2015年9月26日 星期六

愛是一生最重要,才能健康與快樂 ( "A Love So Beautiful", Michael Bolton, Life with love will be much better for your health )

"A Love So Beautiful"

The summer sun went down on
Our love long ago
But in my heart I feel the same
Old afterglow

A love so beautiful
In every way
A love so beautiful
We let it slip away

We were too young to understand
To ever know
That lovers drift apart
And that's the way love goes

A love so beautiful
A love so free
A love so beautiful

A love for you and me
And when I think of you
I fall in love again

A love so beautiful
In every way
A love so beautiful
We let it slip away

And when I think of you
I fall in love again

A love so beautiful
We let it slip away

A love so beautiful
In every way
A love so beautiful
We let it slip away

生命充滿愛,才能健康與快樂,養生很重要一部份愛是心靈的養份







2015年9月23日 星期三

Gartner:2015 年全球PC、平板、手機,終端裝置總銷售金額較2014衰退5.7%, 全球IT將進入淘汰賽 ( Gartner Says 2015 Worldwide PC, Tablet, Ultramobile and Mobile Phone total sale revenue decline 5.7% )

2015年PC、平板與手機之裝置出貨量年增1.5%

Gartner 2015 預測重點
  • 包含PC、平板電腦、手機、混合裝置2015年全球出貨將達24.54億台,年成長率僅達1.5%。
  • 2015 開始平板電腦、PC的都減緩。
  • 2015年全球手機出貨預估將成長至19.4億支。
  • Gartner預估,2015年包含PC、手機、平板電腦、 Ultramobile (例如平板與筆電2合1裝置)等裝置合計出貨將達24.54億台規模,較去年成長1.5%, Ultramobile 取代PC的購買力
根據市場研究機構Gartner最新研究指出,2015年全球裝置出貨量包括個人電腦、平板電腦、超行動裝置以及行動電話在內的全年出貨量將達到24.54億台,比起2014年的24.19億台,年成長率達1.5%,比起先前預估的2.8%還要低了1.3個百分點。

Gartner下修預估的原因在於美元升值帶來PC零售價格增加,使得西歐、俄羅斯與日本的PC購買動力減退,因而開始造成些微衝擊。因而,從全球裝置的終端支出來看,2015年全球裝置的終端支出金額為6056.33億美元,比起2014年的6419.26億美元,還要衰退5.7%,這是自2010年以來第一次呈現衰退的情況。可見得美元升值的確對於2015年全球裝置造成了衝擊。

整體來說,2015年上半年隨著Windows XP的PC時代結束,對於PC銷售產生負面的影響。然而,最大影響依舊是美元升值。因為雙重因素,使得PC廠商不敢在通路上放太多庫存,預估2015年底將壓低在5%以下,以免突如其來的貨幣兌換損失讓原本毛利就非常微薄的PC產業帶來更大衝擊。

根據統計2015年全球PC出貨量將達到3億台,比起2014年的3.14億台還要衰退4.5%。Gartner預估到了2016年之前,全球PC出貨量都不會有太好的表現。Gartner認為2015年7月29日即將上市的Windows 10將緩慢帶動行動電腦與Premium的超行動裝置於專業市場的表現,到了2016年由於隨著價格穩定才會帶來實質貢獻。

至於平板電腦與混合平板的超行動裝置將於2015年呈現萎縮的情況,預估2015年出貨量為2.15億台,比起2014年2.26億台,年成長率衰退5.3%。其中,單純平板電腦於2015年出貨量為2.07億台,年成長率衰退5.9%。總結來說,2015年平板電腦依舊遇到三大難題,包含新購物者少、產品生命週期長、以及較少創新激發替換需求。所以平板電腦只是錦上添花的裝置,並沒有真正的需要能刺激消費者成為購買必需品。

Gartner認為平板電腦的產品生命週期又必須延長三年至2016年,使得2016年底之前,於成熟國家之中的平板電腦普及率可達50%。

至於手機市場於2015年成長率為3.3%,因為中國大陸市場的需求不再像以前強勁,畢竟,首次購機的群眾變少,且市場逐漸飽和。這使得性能強大的手機廠商愈來愈吃香。此外,中國大陸以外的新興市場對於功能手機需求仍在,除了廠商能夠有效降低智慧型手機的整體成本,否則手機成長將變緩慢。

