2013年8月19日 星期一

PC買氣比預期冷，PC 是否產生惡性質變，台灣 PC 廠要小心 ( PC market is freeze than expected cold, If PC happen with a vicious qualitative change, Taiwan PC industrial need to be careful )

PC買氣冷，戴爾Q2獲利暴跌72％

個人電腦（PC）市場持續低迷不振，戴爾上季獲利大跌72%。
　戴爾業績報告如此慘澹，可能有利於創辦人暨執行長麥克．戴爾所堅持的提案－以每股13.75美元加上13美分股利，對戴爾而言是合乎公平的收購價格。

　戴爾第二財季營收為145億美元，與去年同期持平，且優於分析師預測均值142億美元。淨利年減逾70%，至2.04億美元，折合每股12美分；排除特定項目，每股盈餘為25美分，略高於市場預測均值24美分。

　毛利率較上一季下滑1個百分點，至19.6%。終端用戶電腦部門營收年減5%，至91億美元；企業解決方案、服務與軟體事業營收年增9%，至58億美元。

　分析師表示，當戴爾重視銷售量甚於獲利能力，利潤會被壓縮到這個程度並不令人意外。

　PC銷售仍占戴爾整體營收的一半，攸關公司的未來發展。市場研究公司CLSA預估，今年全球PC銷售量估將減少7%，明年再減4.5%。

Tablets Killing Desktops Faster Than Ever

The contraction of the PC market continues faster than ever, eaten by the rapid growth of the tablet market, which is expected to outsell laptop and notebook devices for the first time this year and all PCs by 2015. But portable PCs may still be the saving grace for PC sales in the years ahead.

If there is anything new about the news coming out from IDC's Quarterly PC Tracker, it's the increase of the rate of the PC's decline. IDC had initially predicted a decline of "1.3% in 2013 followed by a gradual increase in volume." Now the analyst firm is predicting a sharper decline of 7.8% in 2013 and 1.2% down in 2014.

2011 may have been the "peak PC" year, when 363 million units shipped. In 2012, 349 million units shipped, with only 321.9 units predicted for the 2013 calendar year. The market is expected to recover a little - by 2017, IDC estimates that 333 million will ship.

These numbers include shipments on both desktop and portable PCs, which is what IDC labels notebook and laptop PCs. That 2017 recovery will have no help from desktop PC sales: shipments are expected to drop from 148 million in 2012 to a predicted 134 million in 2013 and 124 million in 2017: a 16.5% contraction over five years.

Any recovery in the market will fall squarely within the portable PC sector: shipments were 201 million in 2012, and will be down to 187 million this year, but possibly up to 210 million in 2017, which is a net 4.3% uptick for the portable sector.

But where the real growth in portable devices is in the tablet sector. "T]ablet shipments are expected to grow 58.7% year-over-year in 2013 reaching 229.3 million units, up from 144.5 million units last year," [according to the press release, "IDC now predicts tablet shipments will exceed those of portable PCs this year.

"In addition, IDC expects tablet shipments to outpace the entire PC market (portables and desktops combined) by 2015," the company reported.

Tablets are not only going to be more prolific, they are going to be smaller. The IDC data is already seeing a sharp decrease in sales of tablets in the 8"-11" size range, and a healthy increase in tablets with less than 8 inches of screen size. As you can see in the table below, by 2017, 57% of tablets will be in that sub-8" range.

Worldwide Tablet Market Share by Screen Size Band, 2011 - 2017

Screen Size   2011   2013   2017
         8"           27%   55%   57%
   8" – 11"         73%   43%   37%
  11"+                0%      2%     6%
  Total            100%   100%   100%

The shrinking of tablet size means that a lot less productivity will be getting done on these devices, as smaller tablets are very much consumption devices. This may explain the predicted increase of notebook sales: people will still want portability, but they also will need a platform on which to actually work.

As for the desktop PC, there looks to be no bright future in sight for the once-mighty platform. That which does not move, it seems, dies.

Gartner Says Worldwide PC, Tablet and Mobile Phone Shipments to Grow 5.9 Percent in 2013 as Anytime-Anywhere-Computing Drives Buyer Behavior

Traditional PC Shipments to Decline 10.6 Percent in 2013, While Tablet Shipments Increase 67.9 Percent

Worldwide devices (the combined shipments of PCs, tablets and mobile phones) are projected to reach 2.35 billion units in 2013, a 5.9 percent increase from 2012, according to Gartner, Inc. The market is being driven by sales in tablets, smartphones, and to a lesser extent, ultramobiles, as PC shipments are on the decline.

