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2016年10月25日 星期二

台積電與 Intel 競爭白熱化開始,也形成ARM 與 Intel 競爭白熱化 (From TSMC Competition With INTEL In Technology And Business To ARM Competition With INTEL)

Intel危險?蘋果A10太強、對手無法比、媲美電腦CPU

蘋果iPhone 7採用台積電(2330)代工的「A10 Fusion」處理器,備受尊崇的晶片研究機構Linley Group分析這款晶片,直呼A10太強大,把對手打到落花流水,表現甚至優於部分電腦CPU。

巴倫(Barronˋs)21日報導,Linley Group主管Linley Gwennap報告指出,蘋果砸錢研發客製化CPU成果豐碩,iPhone 7性能優於其他旗艦機,甚至超越部分低階電腦。iPhone 7搭載A10 Fusion處理器,為蘋果首款採取big.LITTLE大小核的四核心晶片,內含兩顆高效能核心「Hurricane」,表現比前代高出35%;另兩顆核心「Zephyr」則更為省電。Hurricane和Zephyr都是蘋果的客製化核心。

Gwennap指出,Hurricane徹底擊垮對手。他引用Geekbench評比,A10處理器的單核跑分,遠勝三星電子Exynos 8890、高通驍龍820、華為麒麟955。儘管三星和華為在多核跑分表現出色,Gwennap說,多餘核心對應用程式沒有幫助,一般只需一或兩顆核心就能運作。

A10表現驚人是因為蘋果本錢雄厚,晶片比別家更大。處理器的晶粒(die)區域要價高昂,Hurricane卻大量使用,Hurricane面積為4.18平方公厘,尺寸約為其他廠商高階處理器的兩倍。蘋果不賣晶片賣手機,在晶粒多花個幾美元不打緊,只要能提高整體表現,讓產品更熱賣即可。
Gwennap稱,蘋果新CPU表現甚至優於英特爾(Intel)的x86核心,A10表現和英特爾Skylake的Core核心幾乎不相上下,差別在於英特爾Core核心用於電腦,不像A10一樣,有電池續航力的限制。這對英特爾是一大警訊,他說,蘋果CPU追上英特爾,實際上,Hurricane能輕鬆支援MacBook Air筆電等。當前蘋果筆電使用的英特爾晶片,速度比A10更慢。

目前蘋果iPhone、iPad使用自家處理器,但是筆電MacBook和個人電腦Mac仍然搭載英特爾CPU,外界老早盛傳,未來英特爾晶片可能會從蘋果產品全面淘汰,遭蘋果晶片取而代之

知名跑分軟體安兔兔(AnTuTu)1日發表9月前十大手機性能榜單,在9月1-30日期間蒐集超過2,000條單一機型數據後發現,iPhone 7 Plus的平均跑分成績高達172,644分、奪下冠軍,而iPhone 7的跑分也有170,124分,分數居次,把Android旗艦機遠遠拋在腦後。
蘋果(Apple)次代iPad Pro系列傳出將在明年春天出貨、且將搭載由台積電(2330)供應的A10X晶片,而最新傳出A10X晶片性能強大,單核跑分比前代A9X高出4成、且也比iPhone 7使用的A10晶片高出2成

日本網站taisy0、iPhone Mania 5日轉述荷蘭媒體TechTastic的報導指出,根據從可靠的消息人士取得的資料顯示,蘋果預計搭載在次代iPad Pro系列的「A10X」晶片GeekBench單核跑分達4,236、多核跑分達6,588。

The iPhone 7’s A10 Fusion Chip Is Faster Than The MacBook Air 

The majority of the iPhone 7’s improvements are under the hood, thanks to its new A10 Fusion chipset which makes it a quad-core phone versus the iPhone 6s which was still a dual-core setup. As we have seen on the AnTuTu benchmarks, this has unsurprisingly resulted in very high scores which has blown past the competition.

