2013年10月19日 星期六

為什麼蜜蜂消失? ( Marla Spivak: Why bees are disappearing ? ) - 有害農藥、殺蟲劑、基因除野草農藥已經逐漸傷害人類

Bees shortage happen from 2009, the trend did not change
    This is our life with bees, and this is our life without bees. Bees are the most important pollinators of our fruits and vegetables and flowers and crops like alfalfa hay that feed our farm animals. More than one third of the world's crop production is dependent on bee pollination. ( 這是我們的生命與蜜蜂,這是我們的生命沒有蜜蜂。蜜蜂授粉是最重要的,我們的水果和蔬菜,花卉和農作物,如苜蓿乾草餵養農場動物。超過三分之一的世界農作物產量取決於蜜蜂授粉。)

But the ironic thing is that bees are not out there pollinating our food intentionally. They're out there because they need to eat. Bees get all of the protein they need in their diet from pollen and all of the carbohydrates they need from nectar. They're flower-feeders, and as they move from flower to flower, basically on a shopping trip at the local floral mart, they end up providing this valuable pollination service. In parts of the world where there are no bees, or where they plant varieties that are not attractive to bees, people are paid to do the business of pollination by hand. These people are moving pollen from flower to flower with a paintbrush. Now this business of hand pollination is actually not that uncommon. Tomato growers often pollinate their tomato flowers with a hand-held vibrator. Now this one's the tomato tickler. (Laughter) Now this is because the pollen within a tomato flower is held very securely within the male part of the flower, the anther, and the only way to release this pollen is to vibrate it. So bumblebees are one of the few kinds of bees in the world that are able to hold onto the flower and vibrate it, and they do this by shaking their flight muscles at a frequency similar to the musical note C. So they vibrate the flower, they sonicate it, and that releases the pollen in this efficient swoosh, and the pollen gathers all over the fuzzy bee's body, and she takes it home as food. Tomato growers now put bumblebee colonies inside the greenhouse to pollinate the tomatoes because they get much more efficient pollination when it's done naturally and
US bees colony loss history in winter
they get better quality tomatoes. ( 但具有諷刺意味的事情是,蜜蜂不是故意在那裡授粉我們的食物。他們在那裡,因為他們需要吃。蜜蜂得到所有他們需要在他們的飲食花粉和所有他們需要從花蜜的碳水化合物的蛋白質。他們花供料器,當他們從花間,基本上是在當地的花卉超市的購物之旅,他們最終提供這種寶貴的授粉服務。那裡有沒有蜜蜂,在那裡他們不能吸引蜜蜂的植物品種,在世界各地,人們都在做支付業務授粉手。這些人正在用畫筆在花授粉。現在這項業務的人工授粉,其實並不少見。番茄種植者往往番茄花授粉用手持式振動器。現在,這其中的番茄難事。 這是因為番茄花的花粉內內的男性之花,花藥,只有這樣,才能釋放花粉振動非常牢固。因此,大黃蜂是蜜蜂在世界是能夠守住花和振動的幾種之一,而且他們做到這一點,所以他們晃動的頻率類似音符C.它們的飛行肌肉振動花,他們超聲,這種高效旋風,釋放花粉,花粉收集所有模糊蜜蜂的身體,她把它帶回家作為食物。番茄種植者現在把大黃蜂的殖民地,因為他們得到更有效的,當它完成授粉自然授粉西紅柿大棚內,他們得到更優質的西紅柿。)

So there's other, maybe more personal reasons, to care about bees. There's over 20,000 species of bees in the world, and they're absolutely gorgeous. These bees spend the majority of their life cycle hidden in the ground or within a hollow stem and very few of these beautiful species have evolved highly social behavior like honeybees. ( 因此有其他的、更多的個人原因,關心蜜蜂。有超過20000 種的蜜蜂在世界上,他們是絕對華麗。這些蜜蜂花其生命週期的大部分隱藏在地下或在一個中空的莖,很少有這些美麗的物種已經進化高度社會化的行為,如蜜蜂。)