Worldwide traditional PC (desk-based and notebook) shipments are forecast to total 305 million units in 2013, a 10.6 percent decline from 2012 , while the PC market including ultramobiles is forecast to decline 7.3 percent in 2013 (see Table 1). Tablet shipments are expected to grow 67.9 percent, with shipments reaching 202 million units, while the mobile phone market will grow 4.3 percent, with volume of more than 1.8 billion units.

The sharp decline in PC sales recorded in the first quarter was the result in a change in preferences in consumers’ wants and needs, but also an adjustment in the channel to make room for new products hitting the market in the second half of 2013.

“Consumers want anytime-anywhere computing that allows them to consume and create content with ease, but also share and access that content from a different portfolio of products. Mobility is paramount in both mature and emerging markets,” said Carolina Milanesi, research vice president at Gartner.

Demand for ultramobiles (which includes Chromebooks, thin and light clamshell designs, and slate and hybrid devices running Windows 8) will come from upgrades of both notebooks and premium tablets, such as the Apple iPad or Galaxy Tab10.1. Analysts said ultramobile devices are gaining in attractiveness and drawing demand away from other devices. This will be even more evident in the fourth quarter of 2013 when the combination of new design based on Intel processors Bay Trail and Haswell running on Windows 8.1 will hit the market. Although these devices will only marginally help overall sales volumes initially, they are expected to help vendors increase average selling prices (ASPs) and margins.

The tablet and smartphone markets are facing some challenges as these devices gain longer life cycles. There has also been a shift as many consumers go from premium tablets to basic tablets. The share of basic tablets is expected to increase faster than anticipated, as sales of the iPad Mini already represented 60 percent of overall iOS tablet sales in the first quarter of 2013.

“The increased availability of lower priced basic tablets, plus the value add shifting to software rather than hardware will result in the lifetimes of premium tablets extending as they remain active in the household for longer. We will also see consumer preferences split between basic tablets and ultramobile devices,” said Ranjit Atwal, research director at Gartner. “With mobile phones, volume expectations for 2013 have been brought down as the life cycles lengthen as consumers wait for new models and lower prices to hit the market in the Fall and holiday season. The challenge in the smartphone market is also that, as penetration moves more and more to the mass market, price points are lowering and in most cases so do margins.”

“Although the numbers seem to paint a clear picture of who the winner will be when it comes to operating systems (OS) in the device market (see Table 2), the reality is that today ecosystem owners are challenged in having the same relevance in all segments,” said Ms. Milanesi. “Apple is currently the more homogeneous presence across all device segments, while 90 percent of Android sales are currently in the mobile phone market and 85 percent of Microsoft sales are in the PC market.”


Additionally, with enterprises’ growing acceptance of bring your own device (BYOD), there is an increase in consumer-owned devices in the computing world. Gartner forecasts that computing devices bought by consumers will grow from 65 percent in 2013 to 72 percent in 2017. This signifies the growing importance of designing for the consumer inside the enterprise.

有幾種情況，PC 產業會產生惡性質變：

  • Intel CPU 利潤大幅降低，Intel 打算關掉 PC 及 NB 之 CPU部門；
  • Microsoft OS 在個人電腦獲利虧損，Microsoft 不再提供個人電腦 Window 的服務；
  • 台廠應變方式：
    • 台廠應該大力去做 Phablet 產品，可增加更多屬於自已的創意，讓式微的 NB 產品找到一些新活水的成長機會；
    • 其實進入 Phablet 產品系列，台廠可表現空間是很大的，抓住這智能混合裝置趨勢是有機會發揮創意的；
    • 建立 Phablet 關鍵零組件；
参考：

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2013年8月18日 星期日

2013 九月QE預期開始緊縮，反而加速中國、日本賣出美國公債，五大指標成重點 ( QE is expected to shrink in September 2013 austerity, Its accelerate China, Japan to sell U.S. Treasury, five indicators need to watch )

China, Japan lead record outflow from Treasuries in June ( 6月份中國，日本從美國國債流出破紀錄創新高 )
Fed QE shrink seems a big worry to world wide economic?

