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台灣的央行、保險公司、銀行和券商在美國國債的投資總額預估相當可觀，並且這些投資在面對關稅戰和貨幣戰等經濟情況時，具有重要的戰略意義。Taiwan's central bank, insurance companies, banks and securities firms are estimated to have a considerable total investment in U.S. Treasuries, and these investments are of great strategic significance in the face of economic situations such as tariff wars and currency wars.
台灣對美國國債的投資總額Taiwan's total investment in U.S. Treasury bonds
央行的投資：Central bank investments
根據報導，台灣央行的外匯存底約為5770億美元，其中約80%至92%投資於美國國債，這意味著央行持有的美國國債金額在4600億至5300億美元之間。According to reports, Taiwan's central bank's foreign exchange reserves are about US$577 billion, of which about 80% to 92% are invested in US Treasuries, which means that the amount of US Treasuries held by the central bank is between US$460 billion and US$530 billion.
保險公司：Insurance companies
台灣的壽險業持有約2904億美元的美國政府公債，這使得保險公司在美國國債的持有量上也相當可觀。Taiwan's life insurance industry holds about $290.4 billion in U.S. government bonds, giving insurance companies a sizable stake in U.S. Treasuries.
投資金額：券商在美國國債的投資金額相對較小，具體數字不易獲得，但根據市場趨勢，券商通常會透過複委託的方式協助客戶購買美國國債，這部分的資金流動性較高，且隨著市場需求而變化。The amount of investment that brokerage firms make in U.S. Treasuries is relatively small, and specific figures are difficult to obtain. However, based on market trends, brokerage firms usually assist clients in purchasing U.S. Treasuries through re-entrustment. This part of the funds has higher liquidity and changes with market demand.
Truckload tender volumes (OTVI) remain the weakest of the three major demand-side indicators in SONAR. In contrast, loaded inter-modal containers moving by rail (ORAILL) are averaging more than a 7% year-over-year increase, and container import bookings (IOTI) are showing similar gains after clearing the Lunar New Year period.
The takeaway: The freight market remains in a holding pattern, while financial markets struggle to interpret what seems to be an ongoing trade policy standoff. 重點：貨運市場仍處於等待狀態，而金融市場則難以解讀似乎持續的貿易政策僵局。
At the time of writing – a caveat now necessary in any discussion involving tariffs due to the pace of change – tariffs on Chinese goods have climbed to 125%, placing immense pressure on businesses that source products from China. 在撰寫本文時——由於變化速度太快，任何涉及關稅的討論都需要提出警告——中國商品的關稅已攀升至 125%，這給從中國採購產品的企業帶來了巨大壓力。
China remains the dominant origin for containerized goods entering the U.S. by sea. Many companies began diversifying their supply chains away from China following the COVID pandemic, which exposed the risks of over-dependence on Chinese manufacturing. Some of this shift began during the Trump administration as trade tensions intensified.
This most recent wave of tariffs and negotiations has left many supply chain managers in limbo. Many had expected more time and clearer guidance to move production to countries like Mexico and Vietnam. Instead, a series of blanket tariffs – including early measures targeting North American trade partners – has left them uncertain about their next steps.
Meanwhile, truckload demand has dropped nearly 10% over the past year, as shippers increasingly turn to inter-modal solutions for domestic transportation. 同時，由於托運人越來越多地轉向多式聯運解決方案進行國內運輸，卡車運輸需求在過去一年中下降了近 10%。
美國的海運和陸運數據正在下降，這一趨勢對經濟造成了負面影響，主要是由於關稅政策引發的進口成本上升和市場不確定性。在當前的貿易戰背景下，中美貿易量減少的情況下，美元走弱和美國公債利率升高的現象可以從以下幾個方面來解釋：U.S. sea and land transport data are declining, a trend that has had a negative impact on the economy, mainly due to rising import costs and market uncertainty caused by tariff policies. In the context of the current trade war, the weakening of the US dollar and the rise in US Treasury bond yields can be explained in the following ways:
總體來看，美國的海運和陸運數據下降反映了經濟活動的減少，這對供應鏈、消費者行為和整體經濟增長都可能產生深遠的影響，台灣則注意長榮、陽明海運。Overall, the decline in U.S. sea and land transportation data reflects a reduction in economic activity, which could have far-reaching implications for supply chains, consumer behavior, and overall economic growth.
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