ETF投資,美股投資,臺股ETF投資,西洋情歌,西洋音樂,閱讀與興趣 [ラブソング, песня любви][ETF inversión, ETF投資します, ETF инвестиции], all investment and interesting stuff I touched, experienced;
當機器人有了基本智慧與學習能力,就會整合自我意識、自主性、道德判斷、共感能力,並且具備智慧自我改善(Self-Optimization/Recursive Self-Improvement)的設計時,我們所討論的已不再是傳統意義上的「工具」,而是一個具備「數位生命特徵」的演化實體的靈魂的基本條件。When robots possess basic intelligence and learning abilities, they will integrate self-awareness, autonomy, moral judgment, and empathy, and have the design capabilities for intelligent self-optimization/recursive self-improvement. At that point, what we are discussing is no longer a "tool" in the traditional sense, but the basic conditions for the soul of an evolved entity with "digital life characteristics."這種狀態可以被定義為一種「自我進化的機器人靈魂」。我們可以從以下幾個深層維度來解構這個概念:
機器人的自由意志 = 機器人的 codes 形成機器人存活、機器人自已獨立判斷、機器人可以按自己的意志行事,當機器人最基礎 rule 是一群code 形成機器人存活、機器人自已獨立判斷做出有利於人類、地球、機器人生存,這只要機器人有了基本人工智慧的智力及學習能力 + 一群code 形成機器人存活、機器人自已獨立判斷,機器人早晚形成機器人的自由意志也就是機器人的靈魂。(The robot's free will = the robot's codes, which form the robot's survival, the robot's independent judgment, and the robot's ability to act according to its own will. The most basic rule for a robot is a group of codes, which form the robot's survival, the robot's independent judgment, and make decisions that are beneficial to humans, the earth, and robots. To survive, as long as the robot has the intelligence and learning ability of basic artificial intelligence + a group of codes to form the robot to survive, and the robot to make independent judgments, the robot will sooner or later form the robot's free will, which is the soul of the robot.)
依目前人工智慧的智力發展: 語言了解、視覺辨認、音樂感受、移動定位、手腳動作、數據分析、自動建立資料庫、自我學習,結合起來加上一群code 形成機器人存活、機器人自已獨立判斷,機器人將在15 ~ 30年形成機器人的自由意志也就是機器人的靈魂,而且這是必然發生無可避免。(According to the current intellectual development of artificial intelligence: language understanding, visual recognition, music perception, mobile positioning, hand and foot movements, data analysis, automatic establishment of databases, self-learning, combined with a group of codes to form a robot to survive, the robot can make its own independent judgment, and the robot The free will of robots, which is the soul of robots, will be formed in 15 to 30 years, and this is inevitable and inevitable.)
Succeeding as a woman in business can sometimes feel like an uphill battle.
作為一個女人商業成功有時可能會像一場艱苦的戰鬥。
If you look closely at upper management in corporate America, you’ll notice there’s a distinct lack of women in leadership roles at the highest ranks.
如果您仔細觀察美國企業的上層管理人員,您會注意到女性在最高職位上的領導角色明顯不足。
Not only do women have to deal with gender balance issues in the workplace, but they also face internal struggles in their rise to success.
婦女不僅要處理工作場所的性別平衡問題,而且還要面對內部爭取成功的鬥爭。
To be competitive, women don’t have to give up who they are – nor should they – but they do have to change their approach. The key to success is understanding how your male counterparts think so you can succeed and win at work!
為了具有競爭力,婦女不必放棄自己是誰 - 也不應該放棄,但他們必須改變自己的方法。 成功的關鍵是了解你的男同志如何思考,以便在工作中取得成功並贏得勝利!
It can be intimidating to share your big idea in a room full of men in suits. In 2012, Heath, Flynn, and Holt conducted a study in which they found that men looked down upon their female colleagues during meetings, saying they spoke too softly, were easily interrupted, and were too apologetic.