However it seems that’s not all. As noted by John Gruber (via MacRumors), the iPhone 7’s performance on Geekbench has revealed some very impressive single and multi-core scores which not only has outdone competing phones, but even Apple’s own products like the MacBook Air laptops.

Now there’s this perception that maybe because it is smaller and because it can’t do certain things that smartphones aren’t as powerful as laptops, and to a certain degree that is true for some models. However according to Gruber, he notes that the iPhone 7 has pretty much outdone every single MacBook Air Apple has ever released in both single and multi-core performance, save for the 2015 MacBook Air with an Intel Core i7 which only narrowly edges it out.

A follow-up tweet by Matt Mariska also revealed that the iPhone 7 managed to beat the $6,500 model of the 2013 MacBook Pro in single-thread performance. While obviously the iPhone won’t be replacing laptops anytime soon, it does go to show how far along Apple has come in the development of its A-series of ARM chipsets. Who knows, at this rate those rumors of an ARM-based Mac could come true, and it could be very well justified.

( Note: Mac Air CPU is 1.6GHz dual-core Intel Core i5 [Turbo Boost up to 2.7GHz] with 3MB shared L3 cache with 4GB onboard memory, but iPhone 7 is only 4 core ARM cotex A10 core with much less power consumption than Intel Core i5 )

A closer look at the ARM Cortex-A72

The Cortex-A72 was announced back in February, promising another boost to performance and substantial energy savings to boot. At ARM’s TechDay 2015 in London this week, we were fortunate enough to be given some deeper insight into the inner workings of ARM’s latest application processor.

Although the base-line architecture is very similar to the Cortex-A57, the A72 is much more than typical revision. A team of some 65 to 70 engineers have gone back through the design, optimizing almost every logical block for power efficiency, helping the processor to sustain maximum frequencies during heavy workloads, and focused on squeezing the design into a smaller area, to keep costs down.

Architecturally, the Cortex-A72 features a new branch-predictor, increases the effective decode and dispatch bandwidths, and has had changes made to the execution units, to name just a few alterations. ARMs new branch predictor reduces misprediction with a new algorithm and can suppress superfluous branch predictor accesses, which helps to reduce wasted energy. The rebuild offers up to 20 percent improvements to prediction over the A57.

The design still features a 3-wide decode, but the dispatch unit has gone from 3- to 5-wide, to more effectively break operations down into further micro-ops which help keep the 8-wide issue machine well fed. The execution stage sees the introduction of next-gen floating-point SIMD units with a
variety of latency reductions, multiple zero-cycle forwarding datapaths to reduce wasted cycles, and substantial bandwidth increases in the two integer units. The load and store units have a more sophisticated combined L1/L2 data prefetcher, offering a bandwidth improvement of 30 percent. All of which, among other changes, is designed to help reduce power consumption and to improve performance in certain areas over the A57.

In terms of what this means for silicon designers and end users, the Cortex-A72 is still a high-end processor, but it will utilize energy more efficiently.  In other words, the CPU will be able to do more within the limited power budgets available on mobile and should result in cooler devices as well. Even at 28nm, the Cortex-A72 boasts up to a 50 percent energy reduction when compared with the Cortex-A15 and a 20 percent saving compared with the A57, at the same clock speeds. Milliwatts per core have dropped from the A57, to around 700mW at 2.5GHz. The design takes up 10 percent less area than the A57, which will also help save on costs.

ARM is also increasingly focused on its POP IP, you’ll see quite a few references to TMSC’s 16nm FinFET Plus manufacturing node in the examples. As well as substantial energy savings, ARM reckons that the A72 will be able to sustain 2.5GHz clocks on the new 16nm process, whilst keeping within the limited smartphone power budget. It’s the additional power efficiency and resulting lower heat profile that will really help the A72 achieve higher clock speeds than a 16nm A57.