Gartner:2014年全球PC、平板、手機合計出貨將達到24.19億台

Gartner 2014 預測重點
  • 包含PC、平板電腦、手機、混合裝置2014年全球出貨將達24.19億台, 較去年成長6.9%。
  • 今年開始平板電腦取代PC的效應將逐漸減緩。
  • 2014年全球手機出貨預估將成長至19億支。
  • 2014年全球平板將出貨2.7億台,傳統PC為2.76億台。
  • Gartner預估,2014年包含PC、手機、平板電腦、 Ultramobile (例如平板與筆電2合1裝置)等裝置合計出貨將達25億台規模,較去年成長6.9%,平板電腦取代PC的現象將逐漸放緩
Gartner 研究總監 Ranjit Atwal 表示,由於消費者及企業以適合的裝置作適當的使用,今年開始平板電腦取代筆電的情形將會逐漸減緩。我們將會觀察到,專用裝置像是平板電腦,或是可變形設計的混合裝置將會各有所需。
Only cloud business continue to grow up than PC, NB and Smart Phone

儘管平板電腦取代PC的現象將減緩,但平板電腦成長及PC出貨衰退下,這兩類裝置出貨差距縮小。2014年全球平板電腦出貨將成長38.6%達到2.7億台左右規模,傳統PC(包含筆電與桌上型電腦)出貨從去年的2.96億台減少至2.76億台,平板電腦與傳統PC僅差約600萬台,Gartner預估明年平板電腦出貨量將達到3.49億台,一舉超越傳統PC的2.63億台

儘管Gartner認為平板電腦取代PC的現象逐漸減緩,但平板電腦持續成長,傳統PC出貨不斷減少下,明年平板電腦出貨將遠遠超越傳統PC。以智慧型手機、平板電腦先後超越傳統PC來看,PC業者勢必得加緊進入兩個市場的腳步。
Asia internet users continue to grow and mobile internet also grow much
各類裝置中手機仍是佔最大比例的裝置,今年預估全球手機出貨達近19億支,比2013年增加4.9%,成長動能來自高階手機市場中的較低階產品,還有低階手機市場中較高階的產品。Gartner指出,雖然手機硬體缺乏亮眼的創新延緩成熟市場汰換需求,但新興市場手機升級彌補了市場的動能。
E-commence in Asia grow a lot

手機市場成長動能來自迷你旗艦機種,以及高性價比的低階手機。去年Sony、三星、華碩、HTC相繼推出迷你旗艦手機。

從作業系統角度來看各類裝置,2014年Android裝置將出貨11.71億台,其中大多數為手機,Google計劃擴大Android平台至其他裝置市場,蘋果iOS及Mac OS出貨量約為2.86億台,Windows裝置出貨約3.39億台。

Gartner Says Worldwide Traditional PC, Tablet, Ultramobile and Mobile Phone Shipments to Grow 4.2 Percent in 2014

Worldwide combined shipments of devices (PCs, tablets, ultramobiles and mobile phones) are projected to reach 2.4 billion units in 2014, a 4.2 percent increase from 2013 (see Table 1), according to Gartner, Inc.

"2014 will be marked by a relative revival of the global PC market," said Ranjit Atwal, research director at Gartner. After declining 9.5 percent in 2013, the global PC market (desk-based, notebook and premium ultramobile) is on pace to contract only 2.9 percent in 2014.

"Business upgrades from Windows XP and the general business replacement cycle will lessen the downward trend, especially in Western Europe," said Mr. Atwal. "This year, we anticipate nearly 60 million professional PC replacements in mature markets." The traditional PC market (desk-based and notebook) will follow the same downward trend and is on pace to contract 6.7 percent in 2014 and 5.3 percent in 2015.

Table 1
Worldwide Device Shipments by Segment (Thousands of Units)
Device Type
2013
2014
2015
Traditonal PCs (Desk-Based and Notebook)
296,131
276,221
261,657
Ultramobiles, Premium
21,517
32,251
55,032
PC Market Total
317,648
308,472
316,689
Tablets
206,807
256,308
320,964
Mobile Phones
1,806,964
1,862,766
1,946,456
Other Ultramobiles (Hybrid and Clamshell)
2,981
5,381
7,645
Total
2,334,400
2,432,927
2,591,753
Source: Gartner (June 2014)

As with any devices, adoption goes through phases from the early to the late adopter; tablets are currently moving onto the latter part of that curve in mature markets. Gartner estimates that sales of tablets will see a relative slowdown in 2014 to reach 256 million units, an increase of 23.9 percent from 2013. Lower demand from users for tablets with smaller screens, some in favor of larger screens, in mature markets, and the shift towards phablets in South-East Asia are slowing global tablet penetration. "The next wave of adoption will be driven by lower price points rather than superior functionality," said Mr. Atwal.

