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| Figure 10. Mobile Video Will Generate Over 69 Percent of Mobile Data Traffic by 2018 |
「行動(Mobile)」一詞過去曾經只涵蓋手機、平板電腦，現在則已泛指各式各樣的穿戴裝置，例如智慧手錶、健康狀態追蹤器、谷歌眼鏡(Google Glass)等等。思科( Cisco System )認為，這些科技新品將帶動資料傳輸需求，預期到了2018年，全球行動資料傳輸量將暴增至 190 exabytes (1 exabyte等於十億 gigabytes)。
CNBC、Re/code報導，思科5日在年度預測報告中指出，2018年190 exabytes 的行動資料傳輸量等於較 2013年的傳輸量跳增11倍，也相當於42兆份影像、或是4兆片影片。這也是2000年固網、行動網路總傳輸量的190倍。
在行動資料用量快速增加的環境下，使用這些資料的行動裝置數量也將在2018年由2013年的70億台跳升至100億台。根據聯合國統計，2018年全球人口僅76億人，意味著屆時行動裝置的數量會是全球總人口的1.4倍。
行動資料傳輸量有如此爆炸性的成長，主要得益於穿戴科技的普及，思科把智慧手錶、Google Glass等穿戴裝置統一歸類至「機器對機器的連結」類別(大多屬於物聯網領域)，這個分類在2013年僅佔全球行動資料傳輸量的1%，預料到了2018年會增加至6%。
另外，思科也預估，2018年全球有在使用的穿戴裝置數量將由2013年的不到2,200萬台躍升至接近1.7億台。
Cisco Visual Networking Index: Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast Update, 2013–2018
The Mobile Network Through 2018
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| Figure 1. Cisco Forecasts 15.9 Exabytes per Month of Mobile Data Traffic by 2018 |
Mobile data traffic will reach the following milestones within the next five years.
- Monthly global mobile data traffic will surpass 15 exabytes by 2018.
- The number of mobile-connected devices will exceed the world's population by 2014.
- The average mobile connection speed will surpass 2 Mbps by 2016.
- Due to increased usage on smartphones, smartphones will reach 66 percent of mobile data traffic by 2018.
- Monthly mobile tablet traffic will surpass 2.5 exabyte per month by 2018.
- Tablets will exceed 15 percent of global mobile data traffic by 2016.
- 4G traffic will be more than half of the total mobile traffic by 2018.
- There will be more traffic offloaded from cellular networks (on to Wi-Fi) than remain on cellular networks by 2018.
Global mobile data traffic will increase nearly 11-fold between 2013 and 2018.
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| Figure 2. Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast by Region 全球行動資料傳輸量 ( 區域 ) |
- Mobile data traffic will grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 61 percent from 2013 to 2018, reaching 15.9 exabytes per month by 2018.
- By the end of 2014, the number of mobile-connected devices will exceed the number of people on earth, and by 2018 there will be nearly 1.4 mobile devices per capita. There will be over 10 billion mobile-connected devices by 2018, including machine-to-machine (M2M) modules-exceeding the world's population at that time (7.6 billion).
- Mobile network connection speeds will increase two-fold by 2018. The average mobile network connection speed (1,387 Kbps in 2013) will exceed 2.5 megabits per second (Mbps) by 2018.
- By 2018, 4G will be 15 percent of connections, but 51 percent of total traffic. By 2018, a 4G connection will generate 6 times more traffic on average than a non-4G connection.
- By 2018, over half of all devices connected to the mobile network will be "smart" devices. Globally, 54 percent of mobile devices will be smart devices by 2018, up from 21 percent in 2013. The vast majority of mobile data traffic (96 percent) will originate from these smart devices by 2018, up from 88 percent in 2013.
- By 2018, 48 percent of all global mobile devices could potentially be capable of connecting to an IPv6 mobile network. Over 4.9 billion devices will be IPv6-capable by 2018.
- Over two-thirds of the world's mobile data traffic will be video by 2018. Mobile video will increase 14-fold between 2013 and 2018, accounting for 69 percent of total mobile data traffic by the end of the forecast period.