趨勢分析

2013年11月1日 星期五

Google 加上摩托羅拉 = 開源碼, DIY, 開放硬體智能手機平台 ( Google + Moto = Open source + DIY + Open hardware block Smart phone platform )

摩托羅拉開發DIY智能手機:可自由組裝

北京時間10月30日上午消息,谷歌旗下摩托羅拉移動本周表示,該公司已經啟動了“Ara項目”,希望創造一套免費、開放的準化平台,讓用戶可以自由選擇自己想要的手機配件,然后組裝起來。

這個項目的目標是製作一套手機框架,可以根據用戶的偏好向其中添加不同的模組,包括處理器、電池或存儲晶片。“我們的目標是在用戶、開發者和他們的手機之間創造更體貼、更有表達力且更為開放的關係。讓你擁有手機功能、外形、地、材料、成本、使用時間的決定權。”摩托羅拉移動。

摩托羅拉移動的DIY智能手機將採用其母公司谷歌的 Android 手機平台,該平台免費向各大廠商開放,並且允許廠商進行定製。相比於蘋果公司的iOS系統,Android 還為用戶提供了更多功能上的自主權。

摩托羅拉移動表示,該公司的 Ara 項目已經啟動一年多時間,最近剛剛與開源項目 Phonebloks 展開了合作,后者也在創建模組化的智能手機零部件,方便用戶替換。

摩托羅拉移動今年早些時候剛剛推出了 Moto X 智能手機,允許用戶自主選擇前后蓋和按鈕的色。

在 Phonebloks 的官方網站上,該公司設想了未來的場景:用戶可以通過在商店了解智能手機零部件的各種評論,然后購買新模組或二手模組,並且定製手機。

其實早在1980年代和1990年代,就有很多精通技術的消費者使用硬碟、電源、CPU等零部件組裝台式機。但當定製難度較大的筆記本普及后,這種情況逐漸減少,但電腦零部件仍在以準尺寸生,而且仍然可以直接安裝到多數PC上。

摩托羅拉移動表示,該公司將繼續公開研發這一項目,並製作了一些實驗性模組。該公司計劃邀請開發者,並招募“Ara偵察兵”幫助其研究和完成這一項目。

Motorola's 'Project Ara' modular smartphone setup switches out hardware like apps

We were intrigued by the Phonebloks concept phone that teased the ability to switch out a handset's components the way most users change ringtones, and now Motorola is putting its resources behind it. In what Motorola calls Project Ara, the advanced Technology and Products group is working with Phonebloks creator Dave Hakkens on an "endoskeleton (endo) and modules." Announced this evening on the company blog by Paul Eremenko, the company says it's already "done deep technical work" and is opening the process up to the community and volunteers (aka Ara Scouts, sign up here) to begin designing hardware modules. Its stated goal is to do for hardware what it says Android has done for software: create a vibrant third-party developer ecosystem, lower the barriers to entry, increase the pace of innovation, and substantially compress development timelines."

Suggestions for modules include the phone's CPU, display, extra battery, external sensors or anything else one can think of. The timeline currently points to a Module Developer's Kit (MDK) release this winter, while those volunteers can expect an exclusive discount when the product launches and the 100 most active are getting free phones. Hakkens has described his design as a "phone worth keeping" -- with the ability to upgrade piece by piece and (hopefully) never experience obsolescence again we'd call this idea a phone definitely worth building.

Phonebloks: a utopian world where smartphones are a bit more like Legos

    We hate to open too negatively here, but let's just say that this seems like one of those ideas that's just too good to be true. But heck, much stranger things have happened in the world of consumer electronics, and certainly the maker and crowdfunding communities have gone a ways toward helping us rethink our devices.

    What about a smartphone that could score a 10 every time iFixit teared it down? A simple, modular handset that you could configure and reconfigure it to your heart's content and upgrade simply instead of throwing it all away? Phoneblok is still firmly in the chipper YouTube video concept phase, but its creators are hoping that, with enough social push at the same time, the company will be able to attract some big names to its big idea. Crazy? Sure. But crazier things have happened.



