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| BDI index jump higher |
在波羅的海乾散貨運價指數(BDI)大漲創21個月新高的帶動下，散裝航運業者今(18)日盤中在大盤盤整之際，逆勢飆漲，台航(2617-TW)、中航(2612-TW)攻上漲停，益航(2601-TW)大漲逾半根停板，新興(2605-TW)、裕民(2606-TW)和四維航(5608-TW)漲幅也超過2%，整個族群股價動起來喜迎運價指數反彈，法人看好其下半年獲利可望大幅回升。
台航和中航盤中股價分別來到29.65元、42.45元，股價分別創逾1年和近1年半新高。
散裝航運低迷了近2年，但受惠近期中國鐵礦石需求暢旺，又時序進入北美穀物回補庫存旺季，業者多半預期，BDI指數至第4季底皆有望維持在目前水準以上。
在需求回溫下，BDI指數逾一個半月來漲幅高達70%來到1740點，創21個月來新高，也可望大幅挹注業者旗下以現貨計價的散裝船舶獲利水準。
不過法人也指出，今(2013)年散裝市場運力供給年增率雖由去(2012)年的12%大幅下滑至6%，但需求成長率並回轉增， 顯示今年散裝業仍難擺脫供給過剩的結構，儘管部分航商船舶仍有過去簽訂的高價合約保護，鎖定獲利，但航商在面臨換約船舶下，仍否以近期的高BDI水準增加議價空間還有待觀察。
經濟學家點評中國8月份制造業PMI
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| China ETF FXI surge higher |
中國經濟顯露向好跡象
此前中國公布了好於預期的7月出口、工業增加值和固定資產投資數據後，利好的8月PMI增加了中國第三季度經濟將強勁增長的可能性。中國政府加大對基建的投資力度同時放鬆對房地產的調控，加上發達國家經濟逐步復蘇提振對中國出口的需求，這是促使中國經濟出現好轉的原因。
以下是一些經濟學家的觀點：
雖然7月份的數據略微喜憂參半，但是8月份兩個制造業PMI均上漲，令外界不再質疑中國制造業已經出現反彈。但是經濟復蘇看似仍得益於信貸增長和投資拉動，這令外界質疑這種復蘇能持續多久。上個月官方PMI的改善僅限於大型企業。中型企業分類指數依然持平，而小企業分類指數事實上出現了下滑。反過來說，這與如下看法一致：最近經濟增長加速是因為建築和投資出現好轉，這通常對大型企業有利。隨著經濟形勢好轉，對於勞動力市場的擔心將減弱。雖然8月份的兩個PMI中的就業指數仍在50下方，但是均出現上漲。最後需要說明的是，物價指數的漲幅相對較大，這將打消外界對於通貨緊縮的擔心。據Markit，無論是生產投入價格還是產出價格均出現2月份以來的首次上漲。──凱投宏觀(Capital Economics)的Mark Williams
8月制造業PMI令人鼓舞，這可能反映出出口好轉和一些刺激經濟增長的措施（尤其是鐵路建設等基建項目）開始奏效。中國制造業出現擴張跡象，這表明到目前為止旨在降低信貸增長和控制非銀行融資行為的緊縮貨幣政策立場對經濟增長的影響溫和。我們預計只要核心銀行信貸繼續強勁增長，這種現狀就將保持。中國官方PMI暗示經濟增長在加速，如果下周將公布的8月份經濟數據証實這一點，中國政府在推出更多刺激措施方面面臨的壓力將會減弱。──蘇格蘭皇家銀行(RBS)的Louis Kuijs
制造業PMI高於預期反映出中國政府的經濟支持政策已經奏效。大型企業在接獲政府訂單和資金支持方面具有優勢，因此這類企業通常首先會出現改觀。目前中小型企業的經濟活動仍比大型企業疲軟，這表明小型企業的發展仍面臨沖擊。鑒於訂單將從大型企業流向小型企業這一事實，我們預計未來幾個月中小型企業的情況將出現好轉。考慮到就業市場的情況有所改善，政府不大可能推出任何大規模的刺激方案來幫助經濟擺脫滑坡勢頭。中國高層領導人承諾將穩定經濟增長，但是他們也提到調整經濟結構和進行改革的重要性。──大華繼顯(UOB KayHian)的Fan Zhang
我們預計即將出爐的8月經濟數據將証實經濟增長持續回升。我們預計出口和國內需求將擴大，房地產建設仍將保持穩健增長步伐，此外工業增加值增幅將達到近10%。官方PMI中的出口訂單分類指數出現反彈，但是匯豐PMI預覽指數中的出口訂單分類指數則進一步下滑。但是匯豐PMI傾向於調查的是小企業的情況，而官方PMI也顯示中小企業的出口訂單指數繼續疲軟。8月PMI也進一步表明庫存周期有所改善。原材料庫存略微增加，但是制成品庫存出現下滑。──瑞士銀行(UBS)汪濤
我們仍預計中國經濟復蘇勢頭將難以為繼。我們主要擔心的是貨幣市場利率和債券收益率處於上漲趨勢，這將給投資造成負面影響。目前無論是政府債券收益率還是公司債收益率均高於7月份流動性吃緊時的水平。例如，10年期政府債券收益率目前為4.06%，為2011年9月以來最高，並且較6月初上漲了60個基點。此外隨著經濟復蘇，政府有望實現7.5%的今年經濟增長率目標，因此推出新的寬鬆措施的可能性降低。所以我們仍預計2014年中國國內生產總值(GDP)將增長6.9%。──野村(Nomura)經濟學家張智威
Europe PMI boost, Asia trade gloom [ 歐、亞洲製造業採購經理人指數(PMI)轉佳，印度、印尼、法 PMI 指數仍差 ]
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| BDI index is a signal to make sure the recovery of economic |
Indicators were dominated by manufacturing, with PMI readings from Europe, Asia, Africa and South America. Overall, PMI showed gains across Europe except for France, although that did not necessarily translate into job creation in the periphery. In Asia, falling currencies didn’t boost exports enough to push PMI readings up or trade deficits down, with India seeing the first deterioration in manufacturing conditions in four years, while Indonesia’s trade deficit hit record highs.
Africa
South Africa: Manufacturing hit its strongest level in six years with a Kagiso PMI index reading of 56.6, or 4.3 points over July. New sales orders increased by 2.5 points to 57.5 in August due to thawing demand, while the employment index increased to 51.2 from 47.5 in July. The price index remained stable.