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| Figure 3. Global Mobile Devices and Connections Growth |
Overall mobile data traffic is expected to grow to 15.9 exabytes per month by 2018, nearly an 11-fold increase over 2013. Mobile data traffic will grow at a CAGR of 61 percent from 2013 to 2018 (Figure 1).
The Asia Pacific and North America regions will account for almost two-thirds of global mobile traffic by 2018, as shown in Figure 2. Middle East and Africa will experience the highest CAGR of 70 percent, increasing 14-fold over the forecast period. Central and Eastern Europe will have the second highest CAGR of 68 percent, increasing 13-fold over the forecast period. The emerging market regions of Asia Pacific and Latin America will have CAGRs of 67 percent and 66 percent respectively.
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| Figure 6. Global Mobile Devices and Connections by 2G, 3G, and 4G |
- Trend 1: Transitioning to Smarter Mobile Devices ( 全球轉換到智能行動裝置 )
- The increasing number of wireless devices that are accessing mobile networks worldwide is one of the primary contributors to global mobile traffic growth. Each year several new devices in different form factors and increased capabilities and intelligence are being introduced in the market. Over half a billion (526 million) mobile devices and connections were added in 2013. Global mobile devices and connections grew, in 2013, to 7 billion, up from 6.5 billion in 2012. Globally, mobile devices and connections will grow to 10.2 billion by 2018 at a CAGR of 8 percent (Figure 3). By 2018, there will be 8.2 billion handheld or personal mobile-ready devices and 2 billion machine-to-machine connections (e.g., GPS systems in cars, asset tracking systems in shipping and manufacturing sectors, or medical applications making patient records and health status more readily available, et al). Regionally, North America and Western Europe are going to have the fastest growth in mobile devices and connections with 12 percent and 10 percent CAGR from 2013 to 2018 respectively.
- The growth in 4G, with its higher bandwidth, lower latency, and increased security, will help regions bridge the gap between their mobile and fixed network performance. ( 4G 成主流 ) This will lead to even higher adoption of mobile technologies by end users, making access to any content on any device from anywhere more of a reality.(Figure 6)
- Trend 2: Measuring Internet of Everything Adoption-Emerging Wearable Devices ( 新興的穿戴設備透過物聯網連結一切 )
Figure 7. Global Machine-to-Machine Growth and
Migration from 2G to 3G and 4G - The phenomenal growth in smarter end-user devices and M2M connections is a clear indicator of the growth of the Internet of everything (IoE), which is bringing together people, processes, data, and things to make networked connections more relevant and valuable. In this section, we will focus on the continued growth of M2M connections and the emerging trend of wearable devices. Both M2M and wearable devices are making computing and connectivity very pervasive in our day-to-day lives.
- M2M connections-such as home and office security and automation, smart metering and utilities, maintenance, building automation, automotive, healthcare and consumer electronics, and more-are being used across a broad spectrum of industries, as well as in the consumer segment. As real-time information monitoring helps companies deploy new video-based security systems, while also helping hospitals and healthcare professionals remotely monitor the progress of their patients, bandwidth-intensive M2M connections are becoming more prevalent. Globally, M2M connections will grow from 341 million in 2013 to over 2 billion by 2018, a 43 percent CAGR. M2M capabilities similar to end-user mobile devices are migrating from 2G to 3G and 4G technologies. In 2013, 71 percent of global mobile M2M connections were connected using 2G connectivity, while 28 percent used 3G, and less than 0.5 percent used 4G. By 2018, only 35 percent of M2M modules will have 2G connectivity; 51 percent will have 3G connectivity; and 14 percent will have 4G connectivity (Figure 7).