分析

  • 台 PC 廠商須相當注意 Google Android 戰略,只要 Google + Moto 這一戰略成功,智能手機產業將只變成模組、元件產業;
  • Google 加上摩托羅拉 = 開源碼, DIY, 開放硬體智能手機平台,致少 Google Android 發展、創新速度將更快,Microsoft Win8 及 Apple inc., iOS 都將難以對抗;
  • 以目前技術,開放硬體智能手機平台,成本不見得是最低的,但使用者可隨時升級;
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2013年10月5日 星期六

平板電腦、智能手機衝擊 TV、NB、DSC、DVD 甚劇 - 更延伸蠶食 Microsoft 市場 ( Tablet computers, smart phones impact to TV, NB, DSC, DVD shipment dramatically - and more extended market erode Microsoft market )

研調:台廠TV/NB/DSC明年代工量恐同步衰退

拓墣產業研究所於10/2舉行2014年 ICT 產業大預測研討會。針對台灣 ICT 產業發展,拓墣指出,儘管明年台灣包含電視、筆記型電腦、數位相機等主要電子產品代工出貨量均可能較2013年衰退,但平板電腦、手機代工仍將成長。其中,2013年台廠液晶電視出貨量估達4100萬台,明年出貨量估3100萬台、年減估達23%。主要係因為台廠電視代工過去多依賴日本品牌,但SONY決定回收委外代工訂單、9成以上電視改為自製,並且Panasonic、Sharp委外代工訂單也都縮減。

其它產品方面,台廠2013年筆記型電腦代工出貨量估達1.42億台,明年可能降到1.33億台、年減估7%,這是因為聯想、三星均提高自製比率、降低台廠代工訂單。台廠數位相機DSC代工今年出貨量估4100萬台,明年可能僅剩3100萬台、年減估23%,原因在於整體消費型數位相機DSC市場規模持續萎縮。

至於手機與平板電腦,台廠平板電腦2013年代工出貨量估達1.27億台,明年出貨量估達1.45億台、年增14%,主要動能在於亞馬遜、華碩(2357)、宏碁(2353)平板電腦出貨成長,進而帶動台廠平板電腦代工規模擴大。台廠手機代工2013年出貨量估6.65億台,明年上看7.5億台、年增12.8%,主因是SONY、NOKIA出貨成長,帶動台廠手機代工訂單增加。

以全球來看,拓墣預期,2013年全球液晶電視出貨量估達2.03億台,2014年可能增至2.12億台、年增4%。筆記型電腦今年出貨量估1.72億台,明年達1.62億台、年減6%。平板電腦今年出貨量估1.72億台,明年挑戰2.06億台、年增20%。手機今年出貨量估18.6億台,明年上看19.7億台、年增近6%。數位相機今年出貨量降到7800萬台後,2014年可能續減至6600萬台、年減估達16%。

若就台灣與中國大陸個別品牌與代工廠市佔率變化加以比較,根據拓墣觀察,台灣主要手機品牌廠如宏達電(2498),今年市佔率估約2.5%,明年可能降到2%,中國手機品牌廠如中興、華為、聯想、酷派今年市佔率合計約20%,明年可能挑戰25%。不過,在手機OEM/ODM代工部分,台廠華冠(8101)、華寶(8078)今年市佔率估7%,明年將可望提升到8%-10%,中國卓翼、比亞迪、聞泰、龍旗等手機代工廠今年市佔率估5%、明年可能降到4%。

筆記型電腦產業鏈方面,台灣宏碁、華碩兩大品牌廠今年市佔率合計估達21%,明年可能降到20%,中國聯想今年市佔率估16%,明年挑戰17%。而台灣NB代工廠包含廣達(2382)、仁寶(2324)、緯創(3231)、和碩(4938)、英業達(2356)合計今年市佔率估83%,明年料降至82%,中國NB代工廠包含聯寶、寶龍達等今年市佔率估4%,明年預計倍增至8%。