South Americas
Brazil: Conditions continued to deteriorate as new orders and output fell, but the rates of contraction softened, which allowed the HSBC PMI reading to increase to 49.4 in August from 48.5 in July. Output fell for the second successive month. Consumer goods saw growth, albeit cancelled out by decreases in investment and intermediate goods sectors. New order levels continued to fall in those sectors but saw growth in consumer goods. Manufacturers cut workforces, with capital goods producers curbing employment at the fastest rate. Input cost burdens rose, pushing up selling prices.
“Firms reported that input prices rose at the fastest pace since October 2008, reflecting the impact of the BRL depreciation, and although output prices rose at a slightly slower pace than in July, it was still the second highest monthly rate since October 2008 – highlighting upside risks to inflation,” said Andre Loes, HSBC Brazil chief economist.
Mexico: Manufacturing business conditions improved marginally, though rates of growth were weak, pushing the HSBC PMI reading above the 50.0 neutral mark to 50.8, compared with 49.7 in July. Total order levels expanded, driven by domestic demand, but new export work fell for the fourth consecutive month. Manufacturing employment increased, with 8 per cent of surveyed companies reporting new hires. Input prices rose due to higher raw material costs, but inflation eased, with sales prices falling for the fifth successive month as companies tried to win new business.
Asia-Pacific
India: For the first time in more than four years, business conditions in manufacturing deteriorated as output and new orders fell at faster rates and export orders declined after 11 months of growth, pushing down the HSBC PMI indicator to 48.5 in August from 50.1 in July. Competitive pressure increased while demand from key export clients decreased, pushing down order book volumes and thus a reduction in production volumes for the fourth consecutive month. Indian manufacturers did continue to add to their workforce, though job creation rates were weak. The weak rupee pushed up input prices, leading to reluctance to import raw materials.
Indonesia: Imports soared by 11.4 per cent in July, trailed by a 2.37 per cent increase in exports, widening the trade deficit to a record $2.31bn from $850m in June. Total exports rose to $15.1bn from $14.8bn in June, falling by more than 6 per cent on the year. Although non oil exports increased by more than 7 per cent on the month, that wasn’t enough to make up for the 18.5 per cent fall in oil and gas exports. Imports hit $17.4bn in July, a 6.5 per cent rise on the year, led by monthly increases in organic chemicals and plastic articles.
The headline HSBC PMI index fell to 48.5 from 50.7 in August, hitting a 15-month low due to an overall deterioration in the manufacturing sector as output, new orders and export business contracted, while payroll numbers fell at the fastest rate in the history of the survey. Order book volumes fell at the strongest rate since April 2011 due to lower foreign and domestic demand.