Now honeybees tend to be the charismatic representative for the other 19,900-plus species because there's something about honeybees that draws people into their world. Humans have been drawn to honeybees since early recorded history, mostly to harvest their honey, which is an amazing natural sweetener. ( 現在,蜜蜂往往是魅力的代表,其他19,900+ 物種有關蜜蜂,吸引人們進入他們的世界,因為有什麼東西。月初以來的歷史記錄人類注意蜜蜂,主要是有收穫的蜂蜜,這是一個驚人的天然甜味劑。)

I got drawn into the honeybee world completely by a fluke. I was 18 years old and bored, and I picked up a book in the library on bees and I spent the night reading it. I had never thought about insects living in complex societies. It was like the best of science fiction come true. And even stranger, there were these people, these beekeepers, that loved their bees like they were family, and when I put down the book, I knew I had to see this for myself. So I went to work for a commercial beekeeper, a family that owned 2,000 hives of bees in New Mexico. And I was permanently hooked.

Honeybees can be considered a super-organism, where the colony is the organism and it's comprised of 40,000 to 50,000 individual bee organisms. Now this society has no central authority. Nobody's in charge. So how they come to collective decisions, and how they allocate their tasks and divide their labor, how they communicate where the flowers are, all of their collective social behaviors are mindblowing. My personal favorite, and one that I've studied for many years, is their system of healthcare. So bees have social healthcare. So in my lab, we study how bees keep themselves healthy. For example, we study hygiene, where some bees are able to locate and weed out sick individuals from the nest, from the colony, and it keeps the colony healthy. And more recently, we've been studying resins that bees collect from plants. So bees fly to some plants and they scrape these very, very sticky resins off the leaves, and they take them back to the nest where they cement them into the nest architecture where we call it propolis. We've found that propolis is a natural disinfectant. It's a natural antibiotic. It kills off bacteria and molds and other germs within the colony, and so it bolsters the colony health and their social immunity. Humans have known about the power of propolis since biblical times. We've been harvesting propolis out of bee colonies for human medicine, but we didn't know how good it was for the bees. So honeybees have these remarkable natural defenses that have kept them healthy and thriving for over 50 million years.

So seven years ago, when honeybee colonies were reported to be dying en masse, first in the United States, it was clear that there was something really, really wrong. In our collective conscience, in a really primal way, we know we can't afford to lose bees. So what's going on? Bees are dying from multiple and interacting causes, and I'll go through each of these. The bottom line is, bees dying reflects a flowerless landscape and a dysfunctional food system. ( 所以七年前,當蜂群就要集體死去,首先在美國,它是明確的,有一些真的錯了。在我們的集體良知,在一個非常原始的方式,我們知道,我們不能失去蜜蜂。所以,這是怎麼回事呢?蜜蜂死於由多個相互作用的原因,我會去通過這些。底線是,蜜蜂死去,反映了無花的景觀和一個不正常的糧食系統。)