Figure 8. Global Connected Wearable Devices
全球智能穿載裝置成長精人 - An important factor contributing to the growing adoption of IoE is the emergence of wearable devices, a category with high growth potential. Wearable devices, as the name suggests, are devices that can be worn on a person, which have the capability to connect and communicate to the network either directly through embedded cellular connectivity or through another device (primarily a smartphone) using Wi-Fi, Bluetooth or another technology. These devices come in various shapes and forms, ranging from smart watches, smart glasses, heads-up displays (HUD), health and fitness trackers, health monitors, wearable scanners and navigation devices, smart clothing, and so forth. The growth in these devices has been fuelled by enhancements in technology that have supported compression of computing and other electronics (making the devices light enough to be worn). These advances are being combined with fashion to match personal styles, especially in the consumer electronics segment, along with network improvements and the growth of applications, such as location-based services and augmented reality. While there have been vast technological improvements to make wearables possible as a significant device category, the embedded cellular connectivity still has some barriers, such as technology, regulatory, and health concerns, to overcome before it becomes widely available and adopted. (Figure 8)
- Trend 3: Analyzing Mobile Applications-Video Dominance ( 移動視頻應用成主流 )
- Because mobile video content has much higher bit rates than other mobile content types, mobile video will generate much of the mobile traffic growth through 2018. Mobile video will grow at a CAGR of 69 percent between 2013 and 2018, the highest growth rate of any mobile application category that we forecast, other than machine-to-machine traffic. Of the 15.9 exabytes per month crossing the mobile network by 2018, 11 exabytes will be due to video (Figure 10). Mobile video represented more than half of global mobile data traffic beginning in 2012, indicating that it is having an immediate impact on traffic today, not just in the future. (Figure 10)
- Trend 4: Profiling Bandwidth Consumption by Device ( 由設備的性能分析頻寬消耗 )
- The proliferation of high-end handsets, tablets, and laptops on mobile networks is a major traffic generator, because these devices offer the consumer content and applications not supported by previous generations of mobile devices. As shown in Figure 12, a single smartphone can generate as much traffic as 49 basic-feature phones; a tablet as much traffic as 127 basic-feature phones; and a single laptop can generate as much traffic as 227 basic-feature phones. (Figure 12)
- Trend 5: Assessing Mobile Traffic/Offload by Access Type (2G, 3G, and 4G) ( 評估移動流量/卸載通過行動網路類型（2G，3G和4G）)
Figure 13. 51 Percent of Total Mobile
Data Traffic Will Be 4G by 2018 - Impact of 4G: While 3G and 3.5G account for the majority (60 percent) of mobile data traffic today, 4G will grow to represent over half of all mobile data traffic by 2018, despite a connection share of only 15 percent (Figure 13). (Figure 13)
- Currently, a 4G connection generates nearly 15 times more traffic than a non-4G connection. There are two reasons for this. The first is that many 4G connections today are for high-end devices, which have a higher average usage. The second is that higher speeds encourage the adoption and usage of high-bandwidth applications, such that a smartphone on a 4G network is likely to generate 50 percent more traffic than the same model smartphone on a 3G or 3.5G network. As smartphones come to represent a larger share of 4G connections, the gap between the average traffic of 4G devices and non-4G devices will narrow, but by 2018 a 4G connection will still generate 6 times more traffic than a non-4G connection.
- Trend 6: Comparing Mobile Network Speeds ( 移動網絡速度依網路世代而不同 )
Figure 17. Mobile Speeds by Technology 2G vs. 3G vs. 4G - Globally, the average mobile network connection speed in 2013 was 1,387 Kbps. The average speed will grow at a compound annual growth rate of 13 percent, and will exceed 2.5 Mbps by 2018. Smartphone speeds, generally third-generation (3G) and higher, are currently almost three times higher than the overall average. Smartphone speeds will nearly double by 2018, reaching 7 Mbps.
- There is anecdotal evidence to support the idea that usage increases when speed increases, although there is often a delay between the increase in speed and the increased usage, which can range from a few months to several years. The Cisco VNI Forecast relates application bit rates to the average speeds in each country. Many of the trends in the resulting traffic forecast can be seen in the speed forecast, such as the high growth rates for developing countries and regions relative to more developed areas.