Sales of mobile phones are expected to reach 1.9 billion units in 2014, a 3.1 percent increase from 2013. Sales of smartphones, which exceeded those of the rest of the market in 2013, will continue to do well, and Gartner estimates that smartphone sales will represent 88 percent of global mobile phone sales by 2018 — up from 66 percent in 2014.

In the operating system (OS) market, Android and iOS are driving the growth with a 30 percent and 15 percent increase, respectively, in 2014 (see Table 2). "We expect the announcement of the new Apple iPhone 6 will attract pent-up demand for users who want a larger screen," said Annette Zimmermann, research director at Gartner. "Windows phones will exhibit strong growth from a low base in 2014, and are projected to reach a 10 percent market share by 2018 — up from 4 percent in 2014."

Gartner Says Worldwide Server Shipments Market Grew 1.3 Percent in the Second Quarter of 2014 While Revenue Increased 2.8 Percent

In the second quarter of 2014, worldwide server shipments grew 1.3 percent year-over-year, while revenue moved upward 2.8 percent from the second quarter of 2013, according to Gartner, Inc.

"The second quarter of 2014 produced relatively weak growth on a global level, with mixed results by platform," said Jeffrey Hewitt, research vice president at Gartner. "All regions showed growth in both shipments and vendor revenue except for Eastern Europe, Japan and Latin America.”

Eastern Europe fell 5.6 percent in units and 1.6 percent in vendor revenue; Japan declined 4.3 percent in units and 2.5 percent in vendor revenue; and Latin America dropped 16.5 percent in units but managed to produce a vendor revenue increase of 6.7 percent for the quarter, highest among all regions. The platform mix by region and geographic variations in economic conditions are the main reasons for these results. Overall, Middle East and Africa posted the highest shipment growth with a 6 percent increase, while Asia/Pacific, North America and EMEA grew by 5 percent, 1.6 percent and 0.8 percent in the second quarter.
"x86 servers managed to produce an increase of 1.4 percent in units in the second quarter of 2014, and an 8.1 percent increase in revenue. RISC/Itanium Unix servers fell globally for the period, a 23.2 percent decline in revenue and 7.9 percent decrease in shipments compared with the same quarter last year. The 'other' CPU category, which is primarily mainframes, showed a decline in vendor revenue of 2.2 percent," Mr. Hewitt said.

HP was the worldwide server market leader, based on revenue in the second quarter of 2014 (see Table 1). The company posted nearly $3.2 billion in server revenue to account for 25.1 percent of worldwide server revenue.

In server shipments, HP remained the worldwide leader in the second quarter of 2014 (see Table 2). HP's worldwide server shipments declined 2.9 percent, as shipments totaled nearly 570,000 units. Dell, the No. 2 vendor based on shipments, had a unit decline of 11.4 percent.

In terms of server form factors, blade servers fell 4.3 percent in shipments but rose 7.2 percent in revenue for the quarter. The rack-optimized form factor climbed 2.9 percent in shipments and 3.6 percent in revenue in the second quarter of 2014.

Gartner Says Worldwide PC Shipments in the Third Quarter of 2014 Declined 0.5 Percent

PC Growth in Mature Markets Was Offset by a Decline in Emerging Markets

Worldwide PC shipments reached 79.4 million units in the third quarter of 2014, a 0.5 percent decline from the third quarter of last year, according to preliminary results by Gartner, Inc.

“Growth in the mature markets was offset by a decline in shipments in emerging markets, similar to what was seen in the second quarter of 2014,” said Mikako Kitagawa, principal analyst at Gartner. “Positive results in Western Europe and North America can be a sign of gradual recovery for the PC industry.

“Consumers’ attention is slowly going back to PC purchases as tablet adoption peaked with mainstream consumers. The transition from PCs to tablets has faded as tablet penetration has reached the 40-50 percent range.” In contrast, weakness in the emerging market reflects the saturation in selected consumer segments where they can afford PCs. In the meantime, consumers who don’t have PCs will likely buy low priced tablet. This is a one of the major reasons for the slow growth in PC shipments in the emerging market.”
For the first time, the sum of the top five vendors' share reached two-thirds of the worldwide PC shipments. All top 5 vendors showed stronger growth compared to the industry average. Scale is one important success criterion for vendors to survive in the PC market. Some vendors have already scaled back or have withdrawn from the PC business — namely, Sony and Samsung — and in 3Q14 Toshiba also announced plans to restructure its PC division.

Lenovo extended its position as the worldwide leader in PC shipments, as it accounted for 19.8 percent of the market in the third quarter of 2014 (see Table 1). Lenovo did especially well in EMEA as it achieved more than 40 percent growth over the third quarter last year. It also had year-over-year growth in Asia/Pacific, despite the region showing a decline overall.