Now we have the best data on honeybees, so I'll use them as an example. In the United States, bees in fact have been in decline since World War II. We have half the number of managed hives in the United States now compared to 1945. We're down to about two million hives of bees, we think. And the reason is, after World War II, we changed our farming practices. We stopped planting cover crops. We stopped planting clover and alfalfa, which are natural fertilizers that fix nitrogen in the soil, and instead we started using synthetic fertilizers. Clover and alfalfa are highly nutritious food plants for bees. And after World War II, we started using herbicides to kill off the weeds in our farms. Many of these weeds are flowering plants that bees require for their survival. And we started growing larger and larger crop monocultures. Now we talk about food deserts, places in our cities, neighborhoods that have no grocery stores. The very farms that used to sustain bees are now agricultural food deserts, dominated by one or two plant species like corn and soybeans. Since World War II, we have been systematically eliminating many of the flowering plants that bees need for their survival. And these monocultures extend even to crops that are good for bees, like almonds. Fifty years ago, beekeepers would take a few colonies, hives of bees into the almond orchards, for pollination, and also because the pollen in an almond blossom is really high in protein. It's really good for bees. Now, the scale of almond monoculture demands that most of our nation's bees, over 1.5 million hives of bees, be transported across the nation to pollinate this one crop. And they're trucked in in semi-loads, and they must be trucked out, because after bloom, the almond orchards are a vast and flowerless landscape. ( 現在,我們有最好的數據蜜蜂,所以我會用它們作為一個例子。在美國,蜜蜂其實自二戰以來一直在下降。我們有一半的人數相比,現在至1945年在美國的管理蕁麻疹。我們下降到約200萬蜂巢的蜜蜂,我們的想法。原因是,二戰結束後,我們改變了我們的耕作方式。我們停止種植覆蓋作物。我們停止種植三葉草,苜蓿,這是天然的肥料,土壤中的氮固定,相反,我們開始使用合成肥料。三葉草和苜蓿植物對蜜蜂高營養的食物。二戰結束後,我們就開始使用除草劑殺死雜草在我們的農場。許多這些雜草開花植物,蜜蜂需要為自己的生存。我們開始越來越大的作物單一種植。現在我們談論食物沙漠,在我們的城市的地方,沒有雜貨店的街區。蜜蜂用於維持農場現在農業食品沙漠,由一個或兩個植物物種,如玉米和大豆為主。自第二次世界大戰以來,我們一直在系統地消除許多開花植物,蜜蜂需要為自己的生存。這些甚至延伸單一種植農作物,良好的蜜蜂,像杏仁。五十年前,養蜂人將採取幾個殖民地,入杏仁果園蜂箱的蜜蜂,授粉,也因為實在是高蛋白質的杏仁花中的花粉。蜜蜂真的很好。現在,杏仁單一種植規模的要求,我們國家的大部分蜜蜂,超過150萬個蜂巢的蜜蜂,被運往全國各地的授粉作物。他們用卡車運在半負荷,他們必須用卡車運出去,因為杏仁果園開花後,是一個巨大的和無花的景觀。)

Bees have been dying over the last 50 years, and we're planting more crops that need them. There has been a 300 percent increase in crop production that requires bee pollination. ( 蜜蜂已經死在過去50年,我們更多需要它們的農作物種植。已經有需要蜜蜂授粉作物產量增加了300%。)

And then there's pesticides. After World War II, we started using pesticides on a large scale, and this became necessary because of the monocultures that put out a feast for crop pests. Recently, researchers from Penn State University have started looking at the pesticide residue in the loads of pollen that bees carry home as food, and they've found that every batch of pollen that a honeybee collects has at least six detectable pesticides in it, and this includes every class of insecticides, herbicides, fungicides, and even inert and unlabeled ingredients that are part of the pesticide formulation that can be more toxic than the active ingredient. This small bee is holding up a large mirror. How much is it going to take to contaminate humans? ( 再有就是農藥。二戰結束後,我們開始大規模使用農藥,而這也成為必要的,因為單一種植農作物病蟲害。最近,賓夕法尼亞州立大學的研究人員已經開始尋找在負載花粉,蜜蜂帶回家作為食品的農藥殘留,他們已經發現,蜜蜂採集花粉,每一批有至少六個檢測農藥,包括每一個類殺蟲劑,除莠劑,殺真菌劑,即使是無反應性的和未標記的成分的農藥製劑的一部分,可以是活性成分的毒性比。這小蜜蜂拿著一個大鏡子。要多少來污染人類嗎?)

One of these class of insecticides, the neonicontinoids, is making headlines around the world right now. You've probably heard about it. This is a new class of insecticides. It moves through the plant so that a crop pest, a leaf-eating insect, would take a bite of the plant and get a lethal dose and die. If one of these neonics, we call them, is applied in a high concentration, such as in this ground application, enough of the compound moves through the plant and gets into the pollen and the nectar, where a bee can consume, in this case, a high dose of this neurotoxin that makes the bee twitch and die. In most agricultural settings, on most of our farms, it's only the seed that's coated with the insecticide, and so a smaller concentration moves through the plant and gets into the pollen and nectar, and if a bee consumes this lower dose, either nothing happens or the bee becomes intoxicated and disoriented and she may not find her way home. And on top of everything else, bees have their own set of diseases and parasites. Public enemy number one for bees is this thing. It's called varroa destructor. It's aptly named. It's this big, blood-sucking parasite that compromises the bee's immune system and circulates viruses. ( 這些類殺蟲劑, neonicontinoids ,現在世界各地的頭條新聞。你可能已經聽說過它。這是一類新的殺蟲劑。移動通過植物,使作物害蟲,食葉昆蟲,咬了一口的植物,並得到一個致命的劑量和模具。如果這些neonics之一,我們給他們打電話,適用於高濃度,如在這地面應用,足以通過植物的複合移動並進入花粉和花蜜,蜜蜂可以消耗的地方,在這種情況下,高劑量的這種神經毒素,使蜜蜂抽搐和死亡。大多數農產品設置,我們的大多數農場種子與殺蟲劑的塗,這樣一個較小的濃度移動通過植物和獲取到的花粉和花蜜,和如果一隻蜜蜂消耗這個較低的劑量,無論是什麼發生或蜜蜂變得陶醉和迷失方向,她可能無法找到回家的路。一切之上,蜜蜂疾病和寄生蟲都有自己的一套。頭號公敵蜜蜂是這件事情。這就是所謂的蜂析構函數。它恰當地命名。這是這個大,吸血的寄生蟲,危害蜜蜂的免疫系統和循環病毒。)

