2014年2月15日 星期六

谷哥眼鏡產品策略 - 雲端加值服務 ( Google Glass Goes Into Cloud Value Added Service )

谷哥眼鏡 有望成紐約警方辦案利器

為了提升警員辦案效率,紐約市警局( NYPD )可望採購谷哥(Google Project Glass )眼鏡作為辦案工具。

一名紐約市警局高階警官向科技網站VentureBeat透露,已經取得數副谷歌眼鏡,也正在測試能否協助警方執行勤務,特別是能否協助巡邏員警盤查嫌犯時,迅速比對資料庫的罪犯資料,或是在問話時讀取嫌犯犯罪紀錄。

不過,谷歌則發布新聞稿否認將與紐約市警局合作,但表示紐約市警局應該是透過「谷歌眼鏡探索者計畫」( Google Glass Explorer Program)購入谷歌眼鏡。谷哥表示,任何年滿18歲的美國居民,只要提出申請,並獲得谷歌同意後,就能以每副1500美元價格購入谷歌眼鏡。

對於科技網站報導,紐約市警方不願回應。

Startups see healthy future for Google Glass in medicine ( 谷哥眼鏡雲端加值的醫療應用 )

Among the tech elite, Google Glass is a sleek symbol of minimalist, futuristic cool.But several startups see deeper potential in Glass: the ability to heal wounds and save lives.

Pristine in Austin, Texas makes the app EyeSight, which enables physicians and nurses to transmit live video and audio of wound patients from Glass to authorized computers, smartphones and tablets. After months of a pilot program at UC Irvine, the startup said this week it will soon roll out the technology at outpatient wound care clinics operated by Wound Care Advantage in Southern California.

"We're really using this primarily as a tool, to help people connect where it was either not possible or practical before," said Kyle Samani, CEO of Pristine, which started last spring in Austin, Texas. "If, for whatever reason, the doctor is not physically here, we'll find the next best way to get him here."

For decades, telemedicine has been slowly working its way into the doctor's office in the form of desktops, laptops, digital cameras, tablets and other gadgets. Now comes Glass, which Google plans to make available to the public this year. And Pristine isn't the only company seeking to capitalize on the device's Wi-Fi, Bluetooth, camera and voice activation in the medical world.

Augmedix, founded by two former Stanford University students, is working on a system that would roughly translate information from Glass' audiovisual stream directly into a patient's medical record. Healium, co-founded by a Mill Valley doctor, is also developing an app that would let doctors share patient information through Glass.

Linking patients, experts

In Pristine's case, a nurse will use Glass to stream a video of a patient's wound to a doctor, who will then decide whether he or she should examine the injury in person, said Mike Comer, CEO of Wound Care Advantage. The company operates or helps run wound care clinics in hospitals, which involves providing equipment and hiring and training personnel to deal with chronic injuries.

"It's a way for us to bring experts to patients very quickly, very seamlessly," Comer said.

Chronic wounds, a market worth $25 billion, offer a particularly promising opportunity for Glass because patients need constant monitoring and outpatient care. About 6.5 million patients in the United States suffer from the condition, according to the National Institutes of Health. These wounds, such as diabetic ulcers and venous ulcers, can take more than six weeks to heal.

Since October, Pristine has been testing EyeSight through a pilot program with surgeons and anesthesiologists at UC Irvine.

Dr. Leslie Garson, one of the anesthesiologists, said Glass has proved useful during the 15 or so surgeries he has worked on so far, especially because he often monitors two or even three surgeries simultaneously.

"A resident could have Google Glass on, they could be looking at a monitor, and I could have a tablet down the hall and could see exactly what they're seeing," he said. "They can send me an alert - 'Take a look at this,' 'Is this something I should be concerned about?' "

Still, Glass, like any new technology, has skeptics.

San Jose doctor skeptical

Dr. Peter Schubart, director of the Wound Care Clinic at O'Connor Hospital in San Jose, doesn't see a great advantage in Glass. Schubart and his staff constantly take digital photographs of wounds and upload them to the electronic medical record system. It takes all of 20 seconds, he said. He also wonders if insurers and Medicare will still compensate him if he determined, by way of Glass, that a patient didn't require in-person treatment. Under health care reform, Samani said insurers will increasingly pay for quality of care instead of the standard fee-for-service model.

Consumer advocates have also raised concerns that hackers might steal sensitive patient information. To allay those fears, Pristine executives say the company offers the only commercially available Glass software that complies with the federal government's strict rules on patient privacy. EyeSight's encrypted video stream is strictly live, Samani said.

"Videos are not being saved, not even for a microsecond," he said. "We don't want anyone to feel the world is watching."

Over the long term, Pristine plans to bring Glass into intensive-care units, emergency rooms and ambulances. Samani wouldn't disclose how much it costs for hospitals to sign up but believes Glass offers plenty of opportunities in health care. Over the next month, wound care centers of three hospitals, including the University of Southern California's Verdugo Hills Hospital, will use the device.

Even Schubart, the skeptic, said he will keep an open mind about the new technology.

"I've learned to never say never," he said.

The NYPD Is Testing Google Glass ( 谷哥眼鏡雲端加值的美國警察 )

According to a report by VentureBeat, The New York City Police Department is currently investigating how useful Google Glass could be in the fight against the city's crime.

It's claimed that the department recently took delivery of several pairs of Google's smart glasses. "We signed up, got a few pairs of the Google glasses, and we're trying them out, seeing if they have any value in investigations, mostly for patrol purposes," a New York City law enforcement official told VentureBeat. "We're looking at them, you know, seeing how they work."

If it's true, it's no real surprise. Last summer, a federal judge ruled that New York City's "stop-and-frisk" violated the rights of minorities in the city. In her recommendations accompanying the ruling, Judge Shira Scheindlin ordered the NYPD to test wearable cameras in five precincts where the controversial search tactic was used. Google Glass could fill that role perfectly.

A Google employeetold VentureBeat that the company hadn't been working with the NYPD, and said that the law enforcement agency had "likely acquired the glasses through the Google Glass Explorer program." That will have involved the typical application and subsequent ponying up of $1,500 per pair.