While its overall growth rate slightly declined in PC shipments, HP was able to post single-digit growth to maintain the No. 2 position worldwide. HP was the No. 1 vendor in EMEA and the U.S. While HP announced its intention to split the company into two companies, the impact to the PC business operation should not be significant. Dell had another strong quarter, and the results indicate that Dell’s commitment and investment into the PC market has been consistent since it went private.

In the U.S. market, PC shipments totaled 16.6 million units in the third quarter of 2014, a 4.2 percent increase from the same period last year. This was the third quarter in a row with positive shipment growth.

“Consumers’ wallets were gradually coming back to PCs, although back to school sales season was not exceptional,” Ms. Kitagawa said. “More availability of affordable touch-based laptops, price drops of thin and light laptops, and 2 in 1 hybrid laptops will attract consumers this holiday season.”

HP maintained the No. 1 position in the U.S. market accounting for 27.8 percent of PC shipments in the third quarter of 2014 (see Table 2). Dell increased its share to 24.1 percent, followed by Apple with an estimated 14.3 percent share of PC shipments in the U.S.

PC shipments in EMEA totaled 24 million units in the third quarter of 2014, a 9.6 percent increase from the same period last year (see Table 3). After two years of declining quarterly market share, the EMEA PC market has recorded growth every quarter since the start of 2014.

“The continued growth in the EMEA PC market reflects the end of official support for Windows XP and the need to replace older PCs,” said Ranjit Atwal, research director at Gartner. “Consumer demand has also improved. We’ve witnessed lower notebook prices and promotional offers on two-in-one hybrid devices attracting buyers back. Many tablet early-adopters are considering a hybrid two-in-one product as a viable alternative to a replacement tablet.”
HP retained the No. 1 position overall in EMEA due to better results in the professional PC segment, but the gap is tightening between HP and Lenovo (see Table 3). Lenovo held the No.2 spot with continued strong performance in the consumer PC segment, marking nine consecutive quarters of double-digit growth. In the third quarter of 2014, Lenovo recorded a 45 percent increase in shipments year-on-year.

In Asia/Pacific, PC shipments surpassed 26.2 million units in the third quarter of 2014, a 5.3 percent decline from the third quarter of 2013. The market remained challenging, especially in China where the PC purchasing appetite has slowed due to more pragmatic consumer and government IT spending. Business desk-based PC demand has been steady, suggesting a continuing replacement cycle due to the end of Windows XP support.

These results are preliminary. Final statistics will be available soon to clients of Gartner's PC Quarterly Statistics Worldwide by Region program. This program offers a comprehensive and timely picture of the worldwide PC market, allowing product planning, distribution, marketing and sales organizations to keep abreast of key issues and their future implications around the globe.

Gartner Says Worldwide IT Spending on Pace to Grow 2.1 Percent in 2014

Worldwide IT spending is on pace to total $3.7 trillion in 2014, a 2.1 percent increase from last year, however, this grow rate is down from earlier projections of 3.2 percent growth, according to the latest forecast by Gartner, Inc. (see Table 1). The slower outlook for 2014 is attributed to a reduction in growth expectations for devices, data center systems and to some extent IT services.
“Price pressure based on increased competition, lack of product differentiation and the increased availability of viable alternative solutions has had a dampening effect on the short term IT spending outlook,” said Richard Gordon, managing vice president at Gartner. “However, 2015 through 2018 will see a return to ‘normal’ spending growth levels as pricing and purchasing styles reach a new equilibrium. IT is entering its third phase of development, moving from a focus on technology and processes in the past to a focus in the future on new business models enabled by digitalization.”

The Gartner Worldwide IT Spending Forecast is the leading indicator of major technology trends across the hardware, software, IT services and telecom markets. For more than a decade, global IT and business executives have been using these highly anticipated quarterly reports to recognize market opportunities and challenges, and base their critical business decisions on proven methodologies rather than guesswork.

The devices market (including PCs, ultramobiles, mobile phones, tablets and printers) is forecast to grow in 2014, but not as much as predicted in the previous quarter’s forecast, reaching $685 billion, a 1.2 percent increase from 2013. This is due to lower price points expected across mobile phones and tablets. As tablet penetration reaches 50 percent in U.S. households, sales of high-end tablets will decrease, with the next wave of adopters more attracted to lower priced utility tablets. The result is the mix of tablets shifting from basic tablets to utility tablets resulting in lower price points.