Let me put this all together for you. I don't know what it feels like to a bee to have a big, bloodsucking parasite running around on it, and I don't know what it feels like to a bee to have a virus, but I do know what it feels like when I have a virus, the flu, and I know how difficult it is for me to get to the grocery store to get good nutrition. But what if I lived in a food desert? And what if I had to travel a long distance to get to the grocery store, and I finally got my weak body out there and I consumed, in my food, enough of a pesticide, a neurotoxin, that I couldn't find my way home? And this is what we mean by multiple and interacting causes of death. ( 讓我把這一切放在一起給你。我不知道是什麼感覺像蜜蜂有一個大的吸血寄生蟲上跑來跑去,我不知道是什麼感覺像蜜蜂有病毒,但我不知道這是什麼感覺當我有一個病毒,流感,我知道我去雜貨店得到良好的營養是多麼困難。但是,如果我住在食品沙漠?如果我不得不長途跋涉去雜貨店,我終於得到了我虛弱的身體在那裡,我在我的食物,消耗足夠的殺蟲劑,毒素,我無法找到我的路回家嗎?這就是我們的意思是由多個相互作用的死因。)

And it's not just our honeybees. All of our beautiful wild species of bees are at risk, including those tomato-pollinating bumblebees. These bees are providing backup for our honeybees. They're providing the pollination insurance alongside our honeybees. We need all of our bees. ( 它不只是我們的蜜蜂。我們美麗的野生蜂的種類的風險,包括那些番茄授粉熊蜂。這些蜜蜂為蜜蜂提供備份。他們與我們的蜜蜂授粉保險。我們需要我們的蜜蜂。)

So what are we going to do? What are we going to do about this big bee bummer that we've created? It turns out, it's hopeful. It's hopeful. Every one of you out there can help bees in two very direct and easy ways. Plant bee-friendly flowers, and don't contaminate these flowers, this bee food, with pesticides. So go online and search for flowers that are native to your area and plant them. Plant them in a pot on your doorstep. Plant them in your front yard, in your lawns, in your boulevards. Campaign to have them planted in public gardens, community spaces, meadows. Set aside farmland. We need a beautiful diversity of flowers that blooms over the entire growing season, from spring to fall. We need roadsides seeded in flowers for our bees, but also for migrating butterflies and birds and other wildlife. And we need to think carefully about putting back in cover crops to nourish our soil and nourish our bees. And we need to diversify our farms. We need to plant flowering crop borders and hedge rows to disrupt the agricultural food desert and begin to correct the dysfunctional food system that we've created. ( 那麼,我們該怎麼辦?什麼是我們做的,我們已經創造了這個大蜜蜂無賴?事實證明,這是有希望的。這是充滿希望的。在那裡可以幫助你每一個蜜蜂在兩個非常直接和簡便的方法。植物花蜜蜂友好,不會污染這些花,蜜蜂食品,農藥。所以去網上搜索花原產區和植物他們。他們栽在一個鍋裡在您的家門口。他們栽在你的前院,在你的草坪,在您的林蔭大道。運動讓他們栽在公共花園,社區空間,草地。設置撥出農田。我們需要一個美麗的鮮花盛開在整個生長季節,春季到秋季的多樣性。我們需要為我們的蜜蜂在花叢中路旁接種,但也遷移蝴蝶和鳥類和其他野生動物。我們需要仔細想想放回覆蓋作物來滋養我們的土壤和滋養我們的蜜蜂。我們需要分散我們的農場。我們需要破壞農業食品沙漠植物開花裁剪邊界圍籬,並開始糾正不正常的糧食系統,我們已經創建。)