(Reuters) - China and Japan led an exodus from U.S. Treasuries in June after the first signals the U.S. central bank was preparing to wind back its stimulus, with data showing they accounted for almost all of a record $40.8 billion of net foreign selling of Treasuries. ( [路透社] - 六月中國和日本美國國債流出，美國的中央銀行，準備回應刺激的第一信號，數據顯示，他們幾乎賣出創紀錄 408億美元國債。)

The sales were part of $66.9 billion of net sales by foreigners of long-term U.S. securities in June, a fifth straight month of outflows and the largest since August 2007, U.S. Treasury Department data showed on Thursday.
US M1 is still growing

China, the largest foreign creditor, reduced its Treasury holdings to $1.2758 trillion, and Japan trimmed its holdings for a third straight month to $1.0834 trillion. Combined, they accounted for about $40 billion in net Treasury outflows.Comments from Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke on May 22 that the central bank could reduce its four-year asset buying or quantitative easing (QE) program by September fueled a sell-off in U.S. Treasuries. ( 中國最大的外國債權人，降低其國債的持有至12758億美元，，日本為連續第三個月削減其持有10834億美元。)

"China's net selling of U.S. treasury could be a reaction to the possible QE exit," said a senior economist at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences (CASS), a top government think-tank. ( ”在中國社會科學院（CASS），前政府智囊機構中國社科院高級經濟師說：“中國淨賣出是因為美國國債可能是量化寬鬆政策退出的反應 )

Speaking on condition of anonymity, he said China's currency reserves management had become much more pro-active."Holding too much U.S. debt is not wise at a time when Treasury yields rise and prices fall. On the other hand, the adjustment has been marginal considering China's massive holdings of U.S. debt, and China cannot dump U.S. debt, which could spook markets and upset the U.S. government," he said.

But Bank of Thailand Deputy Governor Pongpen Ruengvirayudh said the decision to reduce Treasury holdings was not a new one taken in light of the Fed's tapering expectations. "We have adjusted (our strategy on the U.S. Treasury in the foreign reserves) for a while," she told reporters.

BIGGEST SINCE 1977

U.S. 10-year yields jumped to a two-year high of 2.823 percent on Thursday after encouraging jobless claims data. The yields had hit a high of 2.6670 percent in June after trading in a range of 1.6140 to 2.2350 percent in May. In April, benchmark yields were trading below 2.0 percent.

"The sell-off in Treasuries and Bernanke's tapering remarks are related," said Michael Woolfolk, global market strategist at BNY Mellon in New York. "Lightning doesn't strike in the same place twice, but Bernanke repeated his comments in June and that roiled the market."

Woolfolk said the net Treasury outflow was the highest since at least 1977 when the government started compiling the data.

A Japanese policymaker however said the fears of Fed tapering weren't behind the sales. The market volatility caused by changing expectations around Fed policy might have forced some Asian central banks to intervene to defend their currencies, and in the process reduce their Treasury holdings, he said.

"I don't think Fed tapering expectations had much to do with the selling of U.S. Treasuries," the Japanese policymaker told Reuters.

June was the fifth straight month that foreign investors sold long-term U.S. securities, but the specific selling of long-term government bonds was the big turnaround as foreigners had bought $11.3 billion of Treasuries in May.

And more recent data from the Federal Reserve showed foreign central banks' holdings of U.S. securities fell $2.7 billion to $3.3 trillion in the week ended August 14.

Including short-dated assets such as bills, overseas investors sold a net $19 billion in assets in June, compared with inflows of $56.6 billion the previous month.

U.S. stocks were also out of favor. Foreigners pulled $26.841 billion out of equities in June after selling $8.62 billion in May. Foreigners also sold $5.2 billion in U.S. agency debt, after selling $10.3 billion in May.

