全球市場研究機構TrendForce最新研究報告指出，2014年第一季全球智慧型手機出貨量達2.669億支，季成長微幅上揚1.13%，優於原先預估。研究協理吳雅婷表示，第一季全球智慧型手機出貨動能主要來自於新興市場與中國地區，中國手機品牌廠全力提升4G智慧型手機產能為本季出貨量優過預期的關鍵。展望第二季，在持續增溫的需求帶動下，全球智慧型手機的季成長將更為明顯，出貨量上看2.848億支，季成長6.7%；其中主要品牌都會搶在蘋果下一代機種上市前陸續推出旗艦產品，因此高階的出貨量以及平均銷售單價可望持盈保泰，帶動智慧型手機品牌廠的獲利。至於中國地區的出貨季成長幅度達到13.76%，超過產業平均，但比起首季表現已經有趨緩的態勢。
從供應鏈的角度來看，研究協理劉陳宏表示，目前小尺寸面板廠五代線稼動率雖偏高，短期內面板關鍵零組件仍不會是供貨的瓶頸，但下一代的iPhone將在第二季展開出貨準備，配合上其他大廠旗艦機種的推出，高階相機鏡頭模組產能已有吃緊的狀態。在行動式記憶體方面，由於需求端在今年度將完成LPDDR2轉進LPDDR3的世代交替，需求高度成長下已造成供給紊亂，LPDDR2目前呈現缺貨狀況，預計新款智慧型手機陸續導入LPDDR3設計後，第三季後這種缺貨狀態才會獲得舒緩
ABI Research: First quarter Android sales dominate, Windows Phone growth continues, BlackBerry fades
ABI Research reports that Android once again dominated the Q1 2014 shipment numbers for smartphone advanced operating systems with 80% market share (including AOSP) of just under 300 million smartphones shipped in Q1 2014.
“Interestingly, basic mobile phones lost 5% market share and Android picked up almost all of these users, suggesting Android is set to gain almost all of the billions of mobile subscribers still upgrading to smartphones. Certainly, Android looks set to completely dominate the high growth developing markets and increase its market share still further,” said Nick Spencer, senior practice director, mobile devices.
Microsoft’s Windows Phone (essentially Nokia/Microsoft) continued its steady progress with 16% sequential growth and an increase of 1% in market share.
“Microsoft Windows Phone is currently the only viable third ecosystem. BlackBerry has faded on all fronts (BlackBerry 10 and OS) and while Firefox remains a potential low-cost challenger, it has yet to make any significant impact,” added Spencer.
N.B. The attached chart includes Basic Mobile Phones not just Advanced Operating Systems.
Apple’s iOS also achieved steady progress with 17% year-on-year growth, but growth is undoubtedly flattening and the iPhone 5c has done little to boost sales volumes.
DC降平板出貨預估：高階換機需求弱、Phablet崛起
研調機構IDC 29日以需求不如預期為由、將2014年全球平板(含二合一)出貨量預估值自2.609億台下修5.9%至2.454億台。換言之，IDC目前預估全球平板出貨量成長率將從2013年的51.8%大降至今年的12.1%。
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| 2013-2018年全球平板市場(資料來源：IDC) |
IDC裝置暨顯示部研究副總Tom Mainelli指出，高階平板換機需求不如預期加上Phablet(平板手機：Phone+Tablet；螢幕尺寸介於5.5-7.0吋)」崛起侵蝕部分平板需求導致產業成長速度不如預期。IDC統計顯示，Phablet佔智慧型手機比重自2013年第1季的4.3%跳增至今年第1季的10.5%(出貨量達3,010萬支)。
IDC預期較大尺寸機種(例如：微軟新款二合一12吋Surface Pro 3)將成為平板未來的成長動能來源。IDC研究分析師Jitesh Ubrani指出，微軟預期將受惠於平板大尺寸化風潮，預估從現在到2018年這段期間Windows裝置市佔率將呈現倍增。
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| From IHS Research By http://techcrunch.com/ |
IDC 5月1日公布，2014年第1季全球平板(含二合一)出貨量初估年增3.9%(季減35.7%)至5,040萬台。
根據Opera Mediaworks發布的報告，Phablet絕非一時流行：Juniper Research預估2018年全球平板手機出貨量將自2013年的2千萬支(註：當年智慧型手機出貨量達9.8億支)跳增至1.2億支。根據Opera的定義，平板手機的螢幕尺寸介於5-7吋之間，包括三星Galaxy Note、Sony Xperia Z、宏達電(2498)HTC One Max、Nokia Lumia以及LG Optimus G Pro等13款行動裝置皆符合此一定義。Opera發現，今年3-4月全球平板手機網路流量主要是來自三星機種，其用戶主要集中在亞洲、紐澳地區。
平板手機的主要用途？Opera發現Phablet主要是拿來使用社群網站服務。如果是要拿來玩遊戲、聽音樂、看影片，平板的使用機率高於Phablet。看新聞？使用螢幕較小的智慧型手機會比用Phablet還要來得頻繁。