So maybe it seems like a really small countermeasure to a big, huge problem -- just go plant flowers -- but when bees have access to good nutrition, we have access to good nutrition through their pollination services. And when bees have access to good nutrition, they're better able to engage their own natural defenses, their healthcare, that they have relied on for millions of years. So the beauty of helping bees this way, for me, is that every one of us needs to behave a little bit more like a bee society, an insect society, where each of our individual actions can contribute to a grand solution, an emergent property, that's much greater than the mere sum of our individual actions. So let the small act of planting flowers and keeping them free of pesticides be the driver of large-scale change. ( 所以也許它看起來像一個真正的小對策,巨大的一個大問題 - 只是去養花 - 但是當蜜蜂有良好的營養,我們有良好的營養,通過他們的授粉服務。而當蜜蜂有良好的營養,他們能夠更好地從事自己的天然防禦能力,他們的醫療保健,他們所依靠的數百萬年。所以愛美幫助蜜蜂這樣,對我來說,是我們每個人都需要表現多一點點像蜜蜂社會,昆蟲社會,我們每一個人的行動可以促進一個盛大的解決方案,一個新興的物業,這是遠大於區區我們每一個人的行動。因此,讓小種植鮮花和保持它們不含農藥的行為是司機的大尺度變化。)

On behalf of the bees, thank you.

Chris Anderson: Thank you. Just a quick question. The latest numbers on the die-off of bees, is there any sign of things bottoming out? What's your hope/depression level on this?

Maria Spivak: Yeah. At least in the United States, an average of 30 percent of all bee hives are lost every winter. About 20 years ago, we were at a 15-percent loss. So it's getting precarious.

CA: That's not 30 percent a year, that's -- MS: Yes, thirty percent a year.

CA: Thirty percent a year. MS: But then beekeepers are able to divide their colonies and so they can maintain the same number, they can recuperate some of their loss.

We're kind of at a tipping point. We can't really afford to lose that many more. We need to be really appreciative of all the beekeepers out there. Plant flowers. ( 我們是那種在一個轉折點。我們不能真的輸不起。我們要真的很感謝所有的養蜂人那裡。植物的花朵。)

註:
  • 有害農藥、殺蟲劑、基因除野草農藥已經逐漸傷害人類,也傷害蜜蜂及正常的糧食系統,人類曾幾何時有如此多蜂群集體死去、有如此多人得過癌症,我們真的必須改善這些問題。
  • 愛因斯坦曾說過:「如果蜜蜂 ( Bee ) 從地球上消失的話,人類只能再活四年。沒有授粉,就沒有植物、就沒有動物、就沒有人。」。蜜蜂今日的處境對每一個人來說都是一個警告。2009 ~ 2010,美國境內有三分之一或更多的蜜蜂離奇死亡(二○○七年損失大約八十萬個蜂群;二○○八年則是一百萬個蜂群)。從二○○六年年底以來,一些蜂農列舉高達百分之九十的蜜蜂損失。2011 顯然問題持續擴散到其他國家,破壞增加。



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2013年10月16日 星期三

Apple Inc., 將走精品行銷路線? 艾倫茲(Angela Ahrendts)將領導蘋果零售事業部 ( Apple Inc., Marketing will be walking into the luxury fashion style? Angela Ahrendts will lead Apple's retail division )

蘋果挖角 英時尚大咖:很榮幸

艾倫茲(Angela Ahrendts)成功擦亮有157年歷史的英國時尚名牌 Burberry,擔任執行長7年來營運成績斐然,她接受蘋果公司邀請,將出任零售與網路商店資深副總裁,轉戰科技界。