註：只要中國、日本持續賣出美國公債，轉移至其他資產，美公債利率就會彈升，就會同時影響美國利率市場，最明顯就是美國房貸市場，看美國不動產證卷商品 ETF指標、美公債及高收債 ETF 指標就可看見危機；

若九月QE預期開始緊縮，那幾個指標值得觀察

   全球靠美國印鈔、美債來刺激經濟，當美國不再印鈔必然要收回海外美元，這時亞洲許多國家經濟必然衰退、股市必然要跌。雖美國欠全世界錢，但全世界卻是靠美國債來刺激經濟，全世界其他出超國家若不願意改變消費國家，就必然一直靠美國債來讓經濟成長。

    現在多了另一變數，當美國縮小QE時，若中國、日本持續賣出美國公債，美公債利率就會彈升，美國利率市場會受刺激、房貸車貸利率都會上升，美股就會大修正、美國不動產證卷 ETF、美國汽車股、美國公債 ETF及美股就會大修正；

我們來觀察幾個有代表性之 ETF看相關指標 ：

1. 很明顯美國不動產證卷 ETF已經破前低，這指標要仔細追蹤。

2. 美國長期公債 ETF 已經跌破 2012 低點，美國公債 ETF指標成為另一重點

3. 全球資金大逃竄，避險市場將熱 - 避險ETF指標

    美國Fed主席柏南克預告美國將結束QE，確實要真正檢驗美國景氣是否會隨QE逐漸緊縮而能成長，預估美國是可以逐漸緊縮QE，但要花三年時間。由代表債卷值利率的 TYX 、 TLT 皆以一根長紅決定大幅資金逃竄日子，當利率跳升時，美國金融業 QE 時自美國流出至新興市場低利率資金就會回美，所以，代表新興市場指標之重點市場值得追蹤；

4. 人民幣升值時，美債仍高QE持續，『維他命10國』成資金港，當QE縮減，資金港成為廢港資金流出.

    美國金融業 QE 時，大量低利率讓金融業去炒作新興市場及股市，金融業獲利驚人，當 QE 縮減時，金融業投資成本升高獲利下降，美國利率市場會受刺激、房貸車貸利率都會上升，貸款業務也可能縮減，因此汽車業也是另一重點。

5. 美國汽車產業是重要景氣觀察成為另一重點。

總之，九月 QE 預期開始緊縮，美公債利率就會彈升，美國利率市場會受刺激、房貸車貸利率都會上升，美股就會大修正，期待美國景氣指標來讓修正後之美股大反彈，中國、日本加速賣出美國公債未必是壞事，讓美國景氣真正接受檢驗；

本來是預期美聯儲縮QE 美元升值，但一旦發生中國和日本資金自美國國債流出，剛好是中國和日本資金流出，美公債利率就會彈升，美系資金就必須流回美國，因此，美元最終霸權金融武器就必須對資金流出公債之應戰，這兩大力量對抗將是 8 ~ 10 月國際大戲；

外資淨匯入 7月M1B日均創新高

中央銀行今天(26日)公布7月M1B和M2貨幣總計數。被視為觀察股市動能指標的M1B，日平均值達到新台幣12.8兆，創下新高，央行表示，主要是外資呈現淨匯入所致。對於近期外資因美國寬鬆貨幣政策減碼而從亞洲撤資，導致印度和印尼貨幣驟貶，央行認為，主要是因為當時QE實施時，外資投入東南亞的資金較多。

　　中央銀行26日公布7月貨幣總計數M1B和M2，被視為觀察股市動能指標的M1B，年增率上升為8.63%，創下2011年4月以來新高；至於被作為央行貨幣政策中間目標的M2，年增率上升為5.42%，也是近2年多來的新高。

　　央行表示，這個結果除了因為去年比較基期較低，也和外資在7月呈現淨匯入有關。央行經濟研究處副處長陳一端說：『(原音)6、7月M1B成長都比較高，和去年的基期有一點關係。因為去年6、7月可能是證所稅的問題，那時外資有出去，所以基期相對比較低。去年7月份外資出去將近28億，今年7月進來將近27.68億。』

　　對於美國聯準會(Fed)釋出減碼量化寬鬆貨幣政策，使得外資從東南亞國家大舉撤出、回流美國。央行認為，主要是之前QE開始實施時，外資大舉進駐東南亞，現在QE縮減規模，當然資金撤出也會相對比較多，才會使得東南亞國家貨幣呈現大幅貶值。至於QE縮減是否影響台灣的經濟成長率？央行認為，台灣的經濟成長率下半年想要大幅揚升，還是得靠出口表現，若先進國家像是美國、日本和歐洲的經濟能夠好轉，台灣今年GDP保2%絕對不會有問題。

亞洲資金大逃亡 台幣逆勢反升

　　中國人民銀行的外匯持有增加5.6%。今年以來，亞洲包括中國大陸、台灣、南韓、俄羅斯等國家持續增加，我國央行公布截至7月底為止的外匯存底達4,091億1,800萬美元，較6月底增加25億1,200萬美元，再創新高。