Of course, whether each and every NYPD cop should be toting a camera on their face remains to be seen. Evidence from experiments in other parts of the country suggest cameras encourage police to behave better, as well as protecting them from fraudulent reports of abuse. Critics—including Mayor Mike Bloomberg—argue the data they collect will create an enforcement nightmare. What do you guys think?

Google Glass Eyed for Wearable Soldier Gear ( 谷哥眼鏡雲端加值的美軍 )

Army officials have been after a way to outfit soldiers with wearable computers for years, but have repeatedly failed to find a system that both delivers information coherently and avoids impairing troops’ perception of the battlefield.

The military’s notoriously Byzantine process by which it develops and adopts technology may not be entirely to blame, engineers that bridge both government and commercial technology spheres tell National Defense.

While parts of the military suffer from an “institutional rejection of innovation,” even in the swifter commercial sector wearable computers have generally been failures until recent advances, said John Clark, chief innovation officer for Thermopylae Sciences and Technology.

Based in Arlington, Va., Thermopylae specializes in taking commercially available technologies and converting them to military and government use.

“For years, people have been trying to make wearable computing happen, but to be honest … they have all been terrible,” Clark says.

The Army found that out the hard way during several efforts to create a wearable situational awareness and computing system for soldiers. So far, the service has nothing to show for its efforts.

“But there has been some really cool innovation that has happened in late 2012, early 2013,” Clark said. “How can we take those emergent technologies, and make them implementable and affordable for government and commercial clients?”

The most notable entry recently into the mobile-computing market is Google Glass, about 1,500 of which are in the hands of testers like Clark. Other companies, including a startup called Oculus VR, have developed or are in the process of bringing to market similar wearable computing devices.

While Glass was not developed for military applications, its importance is the awareness the device brings to the possibility of ubiquitous mobile computing, Clark said.

“For all the work Google has put into it, there is no real desire to take [Glass] and apply it directly to a military mission,” he said. “This is a consumer product. But because of what Google has done … there will be other similar models that are perhaps ruggedized that can apply directly to [special operations forces]. Or, it will inspire people to integrate the technology into riflescopes or night vision goggles.”

The point of Google Glass is to develop a revolutionary method of interacting with technology — to figure out the optimum way to deliver information and have the user digest it without distraction. Currently, the system performs only rudimentary tasks like sending text messages, taking photos and video and receiving news and social media alerts. Eventually, Glass or an evolutionary version will allow more sophisticated applications.

Instead of a pair of glasses or a monocle with a heads-up display, Glass positions a small prism over the upper right corner of the wearer’s right eye. The user can either slide a finger along the arm of the device or speak directly to it to perform a number of tasks like reading email or taking photos. The prism becomes transparent and is all but unnoticeable when not in use. There are no lenses or screens over the eyes, so the wearer can naturally hold a conversation or walk, unobstructed, even when the screen is activated.

The technology has gained the attention of scientists and engineers who develop and purchase equipment for the special operations community. However, concerns were expressed in May at the Special Operations Forces Industry Conference that Google Glass in its current form could harm operators’ eyesight. Attention is being paid to what Google is doing with Glass, but extensive human trials will be necessary before a special operations sniper wears a pair on the battlefield, SOF officials said.

Raytheon is marketing  a wearable joint tactical air controller system that allows ground forces to tag elements in the environment using a helmet-mounted monocle that covers the whole eye but is see-through. That system consists of a chest-mounted computer, the monocle and a smartphone worn on the wrist or elsewhere. It allows a soldier to call in an air strike on a target simply by viewing it through the eyepiece and clicking the phone’s screen.

Though only recently unveiled at the 2013 Paris Air Show, Raytheon’s Advanced Warfighter Awareness for Real-time Engagement (AWARE) system resembles similar concepts the Army has tested to provide computing and communication capabilities to soldiers.

Future Force Warrior, developed in conjunction with the now-defunct Future Combat Systems, sought to create a lightweight, integrated mobile computing system for soldiers. It was one in a series of “network-centric” infantry combat projects the military undertook during the past decade. Others included the Soldier Integrated Protective Ensemble and Land Warrior. The latter was canceled in 2007, then resurrected the following year under the name Nett Warrior. The program is designed to use both commercial, off-the-shelf technologies and existing military gear to extend communications and command and control to individual troops.

When the Army attached smartphones to rifleman radios and gave them to troops during a 2011 network integration evaluation, soldiers said they were receiving too much information.

“There’s no need for me to have this,” Army Pvt. David Kramlich said then of the Joint Battle Command-Platform (JBC-P) Handheld. He said troops of his rank don’t need to be overloaded with information that is used to make command decisions.

The JBC-P provides GPS and voice communications. It can be used to plan missions, receive sensor feeds, mark buildings and rooms that have been cleared, communicate via text message and track friendly and enemy forces, much like Raytheon’s AWARE system.

Nett Warrior is a similar system that began years ago as a weighty suite of wearable computers that has since been shrunk down to individual phones and tablets carried in pouches or pockets.

Consensus among soldiers and their leaders at the NIE was that not every soldier needs Nett Warrior and that systems that require soldiers to consult a smartphone in battle are distracting.

With Glass, Google is trying to arrive at how users can access information without having to look down at a separate screen. Test wearers like Clark and his brother, Thermopylae President A.J. Clark, are helping the company figure out how to deliver information through the device and what applications are most useful.

“We need to make sure these applications work in a wearable environment,” A.J. Clark said. “A smartphone is one construct, a laptop is another. Wearable is taking it to a new dimension.”

“Google provides a very strong foundational layer. They invest tons of resources to make these technologies stronger and keep up with the edge of technology,” he added. “We are at the application level and then at the end, the government gets the added value of all that investment through the strata.”

