2008年4月27日 星期日

US High Tech. Stock Like Google, IBM ... Will Go Flat?

After IBM stock went its 5 years highest, Google announced its profit growth and rebound to make its 20 days mean average stock price trend go up, we really faced new situation of world wide economic; it means the world wide economic is better than US, US high tech. economic will continue to lead by world wide company like Google, IBM and Apple;

We review their profie comparison with 5 different world wide based below:


Those companies such as Google, IBM, Microsoft, Apple and Intel are all world wide based but within different business in the world, it is obvious Google still have higher growth than other company; IBM and Microsoft has less revenue and profit growth, so it cannot win higher PE ratio from market investment point view;

Most important signal we need to be careful is all mean average stock price trend of IBM go up, but it is already very close its 8 years highest pressure area, this is a very important signal to the surge wave from Nasdaq 2155.46 to 2422.93 and Dow 11731.6 to 12909.2;

What is the next? if US interesting rate will be their last drop, it shows that all inflation events will force the interesting rate will go higher, so there are two situation we will face in next two weeks; we are stand on the fear of terrible US recession or worst inflation or none of them;

If we looks at technical chart of Google, IBM, Microsoft and Intel, I think everyone will know its result seems not so good as we hate to know;

所有測試 Google Spreadsheet, Google Finance API 與 Google Web computing server 之表格, 屬於 自己投資與Web computing 計劃之參考, 請勿當成投資之參考, 更勿複製也不可用於交易目的或諮詢!













































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2008年4月22日 星期二

US economic will base on world wide IT company like Google?

After Google announced its profit and revenu, I think everyone been alerted with Google operation and world wide economic situation, does the world wide economic will go much worst than we estimate? I think Google is a world wide company contains over 1600000000 users around different countries, the event shows us different things, US goes flat in economic, but other area does not go so weak when we feel sad with.

What is major factor of world wide economic relative to Google and Yahoo ...? most imporant factors we need to do the analysis is their business shape; I draft the analysis data as below for the consideration of future economic, it seems go strongly inference with those world wide internet company;




From this analysis, you will find Google, Yahoo still stronger in price, Google Gross profit margin % is still higher around 59.93%, that is an amazing number, its net profit margin goes to 25.33% due to they had a lot of investment to create new service and feature to ramp up their revenue;

I can summarize that Google is still a very strong company in the world, "Ads click number" went down is coming fromtheir new ADsense strategy to ramp up profit, not a forwarding weaker signal of world wide economic.

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2008年4月18日 星期五

Google, Yahoo, Amazon Internet Stock Investment




Thanks to my exprience to use technical and trend analysis for the investment, I simplify the investment trading by Google spreadsheet to make good understanding of my investment perfromance and behavior, hope it become a useful reference for myself and web-friend from world wide;

I had experienced to invest US stock, had good investment performance before; bacause US economic lead by internet and world wide company, so I select US top internet stock to probe US economic;

Let me start the automatic suggestion system to help us simplify the investment.

所有測試 Google Spreadsheet, Google Finance API 與 Google Web computing server 之表格, 屬於 自己投資與Web computing 計劃之參考, 請勿當成投資之參考, 更勿複製也不可用於交易目的或諮詢!







Investment Comment on April, 18th, 2008:



From the suggestion, we know Google, Price line and Amazon will start another surge to ramp up US technical stock, you can study the K chart below, will find it will be something happen after April, 18th:


















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2008年4月9日 星期三

Laura Pausini Video Collection






















Laura Pausini Video Collection


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25年內人類的馬爾薩斯災難預言

25年內人類的馬爾薩斯災難

我之所以選擇這篇來閱讀是因為數學上證明"指數速率終將超越線性速率", 也就是說人類的大災難預言已經是既將成真。
馬爾薩斯的思想很大程度是對他的父親及其朋友們（如盧梭 ）的樂觀思想的反動。 他的一些文章也是对孔赛伯爵的回应。他的一些文章也是對孔賽伯爵的回應。 在1798年发表的《人口学原理》中，马尔萨斯作出一个著名的预言：人口增长超越食物供应，会导致人均占有食物的减少。在1798年發表的《人口學原理》中，馬爾薩斯作出一個著名的預言：人口增長超越食物供應，會導致人均佔有食物的減少。
人口學原理的基本思想是：如沒有限制，人口是呈指數速率（即：2，4，8，16，32，64，128等）增長，而食物供應呈線性速率（即：1，2 ，3，4，5，6，7等）增長。 注意：马尔萨斯使用的相对应术语是几何和算术 。注意：馬爾薩斯使用的相對應術語是幾何和算術 。