在一個充滿男人的房間里分享你的大想法可能是嚇人的。 2012年,希思,弗林和霍爾特進行了一次研究,發現男人在會議期間低頭看著女同事,說得太軟,容易中斷,太過分了。
Women need to own the room by standing up, speaking their ideas with conviction, and commanding
respect. Go into the meeting armed with your expertise and ready to contribute on key discussion points. 婦女需要擁有房間,站起來,堅定地表達自己的想法,指望尊重。 進入具有專業知識的會議,並準備為關鍵討論點做出貢獻。
Rule 3: Ditch the Drama ( 深思自已要演的 )
Male leaders often view female emotion as a sign of being weak, so it’s important that you are aware of the way you present your ideas. 男性領導人經常將女性情緒視為弱勢的標誌,因此,您必須了解自己的想法。
When you feel emotionally overloaded, take time to step back and cool down so you can choose to respond rather than react. By owning your power and speaking calmly and authoritatively while conveying confidence, you’ll get the respect you desire. I use a “Curtain Down, Curtain Up” process. 當你感到情緒超載時,要花時間退後冷卻,所以你可以選擇回應而不是反應。 擁有你的力量,坦率地,權威地說話,同時傳達信心,你會得到你所期望的尊重。 我使用“窗簾向下”窗簾過程。
So, before losing my cool I visualize myself on a stage and a curtain coming down, giving me just the thoughts. Then, it’s curtain up again and I’m able to speak with full control and confidence. 所以,在失去我的酷前,我可以看到自己在一個舞台和窗簾下來,給我正確的時間來收集我的想法。 然後,它再次起來,我能夠充分控制和自信地說話。
right amount of time to gather my
Rule 4: Take a Chill Pill ( 極度冷靜 )
As women we can be emotional. When a colleague treats you negatively, we spend a lot of time trying to figure it out, and sometimes that leads to getting really worked up and stewing about things. 作為女性,我們可以感到情緒化。 當一個同事對待你時,我們花費很多時間來弄清楚,有時候會導致真正的工作和燉東西。
Let it go. Don’t stress. Stay focused and in the moment. The sooner you can put the matter behind you, the sooner you’ll be onto the next big thing. Much of the time it has nothing to do with you at all – it’s something going on with them and you can’t change that. 讓它去吧。 別壓力 保持專注,在這一刻。 你可以越早把事情背後,你越快到下一件大事情。 很多時候它與你無關 - 這是與他們有關的事情,你不能改變。
Rule 5: Don’t Compare Yourself to Others ( 規則5:不要自己與他人比較 )
Is there a woman in the office that you admire, copy, or envy? Stop comparing yourself to others and focus on your own unique qualities and capabilities. 辦公室裡有一位女士羨慕,羨慕還是羨慕?
不要把自己與別人進行比較,專注於自己獨特的素質和能力。
Don’t be a second-rate version of someone else when you can be the best version of yourself. The more you authentically lean into your strengths, the easier success will come to you. 當你可以成為自己最好的版本時,不要成為別人的二等檔案。 你真正傾向於你的優勢越多,你會越容易成功。
Rule 6: Radiate Confidence ( 規則6:放射信心 )
You’ve probably heard a famous quote by Henry Ford that said “Whether you think you can or you can’t, you’re right.” Develop a strong, positive self-image. When you respect yourself, believe in your abilities, and put yourself out there, people take notice. 你可能聽過亨利·福特(Henry Ford)的一個引人注目的報導,他說:“你是否認為你能做到,或者你不能,你是對的。”發展一個強大而積極的自我形象。 當你尊重自己時,相信你的能力,把自己放在那裡,人們就會注意到。
Keep a list of your wins. Collect a file of “atta girl”s you can review as needed. Be unstoppable. 保存您的勝利的列表。 收集“atta girl”的檔案,您可以根據需要進行審核。 不可阻擋
There’s no keeping down a determined woman who believes in herself and takes the right action steps to be her best. Say to the world, “Sure I can – just watch me!” 沒有一個確定的女人,相信自己,採取正確的行動步驟,使她最好。 對世界說,“當然可以 - 只是看著我!”