分析
  • 谷哥眼鏡 Google Glass 加速往雲端應用發展讓 Google 生意模式產生新的創新;
  • 谷哥眼鏡 Google Glass 雲端加值服務之產品策略將使 Google 未來在雲端服務產值提高;
  • 智能穿載式雲端應用將成為雲端加值服務之趨勢;
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2014年2月8日 星期六

思科預估2013 ~ 2018年全球行動資料傳輸量及行動網路九大趨勢 ( Cisco estimates from 2013 to 2018 the massive growth of global mobile data traffic and 9 trends of mobile Internet )

思科:2018年全球行動資料傳輸量將暴增至190 EB
Figure 10. Mobile Video Will Generate Over
 69 Percent of Mobile Data Traffic by 2018

「行動(Mobile)」一詞過去曾經只涵蓋手機、平板電腦,現在則已泛指各式各樣的穿戴裝置,例如智慧手錶、健康狀態追蹤器、谷歌眼鏡(Google Glass)等等。思科( Cisco System )認為,這些科技新品將帶動資料傳輸需求,預期到了2018年,全球行動資料傳輸量將暴增至 190 exabytes (1 exabyte等於十億 gigabytes)。

CNBC、Re/code報導,思科5日在年度預測報告中指出,2018年190 exabytes 的行動資料傳輸量等於較 2013年的傳輸量跳增11倍,也相當於42兆份影像、或是4兆片影片。這也是2000年固網、行動網路總傳輸量的190倍。

在行動資料用量快速增加的環境下,使用這些資料的行動裝置數量也將在2018年由2013年的70億台跳升至100億台。根據聯合國統計,2018年全球人口僅76億人,意味著屆時行動裝置的數量會是全球總人口的1.4倍。

行動資料傳輸量有如此爆炸性的成長,主要得益於穿戴科技的普及,思科把智慧手錶、Google Glass等穿戴裝置統一歸類至「機器對機器的連結」類別(大多屬於物聯網領域),這個分類在2013年僅佔全球行動資料傳輸量的1%,預料到了2018年會增加至6%。

另外,思科也預估,2018年全球有在使用的穿戴裝置數量將由2013年的不到2,200萬台躍升至接近1.7億台。

Cisco Visual Networking Index: Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast Update, 2013–2018

The Mobile Network Through 2018
Figure 1. Cisco Forecasts 15.9 Exabytes per
 Month of Mobile Data Traffic by 2018

Mobile data traffic will reach the following milestones within the next five years.

  • Monthly global mobile data traffic will surpass 15 exabytes by 2018.
  • The number of mobile-connected devices will exceed the world's population by 2014.
  • The average mobile connection speed will surpass 2 Mbps by 2016.
  • Due to increased usage on smartphones, smartphones will reach 66 percent of mobile data traffic by 2018.
  • Monthly mobile tablet traffic will surpass 2.5 exabyte per month by 2018.
  • Tablets will exceed 15 percent of global mobile data traffic by 2016.
  • 4G traffic will be more than half of the total mobile traffic by 2018.
  • There will be more traffic offloaded from cellular networks (on to Wi-Fi) than remain on cellular networks by 2018.

Global mobile data traffic will increase nearly 11-fold between 2013 and 2018.
Figure 2. Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast by Region
全球行動資料傳輸量 ( 區域 )

  • Mobile data traffic will grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 61 percent from 2013 to 2018, reaching 15.9 exabytes per month by 2018.
  • By the end of 2014, the number of mobile-connected devices will exceed the number of people on earth, and by 2018 there will be nearly 1.4 mobile devices per capita. There will be over 10 billion mobile-connected devices by 2018, including machine-to-machine (M2M) modules-exceeding the world's population at that time (7.6 billion).
  • Mobile network connection speeds will increase two-fold by 2018. The average mobile network connection speed (1,387 Kbps in 2013) will exceed 2.5 megabits per second (Mbps) by 2018.
  • By 2018, 4G will be 15 percent of connections, but 51 percent of total traffic. By 2018, a 4G connection will generate 6 times more traffic on average than a non-4G connection.
  • By 2018, over half of all devices connected to the mobile network will be "smart" devices. Globally, 54 percent of mobile devices will be smart devices by 2018, up from 21 percent in 2013. The vast majority of mobile data traffic (96 percent) will originate from these smart devices by 2018, up from 88 percent in 2013.
  • By 2018, 48 percent of all global mobile devices could potentially be capable of connecting to an IPv6 mobile network. Over 4.9 billion devices will be IPv6-capable by 2018.
  • Over two-thirds of the world's mobile data traffic will be video by 2018. Mobile video will increase 14-fold between 2013 and 2018, accounting for 69 percent of total mobile data traffic by the end of the forecast period.
Global Mobile Data Traffic, 2013 to 2018
Figure 3. Global Mobile Devices and Connections Growth

Overall mobile data traffic is expected to grow to 15.9 exabytes per month by 2018, nearly an 11-fold increase over 2013. Mobile data traffic will grow at a CAGR of 61 percent from 2013 to 2018 (Figure 1).

The Asia Pacific and North America regions will account for almost two-thirds of global mobile traffic by 2018, as shown in Figure 2. Middle East and Africa will experience the highest CAGR of 70 percent, increasing 14-fold over the forecast period. Central and Eastern Europe will have the second highest CAGR of 68 percent, increasing 13-fold over the forecast period. The emerging market regions of Asia Pacific and Latin America will have CAGRs of 67 percent and 66 percent respectively.
Figure 6. Global Mobile Devices
and Connections by 2G, 3G, and 4G