  來自美國的艾倫茲,2006年出任Burberry執行長,將這家老牌精品商改頭換面,蛻變為全球時尚數位零售店,創下傲人營運佳績,去年薪資加紅利達1,690萬英鎊,寫下英國上市公司企業執行長最高紀錄。艾倫茲說,她很榮幸加入蘋果,「我一直很敬佩蘋果產品的創新,以及對民眾生活的影響及服務」,希望可以盡一己之力,在快速變動的世界裡,協助蘋果繼續創造成功與領先。

  艾倫茲的新職是蘋果新設的職位,她預定明年春天正式走馬上任,主要負責蘋果零售店及網路店的策略方向、擴大及運作,直接向蘋果執行長庫克(Tim Cook)報告。艾倫茲加入Burberry前,曾在時裝品牌Liz Claiborne任職執行副總裁,並擔任Donna Karan International總裁。

  庫克表示,非常高興艾倫茲加入蘋果的團隊,艾倫茲之前的工作已充分顯示,她是一位十分傑出的領導人。艾倫茲說,她選擇Burberry在很好的經營情況下離開,執行長一職將由與她合作多年的Burberry創意總監貝里(Christopher Bailey)接任。

艾倫茲將離職的消息傳出後,Burberry在倫敦股市股價走跌,到上午11時左右,大跌4.73%,報1,510便士。

Apple Hires Burberry CEO Angela Ahrendts to Head Retail Efforts
Apple store will change the style ?

Apple said late Monday that it has hired Burberry CEO Angela Ahrendts to serve as head of its retail efforts.Ahrendts, who will join in the spring, will serve as senior VP and will report to CEO Tim Cook. She was among a list of people seen as top candidates for the position.

“I am profoundly honored to join Apple in this newly created position next year, and very much look forward to working with the global teams to further enrich the consumer experience on and offline,” Ahrendts said in a statement. “I have always admired the innovation and impact Apple products and services have on people’s lives and hope in some small way I can help contribute to the company’s continued success and leadership in changing the world.”

Apple has had some key vacancies in its retail operations since Ron Johnson left the company to run J.C. Penney. Johnson was replaced by former Dixons head John Browett, who was ousted by Cook a year ago. Another retail executive, VP Jerry McDougal, resigned in January.

Ahrendts, 53, has been CEO of Burberry since July 2006. From 1998 to 2006, she was an executive VP at Liz Claiborne, and also served at Henri Bendel and Donna Karan International.

Apple and Burberry collaborated in September, with Apple giving the retailer early access to the iPhone 5s to photograph the company’s London runway show.

Burberry 換設計師當家
Apple Inc., think about to join wearable computing market

  英國精品業龍頭Burberry集團(Burberry Group Plc),15日任命貝里(Christopher Bailey)接替艾倫茲(Angela Ahrendts)擔任執行長,讓一位經驗尚淺的設計師率領Burberry度過產業趨緩的難關。Burberry宣布,讓Burberry化身時尚界數位先驅的艾倫茲,將在2014年期間跳槽蘋果公司(Apple Inc.),由現年42歲的貝里接下執行長棒子,兼任他原本創意長的職務。

  倫敦桑福德伯恩斯坦公司(Sanford C. Bernstein)分析師歐特里(Mario Ortelli)說,貝里接棒之際精品業正在極化,他必須決定是要朝更高檔發展,挑戰普拉達(Prada)與路易威登(Louis Vuitton)等品牌,還是以沒那麼貴的產品鎖定更廣的客群。

  艾倫茲掌舵將近8年期間,Burberry營收翻逾1倍,股價則翻漲2倍多。

  歐特里提到,艾倫茲在公司走到十字路口時離開,沒有明確的發展策略。「我們認為,在像Burberry這樣龐大且複雜的公司中,即使像貝里這樣才華洋溢的人才,也很難有足夠時間同時扮演好兩種角色。」

  自2001年從古馳(Gucci)加入Burberry以來,貝里把一家以格紋大衣著稱的英國公司,轉型成全方位精品業者。他運用新色彩和材料活化Burberry的經典設計,並推出Prorsum和Brit成衣系列等高價產品,以及訂製和童裝。