Data center systems spending is projected to reach $140 billion in 2014, a 0.4 percent increase from 2013. Constrained spending levels continue to negatively impact the revenue opportunity for data center systems, particularly with external controller-based (ECB) storage. ECB storage spending is suffering from the combined effects of underutilized systems in the installed base, as well as lower-cost alternative architectures and cloud-based storage. The server market also shows weakness as enterprises migrate away from high-cost platforms toward lower-cost alternatives. The hyperscale segment, primarily driven by consumer-oriented services, does provide some positive drivers to the market, albeit for very low-cost platforms, which further impacts overall spending levels on data center systems.

IT services is forecast to total $967 billion in 2014, up 3.8 percent from 2013. Following weak vendor performance in 2013 across multiple geographies and segments, modestly improved spending is expected through 2014. IT outsourcing is growing slower than expected as sharply reduced pricing by the largest vendors is impacting the cloud storage services market. In addition, public cloud services are proving increasingly cannibalistic to more traditional data center outsourcing services. Implementation services are also growing slower than expected as risk-averse buyers remain focused on smaller, safer projects and some of the largest sellers remain focused on maintaining margins over growing revenue.

In the enterprise software market, spending is on pace to total $321 billion, a 6.9 percent increase from 2013. Slightly increased growth expectations for infrastructure software are balanced out by slightly lower growth expected for applications software. Within infrastructure, the database management system (DBMS) software market is expected to have strong growth as DBMS adoption is driven by big data and digitalization initiatives. Slower growth is expected in the applications market, specifically office suites and digital content creation (DCC), which are being impacted by slow PC sales and the rapid move to cloud-based offerings by many organizations and professionals.

Telecom services spending is projected to grow 0.7 percent in 2014, with spending reaching $1,635 trillion. Voice average revenue per user (ARPU) will decline by about 10 percent annually through 2018 because of a decline in consumer use of voice services — particularly among prepaid users. “Increased competition between communication services providers is leading to price competition,” said Mr. Gordon. “Emerging low-cost or free/advertisement-subsidized mobile data services and low-cost services from mobile virtual network operators that target less-lucrative segments are impacting ARPU more than initially expected."

沒創新照樣熱賣?iPhone 6s 首波預購額度完售!要買再等一個月

iPhone 6s/6s Plus sell very well, woow?
iPhone 6s /6s Plus 即將於本週五(25 日)於首賣國家上市,不過還沒真正開賣,現在就已經傳出預購狀況超乎預期,外傳首賣的 12 個國家,官網上都已經搶購一空;且依照蘋果(Apple Inc)官網上的資訊來看,若現在購買,不管是搭配哪一家電信,消費者都還要再等 3 到 4 週才能拿到新 iPhone。

國外科技媒體 9to5Mac 報導指出,想買新款 iPhone,最早的交貨日也要等到 9 月 29 日; iPhone 6s Plus 現有的備貨早在一週前就被搶購完畢,iPhone 6s 則在前幾天也已被搶光。

蘋果目前尚未給出官方的預購數字,僅表示新機銷量將有希望超過去年 iPhone 6/6 Plus 首賣週末的銷售紀錄;蘋果先前也宣布,消費者對於 iPhone 6s 的反應「非常熱烈」(extremely positive),且預估首賣週末的銷量將有望超過 1000 萬台。(iPhone 6s 首週賣破千萬支?蘋果:這只是小意思)

依照慣例,新 iPhone 銷售一空的所需要的週期更短,而今年的預購於 9 月 12 日開跑,距離正式開賣的時間比以往多了一週的緩衝,代表蘋果可能正準備增加更多庫存,並且藉此提高預購量。

不過如果你仍希望在 9 月 29 日之前拿到新 iPhone,也不是完全不可能。蘋果已經表示,本週五會有更多庫存,想要在第一時間購買的民眾,可以到門市排隊搶購;不過不是每個國家的門市都有貨,蘋果表示,iPhone 6s 僅會在美國免稅州、中國、日本、香港的門市接受購買。

分析

2015年9月19日 星期六

從美、日、歐印鈔至中國大幅貨幣寬鬆,卻帶來全球通縮 - 中國大泡沫及全球需求不足之衝擊 (China economic drop impact to world wide economic is the deflation spreading)

中國製造業警報拉響!失業潮即將來臨?