  • Trend 1: Transitioning to Smarter Mobile Devices ( 全球轉換到智能行動裝置 )
    • The increasing number of wireless devices that are accessing mobile networks worldwide is one of the primary contributors to global mobile traffic growth. Each year several new devices in different form factors and increased capabilities and intelligence are being introduced in the market. Over half a billion (526 million) mobile devices and connections were added in 2013. Global mobile devices and connections grew, in 2013, to 7 billion, up from 6.5 billion in 2012. Globally, mobile devices and connections will grow to 10.2 billion by 2018 at a CAGR of 8 percent (Figure 3). By 2018, there will be 8.2 billion handheld or personal mobile-ready devices and 2 billion machine-to-machine connections (e.g., GPS systems in cars, asset tracking systems in shipping and manufacturing sectors, or medical applications making patient records and health status more readily available, et al). Regionally, North America and Western Europe are going to have the fastest growth in mobile devices and connections with 12 percent and 10 percent CAGR from 2013 to 2018 respectively.
    • The growth in 4G, with its higher bandwidth, lower latency, and increased security, will help regions bridge the gap between their mobile and fixed network performance. ( 4G 成主流 ) This will lead to even higher adoption of mobile technologies by end users, making access to any content on any device from anywhere more of a reality.(Figure 6)
  • Trend 2: Measuring Internet of Everything Adoption-Emerging Wearable Devices ( 新興的穿戴設備透過物聯網連結一切 )
    Figure 7. Global Machine-to-Machine Growth and
    Migration from 2G to 3G and 4G
    • The phenomenal growth in smarter end-user devices and M2M connections is a clear indicator of the growth of the Internet of everything (IoE), which is bringing together people, processes, data, and things to make networked connections more relevant and valuable. In this section, we will focus on the continued growth of M2M connections and the emerging trend of wearable devices. Both M2M and wearable devices are making computing and connectivity very pervasive in our day-to-day lives.
    • M2M connections-such as home and office security and automation, smart metering and utilities, maintenance, building automation, automotive, healthcare and consumer electronics, and more-are being used across a broad spectrum of industries, as well as in the consumer segment. As real-time information monitoring helps companies deploy new video-based security systems, while also helping hospitals and healthcare professionals remotely monitor the progress of their patients, bandwidth-intensive M2M connections are becoming more prevalent. Globally, M2M connections will grow from 341 million in 2013 to over 2 billion by 2018, a 43 percent CAGR. M2M capabilities similar to end-user mobile devices are migrating from 2G to 3G and 4G technologies. In 2013, 71 percent of global mobile M2M connections were connected using 2G connectivity, while 28 percent used 3G, and less than 0.5 percent used 4G. By 2018, only 35 percent of M2M modules will have 2G connectivity; 51 percent will have 3G connectivity; and 14 percent will have 4G connectivity (Figure 7). 
      Figure 8. Global Connected Wearable Devices
      全球智能穿載裝置成長精人
    • An important factor contributing to the growing adoption of IoE is the emergence of wearable devices, a category with high growth potential. Wearable devices, as the name suggests, are devices that can be worn on a person, which have the capability to connect and communicate to the network either directly through embedded cellular connectivity or through another device (primarily a smartphone) using Wi-Fi, Bluetooth or another technology. These devices come in various shapes and forms, ranging from smart watches, smart glasses, heads-up displays (HUD), health and fitness trackers, health monitors, wearable scanners and navigation devices, smart clothing, and so forth. The growth in these devices has been fuelled by enhancements in technology that have supported compression of computing and other electronics (making the devices light enough to be worn). These advances are being combined with fashion to match personal styles, especially in the consumer electronics segment, along with network improvements and the growth of applications, such as location-based services and augmented reality. While there have been vast technological improvements to make wearables possible as a significant device category, the embedded cellular connectivity still has some barriers, such as technology, regulatory, and health concerns, to overcome before it becomes widely available and adopted. (Figure 8)
  • Trend 3: Analyzing Mobile Applications-Video Dominance ( 移動視頻應用成主流 )
  • Figure 12. High-End Devices
    Significantly Multiply Traffic
    • Because mobile video content has much higher bit rates than other mobile content types, mobile video will generate much of the mobile traffic growth through 2018. Mobile video will grow at a CAGR of 69 percent between 2013 and 2018, the highest growth rate of any mobile application category that we forecast, other than machine-to-machine traffic. Of the 15.9 exabytes per month crossing the mobile network by 2018, 11 exabytes will be due to video (Figure 10). Mobile video represented more than half of global mobile data traffic beginning in 2012, indicating that it is having an immediate impact on traffic today, not just in the future. (Figure 10)
  • Trend 4: Profiling Bandwidth Consumption by Device ( 由設備的性能分析頻寬消耗 )
    • The proliferation of high-end handsets, tablets, and laptops on mobile networks is a major traffic generator, because these devices offer the consumer content and applications not supported by previous generations of mobile devices. As shown in Figure 12, a single smartphone can generate as much traffic as 49 basic-feature phones; a tablet as much traffic as 127 basic-feature phones; and a single laptop can generate as much traffic as 227 basic-feature phones. (Figure 12)
  • Trend 5: Assessing Mobile Traffic/Offload by Access Type (2G, 3G, and 4G) ( 評估移動流量/卸載通過行動網路類型(2G,3G和4G))
    Figure 13. 51 Percent of Total Mobile
    Data Traffic Will Be 4G by 2018
    • Impact of 4G: While 3G and 3.5G account for the majority (60 percent) of mobile data traffic today, 4G will grow to represent over half of all mobile data traffic by 2018, despite a connection share of only 15 percent (Figure 13). (Figure 13)
    • Currently, a 4G connection generates nearly 15 times more traffic than a non-4G connection. There are two reasons for this. The first is that many 4G connections today are for high-end devices, which have a higher average usage. The second is that higher speeds encourage the adoption and usage of high-bandwidth applications, such that a smartphone on a 4G network is likely to generate 50 percent more traffic than the same model smartphone on a 3G or 3.5G network. As smartphones come to represent a larger share of 4G connections, the gap between the average traffic of 4G devices and non-4G devices will narrow, but by 2018 a 4G connection will still generate 6 times more traffic than a non-4G connection.
  • Trend 6: Comparing Mobile Network Speeds ( 移動網絡速度依網路世代而不同 )
    Figure 17. Mobile Speeds by Technology 2G vs. 3G vs. 4G
    • Globally, the average mobile network connection speed in 2013 was 1,387 Kbps. The average speed will grow at a compound annual growth rate of 13 percent, and will exceed 2.5 Mbps by 2018. Smartphone speeds, generally third-generation (3G) and higher, are currently almost three times higher than the overall average. Smartphone speeds will nearly double by 2018, reaching 7 Mbps.
    • There is anecdotal evidence to support the idea that usage increases when speed increases, although there is often a delay between the increase in speed and the increased usage, which can range from a few months to several years. The Cisco VNI Forecast relates application bit rates to the average speeds in each country. Many of the trends in the resulting traffic forecast can be seen in the speed forecast, such as the high growth rates for developing countries and regions relative to more developed areas. 
  • Trend 7: Reviewing Tiered Pricing-Managing Top Mobile Users ( 分級定價管理熱門手機用戶 )
    Figure 22. All Top Tiers Increase in Absolute
    Usage (MB per Month) from 2011 to 2013
    • An increasing number of service providers worldwide are moving from unlimited data plans to tiered mobile data packages. To make an initial estimate of the impact of tiered pricing on traffic growth, we repeated a case study based on the data of two Tier 1 global service providers from mature mobile markets. The study tracks data usage from the timeframe of the introduction of tiered pricing three years ago. The findings in this study are based on Cisco's analysis of data provided by a third-party data analysis firm. This firm maintains a panel of volunteer participants who have given the company access to their mobile service bills, including KB of data usage. The data in this study reflects usage associated with over 38,889 devices and spans 12 months (October 2012 through September 2013) and also refers to the study from the previous update for longer term trends. The overall study spans three years. Cisco's analysis of the data consists of categorizing the pricing plans, operating systems, devices, and users; incorporating additional third-party information on device characteristics; and performing exploratory and statistical data analysis. While the results of the study represent actual data from Tier 1 mobile data operators, global forecasts that include emerging markets, and Tier 2 providers may lead to lower estimates. 
      Figure 23. 3 Percent of Users Consume 5 GB per
      Month and 24 Percent Consume over 2 GB per Month
    • Over the period of the nearly 3-year study, the percentage of tiered plans compared to all data plans increased from 4 percent to 55 percent, while unlimited plans dropped from 81 percent to 45 percent. This has not, however, constrained usage patterns. From 2012 to 2013, average usage per device on a tiered plan grew from 922 MB per month to 1,081 MB per month, while usage per device of unlimited plans grew at from a higher base of 1,261 MB per month to 1,890 MB per month.
  • Trend 8: Adopting IPv6-Beyond an Emerging Protocol  ( 大幅採用 IPv6 的一個新興通訊規範 )
    Figure 27. Global IPv6-Capable Smartphones
    and Tablets Reach 3.5 Billion by 2018
    • The transition to IPv6 is well underway, which helps connect and manage the proliferation of newer-generation devices that are contributing to mobile network usage and data traffic growth. Continuing the Cisco VNI focus on IPv6, the Cisco VNI 2013-2018 Mobile Data Traffic Forecast provides an update on IPv6-capable mobile devices and connections and the potential for IPv6 mobile data traffic. 
    • Focusing on the high-growth mobile-device segments of smartphones and tablets, the forecast projects that globally 79 percent of smartphones and tablets (3.5 billion) will be IPv6 capable by 2018 (up from 46 percent or 837 million smartphones and tablets in 2013). This estimation is based on OS support of IPv6 (primarily Android and iOS) and the accelerated move to higher-speed mobile networks (3.5G or higher) capable of enabling IPv6. (This forecast is intended as a projection of the number of IPv6-capable mobile devices, not mobile devices with an IPv6 connection actively configured by the ISP.)
  • Trend 9: Defining Mobile "Prime Time"-Peak vs. Average Usage ( 定義移動“黃金時間”峰值與平均使用 )
    Figure 30. Mobile Busy Hour Is 66% Higher
    Than Average Hour in 2013, 83% by 2018
    • Mobile video applications have a "prime time" in that they are predominantly used during certain times of day. Web and general data usage tends to occur throughout the day, but video consumption is highest in the evening. Video therefore has a higher peak-to-average ratio than web and data. Live video and video communications have higher peak-to-average ratios than video-on-demand. As the mobile network application mix shifts towards video, and as the video mix increasingly includes live video and video communication, the overall mobile data peak-to-average ratio increases. Busy hour mobile traffic is growing at a slightly higher pace than average hour traffic, and by 2018 mobile busy hour traffic will be 83 percent higher than average hour traffic by 2018, compared to 66 percent in 2013 (Figure 30).
分析