China: Operating conditions in China were more positive in August, hitting 50.1 on the HSBC Purchasing Managers’ Index compared with 47.7 in July, ending a three-month deterioration. Manufacturers saw the first expansion in output in three months due to higher levels of total new orders, though growth remained subdued. New export orders, however, continued to decline due to weak demand from Europe and the US. Employment levels decreased, though the rate of job shedding slowed.
Australia: Building approvals jumped by 10.8 per cent in July, far outpacing market expectations of a 4.0 increase, putting year on year growth at 28.3 per cent. The increase was driven by private sector building, up by 11.3 per cent, while public sector building contracted by 5.3 per cent compared with June.Seasonally adjusted sales of goods and services rose by 0.1 per cent for manufacturing, but declined by 1 per cent compared with last year, while wholesale seasonally adjusted sales rose by 0.6 per cent on the quarter, and by 1.7 per cent compared with last year.
South Korea: A slight gain in orders and new output were the only good news reported by the HSBC Purchasing Manager’ Index, which rose modestly to 47.5 from 47.2 in July. At the same time preproduction inventories shrunk at their fastest rate since September 2008 while new export orders contracted.
Outstanding business fell at the fastest pace since the survey began in 2004, with one-fifth of respondents reporting lower levels.Employment and output prices continued to fall, though both rates eased in August.
Japan: New vehicle sales dropped by 1.1 per cent in August on the year to 366,754 units. New car sales excluding minivehicles fell 6.4 per cent, while the sales of new minivehicles rose 7.9 per cent.
Thailand: Inflation increased by 1.59 per cent in August, according to the Consumer Price Index, after a 2 per cent increase in July. Excluding energy and food costs, the core CPI rose by 0.75 per cent as some fuel and meat and vegetable prices eased the inflation rate.
Hong Kong: Retail sales rose by 9.5 per cent on the year to $40bn, with volume increasing by 8.9 per cent on the year driven by sales of jewellery and valuable gifts. However, sales decreased by 2.9 per cent in the second quarter compared with the first, but overall, for the first seven months of the year, total retail sales increased by 14.2 per cent by value and 13.6 per cent by volume.
“Looking ahead, the still-favourable labour market conditions and inbound tourism should continue to underpin the retail business in the near term,” the government said. “However, we need to closely monitor the whether the unsteady external environment will affect the local economy going forward.”
Taiwan: Output declined slightly while the slowdown in total new orders and new export orders eased, leaving PMI at 50.0 in August compared with 48.6 in July. Staffing levels increased at the fastest rate this year, while deflation pushed input prices down, which enabled companies to reduce tariffs and engage in discounting.
Europe
Eurozone: France was once again the only nation in the euro area where PMI indicators did not improve, as the eurozone overall continued on a positive trend, up slightly to 51.4 in August from a flash reading of 51.3 and a reading of 50.3 in July. Production, new orders and new export business all accelerated to the fastest rates since May 2011, and the outlook for output remained positive.
“Although gains are still only modest, companies reported the strongest improvements in business conditions for just over two years,” said Markit chief economist Chris Williamson. “What’s especially encouraging is that the upturn is broad-based.”
France: Manufacturing continued to deteriorate in August, posting an unchanged Markit PMI reading of 49.7, below the 50.0 benchmark for its 18th month. Four of the five components of the headline PMI indices were positive, but the downward movement in the output index was enough to offset that. Production decreased, and the amount of new orders fell further, though the rate of decline eased. New export orders decreased slightly. Employment fell marginally, at the slowest rate in 18 months. Both input and output prices were broadly unchanged.
Germany: The manufacturing sector continued to see improvements due to stronger new order inflows and faster output growth in August, hitting a Markit/BME PMI reading of 51.8 in August compared with 50.7 in July. Consumer goods saw the greatest improvements, followed closely by investment goods. Production levels grew robustly, pushing up output for the fourth month running. However, employment levels dipped in August, the fifth month of job shedding. Total volumes of new orders increased, pushed by stronger exports, with new orders from abroad rising for the first time since February.
Italy: Manufacturing growth accelerated to its fastest rate in 28 months, putting the ADACI PMI index indicator at a 27-month high of 51.3 in August compared with 50.4 in July. Manufacturing output rose for the third month at a faster pace since April 2011. However, the rate of job shedding was slightly faster in August than July. Input and final goods prices increased.
Greece: The manufacturing sector appeared close to stabilisation, according to August Markit PMI figures, which rose to a 44-month high of 48.7 compared with 47.0 in July. Input price inflation and falling final product prices due to ongoing promotions to boost sales squeezed profit margins, but news overall was positive for the sector. New export orders increased for the first time in two years and though output levels continued to fall it was at a slower rate. Employment levels, however, continued to fall at a solid rate.
