2009年1月24日 星期六

2009 2月份 ETF 投資 ( ETF Investment on Feb. 2009 )

   2009 2月份 ETF 投資是自己分析研究之項目,希望能運用定指標、多類型ETF、多元化資金比率來達到穩定安全投資績效. 2009 第一季之情況是:
  1. 美國與歐洲仍然有突發金融業之利空;(US, Europe finance will continue to have the crisis )
  2. 美國持續舉債來解決銀行、保險公司及公司資金之問題,引發美元價值疑慮;( US Gov. raise too much debt induce the value of US dollar degradation )
  3. OPEC及蘇俄等產油國將再度減產以維繫油價防止虧損;( Opec and Russia will continue to reduce the volume of production for keeping the price of crude oil in response to US dollar degradation )
  4. OBAMA替代能源將帶動農產品價格;
  5. 各產品都持續消化庫存;
  6. 各國需要舉債來促進內需經濟;
  7. 失業人數持續增加;
  8. 全世界人口持續增加;( World Wide population will continue to increase )
  9. 電子產品與汽車需求仍然疲軟;
  10. 中國、日本持續增加美債,黃金避險需求增加快速;(China, Japen continue to buy US Gov. Bond)

基本上,我選擇 GLD、DGP、SKF、DBA、DBC、USO, DIG 多元化資金比率運用定指標來制定投資,讓投資多元化資金比率定指標運用像一支基金一樣在經營;由於還有許多美國與歐洲金融業之大型利空,SKF ETF UltraShort Financials ProShares 是來對抗美國與歐洲銀行、保險公司持續之倒閉利空;GLD 與 DGP是對等於買黃金對抗美債增長太多所引起之『避險』,而DBA、DBC 是呼應全世界人口持續增加,DIG 是呼應 OPEC及蘇俄等產油國將再度減產以維繫油價防止虧損, DIG 內含 Gas 部份蘇俄已經漲價所以 DIG 比 USO 強勢;


<< English Translation >>

2009 Feb ETF investment is their analysis of the project, hoping to use to set targets and a wide range of ETF, the rate of diversification of funding to achieve a stable and secure investment performance. The situation in the first quarter of 2009 is:
  1. The United States and Europe there are still unexpected bad financial industry; (US, Europe finance will continue to have the crisis) 
  2. The United States continued to address the debt of banks, insurance companies and corporate funding problems, the value of the dollar sparked concerns; (US Gov. Raise too much debt induce the value of US dollar degradation) 
  3. OPEC and other oil-producing countries and the Soviet Union will once again in order to sustain oil production tprevent a loss; (Opec and Russia will continue to reduce the volume of production for keeping the price of crude oil in response to US dollar degradation) 
  4. OBAMA alternative energy sources will drive the prices of agricultural products; 
  5. Continued to digest the product inventory; 
  6. Borrowing countries need to promote domestic economy; 
  7. Continued increase in the number of unemployed people; 
  8. The world's population continued to increase; (World Wide population will continue to increase) 
  9. Demand for electronic products and motor vehicles are still weak; 
  10. China, Japan, the United States continued to increase debt, gold hedge rapid increase in demand; (China, Japen continue to buy US Gov. Bond) 
Basically, I chose to GLD, DGP, SKF, DBA, DBC, DIG diversified funds rate to use to set targets to develop investment, so that investors can diversify the use of the funds rate as an indicator of operating funds; as a result of the United States and there are many large European financial industry bad, SKF ETF UltraShort Financials ProShares is against the United States and European banks, insurance companies continue to close down the bad; GLD and DGP is equivalent to gold against the United States to buy too much debt caused by the growth of hedge 『』, and DBA, DBC is the world's population continued to increase response, DIG is echoed and the Soviet Union and other OPEC oil producers will cut production to maintain oil prices once again to prevent the loss, DIG containing Gas prices part of the Soviet Union has been so strong DIG than the USO;;























上面表格集合這部拉格之美國 ETF(ETF for US)、亞洲 ETF(Asia ETF)、歐洲拉美其他區域(Europe, Latin, Other ETF)、債券 ETF(Bond ETF)、能源物資 ETF(Energy, Goods ETF)、 做空避險 ETF(Shrot ETF)、 貨幣 ETF(Currency ETF),再對照 Yahoo Finance,Google Finance, holding(持股)及自動建議表,就可以加速選擇到自己要投資之標的。

貨幣 ETF 分析 (Currency, Gold ETF Relation Analysis)






最近一個月研究國際貨幣ETF, 黃金ETF, 貨幣ETF有配息手續費低之優點讓, 我喜歡它能用較低成本做外匯避險。

所有測試 Google Spreadsheet, Google Finance API 與 Google Web computing server 之表格, 屬於 自己投資與Web computing 計劃之參考, 請勿當成投資之參考, 更勿複製也不可用於交易目的或諮詢!

































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2009年1月19日 星期一

Crude Oil ETF ( 原油 ETF )



    當次貸事件議題到雷曼申請倒閉保護,引發美國金融海嘯衝擊全世界經濟與金融系統,造成美國發行債券達到歷史新高,美元像崩裂水庫的水大量被印發,美元價值也一再被稀釋,導致美債投資必須增加許多避險,黃金就是明顯例子。
    油價平均世界歷史價格是 27$ USD/Barrel,被稀釋美元之油價有可能低於 30$ USD/Barrel 嗎?OPEC、俄羅斯與南美有可能賠錢賣油嗎? 我實在很懷疑,以美國、中國、德國、日本、法國GDP 既使衰退, 全世界石油需求回到十年前需要嗎? 
    這隨便想也知道這是有問題,油國不可能賠錢賣油,低油價不利 OBAMA 替代能源建設,低油價也不利全世界經濟成長,如果再參考世界原油需求,這次原油需求下降頂多3%,又一過量生產而超跌?所以,油國成本是關鍵,而全世界經濟成長之關鍵也不是超低油價,更何況,全世界已經沒有新的大原油井,意味新油田開發成本高於舊油田許多,油價不可能再那麼低。
    如果你有興趣分析原油成本,2009 將有低檔因為OPEC、俄羅斯不可能賠錢賣油,所以相關 ETF 值得我們注意, 當然它適合投資方式也不一樣。
    If You are interesting with analysis of crude oil cost, you will find that it will close to lower point in 2009 due to OPEC and Russia will not produce the crude oil less than their cost; we can check it from relative ETF like USO, DIG and DBC chart carefully;(It will automatically update each day).