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2014年2月5日 星期三

2015 ~ 2016 若中國金融風暴危機來臨時 - 將有那些影響 ( If China happen with finance crisis around 2015 ~ 2016, what is the major impact to world wide economic )

中國影子銀行崩潰將致全球風險 影響遠超金融危機

相關數據顯示,中國影子銀行規模已達30萬億元人民幣左右,超過2012年GDP的50%。專家稱,過度膨脹的影子銀行帶來的風險日益凸顯。

China debt increased more than US, Japan from 2008 ~ 2013
直到上個月辭職,債信評級公司惠譽( Fitch )前駐華高級分析師朱夏蓮在過去八年來,一直警告中國債務泡沫行將崩潰。隨著最近幾週中國工商銀行銷售的「誠至金開1號」信託產品瀕臨違約,朱夏蓮的警告顯示了它特別的份量。

史無前例的信貸擴張 遠超西方金融危機

英國《電訊報》1日報導說,出生和成長於美國的朱夏蓮畢業於耶魯大學。她宣告中國已經開啟了一個史無前例的信貸擴張,遠遠超過六年前震撼西方市場的金融危機。在中國,即使是最大的銀行都不喜歡公開資料。雖然在這麼一個環境下,朱夏蓮自從2009年就開始警告中國借貸快速擴張,新增信貸15萬億美元,推動了史無前例的房地產和基礎設施建造熱潮。

去年惠譽成為三大評級機構當中,14年來第一個下調中國主權債務評級的機構,它主要就是依據朱夏蓮的分析。

五年前就警告影子銀行問題

《電訊報》指出,如果說朱夏蓮的多年的警告不同尋常,但還是遠遠低估了她在中國銀行系統研究方面的重要性。朱夏蓮在五年前就解釋了中國影子銀行行業的建立,它今天的貸款等同於中國整個主流金融系統的數量。朱夏蓮已加入受人尊敬的獨立研究公司「自主研究」( Autonomous),擔任亞洲區
研究主管。她對《電訊報》表示,她仍然堅定的認為,中國銀行的崩潰不是機會很小,而是必然的。

她說:「銀行業在五年內已經貸出14萬億到15萬億美元。中國不發生大規模問題是不可能的。」

China local govt Deficits issue became very serious
在這些問題的背後,是一大堆莫名其妙的「信託」、「理財產品」和外匯借貸,它們允許債務擴張,即使當局試圖箝制大銀行的主流借貸。隨著最近幾週中國工商銀行試圖撇清對其銷售的「誠至金開1號」信託產品的違約責任,朱夏蓮的警告具有別的份量。這個產品瀕臨違約促使外界擔憂這可能成為中國的「貝爾斯登時刻」。這家具有85年歷史的華爾街投資銀行貝爾斯登( Bear Stearns )在2008年的美國次級按揭風暴中嚴重虧損,瀕臨破產而被收購。