  這位曾在Donna Karan任職的得獎設計師,將在接任執行長時繼續掌管Burberry的創意部門。身為2009年接下的創意長,他也負責Burberry包括廣告和店面設計的整體形象。

  匯豐(HSBC)分析師蘭姆柏(Erwan Rambourg)表示,雖然貝里已證明是位非凡的設計師,但以執行長之姿經營公司的表現還有待觀察。

分析
  • 艾倫茲(Angela Ahrendts)將領導蘋果零售事業部是 Apple Inc., 很好的佈局;
  • 若能將精品風格結合穿載式裝置、價格策略,會讓 Apple Inc., 走出自已的成長路線;
  • 以 Apple Inc., 產品,iPhone、iPod 、 iPad 、 Mac 、 pple TV box、iCould、Apple store 及 iTune 來看 ,沒有 Apple smart HDTV 將使 Apple Inc., 減少相當多營收,獲利也會減少;
  • 由 Microsoft、Apple、Chrome 搜尋趨勢看,Apple Inc., 只要再多開放一些 iOS 功能且增加 office 常用之軟體,是可以再度增加市場占有率;
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2013年10月14日 星期一

全球房地產投資,看的是安全性及租屋市場 - 有些海外及台灣房地產還是可以考慮 ( Global real estate investment, looking at the safety and rental market )

全球房地產投資 台灣是最佳地點
Costa Rica, San Jose, a very good place for the investment

近來有不少房仲業者將觸角延伸到海外,大力鼓吹台灣民眾把資金投向海外。但東森房屋董事長王應傑卻認為,全球房市最好的投資地點是台灣。他還挑戰及質疑同業,批評很多房仲推薦的海外投資效益報告根本是不負責任,只突顯投報率、卻刻意隱藏可能風險。

房仲業店頭紛開拔海外

近幾年來有多家房仲將店頭開向海外,從日本、中國、東南亞各國等,還積極提出多項投資效益分析,日本6%以上最高,就算是近年來幾已泡沫崩盤的中國各城市都誇稱2%以上投報率。

王應傑直言,這些投資效益都是不負責任的分析,分析裡都沒有說明風險,以日本為例,投資不動產是有6%投報率,但是要課徵買方「不動產登錄稅」、「取得稅」、「印花稅」等,這些費用加起來約是房屋總價的3~4%,還有總價5%消費稅,另有總價3%仲介費加六萬日幣,賣方也要付3%仲介費。他說,站在保護台灣投資者立場,房仲業理應要強化風險管理,日本經濟起伏大,且日本財稅部門對海外投資客收取所得稅、消費稅也是十分積極,並有高昂維護費,或是碰到不好的代辦業者等,都會吃掉投報率,可能賺了租金、賠了房價,最後就是負投報,加上台灣人未必會懂當地法律,只有風險加劇。

不應鼓勵台灣人投資中國房市

王應傑也以中國為例,強調中國政府近年來積極打房,且經濟成長也下降,從限建、限貸加限購等,手法各異,更大風險是法治不明,各省環境差異性太大,當地產業者都被套牢了,還叫台灣人去投資,是很不負責任的作法。
Panama, Panama city is also a good place

他認為,到陌生的地方投資是一件危險的事,一定要切記,台灣是台灣人最熟悉的地點,從法律到環境都熟悉,且台灣法治明確,投資是比較可靠的地方。王應傑也提醒,投資台灣房地產也要有選擇及做功課,例如最近被部分市調機構或代銷炒作很高調的台中及高雄市,都要小心選擇。

投資房市要勤做功課

他說,近來建商到高雄買地,一坪地買到230萬元,號稱未來有一坪超過30萬元豪宅行情,但他才在9月初買高雄辦公室50坪花500萬元,一坪才10萬元,是位在高雄四維及三多路口的16樓大樓中的5樓,那個路口周遭有多家金融機構,是高雄的金融區,之前東森在高雄市中山路租透天店面當辦公室,一個月租金4.5萬元,如此一比較下來,一年省了十多萬元租金。

數月前他也買下台中辦公室,在正中港路上的長億大樓,每坪15.8萬元,買一百坪,附近的新建大樓竟號稱一坪要賣60~70萬元,隔條馬路一坪價差四倍?很難想像,而長億大樓還是正中港路,理應更具價格的支撐力才對,王應傑說,真不知道行情從哪裡來?