World wide fall into deflation due to China over supply and over production ? if it is true, China will be a bubble
中國8月財新製造業PMI初值47.1,是2009年3月來最低,為連續第六個月低於榮枯線下,顯示中國製造業運行進一步放緩。PPI繼續大幅度下滑,工業企業的利潤被進一步壓榨。7月鐵路貨運量暴跌10.9%,發電量大跌2.8%。一切都顯示,經濟蕭條越來越嚴重了。《貴陽在線》報導指出,由觀察各行業的近期情勢,可以發現中國製造業的前景確實不容樂觀。

以電子業為例,今年上半年,金仁寶、三星加快撤離步伐,偉創利遠赴美國設廠,富士康大舉進軍印度,曾經風靡全球的中國電子產業走上了下坡路。若觀察數家最具代表性的電子企業7月財報,如鴻海、廣達、仁寶、和碩、華碩、宏碁、英業達、友達、群創、光寶科、緯創、台達電等,可以發現營收較 6 月份全線下跌,是中國電子行業由盛轉衰的強烈信號。依此趨勢看,下半年中國電子業下降10%-20%並非不可能。

空調行業:上半年零售額下降27%,下半年基本沒戲

China M1 growth rate from 2008 is about 120%, it is a crazy growth in human history but it cannot drive economic
after 2015 due to China domestic consumption and need relative to GDP is too small %
上半年,中國空調市場受天氣、經濟下行、房地產低迷等多重因素的影響,空調銷量甚至可用慘不忍睹來形容。綜合各電商(天貓,蘇寧易購、國美在線、京東),量販店(國美、蘇寧),以及各專業店(傳統經銷商)的前三季度銷售數據(9月份未統計,但就空調行業,15財年已結束),來看,整體空調行業實際零售額下降27%

下半年空調進入淡季,特別是二線及以下城市房地產陷入冰封,2015年上半年空調市場需求下滑幅度將出乎意料的加大。空調如此,其它家電也好不到哪兒去。

快消品行業:食品飲料需求穩定,化妝品大幅下降

數據統計顯示,2015年上半年,貝因美、三元股份、科迪乳業業績同比下降。蒙牛營收微降,伊利增長速度也出現下滑。匯源果汁雖然營收增長,但卻錄得虧損。娃哈哈、可口可樂、雙匯、雀巢、康師傅等企業均出現不同程度的業績下滑。

食品飲料作為人們的基本需求,銷售量穩如磐石自不必說。但在人們收入大減,財富被房地產綁架的今天,日化用品行業就沒那麼好運了。一家入華十六年的世界五百強化妝品公司的員工透露,該公司今年全國銷售第一次連續五個月出現十個點以上的下滑,利潤下滑更在二十個點以上。而給外資化妝品企業提供包裝的深圳通產麗星,繼去年首現虧損後,今年上半年營收和利潤再次狂跌,日化用品的行情之差可見一斑。

紡織服裝行業:紡織業倒閉潮不斷,服裝業內外交困

近期,紡織行業新聞不斷,先有紡織巨頭莊吉集團也在5月份宣告破產,再有華東紡織大鱷寶利嘉集團老闆欠債跑路,前不久,曾經風光無限的100年紡織老廠濟南國棉一廠也破產了,另一家世界五百強浙江紅劍集團也傳出破產倒閉的消息。

服裝業行業則內外交困,一方面內需斷崖式下跌,大批服裝老闆拖欠工資跑路。另一方面,大量外單流向東南亞等人工成本低廉的國家。優衣庫、無印良品、青山商事、利豐、東京 STYLE、Honeys 都在加快向東南亞轉移訂單。

製鞋業:外資基本跑光,內資鞋廠成片倒閉

從08年開始,港台鞋業就開始了大逃亡。台灣寶成、綠洲鞋業、華堅集團、賜昌鞋業等巨頭早已在海外站穩腳跟,接下來便是全盤東移。不僅是珠三角,在浙江溫州、福建晉江等製鞋基地都在轉移或關閉。由於人工成本、廠房租金、物流成本居高不下,大量中小鞋企成片倒閉。

建陶衛浴:產能嚴重過剩,更大的倒閉潮即將到來

由於08年後瘋狂擴張,中國建築陶瓷和衛浴的年產能全世界人民即使全部使用中國貨也需要二到三年才能消化完成。近年隨著房地產轉趨冷淡,倒閉潮洶湧澎湃。由於房地產行業屬於耐用消費品行業,一旦停止建房,恐怕建陶衛浴的需求都會極度萎縮,並且保持長達十到二十年的低潮。

家具行業:巨頭紛紛破產,小廠如秋風落葉

自從2014年起,大型家具企業倒閉層出不窮。去年深圳家居巨頭華源軒、富之島宣告破產,今年5月3日擁有23年曆史的廣州標卓家私破產,有“東莞家具航母”之稱的東莞永信家具製造有限公司也相繼倒閉。據最新數據統計,兩年來僅深圳龍崗、東莞厚街、佛山龍江三個鎮倒閉的家具廠多達849家

汽車配件包裝:流水落花春去也!