官方銀行系統和影子銀行是孿生兄弟

在這次事件中,中國工商銀行信託產品得以避免違約,但是朱夏蓮仍然清楚表示,官方銀行系統和孿生兄弟影子銀行之間的聯繫仍然是一個威脅。
「在許多這樣的影子產品當中,銀行常常在幕後捲入。」朱夏蓮說。「這是為甚麼我總是駁斥中國經濟學家和學者們常常推動的一個說法,即影子銀行領域和正式銀行領域是分開的,因此如果影子銀行分崩離析,也沒有關係。」「我就是不同意這個說法,因為在正式銀行領域和影子銀行領域之間有這麼多的內部聯繫。中國工商銀行的這個產品就是一個好的例子。」

泡沫破裂之後的經濟是最大擔憂

朱夏蓮表示,絕對有理由擔憂,中國已經形成一個真正的房地產泡沫。這個泡沫的破裂可能留下一個非常不同的中國。而危機後的經濟是朱夏蓮最大的擔憂。朱夏蓮擔憂中國可能難以適應一個增長放緩的步伐。「沒有一個發達市場和一個非常強大的社會安全網絡。如果我們陷入一個金融系統有嚴重問題的情況,較大的可能是,在一個相當長的時間內,GDP增長比現在放緩許多。」        

中國銀行可能觸發全球衰退

《電訊報》報導說,除了造成中國經濟衰退,影子銀行不斷增長的問題還可能蔓延到國際,造成一個更廣泛的金融危機。朱夏蓮說快速的外匯借貸擴張意味著中國金融系統的一個危機正在變成國際銀行一個更大的風險。她說:「與其他新興市場相比,中國金融局勢迄今穩定的一個原因是,它對外國資金的依賴非常非常少。」 「隨著這個情況改變,外國投資者態度的波動對中國金融業的影響也隨之增加。」

上證A股正進入最後守1933,一旦破了,其他風暴是否跟著來? 若中國大陸用滬港通開放海外及香港民眾投資大陸股市,該計畫期待更多資金來帶動大陸股市,好讓大陸股市許多高檔套牢資金能出脫等待美元升息時轉成美元資產?因此,需注意上證未來未來6個月內是否突破3413,若突破3413 仍要注意中國大陸相關產業之成長率如智惠型手機、進出口成長率、BDI來確認中國大陸GDP成長率之真實性,也就是中國金融風暴將延後

她表示,在西方金融危機之後,影子銀行幫助驅動中國信貸擴張。但是,越來越大的擔憂是,中國人的外國借款增長,特別是美元借款,在製造一個比2008年金融危機更大的風險積累。由國際清算銀行十月份發佈的數字顯示,截至2013年3月,中國的外匯貸款以及中國公司的跨境借款,已經達到8,800億美元,比2009年上升2,700億美元。

分析師說,這個數字現在可能超過1萬億美元,並將繼續增長。隨著美元升值,中國金融系統出現危險弱點的可能性也隨之增加。「無疑,外匯借款在增加,並且在去年下半年開始快速增長,並且它只會繼續。目前來說,跟金融系統龐大的規模相比它只是一小部份,但是來自海外的資金數量在不斷增加。」「你看看國際清算銀行和香港銀行涉入中國業務的數量……你將看到一些外國機構涉入中國業務的規模很大。」瑞銀高級獨立經濟學家喬治•麥格納斯(George Magnus)說,中國銀行系統類似於80年代金融崩潰之前的日本

第一張骨牌將倒 中國金融系統到全面崩潰邊緣
China total debt is over 200% of GDP?

中國金融危機已實質性爆發,中共央行不斷釋放流動性也難以抑制錢荒的狀態,實際上這是中共以濫發貨幣營造的金融騙局。中國的金融問題是系統性的,某個方面的風險爆發都會成為第一張多米諾骨牌,一旦倒下將導致全面的崩潰。

中共央行猛放水也枉然

在2013年APEC工商領導人中國論壇上,中共國務院參事夏斌表示,當前的中國已經存在事實上的金融危機現象。有些中共地方政府早就資不抵債,是增加了貸款在維持著。所以現在只是危機沒有引爆,壞賬沒有暴露,是在靠多發貨幣在掩蓋。

中國現有的M2(廣義貨幣)供應量在2013年末已超過110萬億元,看似如此多的貨幣卻在大陸金融系統「錢荒」對比下,顯示出尷尬的處境,一邊是用天量來形容的貨幣投放,一邊銀行業高喊著的「錢荒」,拆借利率飆升不斷向各領域傳導,成為現下大陸金融系統真實的寫照。

上證A股1933 最後防線一旦破了,其他風暴是否跟著來時,香港將遭到最大傷害

三十年來,中共政府壟斷一切資源,掩蓋種種社會矛盾,不斷滾動債務、放大金融風險。依靠外來投資和全民財富,試圖把中國經濟增長當作一部永動機,依賴高速發展延緩危機爆發,實際上是以濫發貨幣營造的一場驚天的金融騙局,一直將中國經濟引向全面崩潰的邊緣。

中國債務危機極可能將在2015來臨
China Debt crisis will come, no question on this

近日的戲劇性事件是對中國不可持續又大規模的金融體系不平衡響起了清晰警號。“我想人們不真正明白的,是(危機)程度已經不止於流動性危機,而是債務危機,因此這不是可以消失的。”北京經濟學者楊思安(Anne Stevenson-Yang)指出:“他們的現況是,他們整個經濟體是以債務運行的。”

即使中國銀行體系及經濟很大部分是國有的,而且國家由獨裁者運作,令其有自己的獨特性質,但這不會容許中國違反經濟的地心吸力原則。正如《社會主義者》雜誌曾經警告,在目前累積的債務規模下,特別是自從2008年中央政府的4萬億人民幣刺激方案後,中國金融危機只是時間問題。惠譽國際評級公司最近的報告指,相比起隨著刺激方案而來的“現代世界歷史上前所未有的”信貸臌脹,4萬億本身只是冰山一角。