王應傑認為,近來房價是有回跌,且利率仍低,是適合買進作為自住自用房子,但要注意不能隨某些人起舞,有些是刻意哄抬價格,台中、高雄的空屋率都很高,不錯地點的大樓各有優點,房價也適宜,只要好好做功課及比價,就可以投資。

不再所向無敵!美債危機難解 美元將喪失儲備貨幣地位

美元向來是全球各國政府的儲備貨幣,具有領導地位,也全球企業通用的貨幣,且為各國央行大量持有,以應變緊急狀況。因為美國經濟向來都是全世界的火車頭,美國政府在債務合約上也不曾出過大亂子,故全球央行才會以美元作為儲備貨幣,可說是最安全的賭注。然而,《TIME》雜誌指出,因美國府會尚未就債務上限達成共識,美元作為主要儲備貨幣的地位已經開始動搖。歐洲央行(ECB) 管理委員暨奧地利央行總裁Ewald Nowotny也指出,全球最重要貨幣受到國內情勢影響相當危險,美元的長期地位已經受到影響。

《TIME》雜誌指出,若觀察過去3年美國遭逢債務上限危機時,海外購賣美國國庫券的數量(美國政府發行的短期債券 Treasury bills)便可以發現端倪。高盛銀行近日出具報告表示,2011年8月美國府會對峙期間,購買美國國庫券的數量大幅下降,直到國會達成共識將債限上調後,購買數量才又反彈。《TIME》雜誌指出,若美國僵局繼續使市場情緒緊繃,未來世界各國央行將很有可能不再使用美元作為儲備貨幣,可能會轉而使用歐元,甚至新興國家貨幣。

「債務違約」這件事情,可是美國自1776年建國以來,從未發生過的事情,若美國府會真的無法在在本週四(17日)提高舉債上限,將可能造成嚴重後果,波及全球金融市場。若美國債務違約,那就代表美元已經失去部分支付能力、儲蓄能力及購買力,將造成美元貶值。如此一來,美國債市的資金將流入亞洲貨幣市場,造成亞洲貨幣升值壓力增大。

國際經濟機構也相當關注美債危機,國際貨幣基金(IMF)主席拉加德(Christine Lagarde)把美債限危機與2008年金融風暴相提並論;歐洲央行官員也表示,若美國真的違約倒債,美元將會喪失做為全球主要儲備貨幣的地位 。此外,中國社會科學院世界經濟與政治研究所研究員余永定也表示,美國不應該因國內的政治僵局而綁架了全球經濟,這是一種相當不負責任的行為。

美元向來都是全球央行的儲備貨幣,若真的要找尋其他貨幣來替代,也不是一時半刻的事情。但是已經有許多經濟學家開始呼籲,應該訂定一個新的系統,以全球主要貨幣組成一個貨幣籃子,再以這些主要貨幣作為全球的儲備貨幣,而非單一使用美元。《TIME》雜誌指出,若美元真的喪失儲備貨幣地位,可能會使全球金融市場陷入一陣混亂時期,未來在美國的借貸成本也將會一併升高,但是好處是,或許這樣也能催生另一種新的儲備貨幣,使全球的貨幣系統更平衡。                

分析
  • 台灣房地產是需要假設持續上漲,才有投資價值,否則,台灣房地產租金收益率很低,還不如做人民幣定存;
  • 参考上表許多國家房租收益率高於 6.0% 、租金稅又低如 Costa Rica, San Jose、Panama, Panama City、New Zealand, Auckland、Mexico, Mexico City、Puerto Rico, San Juan、UAE, Dubai、Thailand, Bangkok、Jordan, Amman 城市真的引起我的興趣, 我甚致覺得『每平方公尺/人均所得』 ( Price.Sq.M/Gdp ) 未超過 18% 之城市是很值得注意 ,由於美債違約風險拉高,反而是理財分散投資風險之其中一選擇,勿集中於一種商品;
  • 根據各國稅率,許多國家房地產投資稅率是很低的,由其是我們只做租金收入時,幾乎是非常低的稅率,既使考慮遺產稅
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