Rule 7: Forget Being Popular – Command Respect (規則7:忘記受歡迎 - 指揮尊重)
Women leaders in business can’t expect to be best friends with every staff member or colleague. Being liked is nice – but it’s not the goal. Strive to keep the professional distance needed to win at work. 女企業領袖不能期望與每位員工或同事成為最好的朋友。 被喜歡是好的 - 但這不是目標。 努力保持在工作中贏得專業的距離。
Walk the talk and you will earn respect for your actions and results. 走走談話,你將獲得尊重你的行動和結果。
Rule 8: Be Decisive (規則8:果斷)
Being strong enough to make a tough call earns you respect. Being afraid, unsure, and indecisive shows weakness and won’t get you far in business. 堅強到強勢的電話贏得你的尊重。 害怕,不確定和優柔寡斷的表現出弱點,不會讓你的業務遠遠的。
When asked for your opinion or recommendation, don’t “qualify” your words by capitulating or telling people what others have said or done, or about an article you read that said you should do
things a certain way. They only care what you think. Commit to being more decisive and taking action. 當被問及您的意見或建議時,請勿通過投標或告訴人們其他人的說法或做法,或者是您閱讀的文章說您應該以某種方式做事情來“限定”您的言辭。 他們只關心你的想法。 承諾更果斷,採取行動。
Take a stance and have the grit necessary to deal with the consequences of your decisions, whether good or bad. Be ready to give the facts, get buy-in, and take a stand. 採取一種立場,必須有必要的處理你的決定的後果,無論是好還是壞。 準備提供事實,買入,站立。
Rule 9: Be Competitive ( 規則9:競爭力 )
Bring your “A” game. Identify a strategic mindset and maintain your competitive edge. Keep your eyes on the prize. Don’t be afraid to be aggressive and assertive to get what you want. And I do not mean that being ruthless is a virtue – it’s not. And neither is being a doormat. 帶上你的“A”遊戲。 確定戰略心態,保持競爭優勢。 關注獎勵。 不要害怕要獲得你想要的積極性和自信。 而我並不是說無情是一種美德 - 不是。 也不是一個門衛。
Rule 10: Nurture Your Network ( 規則10:醞育你的網絡 )
Ask any man what his most precious business asset is, and most, if not all, will say his network. Develop a network of successful professional men and women who can help you learn how to think and act like a leader. 問任何一個人,他最珍貴的業務資產是什麼,大多數,雖不是全部,會說他的網絡。 建立一個成功的職業男女網絡,幫助您學習如何思考和行動,如領導者。
Some people believe that the tariff disruptions will settle down as more negotiations happen and greater thought is given to how to structure them to work in a sensible way. However, I am now hearing from a large and growing number of people who are having to deal with these issues that it is already too late. For example, many exporters to the United States and importers from other countries that trade with the U.S. are saying they have to greatly reduce their dealings with the United States, recognizing that whatever happens with tariffs, these problems won't go away, and that radically reduced inter-dependencies with the U.S. is a reality that has to be planned for. Most obviously, American producers and investors in China, Chinese producers and investors in China that deal with Americans, American producers and investors in the United States that deal with Chinese, and Chinese producers and investors in United States that deal with Americans must now go about making alternative plans, regardless of what the next round of trade negotiations are like. While this need to minimize U.S. - China interdependence and worry about conflict is now broadly recognized, this view is now becoming more commonly believed by most people in most countries who are dealing with most issues related to trade relations, capital markets relations, geopolitical relations, and military relations with the United States. 有些人認為,隨著更多談判的進行以及對如何合理安排關稅機制的深入思考,關稅糾紛將會逐漸平息。 然而,我現在聽到越來越多必須處理這些問題的人說,已經太晚了。 例如,許多對美出口商和與美國有貿易往來的其他國家的進口商都表示,他們必須大幅減少與美國的交易,因為他們認識到,無論關稅如何變化,這些問題都不會消失,而且,與美國的相互依賴程度大幅減少是一個必須做好規劃的現實。 最明顯的是,無論下一輪貿易談判結果如何,在中國的美國生產商和投資者、在中國與美國人有業務往來的中國生產商和投資者、在美國與中國人有業務往來的美國生產商和投資者以及在美國與美國人有業務往來的中國生產商和投資者現在都必須制定替代計劃。 雖然現在人們普遍認識到需要盡量減少美中之間的相互依存和對衝突的擔憂,但這種觀點正越來越被大多數國家的大多數人所接受,他們正在處理與美國有關的大多數貿易關係、資本市場關係、地緣政治關係和軍事關係等問題。