惠譽的報告指,直至2012年末,中國各銀行及影子金融機構的未償還債務由2008年GDP的125%,上升至GDP的200%。《中國證券報》發佈了更高的數字,指金融體系的總信貸高達GDP的221%。從2008-12年,整體信貸從$9萬億美元上升至$23萬億美元。“他們用五年複製了整個美國商業銀行體系。”惠譽的北京高級董事朱夏蓮(Charlene Chu)指。

從政府較早前試圖猛烈煞車而起不到作用,可見中央當局失去對信貸膨脹的控制。單單2013年的第一季,中國放發了7.5萬億人民幣的新貸款。正如湯姆.荷蘭(Tom Holland)在2013年6月25日《南華早報》指出:“這比起中國奧運投資暴漲的2007年整年創造的信貸更多。”注入龐大信貸變得必須,是為了避免舊債變壞,觸發公司破產浪潮及負責累累的地方政府違約。根據法國興業銀行的研究所指,中國公司今年的總利息償還將會達至1萬億美元,多過任何其他國家。
China shadow bank issue

工業領域由於大規模產能過剩而減低了利潤,導致很多新信貸都被用來投機在房產、商品或其他新形的影子金融產品,穀起了金融泡沫。中國的房屋市場有著歷史上最大的房產泡沫,有大批房屋空置,也有“鬼城”破壞風景。

影子銀行擴大

根據摩根大通集團所指,2010-12年期間,影子銀行業的規模上升了一倍,貸款總值36萬億人民幣(GDP的69%)。影子金融體主要由“不上資產負債表”的貸款和投資產品組成,由國有銀行制造出來,逃避政府的控制並隱藏不良貸款。惠譽的朱夏蓮估許,影子銀行大約四分之三的交易都直接或間接與主流銀行有關。

引用《博彭通訊》的一份報告,從影子銀行的擴大,可見中國經濟體成為了“信貸廢品舊貸商”,每當政府政策限制從正規銀行獲得信貸時,銀行就“走後門”。最近幾個月,影子金融體的擴大加速,是大部分的新借貸造成的。

2013年首五個月,社會融資總值(經濟體總信貸的量度指標)從2012年增長52%,當中有三分之二來自影子金融業。這肯定是危機將至的信號,亦解釋了過去一星期央行的激烈行動。

大陸超美 躍最大貿易國

大陸海關總署昨(10)日公布,2013年進出口貿易總額達到4.16兆美元,扣除匯率因素後年增7.6%,低於去年預定8%的目標,但總額首度突破4兆美元。海關官員表示,大陸超越美國,位居全球最大貨物貿易國已成定局。

中新社援引海關總署新聞發言人鄭躍聲的談話表示,大陸去年對歐盟、美國雙邊貿易額分別成長2.1%及7.5%,對東協國家成長高達10.9%,東協已成為大陸對外貿易主力市場。

海關總署統計,12月進口成長8.3%,出口僅成長4.3%;路透引述交銀金融中心研究員陳鵠飛表示,歐美耶誕新年購物潮的消退是最大主因。大陸去年貿易額4.16兆美元,出口成長7.9%至2.21兆美元,進口成長7.3%至1.95兆美元,貿易順差(出超)擴大12.8%達到2,597.5億美元。

第一財經日報引述資料指出,大陸在2013年前10月貨物貿易總額超過美國的3.26兆美元,比美國增加1,920億美元。鄭躍聲表示,美國11月貨物貿易成長還不到1%,「照數據推算,大陸超過美國,首次位列全球貨物貿易最大國基本成定局。」

從地區上看,歐盟、美國、東協、香港及日本依序為大陸前五大貿易夥伴。值得注意的是,大陸貿易順差是近五年新高,若順差持續增加,人民幣將會延續升值的趨勢。

大陸未完成去年所訂8%進出口貿易年成長率的目標,鄭躍聲仍樂觀看待,特別是美、歐經濟體加速回暖,將改善出口環境;他預計,國際市場大宗商品價格仍位於低位,有利本土企業降低成本、擴大進口力道。

海關總署去年12月對1,800家外貿企業進行網路調查,反映匯率成本增加的企業趨多,比11月增加0.1個百分點,匯率升值已是影響企業出口意願的重要因素。

大陸城投債3500億兌付大限將至 2014日子難捱

地方債中的城投債目前總餘額約為3萬億,在2014年進入城投債兌付高峰,接近3500億元的城投債將到期,以今年3、4月份到期量最高。部份地方政府已是債台高築仍在發行新債,新年伊始,城投債發行利率創新高。

城投債總量數據存爭議
2014 將有2.5萬億人民幣債要到期

所謂城投債,又稱「准市政債」,是地方政府投融資平台(一般是隸屬於地方政府的城市建設投資公司)作為發行主體公開發行的企業債券,其主業多為地方基礎設施建設。雖名為企業債券或者公司債券,但無論從承銷商到投資者,參與債券發行環節的人,都將其視為是當地政府發債。中共審計署去年年底發佈的中共政府性債務審計結果顯示,地方債總額17.8萬億,相比2010的10.7萬億,不到3年增70%。事實上,儘管此次摸底相比2011年的地方政府債務摸底要細緻得多,但未單列城投債數據。

根據WIND數據匯總各地城投債債務餘額數據可以得出,城投債債務總額達到3.3萬億。但鑒於口徑、界定標準不一,目前對於城投債數據存在爭議。民族證券宏觀策略分析師陳偉認為,目前城投債的總餘額最少也有2.7萬億。按照此前中共銀監會、發改委等部門的要求,一些城投公司完成項目清理後已經退出融資平台,投資一些產業相關項目,儘管公司名字上可能仍帶「城投」字樣,但與地方政府相關的債務已無從考量。
大陸 PMI 連二月萎縮

兌付洪峰出現 三、四月份城投債到期最多

2014年,城投債將迎來兌付高峰。據交通銀行金融市場部數據顯示,2012、2013年城投債規模迅速擴張,2014年將迎來接近3500億元的兌付高峰,尤其以今年3、4月份到期量最高。