前幾年,中國汽車銷售保持站每年10%以上的增長,並成為世界頭號汽車消費大車,也令國內汽車配件廠紅火了好幾年。然而,進入2015,當眾多汽車廠家仍在做著錦繡繁華的中國夢時,汽車突然買不動了。7月,長安汽車產銷分別為16.2261萬輛和16.2179萬輛,同比分別下滑22.29%和8.36%。中國7月份汽車銷量報150萬輛,同比下跌7.1%;乘用車銷量127萬輛,同比下跌6.6%。創2013年2月以來的最大降幅。

面臨加速下行的經濟走勢,中國眾多的實體企業已經拋棄了短時間經濟轉暖的幻想,開始大量裁員來應對訂單的縮減並減少企業運營成本。上半年,聯想、惠普、億滋、三星、HTC等世界知名企業已經啟動了裁員計劃。

在接下來的半年時間,鋼鐵、機械、電子、家電、家具、建陶、衛浴、地板、五金等與房地產緊密關聯的行業很可能發生激烈的裁員潮。沙鋼、大眾、通用、格力等五百強企業都可能出現在裁員名單上。此外,汽車、造紙、食品飲料、包裝印刷、日用化工甚至互聯網行業,都會發生不同程度的裁員潮。

中國震盪全球通縮

中國引發的全球股災似乎完結,但真的沒事了嗎? 剛好相反,暗潮正洶湧。 現在是人類史上,無前例可循、人人不知所措的處境:全世界都陷進通貨緊縮的巨大流沙裡。
US money supply M1 growth rate from 2008 is about 110%, also cannot overcome deflation effect from China

如今世人發現,當強國不強,更令人害怕,尤其是其他地區經濟已經低迷的此時。中國不是稻草,而是最後一根巨木,將全世界推進更深更大的通縮流沙裡。「中國把通縮硬塞給全世界,」有債券天王之稱的葛洛斯說
US retail sales also drop down in 2015

他指的不是中國最近的大震盪引發全球通縮,而是過去二十年,中國過度投資和過剩生產,把全世界現在和未來好幾年的潛在需求,給提前榨乾了

受中國市場萎縮打擊和被紅色供應鏈取代的台灣,在中國轉型不順,被迫改採進一步、退半步的舞步空檔裡,是否能因此得到喘息空間?要如何抓緊機會,才能在產業結構和內外需各方面找到新出路,逃出通縮流沙,保得未來二十年安康?

物價下跌總是受消費者歡迎,但長期物價下跌,會讓經濟窒息。通縮殺傷力之強,日本就是最好例證。日本景氣呈現L型走勢,足足失落了將近三十年。

如今全球陷入通縮,「日本殭屍化,全球日本化」的可能性會有多高?世界各國必須經驗、工具、智慧、方法和決心都齊全,才有可能度過難關。
問題就在於,唯一對長期通縮有經驗的是日本,而日本至今仍然找不到方法逃出通縮流沙,GDP和民間消費年增率都在往下走,安倍經濟學並沒有發揮長效。

被孫明德形容是「拔劍四顧心茫然」的美國聯準會,升息喊了許久不敢升,怕的就是會捺熄了僅剩的一點經濟成長、助燃了已經火光熊熊的通貨緊縮。如果已經放話九月升息的聯準會,九月十六、十七日的決策會議決定不升息,證明美國的通縮壓力確實不輕。

當強國不強 更令人害怕

亞洲金融危機、○八年美國引發的金融海嘯、○九年歐債危機中,中國扮演全球經濟救世主的角色,出錢、出市場,撐住了很多國家的貨幣和許多跨國企業的營收。如今不是希臘,反而是中國,變成全球最大的危機。龐大中國艦隊駛入了淺水區,「新常態」水位下降,暴露出整個中國的各行各業,其實都在裸泳。
world wide trading in USD will be less than WTO prediction due to deflation, so it mean GDP growth of export
country like China, Taiwan, Korea, Germany will be slump

中國的勞力紅利、工資紅利、土地紅利和稅費紅利都沒有了。但是以它十三億人口和發展落差的開發需求,中國市場中長期仍有令全世界驚艷的理由。

但短期之內,青黃不接,讓中國不再能夠扮演全球經濟火車頭的角色。其結果是,拉著這幾年受惠於中國崛起帶動出口的亞洲四小龍,以及原料出口的新興國家一起沉淪,導致全世界最後一塊「樂土」也消失了。
Due to deflation of world wide will impact to trade total value in USD, crisis trends will happen
在前一波的股災裡,全世界不難發現股價跌得最凶的,幾乎全都是各國的「中國概念股」,包括蘋果、歐美精品業者,以及德國許多重度依賴中國市場的設備廠商和高級汽車。

