sizeable deficit," Tim Worledge from Platts Agriculture, an independent commodities analysis organisation, told The Wall Street Journal.

Economic repercussions aside, what actually happened to cause this shortage? To answer that, we need to talk about El Niño, which, in its most basic summary, is simply a climate cycle.

As the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) puts it: "The term El Niño refers to the large-scale ocean-atmosphere climate interaction linked to a periodic warming in sea surface temperatures across the central and east-central Equatorial Pacific."

When in full swing, El Niño affects weather all over the place. For some areas, this means more rain, and for others, that means less. This year and last, the cycle has affected sugar producing regions of the world harder. There’s not really any specific reason for this - it’s just really bad luck.

So, for the foreseeable future, get ready to spend more on sugar at the store and hope that the weather favours the regions responsible for its production next year.

分析

  • 目前為2012年產季有完整紀錄以來的同期產量最低點,同時印度全國約500家糖廠,去年同期尚有473家運作中,今年僅325家,其中今年已停止生產的189家糖廠中。
  • Green Pool Commodities increased its forecast for the global sugar deficit, saying consumption will exceed supply by 6.65 million tons, up from an earlier forecast of 4.14 million tons for the crop year that ends in March.. ( 預估糖供應小於需求 ).
  • 糖價在今年初隨整體原物料商品價格一同走弱,但從上週起已完全收復今年跌幅,目前仍持續走多• 上週已提到巴西里爾匯率走升為軟性商品價格提供支撐,但目前已升至相對高點,且由於巴西政局動盪將進入相對較大波動•除匯率之外,從去年起的聖嬰現象對糖產的負面影響於今年逐步發酵,導致糖的供應基本面短缺趨勢明顯,預期今年糖價將持續在供應不足消息下走升