“A repeat of this scenario next month is likely to halt the downturn in goods production, which is already showing signs of abating,” said Markit Economist Phil Smith.
Spain: Output rebounded in August due to a large increase in new export orders, though the rate of job cuts quickened as businesses used existing stocks to meet demand. The Markit PMI composite indicator hit 51.1 in August from 49.8 in July. The increase in new orders was driven by demand from foreign markets.
Ireland: New orders and output expanded in August and companies took on new employees, putting the Investec PMI indicator at 52.0 compared to 51.0 in July. New orders rose for the second successive month at the strongest pace since last summer and new business from abroad continued to increase. Job creation continued into its third months at a slower pace, and input costs climbed due to higher raw materials costs.
Poland: Output, new orders and new export business and purchasing grew at faster rates and manufacturers hired more workers for the first time in a year, putting the HSBC PMI indicator at 52.6 from 51.1 in July. New orders expanded at the fastest rate since 2011 due to higher demand both at home and abroad. Employment in manufacturing increased for the first time in a year but at a weak rate, while the rate of purchasing growth was its fastest since March 2011. Output prices declined while input prices rose at their fastest rate since June last year.
UK: The manufacturing sector remained strong in August, with growth rates in output and new orders at their highest since 1994, putting the Markit/CIPS PMI rating at 57.2 compared with 54.8 in July. The performance of intermediate goods was the strongest, and the domestic market was the main source of new contracts, though overseas demand showed an increase as well. New product launches helped boost order volumes, as well as promotional activity and improved client confidence, while demand was stronger form the US, China, Europe, India, Scandinavia, Brazil and Ireland. However, inflationary pressures hit manufacturers, as average input prices rose at their fastest rate in two years, pushing up selling prices. Additional hires were stronger, particularly in production, research and management.
Russia: Output picked up but was countered by a downturn in the larger manufacturing economy, leaving the change in the HSBC PMI indicator flat at 49.4 in August compared with 49.2 in July. The volume of new orders rose slightly due to domestic demand, while output remained stagnant. Increases were driven by the consumer goods sector. Backlogs fell for the sixth month, and workers were cut for the ninth time in 10 months, with the rate of job shedding the fastest in four years. Input prices increased slightly due to imported items and energy, utility and fuel costs, but remained weak overall, while prices for final goods continued to rise at a moderate rate.