只有自然原因（事故和衰老），灾难（ 战争 ， 瘟疫 ，及各类饥荒 ），道德限制和罪恶（马尔萨斯所指包括杀婴，谋杀， 节育和同性恋 ）能够限制人口的过度增长。只有自然原因（事故和衰老），災難（ 戰爭 ， 瘟疫 ，及各類飢荒 ），道德限制和罪惡（馬爾薩斯所指包括殺嬰，謀殺， 節育和同性戀 ）能夠限制人口的過度增長 。參見馬爾薩斯災難 。
最明顯證據就是近年人口指數成長的噴出現象所產生之物資需要大幅成長, 而物資供應成長是線性速率 5%, 4.5%, 4.5%, 人口是呈指數速率如右圖，所以周期性災難是必然的結果。右下圖更說明這人口指數噴出如同股票噴出類似般行情，難道人類都是循著自然率而毀滅嗎?

馬爾薩斯自己注意到許多人誤用他的理論，痛苦地闡明他沒有僅僅預測未來的大災難。 他辩解道，“……周期性灾难持续存在的原因自人类有史以来就已经存在，目前仍然存在，并且将来会继续存在，除非我们的大自然的物理结构发生决定性的变化。”因此，马尔萨斯认为他的《人口学原理》是对人类过去和目前状况的解释，以及对我们未来的预测。他辯解道，“……週期性災難持續存在的原因自人類有史以來就已經存在，目前仍然存在，並且將來會繼續存在，除非我們的大自然的物理結構發生決定性的變化。”因此，馬爾薩斯認為他的《人口學原理》是對人類過去和目前狀況的解釋，以及對我們未來的預測。
馬爾薩斯的《1798論文》表達了以下八個主要觀點：
  1. 人口數量嚴重受限於生存手段人口數量嚴重受限於生存手段
  2. 當生存手段增加後，人口也相應增加當生存手段增加後，人口也相應增加
  3. 人口壓力刺激生產增長人口壓力刺激生產增長
  4. 生產增長反過來也刺激人口增長生產增長反過來也刺激人口增長
  5. 從長遠來看，生產增長不能與人口的增長潛力保持同步，人口數量與供養能力之間必將出現巨大裂痕從長遠來看，生產增長不能與人口的增長潛力保持同步，人口數量與供養能力之間必將出現巨大裂痕
  6. 性、勞動和子女等影響人口和生產力的諸多因素由個​​人的收支決定所影響性、勞動和子女等影響人口和生產力的諸多因素由個​​人的收支決定所影響
  7. 當人口增長超過供養能力時，正面的抑制因素會發揮作用當人口增長超過供養能力時，正面的抑制因素會發揮作用
  8. 這些抑制因素的本質將對生物社會系統的其他部分產生影響這些抑制因素的本質將對生物社會系統的其他部分產生影響
分析：

依人口指數噴出如同股票噴出類似般行情，必然有兩種發展：
  • 人口指數噴出後，受教育普及、食物、通膨、氣候溫室效應影響，進入高原期；
  • 人口指數噴出後，受食物、資源衝突影響，進入戰爭期，人口突然大減；