電視產業鏈來看,中國實力亦持續上升。台廠電視品牌包括大同、奇美、聲寶,2013年、2014年市佔率合計可能都僅0.1%,中國電視品牌廠包含海爾、海信、創維、TCL、康佳合計市佔率2013年將達26%,2014年上看28%。台廠TV代工競爭力則呈現倒退之勢,包含仁寶、冠捷、緯創、和碩、景智、瑞軒(2489),2013年電視代工市佔率估達20%,但2014年可能縮水到15%。相較之下,中國同方、兆馳電視代工市佔率今年估近4%,明年則達6%。
電視關鍵零組件方面,據調查,電視面板供應商今年仍以友達(2409)、群創(3481)合計市佔率達32%、明年估30%最大(但市佔率亦下滑),而中國電視面板供應商包括京東方、華星光電2013年市佔率估近16%,2014年挑戰20%。電視控制IC目前則仍以台廠領先,聯發科(2454)、F-晨星(3697)今年電視IC合計市佔率估達64%,明年仍有60%。

另外,拓墣認為,Tesla崛起也引領資訊化進入汽車產品。汽車電子等各項車用產品,可能會從早期GPS導航、升級到各式各樣應用。對台灣零組件供應商來說,目前Tesla Model S大約12%零組件係來自於台廠包含F-TPK宸鴻(3673)17吋觸控面板、F-貿聯(3665)電池動力線束、高力(8996)馬達硬銲加工、致茂(2360)機電控制模組與測試裝備、和大(1536)變速箱齒輪、六方精機零件機械加工都是受惠廠商。

不僅如此,汽車與智慧型手機結合亦將提供整合式服務新商機。雖然目前手機與汽車連動功能還局限於語音聲控等一些簡單車內功能,例如溫度調控、電話撥打等。但未來若手機能與汽車數據連結並直接讀取車輛參數,將可直接依據路況與車況作出適度調整,或藉由網路連結以APP軟體連動,形成所謂 knowledge Based。

對於近期熱門的穿戴式裝置,拓墣強調,網路化穿戴式裝置將衍生更多新機會,例如智慧眼鏡、智慧手錶等等,透過眼球追蹤、手勢操控、腦波偵測、智慧體感、觸控螢幕等各種方式輸入參數後,藉由某些顯示技術輸出資訊,這其中就可能帶動相機模組、特種感應器、觸控面板、觸控IC、透明顯示器、可撓式顯示器、虛擬立體投影技術等等的新需求。

Microsoft threatened as smartphones and tablets rise, Gartner warns

Microsoft faces a slide into irrelevance in the next four years unless it can make progress in the smartphone and tablet markets, because the PC market will continue shrinking, warns the research group Gartner.

It says a huge and disruptive shift is underway, in which more and more people will use a tablet as their main computing device, researchers say.

That will also see shipments of Android devices dwarf those of Windows PCs and phones by 2017. Microsoft-powered device shipments will almost be at parity with those of Apple iPhones and iPads - the latter a situation not seen since the 1980s.

In a new forecast published on Thursday morning, Gartner says that by 2015 shipments of tablets will outstrip those of conventional PCs such as desktops and notebooks, as Android and Apple's iOS become increasingly dominant in the overall operating system picture. Android in particular will be installed on more than a billion devices shipped in 2014, says Carolina Milanesi, the analyst who led the research.

Meanwhile a new category of "ultramobile" devices - such as the Surface Pro and the lighter ultrabook laptops - will become increasingly important as people shift towards more mobile forms of computing.

For Microsoft, this poses an important inflexion point in its history, warns Milanesi. "Winning in the tablet and phone space is critical for them to remain relevant in this shift," she told the Guardian. "We're talking about hardware displacement here - but this shift also has wider implications for operating systems and apps. What happens, for instance, when [Microsoft] Office isn't the best way to be productive in your work?"

For Microsoft, income from Windows and Office licences are key to its revenues: per-PC Windows licences generate about 50% of its profits, and Office licences almost all the rest.

But while it dominates the PC market, it is a distant third in the smartphone and tablet markets. Latest figures suggest that Windows Phone, its smartphone OS, shipped on about 3% of devices in fourth quarter of 2012, compared to 20% for Apple's iPhone and over 70% for Android - of which 50% connected to Google's servers and 20% were "white box" Android phones in China which do not use Google services.