- Trend 7: Reviewing Tiered Pricing-Managing Top Mobile Users ( 分級定價管理熱門手機用戶 )
Figure 22. All Top Tiers Increase in Absolute
Usage (MB per Month) from 2011 to 2013 - An increasing number of service providers worldwide are moving from unlimited data plans to tiered mobile data packages. To make an initial estimate of the impact of tiered pricing on traffic growth, we repeated a case study based on the data of two Tier 1 global service providers from mature mobile markets. The study tracks data usage from the timeframe of the introduction of tiered pricing three years ago. The findings in this study are based on Cisco's analysis of data provided by a third-party data analysis firm. This firm maintains a panel of volunteer participants who have given the company access to their mobile service bills, including KB of data usage. The data in this study reflects usage associated with over 38,889 devices and spans 12 months (October 2012 through September 2013) and also refers to the study from the previous update for longer term trends. The overall study spans three years. Cisco's analysis of the data consists of categorizing the pricing plans, operating systems, devices, and users; incorporating additional third-party information on device characteristics; and performing exploratory and statistical data analysis. While the results of the study represent actual data from Tier 1 mobile data operators, global forecasts that include emerging markets, and Tier 2 providers may lead to lower estimates.
Figure 23. 3 Percent of Users Consume 5 GB per
Month and 24 Percent Consume over 2 GB per Month - Over the period of the nearly 3-year study, the percentage of tiered plans compared to all data plans increased from 4 percent to 55 percent, while unlimited plans dropped from 81 percent to 45 percent. This has not, however, constrained usage patterns. From 2012 to 2013, average usage per device on a tiered plan grew from 922 MB per month to 1,081 MB per month, while usage per device of unlimited plans grew at from a higher base of 1,261 MB per month to 1,890 MB per month.
- Trend 8: Adopting IPv6-Beyond an Emerging Protocol ( 大幅採用 IPv6 的一個新興通訊規範 )
Figure 27. Global IPv6-Capable Smartphones
and Tablets Reach 3.5 Billion by 2018 - The transition to IPv6 is well underway, which helps connect and manage the proliferation of newer-generation devices that are contributing to mobile network usage and data traffic growth. Continuing the Cisco VNI focus on IPv6, the Cisco VNI 2013-2018 Mobile Data Traffic Forecast provides an update on IPv6-capable mobile devices and connections and the potential for IPv6 mobile data traffic.
- Focusing on the high-growth mobile-device segments of smartphones and tablets, the forecast projects that globally 79 percent of smartphones and tablets (3.5 billion) will be IPv6 capable by 2018 (up from 46 percent or 837 million smartphones and tablets in 2013). This estimation is based on OS support of IPv6 (primarily Android and iOS) and the accelerated move to higher-speed mobile networks (3.5G or higher) capable of enabling IPv6. (This forecast is intended as a projection of the number of IPv6-capable mobile devices, not mobile devices with an IPv6 connection actively configured by the ISP.)
- Trend 9: Defining Mobile "Prime Time"-Peak vs. Average Usage ( 定義移動“黃金時間”峰值與平均使用 )
Figure 30. Mobile Busy Hour Is 66% Higher
Than Average Hour in 2013, 83% by 2018 - Mobile video applications have a "prime time" in that they are predominantly used during certain times of day. Web and general data usage tends to occur throughout the day, but video consumption is highest in the evening. Video therefore has a higher peak-to-average ratio than web and data. Live video and video communications have higher peak-to-average ratios than video-on-demand. As the mobile network application mix shifts towards video, and as the video mix increasingly includes live video and video communication, the overall mobile data peak-to-average ratio increases. Busy hour mobile traffic is growing at a slightly higher pace than average hour traffic, and by 2018 mobile busy hour traffic will be 83 percent higher than average hour traffic by 2018, compared to 66 percent in 2013 (Figure 30).
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| Figure 12. High-End Devices Significantly Multiply Traffic |
- 至 2018 超過20億新興的穿戴設備透過物聯網連結一切。
- 行動裝置數量也將在 2018 年由 2013年的 70億台跳升至 100億台。
- 無線行動裝置將連結一切包括汽車、玩具、家電、穿戴衣物，結合雲端智能也將成長至可預測、可詢問，應用在各領域上；
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