　　全球外匯準備高達11兆2千億美元，中國人行持有外匯所占比重已達31%，排名第一，我國僅次於中國大陸、日本、俄羅斯排名全球第四高。外資分析師普遍認為，台灣因為外匯存底、經常帳餘額高和外部債務穩健，因此受到這波資金大撤逃的影響不大。

註：央行只要將 6 ~ 24 個月人民幣定存利率調高、多元人民幣商品，將人民幣換匯成本降低，許多外資未投入股市、債卷，自然會投入人民幣定存就會穩定住台幣匯率，同時讓外資將短期套回轉成長期駐留資金。

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噴射背包將驅動個人飛行時代來臨 ( Jetback will enable the personal aviation )

噴射背包 最快後年飛上市

紐西蘭開發商十三日表示，他們設計的個人飛行器「噴射背包」已取得飛航單位許可，即將進行飛行測試。

馬丁飛機公司執行董事寇克（Peter Coker）表示，取得執照是個人飛行器發展的重大里程碑。他說：「對我們來說，這是非常重要的一步，我們從一個夢想，走到現在即將商業化。」

這種個人飛行器是發明家馬丁（Glenn Martin）的心血結晶，他三十多年前自家車庫中展開噴射背包研發。

馬丁的靈感來自孩童時代電視節目《雷鳥神機隊》與《太空歷險記》，一九八○年代初期起，經多年研發，總算創造出適合老百姓日常使用、無須接受專業機師訓練即可駕駛的個人飛行器。

他設計的噴射背包主體為碳纖框架，連結一對包含推進風扇的圓筒，駕駛背對著站進框架中，繫好帶子，透過搖桿控制飛行器。

雖然噴射背包的概念非常簡單，《時代》雜誌還形容它不過是把兩個大型吹葉機焊接在一起，不過要把它微調成安全無虞又容易使用的飛機，還是走了段漫長的研發路。

寇克說，為軍方和消防隊員等緊急救難人員設計的專業版噴射背包，明年中應能交貨；鎖定普羅大眾的較陽春版則可望於後年上市。

這種個人飛行器預估售價在十五萬到二十五萬美元（約新台幣四百五十萬至七百五十萬元）間，寇克說，未來製造成本可能降低。




The Martin jetpack returns, ready for piloted test flights


Over in New Zealand, there's at least one jetpack with a flight permit. The new "P12" Martin Jetpack is a much more maneuverable design which also benefits from not-so-minor improvements in flight stability. It may have been these design improvements that lead New Zealand flight regulators to issue the device's permit.



The permit itself is quite limited. The jetpack may only fly at maximum altitudes of 20 feet above the ground or 25 feet over water. This is far below the jetpack's 5,000 foot height record — but then the only pilot at risk of injury during that flight was a crash test dummy. The jetpack may also only operate in uninhabited, rural areas for the time being.

All this regulation might be a temporary setback however, as Martin Aircraft Company's recently-appointed CEO Peter Coker has plans to offer a military and first-responder version of the vehicle for sale by next summer. Civilian models are to follow in late 2015. With plenty of testing yet to be done, we'll cross our fingers that Coker can stick to those timetables.

WHAT IS THE MARTIN JETPACK?

The Martin Jetpack is the world’s first practical jetpack. It consists of a purpose-built gasoline engine driving twin ducted fans which produce sufficient thrust to lift the aircraft and a pilot in vertical takeoff and landing, and enable sustained flight.

The Martin Jetpack is creating a new segment in the aviation and recreational vehicle markets. Initially designed with the leisure market in mind, commercial demand for the Martin Jetpack has seen the development programme focus on readying the product for use in a number of sectors including emergency response, defence and recreation, with numerous applications in each sector.

There is also an unmanned version planned which will lift more than most vertical take-off and landing unmanned aerial vehicles.

The Martin Jetpack can take off from a small space, so is easy to deploy anywhere.  It is easy to learn to fly, has an automated hover function, and is expected to be able to be flown in reasonable weather conditions.
Safety is very important to the Martin Aircraft Company.  The dedicated engine is being designed to an aviation industry standard.  In addition, the Martin Jetpack is designed to protect the pilot, including a ballistic parachute and a crumple undercarriage.

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