研調：台廠TV/NB/DSC明年代工量恐同步衰退
拓墣產業研究所於10/2舉行2014年 ICT 產業大預測研討會。針對台灣 ICT 產業發展，拓墣指出，儘管明年台灣包含電視、筆記型電腦、數位相機等主要電子產品代工出貨量均可能較2013年衰退，但平板電腦、手機代工仍將成長。其中，2013年台廠液晶電視出貨量估達4100萬台，明年出貨量估3100萬台、年減估達23%。主要係因為台廠電視代工過去多依賴日本品牌，但SONY決定回收委外代工訂單、9成以上電視改為自製，並且Panasonic、Sharp委外代工訂單也都縮減。
其它產品方面，台廠2013年筆記型電腦代工出貨量估達1.42億台，明年可能降到1.33億台、年減估7%，這是因為聯想、三星均提高自製比率、降低台廠代工訂單。台廠數位相機DSC代工今年出貨量估4100萬台，明年可能僅剩3100萬台、年減估23%，原因在於整體消費型數位相機DSC市場規模持續萎縮。
至於手機與平板電腦，台廠平板電腦2013年代工出貨量估達1.27億台，明年出貨量估達1.45億台、年增14%，主要動能在於亞馬遜、華碩(2357)、宏碁(2353)平板電腦出貨成長，進而帶動台廠平板電腦代工規模擴大。台廠手機代工2013年出貨量估6.65億台，明年上看7.5億台、年增12.8%，主因是SONY、NOKIA出貨成長，帶動台廠手機代工訂單增加。
以全球來看，拓墣預期，2013年全球液晶電視出貨量估達2.03億台，2014年可能增至2.12億台、年增4%。筆記型電腦今年出貨量估1.72億台，明年達1.62億台、年減6%。平板電腦今年出貨量估1.72億台，明年挑戰2.06億台、年增20%。手機今年出貨量估18.6億台，明年上看19.7億台、年增近6%。數位相機今年出貨量降到7800萬台後，2014年可能續減至6600萬台、年減估達16%。
若就台灣與中國大陸個別品牌與代工廠市佔率變化加以比較，根據拓墣觀察，台灣主要手機品牌廠如宏達電(2498)，今年市佔率估約2.5%，明年可能降到2%，中國手機品牌廠如中興、華為、聯想、酷派今年市佔率合計約20%，明年可能挑戰25%。不過，在手機OEM/ODM代工部分，台廠華冠(8101)、華寶(8078)今年市佔率估7%，明年將可望提升到8%-10%，中國卓翼、比亞迪、聞泰、龍旗等手機代工廠今年市佔率估5%、明年可能降到4%。
筆記型電腦產業鏈方面，台灣宏碁、華碩兩大品牌廠今年市佔率合計估達21%，明年可能降到20%，中國聯想今年市佔率估16%，明年挑戰17%。而台灣NB代工廠包含廣達(2382)、仁寶(2324)、緯創(3231)、和碩(4938)、英業達(2356)合計今年市佔率估83%，明年料降至82%，中國NB代工廠包含聯寶、寶龍達等今年市佔率估4%，明年預計倍增至8%。
電視產業鏈來看，中國實力亦持續上升。台廠電視品牌包括大同、奇美、聲寶，2013年、2014年市佔率合計可能都僅0.1%，中國電視品牌廠包含海爾、海信、創維、TCL、康佳合計市佔率2013年將達26%，2014年上看28%。台廠TV代工競爭力則呈現倒退之勢，包含仁寶、冠捷、緯創、和碩、景智、瑞軒（2489），2013年電視代工市佔率估達20%，但2014年可能縮水到15%。相較之下，中國同方、兆馳電視代工市佔率今年估近4%，明年則達6%。
電視關鍵零組件方面，據調查，電視面板供應商今年仍以友達（2409）、群創（3481）合計市佔率達32%、明年估30%最大（但市佔率亦下滑），而中國電視面板供應商包括京東方、華星光電2013年市佔率估近16%，2014年挑戰20%。電視控制IC目前則仍以台廠領先，聯發科(2454)、F-晨星(3697)今年電視IC合計市佔率估達64%，明年仍有60%。
另外，拓墣認為，Tesla崛起也引領資訊化進入汽車產品。汽車電子等各項車用產品，可能會從早期GPS導航、升級到各式各樣應用。對台灣零組件供應商來說，目前Tesla Model S大約12%零組件係來自於台廠包含F-TPK宸鴻（3673）17吋觸控面板、F-貿聯(3665)電池動力線束、高力(8996)馬達硬銲加工、致茂(2360)機電控制模組與測試裝備、和大(1536)變速箱齒輪、六方精機零件機械加工都是受惠廠商。
不僅如此，汽車與智慧型手機結合亦將提供整合式服務新商機。雖然目前手機與汽車連動功能還局限於語音聲控等一些簡單車內功能，例如溫度調控、電話撥打等。但未來若手機能與汽車數據連結並直接讀取車輛參數，將可直接依據路況與車況作出適度調整，或藉由網路連結以APP軟體連動，形成所謂 knowledge Based。
對於近期熱門的穿戴式裝置，拓墣強調，網路化穿戴式裝置將衍生更多新機會，例如智慧眼鏡、智慧手錶等等，透過眼球追蹤、手勢操控、腦波偵測、智慧體感、觸控螢幕等各種方式輸入參數後，藉由某些顯示技術輸出資訊，這其中就可能帶動相機模組、特種感應器、觸控面板、觸控IC、透明顯示器、可撓式顯示器、虛擬立體投影技術等等的新需求。
Microsoft threatened as smartphones and tablets rise, Gartner warns
Microsoft faces a slide into irrelevance in the next four years unless it can make progress in the smartphone and tablet markets, because the PC market will continue shrinking, warns the research group Gartner.