今年1月份,有9只城投債到期,涉及項目均為基建類,其中4只是與公路和鐵路相關的運輸工程,2只涉及水務、電力等公共事業,另有3只為資本貨物的工業項目。其中最近一筆到期城投債為09京投MTN1,將於1月14日到期,發行總額20億,票面利率3.9%。今年城投債兌付高峰,無疑將考驗地方政府的償債能力。此外,2013年12月16日,中債資信將武漢城投主體評級由AA降至AA-後,引起了各界對城投債償債能力的擔憂

地方政府債台高築仍發債 利率創新高

與此同時,部份城市已是債台高築。南京銀行的研究報告顯示,西寧與蘭州兩地,去年城投債餘額規模與財政收入比已超過300%,伊春、南寧、湖州、南京四市上述比例均超過100%,鎮江、合肥也超過90%。就總量數據來看,江蘇城投類國有企業未到期債券餘額超過4000億元,遠高於其他省份,其中321億元將於2014年內到期。

地方政府主要還款來源之一是土地出讓經營收益,通俗講,即靠賣地還錢。平台類企業從銀行獲取的貸款,也往往以土地作為擔保抵押。但依靠土地財政的地方政府,賣地還錢的模式已經難以為繼,因此債務償還存在變數。2013年的最後一天,中共發改委發出消息稱允許地方融資平台以舉借新債的方式償還舊債,這為地方政府又開了一個後門,使地方政府看到了希望,並使用高利率繼續發債。

繼去年12月發行13磁湖高新債01票面利率至8.70%後,2014年剛開年,1月初發行的14懷化債01,票面利率8.99%,創下了公募城投債票面利率的歷史新高,其收益率都已經逼近信託。

2014年中國到期企業債違約風險大幅降低

北京1月3日電 中信證券3日發佈報告稱,日前中國國家發展和改革委員會(發改委)發佈公告《規範發展債券市場,服務經濟社會發展大局》,公告提出的相關措施將大幅降低2014年到期債務的違約風險。

報告指出,根據審計署日前公佈的政府債務的審計結果,截至2013年6月底的1.85萬億元(人民幣,下同)全口徑地方債券中,除了財政直接發行的地方政府債券6600億元外,8828億元企業債成為最大的債券融資來源。發改委在此時出臺相關政策,直接針對到期企業債給予明確說明,將有助於穩定市場預期和防範金融風險。
上證A 重量級支稱是 2410, 2320

報告表示,2014年是中國企業債券償債高峰,預計將有1000億元城投債券到期兌付。發改委提出一方面“要求投融資平臺公司按照約定落實償債資金來源,切實防範投融資平臺公司違約風險、財政風險和金融風險”,另一方面通過“以低成本債務置換高成本債務,延長還款期限,降低融資成本”和“發行適度規模的新債”的方式,確保不出現債務違約和“半拉子”工程,前述措施將大幅降低2014年到期債務的違約風險,同時將穩定預期,降低了全社會金融風險。

由於中國物資運輸對 BDI 指數有相當貢獻,BDI可了解復甦情況(自動更新)
報告指出,在強調控制風險和區分債務情況實行差別化管理的基礎上,發改委在債券發行方面也推行了一些新的創新,做到有保有壓,將有利於托底經濟並促進結構調整。主要包括,針對中小企業,進一步推動“中小企業集合債、小微企業增信集合債”;對於投資大運營週期長的基建項目,推廣“可續期債券”;針對棚戶區等項目,擴大“債貸組合”試點,通過銀行統一融資規劃來控制風險並保證資金到位;針對產能過剩項目,發展收購兼併債券來提供資金支援。其中,可續期債券2013年均有所試點但規模較小,未來2014年將有望擴大規模。

報告認為,在債券市場穩定的大背景下,融資渠道的暢通將促使2014年的基建投資增速得到保障。據悉,從2013年10月開始,由國家發改委審批的企業債將大多下放地方發改委審批,這將有助於審批速度的提升和地方債務的差別化管理。預期新的審批制度和創新型債券將有望自2014年二季度之後逐步產生影響,從而對2014年尤其是下半年基建投資起到明顯的支撐效果。

分析
  • 2013 當中國現有的M2(廣義貨幣)供應量已超過110萬億元 ( China M2 is much over GDP ),銀行業還一直高喊著的「錢荒」,拆借利率飆升不斷下,對海外發行之債卷金額創新高,意味中國金融危機來臨前兆。
  • 當中國金融風暴突然發生時,全球供應鏈會瞬間出現大幅庫存無法消化,所有原物料價格頓時崩盤,許多全球供應鏈大廠極可能面臨危機,全球經濟成長必然衰退;
  • 當中國金融風暴突然發生時,上證A股最後防線 1933 破了,地方債倒避風暴跟著來時,香港經濟、股市將遭到最大傷害,香港親中政權是否也倒台?
  • 台灣經濟、股市也將遭到大幅傷害,國民黨政權也必然因沒有做好經濟倒台,許多投資中國債卷也面臨考驗,大幅虧損是難免;
  • 2005 ~ 2013 中國大幅擴張勢力至尚比亞、秘魯、緬甸、 非洲、莫三比來取得資源,問題是2015 ~ 2016 若中國金融風暴突然發生後,全球資源出現大幅庫存無法消化的窘境,嚴重程度可能超過雷曼倒閉時
  • 大陸2013年進出口貿易總額達到4.16兆美元超越美國,位居全球最大貨物貿易國已成定局,問題是大陸 M2 (廣義貨幣)供應量已超過 GDP 太多,經濟成長必須痛苦的減速,也就是利率及人民幣須拉高讓經濟再走緩,否則加速只會讓金融風暴早日發生。
  • 觀察指標是上海上證A股、FXI、中國到期債償還能力、大陸房市、中國各銀行及影子金融機構的未償還債務,也可以含BDI指數來觀察,該避開大幅依賴大陸市場、庫存很高、借貸比率很重的公司,也要注意大陸及香港房地主力觀察包括香港李嘉誠的動作;若上海上證A股量支撐在第三季末之前都能守住,表示中國到期債轉為長債成功,風險移至明年,那今年全球仍是有許多機會,只是新興市場與美股不同。
  • 投資大陸台灣房地產,僅能集中於捷運地鐵、人潮流量區域,其他應該避開。