《南德意志報》用「中國病」來形容,當中國不強,給世界帶來的衝擊。

「幾年前,人們不需要太擔心世界經濟,無論西方國家經歷什麼樣的風暴,總是還有中國和新興市場可以依靠,」報導中說,「如今西方企業經歷的不是個別國家的走弱,而是新興國家整體走弱,這對奧迪這樣中國銷量佔三分之一的企業而言,是一個詛咒。」

China’s Crude Oil Storage Outlook

Over the past few months, with oil prices at historical lows, China imported more oil than it needed, putting extra capacity into storage and boosting monthly imports to a high of 7.2 million barrels per day in December. According to price reporting agency Platts, around 300,000 barrels per day were likely earmarked for commercial storage and strategic petroleum reserves (SPR). But analysts disagree over how long China’s import streak can continue in the face of rising stockpiles.

While an import boost may have provided a floor for oil prices, the country doesn’t look poised for a massive increase in crude imports unless private companies boost storage capacity faster than anticipated. Analysts say that while importing crude at $50 per barrel is cheaper than a significant portion of domestic production, demand for oil in China is currently tepid.
China import from Russia increase but decrease from other countries,
it is obvious a strategy against US and Europe 

Over a longer period, a new government policy and action by private companies could boost storage capacity and incremental imports. In the short term, analysts warn that storage projects are likely to take a year to come online, meaning any project not in the pipeline now will have minimal impact this year. Most analysts expect imports will slowly begin to align with actual demand as storage capacity is tapped out. But others are more bullish; in a research note, Bernstein wrote that it expects “stronger demand” in 2015, especially as fuel switching from natural gas to oil occurs.

Government Policies

A new policy issued late last month requires Chinese refiners to hold between 10 days of processing capacity when crude oil prices are above $130 per barrel and 15 days when they are lower. With more than 14 million barrels per day of refining capacity, Bloomberg estimates that threshold requires refineries to hold between 211 – 141 million barrels. But Suresh Sivanandam, an analyst at oil consultancy Wood Mackenzie, thinks this is unlikely to significantly impact storage levels. “We think they already meet this demand for 15 days,” said Sivanandam.

Analysts say China wants 90 days of crude oil coverage – the recommended amount by the IEA – but it’s unclear if that is just the strategic petroleum reserve (SPR) or if includes private stockpiles as well. According to Sivanandam at Wood Mackenzie, 90 day holdings of imported oil use – China imports around 6 million barrels a day – equates to around 600 million barrels of oil storage capacity. By 2020, that number rises to 700 million barrels.

But SPR is only around 140 million barrels. “If you look at the plans, there’s a large gap,” said Sivanandam.  It’s also what is driving the investment in private storage. Phase two of SPR should be finalized by 2020. In a research note, Bernstein estimates that China can add another 100 million barrels to storage over the coming year.

If China is cagey about its SPR figures, getting a handle on commercial inventories is even more difficult. Wood Mackenzie estimates that CNPC has around 3.7 million barrels of storage. Listed CNPC subsidiary PetroChina didn’t respond to inquiries about their storage capacity. An industry publication put out by the state news agency Xinhua said the country had around 244.6 million barrels of commercial crude stockpiles at the end of 2014.

Complicating matters further is that significant storage volumes are not held by the state or state-owned companies, but instead in private hands. Tracking capacity in China is exceedingly difficult, according to analysts, but according to Sivanandam “our gut feel is [private actors] dominate the capacity in terms of the private storage space.”
Major import country in the world will be China due to US produce
more crude oil from 2014

But storage held by non-state actors might have big impacts on the market. “Independent storage companies are boosting their tank capacity in the hope of making a profit by selling the oil when prices rise,” said industry expert Philip Andrews-Speed.

As more private companies get into the business of storing oil, hoarding is likely to become a problem. Earlier this month, the government’s top economic body sent investigators to Zhengzhou, in Henan province to investigate gasoline hoarding before an announced price hike (in China, retail prices are set by the government, meaning an announced increase in retail prices can lead to hoarding).

Still, with maturing fields and some domestic production likely to shut-in because of high costs, Chinese production growth is likely to slip by 1%, according to a note by Bernstein Research, meaning China will need to bump up imports.


From China stock price peak point and oil price peak point, we suspect that oil price of world wide did not touch
its lower point of price due to China is on the over import of oil than before, not the real need of import
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