It says a huge and disruptive shift is underway, in which more and more people will use a tablet as their main computing device, researchers say.
That will also see shipments of Android devices dwarf those of Windows
PCs and phones by 2017. Microsoft-powered device shipments will almost be at parity with those of Apple
iPhones and
iPads - the latter a situation not seen since the 1980s.
In a new forecast published on Thursday morning, Gartner says that by 2015 shipments of tablets will outstrip those of conventional PCs such as desktops and notebooks, as Android and
Apple's iOS become increasingly dominant in the overall operating system picture. Android in particular will be installed on more than a billion devices shipped in 2014, says Carolina Milanesi, the analyst who led the research.
Meanwhile a new category of "ultramobile" devices - such as the
Surface Pro and the lighter ultrabook laptops - will become increasingly important as people shift towards more mobile forms of computing.
For Microsoft, this poses an important inflexion point in its history, warns Milanesi. "Winning in the tablet and phone space is critical for them to remain relevant in this shift," she told the Guardian. "We're talking about hardware displacement here - but this shift also has wider implications for operating systems and apps. What happens, for instance, when [Microsoft] Office isn't the best way to be productive in your work?"
For Microsoft, income from Windows and Office licences are key to its revenues: per-
PC Windows licences generate about 50% of its profits, and Office licences almost all the rest.
But while it dominates the PC market, it is a distant third in the smartphone and tablet markets. Latest figures suggest that Windows Phone, its smartphone
OS, shipped on about 3% of devices in fourth quarter of 2012, compared to 20% for Apple's iPhone and over 70% for Android - of which 50% connected to Google's servers and 20% were "white box"
Android phones in China which do not use Google services.
"Android is going to get to volumes that are three times those of Windows," says Milanesi. "From a consumer perspective, the question becomes: what software do you want to have to get the widest reach on your devices?
BlackBerry may say that its QNX software [used as the basis of BB10 on its new phones] can go into cars and phones, but Android is already in fridges. That's the challenge."
BlackBerry, which has just released the first of its BB10 devices, is forecast to see a slow decline in shipments through to 2017, shipping 24.1m devices then compared to 34.7m in 2012. That will leave it well behind Windows Phone in the forecast.
Milanesi added: "the interesting thing is that this shift in device preference is coming from a shift in user behaviour. Some people think that it's just like the shift when people moved from desktops to laptops [a process that began in the early 2000s]. But that's wrong. The laptop was more mobile than the desktop, but with the tablet and smartphone, there's a bigger embrace of the cloud for sharing and for access to content. It's also more biased towards consumption of content rather than production.
"All these things will get consumers to look for the OS and apps that can give them all that," Milanesi says.
A key problem for Microsoft is that it is the people who don't yet own PCs - in emerging markets such as Africa and China - who are most likely to have a smartphone and tablet as their first "computer". Milanesi says: "They're starting with a smartphone, not a PC, so when they're looking for something larger, they look at something that's a replacement smartphone experience - which is a tablet or ultramobile device. And Android or [Apple's] iOS are the two that they're looking at."
Microsoft could then face the vicious circle where developers considering which platform to develop apps for look at those with the largest user base - and that that will not be Windows. By 2017, she says, the number of devices being shipped with iOS, both iPhones and iPads, will be close to that with Windows and Windows Phone combined.
"And that's not assuming that Apple launches a low-end iPhone," Milanesi says. "Our numbers for Apple are conservative, because for a low-end phone it would be a guess about what price point it would use, and what the timing would be." A number of observers have suggested that Apple will launch a lower-cost iPhone in the next year to capture a larger market share, especially in the pre-pay (pay-as-you-go) market. But Apple has given no indication of whether it will do that.
2013 全球智慧型手機出貨超越8億支 30% 成長率
根據 TrendForce 旗下研究部門 DRAMeXchange 調查，由於各零組件成本下滑，手機製造商紛紛推出中低價位智慧型機種搶攻市場大餅，功能型手機將逐漸退出市場。2012年智慧型手機出貨量預估將達6.50億支以上，相較2011年的4.60億支，整體出貨成長已超過40%。
展望 2013年，在3G基礎硬體建設逐漸完備，以及手機價格迅速貼近市場消費水平兩大條件下，智慧型手機出貨量可望持續攀升，TrendForce預估 2013年智慧型手機出貨量將可達到8.30億支以上，年成長率接近30%。值得注意的是中國品牌手機出貨成長幅度亮眼，預估明年中國品牌出貨量年成長將達50%，超越全球平均成長幅度。
TrendForce指出，目前市面上高價智慧型手機品牌眾多，最受矚目的仍屬蘋果(Apple)與三星(Samsung)。兩大品牌2012年出貨量合計約佔總體智慧型手機的50%，達3.30億支。2012年第三季推出的新產品 iPhone 5 更是創下最高預購量，第四季預估出貨可望來到4,500萬支，今年 iPhone 系列產品總銷量將超過1.20億支。 ..... 持續閱讀
分析
- 2013 全球智慧型手機出貨超仍以 30% 成長率，建議台廠做 Microsoft Win 8 RT、Android 等tablet 及 smart phone 混合型產品，走 Operator 通路，較易台廠轉型；
- 智慧型手機與平板電腦改變了人們之使用習慣趨勢與進而影響 Microsoft 產品市占率，Microsoft 目前還未有利器贏回市場。
- 智慧型手機與平板電腦內含 DSC 攻能，數位相機今年出貨量降到7800萬台後，2014年可能續減至6600萬台、年減估達16%。