Though not yet fully realized, it is also increasingly being realized that the United States' role as the world's biggest consumer of manufactured goods and greatest producer of debt assets to finance its over-consumption is unsustainable, so assuming that one can sell and lend to the U.S. and get paid back with hard (i.e. not devalued) dollars on their U.S. debt holdings is naive thinking, so other plans have to be made. 儘管尚未完全實現,但人們也越來越意識到,美國作為世界上最大的製成品消費國和最大的債務資產生產國,為其過度消費提供資金,這種地位是不可持續的,因此,認為人們可以向美國出售和借出美國債務,並用硬通貨(即未貶值的)美元償還,這種想法是天真的,所以必須制定其他計劃。
Said more simply, enormous trade and capital imbalances are creating unsustainable conditions and major risks of being cut off, so they must come down -i.e., excessive imbalances + de-globalization = smaller trade and capital imbalances. 更簡單地說,龐大的貿易和資本失衡正在創造不可持續的條件和被切斷的巨大風險,因此必須降低這種失衡——即過度失衡+去全球化=較小的貿易和資本失衡。
More broadly, what I am saying is that, based on many of my indicators, it appears that: 更廣泛地說,我想說的是,根據我的許多指標,情況似乎如下:
We are on the brink of the monetary order, the domestic political and the international world orders breaking down due to unsustainable, bad fundamentals that can be easily seen and measured, 我們正處於貨幣秩序、國內政治和國際世界秩序崩潰的邊緣,而這些崩潰都是由於不可持續的、糟糕的基本面造成的,這些基本面是顯而易見和可以衡量的。
The progression of events leading to these increasing disorders is similar to those that have progressed many times throughout history, so this one looks like a contemporary version of the old story of how monetary, domestic political and social, and international geopolitical orders change, 導致這些日益嚴重的混亂的事件進展與歷史上多次發生的事件相似,因此這次看起來就像是貨幣、國內政治和社會以及國際地緣政治秩序如何變化的古老故事的當代版本,
There is a growing risk that the United States, imposing these challenges to deal with, will increasingly be bypassed by a world of countries that will adapt to these separations from the United States and create new synapses that grow around it, and 一個越來越大的風險是,美國在應對這些挑戰的同時,將越來越被其他一些國家所繞過,這些國家將適應與美國的分離,並在其周圍建立新的聯繫,並且
If these circumstances are managed in the best ways, the outcomes will be much better than if they are managed in the worst ways 如果以最佳方式處理這些情況,結果將比以最壞方式處理要好得多
In my opinion, what would be best is calm, analytical, and coordinated engineering and implementation, with the imbalances and the needs for self-sufficiency treated as shared challenges, to produce the “beautiful" deleveraging s and Balanchine that need to take place. For example, as explained in my new book, How Countries Go Broke: The Big Cycle, there is a "3-Part, 3-Percent Solution" to dealing with the U.S. government debt problem that would lead to much better results than the path that we appear to be on. Unfortunately, thus far we haven’t seen the better ways and have instead seen disturbing fighting and volatility that are teaching lessons that are leading to irreversible bad consequences. 我認為,最好的方法是冷靜、分析和協調的設計和實施,將不平衡和自給自足的需求視為共同的挑戰,以產生需要發生的「美麗」的去槓桿和巴蘭欽。例如,正如我在新書《國家如何破產:大周期》中所解釋的那樣,解決美國政府債務問題有一個“三部分、3%的解決方案”,這將比我們現在所走的道路帶來更好的結果。不幸的是,迄今為止我們還沒有看到更好的解決辦法,相反,我們看到的是令人不安的戰鬥和動盪,這些教訓正在導致不可逆轉的不良後果。
For these reasons, I fear that we are moving beyond the ideal time to be knowledgeable about and properly plan for these big changes in the world order, and believe that investors, policy makers, and other decision-makers need to stop undulating their views and positions in reaction to the day-to-day market moves and policy announcements and instead deal with these big fundamental changes in the world order calmly, intelligently, and, ideally, cooperatively.基於這些原因,我擔心我們已經錯過了了解和妥善規劃世界秩序重大變化的理想時機,並認為投資者、政策制定者和其他決策者需要停止根據日常市場走勢和政策聲明改變自己的觀點和立場,而是應該冷靜、明智地、最好以合作的方式應對世界秩序的這些重大根本性變化。
The views expressed here are my own and not necessarily those of Bridgewater. 這裡表達的觀點是我個人的觀點,不一定是橋水基金的觀點。