研調機構Canalys 12日公佈，2014年第1季全球智慧型手機出貨量年增29%(季減5%)至2.794億支。Canalys統計顯示，全球5吋以上智慧機出貨量年增369%。Canalys分析師Jessica Kwee指出，三星在5吋以上螢幕機種市場佔有率達44%、若就5.5吋以上螢幕來看市佔率更高達53%。
就在Phablet大賣的同時，平板第一品牌蘋果卻是不進反退。2014年1-3月iPad銷售量年減16%(季減37%)至1,635萬台；銷售額年減13%(季減34%)至76.1億美元。
2013-2018年全球平板市場(資料來源：IDC)
Apple Again Trails Market in Smartphone Growth, but Closes on Nokia in Overall Mobile Phones
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| Worldwide smartphone shipments in 1Q14 in millions of units (Source: IDC) |
As it has for several quarters now, Apple continues to trail the overall smartphone market's booming growth, with the company's 16.8 percent year-over-year growth in the first quarter registering as the lowest among top five vendors in a market that grew by 28.6 percent as a whole, according to a new report from research firm IDC. Market leader Samsung also trailed the broader market's growth as Huawei, Lenovo, and LG all jockeyed for position in the closely contested third through fifth spots in the rankings.
Apple reached a new first quarter record, breaching the 40 million unit mark. The company saw double-digit growth in Japan as well as across multiple developing markets, including Brazil, China, India, and Indonesia. Still, this made for the lowest year-over-year improvement among the leading vendors. What remains to be seen is when – not if – Apple's rumored large-screen models will arrive on the market, filling a gap in the company's portfolio that has been exploited by the competition.
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| Worldwide mobile phone shipments in 1Q14 in millions of units (Source: IDC) |
In the overall mobile phone market, Apple again outperformed most of the competition as feature phone sales continue to dwindle. With Apple's all-smartphone lineup taking nearly 10 percent of the overall market in the quarter, the company is within striking distance of Nokia, which garnered 11.3 percent of the market as it continues to be hit hard by the decline in feature phone sales and instability as it has shifted from Symbian to Windows Phone. Just days ago, Microsoft completed its acquisition of Nokia's phone unit, officially uniting software and hardware in what has been a close partnership over the last several years.
Apple last week announced record March quarter earnings on the strength of its 43.7 million iPhones shipped. The iPhone continues to drive Apple's overall financial performance, representing 57 percent of the company's revenue for the quarter.
分析
- 2014 全球智慧型手機出貨成長，建議台廠做 Microsoft Win 8、Android 等 Phablet 、Tablet 及 smart phone 混合型有差異化產品，走 Operator 通路，加速台廠轉型跟上 Phablet 取代 Tablet 的趨勢中；
- 發展台灣智慧型手機關鍵零組件，讓台灣產業升級加速。
- 加強加速 TSMC 、聯發科、大立光等相關零組件公司技術升級，讓台灣產業能更上一層之競爭力。
- 政府應立法讓台灣產業早期的靠分紅配股保留2% ~ 10%，讓許多投入產業年輕人成為科技新貴並留住人才。能吸引人才到台灣，經濟才能振興。
- 台灣現行的創櫃、興櫃市場還很難吸引許多投資人，稅制限制了創櫃、興櫃市場發展，政府應該修正錯誤之創櫃、興櫃稅率，讓台灣民間投資率大幅上升，這才能真正增加台灣競爭力及未來政府稅收之不二法門。
- 台灣應該要對雲端、大數據、物聯網提出好的研發獎勵補助，企業應該要運用 TSMC 半導體技術領先之機運，加速產業升級，才會振興台灣得到全民支持。
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