Malthus seems to have had some knowledge of this law , he did not use it as the basis of his conclusions。 Now the "law of diminishing，returns" is simply the phrase by which，economists describe the well-known fact that a man cannot go on indefinitely increasing the amount of capital and labour that he expends upon a piece of land, and continue to get profitable returns。 Sooner or later a point is reached where the product of the latest increment of expenditure is less than the expenditure itself。 This point has already been reached in many regions, whence a part of the population is compelled to move to other land。 When it has been reached everywhere, population will universally exceed subsistence.普遍超過了溫飽。 Stated in this form , ， Malthusianism seems to be malthusianism irrefutable。 Nevertheless the law of diminishing returns, like all economic laws is true only in certain conditions。 Change the conditions , in this case, the methods of production, and the law is no longer operative。 With new productive processes, further expenditures of labour and capital become profitable, and the point of diminishing returns is moved farther away。 This fact has received frequent illustration in the history of agriculture and mining。 While it is true that new methods are not always discovered as soon as they are needed, and that men often find it more profitable to expend their additional resources upon new lands than upon the old, it is also true that we can set no definite limits to the inventive power of man , nor to the man ， potential fertility of nature 。 Absolutely speaking, no one is warranted in asserting that these two forces will not be able to modify indefinitely the conditions in which the law of diminishing returns operates, so that subsistence， will keep pace with population as long as men have standing room upon the earth。 On the other hand, we cannot， prove that if population were to increase up to the full limit of its， physiological possibilities, it would always be sufficiently provided for by the fertility of nature and the inventiveness of man。 We are dealing here with three unknown quantities。 Upon such a basis it is impossible either to establish asocial law ， conclusively to refute any particular generalization that may be set up。 In the third place, the Malthusian theory, even if true , is of no practical use。 The assurance that population, if unchecked， will inevitably press upon subsistence does not terrify us, when we realize that it always has been checked, by celibacy , late marriages , war ，生存沒有恐嚇我們，當我們認識到，它總是有得到有效遏制，由獨身 ， 晚婚 ， 戰爭 ， natural calamities, and other forces which are not due to scarcity of subsistence.各種自然災害和其他勢力，是不是因為缺乏生活來源。 The practical question for any people is whether these non-scarcity checks are likely to keep population within the limits of that ，很可能要等到人口的界限，即 people's productive resources.人們的生產性資源。 So far as the nations of the 到目前為止，作為國家的 Western world are concerned, this question may be answered in the affirmative.西方世界來說，這一問題可能會回答是肯定的。

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2008年4月6日 星期日

台灣上班族一生總稅率是多少?

美麗的紫色
每一個台灣上班族可能都是相同命運，肩負臺灣政府建設與選舉支票所有支付，問題我們好像都以為這是理所當然，想一想我就把這題目仔細用兩個例子去計算，來說明臺灣上班族相同命運，你要脫離忙碌進入悠閒的提早退休生活，讓你親人能享受你 10 ~ 15 年的努力，一生總稅率是多少 ? 一定要了解，我們就這樣一生，發光發熱忙碌之後，當然希望把更多時間與悠閒用在愛你的親人與親密相處。讓他們這一生給我們的愛與鼓勵不會因為那一天我們真的突然不在他們身旁，讓他們徬徨。

第一個例子是 扶養一親人年齡未超過滿70歲，每月支出36000NT，打拼15年，平均年利率 2.2% ，平均減掉平均年利率之報酬率 4.5%;

由2012政府歲出估算，最後你會發現，台灣稅率是亞洲非常高的國家，政府每年稅收 93.6%都是中央及地方花費掉，其中，公務員經常性支出就占整個政府支出之 83%，是一年近兩兆之 83%，勞工實在可憐，什麼都繳給政府卻連勞保基金未來都不保？



第二個例子是 扶養二親人年齡都超過滿70歲，每月支出30000NT，打拼15年，平均年利率 2.2% ，平均減掉平均年利率之報酬率 4.5%;



你這一生每年繳的稅 加上 你每年儲蓄經由定存與投資( 平均年利率 + 報酬率 )復利所產生遺產稅 比上你一生累積所得 既一生總稅率，你會發現只要你台北有房子加上存款，你一生繳給政府真的是很多，問題是我們能得到甚麼福利？ 這要在下一次再講解，我發現上班族延用這樣制度下來的結果，有錢人他們都應該有其他絕技節稅。

當你想到 38000000NT 資產，將近 26.00% 一生總稅率。 我們繳給政府多，為什麼用勞退新制領到這麼少？ 為什麼這制度是這樣？勞工福利支出只占稅收總支出低於 4.6%，錢都被政府浪費掉了。

其實所有媒體記者都是勞工，繳稅與勞工福利關係很小幾乎沒有，真正由政府稅收支出至勞工福利就是勞保，只要政府增加勞保費負擔，勞工就真的可以得到福利。以台灣綜合所得稅最高稅率 40% 比較全世界國家之福利，台灣勞工本來就該享有至稅收得到較高之福利，而不是稅收總支出低於 4.6%之相關福利，這是台灣勞工基本權利應該爭取的。

勞工月薪低於 60000 NT 還可以由勞退給付拿回一部份勞工繳的稅，而月薪高於100000 NT，繳給政府稅是肯定都是拿不回來，因此，行善與節稅是重要的人生工作。
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