"Android is going to get to volumes that are three times those of Windows," says Milanesi. "From a consumer perspective, the question becomes: what software do you want to have to get the widest reach on your devices? BlackBerry may say that its QNX software [used as the basis of BB10 on its new phones] can go into cars and phones, but Android is already in fridges. That's the challenge."

BlackBerry, which has just released the first of its BB10 devices, is forecast to see a slow decline in shipments through to 2017, shipping 24.1m devices then compared to 34.7m in 2012. That will leave it well behind Windows Phone in the forecast.

Milanesi added: "the interesting thing is that this shift in device preference is coming from a shift in user behaviour. Some people think that it's just like the shift when people moved from desktops to laptops [a process that began in the early 2000s]. But that's wrong. The laptop was more mobile than the desktop, but with the tablet and smartphone, there's a bigger embrace of the cloud for sharing and for access to content. It's also more biased towards consumption of content rather than production.

"All these things will get consumers to look for the OS and apps that can give them all that," Milanesi says.

A key problem for Microsoft is that it is the people who don't yet own PCs - in emerging markets such as Africa and China - who are most likely to have a smartphone and tablet as their first "computer". Milanesi says: "They're starting with a smartphone, not a PC, so when they're looking for something larger, they look at something that's a replacement smartphone experience - which is a tablet or ultramobile device. And Android or [Apple's] iOS are the two that they're looking at."

Microsoft could then face the vicious circle where developers considering which platform to develop apps for look at those with the largest user base - and that that will not be Windows. By 2017, she says, the number of devices being shipped with iOS, both iPhones and iPads, will be close to that with Windows and Windows Phone combined.

"And that's not assuming that Apple launches a low-end iPhone," Milanesi says. "Our numbers for Apple are conservative, because for a low-end phone it would be a guess about what price point it would use, and what the timing would be." A number of observers have suggested that Apple will launch a lower-cost iPhone in the next year to capture a larger market share, especially in the pre-pay (pay-as-you-go) market. But Apple has given no indication of whether it will do that.

2013 全球智慧型手機出貨超越8億支 30% 成長率

根據 TrendForce 旗下研究部門 DRAMeXchange 調查,由於各零組件成本下滑,手機製造商紛紛推出中低價位智慧型機種搶攻市場大餅,功能型手機將逐漸退出市場。2012年智慧型手機出貨量預估將達6.50億支以上,相較2011年的4.60億支,整體出貨成長已超過40%。

展望 2013年,在3G基礎硬體建設逐漸完備,以及手機價格迅速貼近市場消費水平兩大條件下,智慧型手機出貨量可望持續攀升,TrendForce預估 2013年智慧型手機出貨量將可達到8.30億支以上,年成長率接近30%。值得注意的是中國品牌手機出貨成長幅度亮眼,預估明年中國品牌出貨量年成長將達50%,超越全球平均成長幅度。

TrendForce指出,目前市面上高價智慧型手機品牌眾多,最受矚目的仍屬蘋果(Apple)與三星(Samsung)。兩大品牌2012年出貨量合計約佔總體智慧型手機的50%,達3.30億支。2012年第三季推出的新產品 iPhone 5 更是創下最高預購量,第四季預估出貨可望來到4,500萬支,今年 iPhone 系列產品總銷量將超過1.20億支。 ..... 持續閱讀

分析
  • 2013 全球智慧型手機出貨超仍以 30% 成長率,建議台廠做 Microsoft Win 8 RT、Android 等tablet 及 smart phone 混合型產品,走 Operator 通路,較易台廠轉型;
  • 智慧型手機與平板電腦改變了人們之使用習慣趨勢與進而影響 Microsoft 產品市占率,Microsoft 目前還未有利器贏回市場。
  • 智慧型手機與平板電腦內含 DSC 攻能,數位相機今年出貨量降到7800萬台後,2014年可能續減至6600萬台、年減估達16%。
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