“A crawling-style shaky growth seems to be the most plausible scenario for Russian manufacturing looking forward, although there are also moderate risks of stagnation,” said HSBC Russia and CIS chief economist Alexander Morozov. The PMI result “still supports monetary policy easing, with output growth in manufacturing remaining below potential and upside risks to inflation staying muted”, he said.
Turkey: New export orders and purchasing activity were up slightly, pushing the HSBC PMI indicator to 50.9 in August compared with July’s 49.8. Output levels were up for the third month in a row and order book volumes rose as client demand from foreign markets expanded with the weakening Turkish lira. Manufacturers bought more inputs and additional workers were hired, though the overall rate of job creation slowed to the weakest in a year.
《美國經濟》芝加哥製造業PMI連揚2月
芝加哥供應管理學會(ISM)30日公佈，8月份芝加哥採購經理人指數(PMI)由前月的52.3微幅上揚0.7至53，不僅連兩個月上揚，且符合市場預期。
製造業在美國GDP所占比重為12%，PMI指數高於榮枯點50代表製造業景氣呈現擴張，反之則為衰退。連同8月在內，PMI指數已連續4個月高於榮枯分水嶺，意味著製造業下半年將持續為美國經濟復甦挹注動能。
當月分項數據表現較突出的有，新接訂單指數上揚3.3至57.2，為自5月以來新高；積壓訂單指數上升3.6至46.5；庫存指數上升7.3至45；價格支付指數(通膨動向指標)上揚1.6至65.2。
除此之外，生產指數跌0.6至53，為近12個月裡第10度走跌；就業指數下滑1.7至54.9；供應商交貨指數下滑0.2至50.8。
沒97年金融風暴嚴重！但新興亞洲問題其實更大？
大部分分析師都同意，目前亞洲新興市場國家爆發的資金大潰逃，還不至於構成 1990 年代末期亞洲金融風暴翻版；但部分分析師卻更擔心，新興亞洲恐怕已失去能力，來追趕上已開發國家的經濟成長腳步，進而提供投資人相應獲利。
《CNBC》周一 (26 日) 報導，許多分析師都排斥將目前新興亞洲國家金融市場震盪，與 1997-98 年亞洲金融危機相提並論。原因是後者由當時受難國家的外匯債務所引發，因本國幣大幅貶值，導致外幣債務金額飆升。
但市場研究公司 Capital Economics 指出，目前亞洲國家的外幣債務水準都低落。其他分析師也表示，亞洲金融業目前受規範程度比當年好，外匯存底也遠遠較多。全球最大債券基金公司 PIMCO 執行長埃利安 (Mohamed El-Erian) 上周五 (23 日) 受訪時便稱，新興亞洲國家目前擁有非常強大的外匯儲備，可以抵擋市場衝擊；且目前金融政策也較佳，貨幣匯率亦更有彈性。因此比起 90 年代，他們今日擁有明顯更多的自保能力，至少大部分國家如此。
危機雖被排除，但仍有分析師擔心，亞洲新興市場國家恐無能力「追趕上」西方國家成長。例如麥格理 (Macquarie) 便發布報告指出，如今情況雖然不是 1997 年，但從許多方面來看，卻更狡詐、更危險。
麥格理認為，亞洲新興市場國家過去 30 年經濟成長的關鍵動力，例如有關製造、金融及勞動市場的規定放寬，大部分正慢慢失去推動能力。他們預測，多數新興亞洲國家接下來經濟成長將低於平均趨勢。
麥格理進一步分析，若一新興市場國家只有西方國家消費或人均道路的 10%，而要證明在當地投資具吸引力，未來不太可能有太大說服力。因為在新的時代，新興國家若人均道路只有西方的 10%，很可能符合其真正價值。而這些國家如果想要吸引更多資金，便得證明自己為何需要更多道路或有更多消費，且必須廝殺爭奪稀少資本。
顧問公司 Vansight 執行長 Anantha Nageswaran 也同感憂慮。他認為東南亞國協國家樂觀的經濟預期發展無疑被高估了，且市場價格已完全反映過這片樂觀，「現在應該是獲利回吐的時刻」。
甚至連投資圈長久以來相信，新興亞洲國家的中產階級擴大將繼續推動消費引擎，如今也遭到質疑。財富管理公司 Julius Baer (瑞士寶盛) 在客戶報告當中寫道，人們口中常提到的亞洲消費力，其實在過去 5 年已普遍發展，如今正逐漸開始走下坡。
再加上股價下跌及信用萎縮，恐怕會加重新興亞洲消費力榮景不再的情況。一但當地消費者面臨負面財富效應，便很可能減少支出。匯豐銀 (HSBC) 亞太股票策略部主任 Herald van der Linde 更提醒，亞洲企業股票報酬結構正持續下滑，歸咎於經濟成長預期減緩，恐將傷害企業獲利，同時也令市場開放競爭所需的結構性改革受阻。
van der Linde 並預警，亞洲國家貨幣走軟將導致業務成本升高，同時令企業償還外幣債務的代價更昂貴。而這意味企業市值將在接下來幾年萎縮。
聯準會維持QE規模不變 黃金暴漲
國際現貨黃金價格在周三（9月18日）聯準會發布政策決議，意外決定不縮減量化寬鬆措施規模后大幅竄高，此后在聯準會主席伯南克發表講話進一步釋放寬鬆預期后，金價進一步擴大漲幅，當日累計上漲近3.5%，為近期以來所罕見。
業內專家指出，今年二季度以來，現貨黃金價格持續承壓下跌，部分原因在於投資者押注聯準會在年內開始逐步縮減量化寬鬆措施（QE）。在這一流動性利空前景的助推下，黃金價格曾一度累計下跌22%。
- 全球經濟溫和成長，『縮QE』讓中、日大幅賣美公債，美公債值利率大幅升至 3.08%，不利美國經濟，因此，美聯準會『縮QE』方式將改成偷偷賣出或其他方式；
- 『縮QE』延後，新興國家股市將再有波漲勢最長延伸至明年初，全球資金行情將持續；
- 『縮QE』全球資金拔河戰將發生於 2014 年中，美聯準會『縮QE』方式將改變是確認，也就是說『縮QE』是一定的但方式將改變。預估美聯準會『縮QE』方式：
- 美聯準會將運用小量縮，看美公債利率是否不再飆高；
- 美聯準會運用其他金融工具來配合『縮QE』，防止美公債利率再飆高；
- 『QE』結束後，BDI 指數是否破底是全球重要觀察指標，若BDI 破底，全球經濟轉冰冷？德國還搞不清楚再不刺激歐洲經濟，全球通縮勢力越來越大
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