2013年5月13日 星期一

日、美、歐都大印鈔,台灣經濟差,需拉高M1B刺激景氣,2013 資金行情含大振盪將形成?( 2013 stock market will have a big trend to surge up ? )

歐洲也得步日本後塵!大摩:印鈔機今秋啟動 歐元2年半貶至平價

華爾街投資銀行摩根士丹利 (Morgan Stanley) 預估,歐元兌美元恐在 2 年半內貶值至與美元平價,因預期歐元區將啟動拉貶自身貨幣的政策,以刺激區域經濟成長。

大摩全球外匯策略部主任 Hans- Guenter Redeker 周二 (26 日) 於雪梨接受《彭博社》訪問時預料,今年累積已貶值 2.6% 的歐元還將繼續走跌,因為賽普勒斯達成的紓困方案,引發外界對於歐元區銀行存款安全性的憂慮。此外,意大利經歷上個月大選結果膠著,遲遲難以組成政府,也將打壓歐元。

Redeker 指出,這項紓困協議雖然目前只關乎賽普勒斯,但將令人們越來越介意提供歐元區邊緣國注資。長期而言,歐洲的貨幣交流將停滯,而「沒有信貸就沒有經濟成長」;加上區域財政政策仍然破碎,因此對於歐元區前景難以不抱持相當悲觀看法。

Redeker 預估,歐元兌美元將由目前的 1.28 美元價位至今年底貶值至 1.25 美元,低於市場分析師平均預期的 1.29 美元。他並預估,歐元至明年底將進一步貶值至 1.19 美元,且「在 2 年半左右時間,將貶值至逼近平價」。

根據賽普勒斯政府本周一 (25 日) 與歐盟達成的 100 億歐元紓困協議,賽國銀行優先債券持有人將必須承擔虧損,且未擔保的存款人將大幅被踢除。Redeker 指出,這樣的協議「長期而言是非常負面的事」,將導致在西班牙及意大利這類負債累累的歐元國,民間融資利息與德國相較恐維持高漲,進而破壞歐元區寬鬆貨幣政策的效力,同時間歐洲財政緊縮政策又持續影響經濟成長。

Redeker 大膽預言,歐洲接下來所能做的,就是到了今年秋天採取和日本一樣的行動,亦即施行讓自身貨幣貶值的政策,以支持出口及經濟成長。他認為,歐洲當局接下來將開始討論這樣的政策,到了今年第三及第四季,便將是強有力的推行時間。

日本印鈔救市…台灣汽車、電子業受惠

日本央行推出無限期量化寬鬆政策(QE),宣示日圓長期貶值趨勢,台股上市櫃公司幾家歡樂、幾家愁,法人說,旅遊航空業、以及對日採購零組件的汽車、自行車與電子業都將受惠,不過被動元件、PCB軟板、工具機業受到日圓大貶影響,出口競爭力將面臨衝擊。
新任日本首相安倍晉三上台後,大舉「印鈔救市」,日圓自去年12月起急貶至前天盤中最低價90.24元,累計日圓兌美元匯率貶值幅度達9.39%。
台新投顧研究部經理黃文清說,汽車、自行車零組件廠商可望因進口材料或器材成本降低,業績進一步成長,而向日本採購設備或原材料的半導體相關IC載板業者,也有機會受惠成本下降利多。

另外代理日系車款「NEXUS」的和泰車(2207)也可能因日圓貶值,車款價位降低,進而提升品牌競爭力,值得持續關注。
摩根台灣金磚基金經理人葉鴻儒說,日圓貶值將刺激民眾赴日旅遊人潮增加,相關旅遊、旅行社及航空業都可能受惠。
在受害族群方面,黃文清說,被動元件、PCB軟板、工具機等三大產業,台廠與日廠處於競爭地位,日圓貶值強化日本競爭力,台灣業者面臨訂單流失風險。
而日圓趨貶將降低日本民眾的消費力與購買力,以日客為主要消費群的飯店業者,業績恐受到影響。

施壓奏效!日本央行同意訂2%通膨目標 無限期收購資產

日本央行周二 (22 日) 政策會議後決議,將無限期進行收購資產行動,並同意日本政府要求,將通貨膨脹率目標由原本較寬鬆的 1% 大增至 2%。消息傳出後日元驟貶。

日本央行周二結束為期 2 日的貨幣政策會議後,無異議維持基準利率不變於 0%-0.1%,並一如外界普遍預期,採納政府主張的 2% 通膨目標政策,但並未宣布施行時間表。欲藉此結束苦惱日本過去 20 年的持續通貨緊縮困境。

日本央行在聲明中表示,透過今日宣布的幾近零利率及無限期收購金融資產等措施,將進行「積極的貨幣寬鬆」政策,「近可能最快」達成 2% 的物價穩定目標。今日宣布的資產收購規模,也大於市場原本預期的增加 10 兆日元 (1110 億美元)。
今日宣布的擴大貨幣寬鬆措施及新通膨目標,是為日本新政府企圖提振日本疲軟經濟的武器。消息傳出後,日元兌美元由公布前的 89.49 日元下貶至 89.83 日元。日本 10 年期公債期貨價格則下跌 0.19 點至 144.22。

不過日本央行同時警告,今日宣布新貨幣政策的效果要滲透入日本經濟,還得等上相當長一段時間。央行表示,自明年起將把目前 101 兆日元 (1.31 兆美元) 的資產收購措施規模改為無限期,預期令明年收購規模增加 10 兆日元 (1110 億美元)。

美印鈔撈實惠很上癮

據人民日報報道,進入2013年,美國實施量化寬鬆貨幣政策的勁頭絲毫未減。美聯儲主席伯南克3月20日在今年舉行的首次新聞發佈會上重申,維持現行寬鬆貨幣政策不變,以刺激就業增長和經濟復甦。同時,對大家所關心的該政策結束時間,他並未給出明確答案。專家指出,美國量化寬鬆必然增發貨幣,其過度流動性有可能加劇其他國家通脹等風險。中國應盡快轉變依賴出口的經濟增長方式,通過擴大內需擺脫負面影響。

繼續寬鬆以刺激經濟

美聯儲宣佈,維持利率在0-0.25%區間不變,並重申將以每月450億美元的進度購買較長期美國國債,以每月400億美元的進度購買機構MBS。美聯儲還表示,預計在資產購買計劃結束和經濟增強之後,高度寬鬆的政策將在一段時間內仍然適宜。

「美國繼續實施量化寬鬆貨幣政策的出發點,還是為了國內經濟的需要」,首都經濟貿易大學金融學院院長謝太峰對本報記者說,任何國家實施的貨幣政策只會考慮本國的需要。目前美國失業率下降有限,說明前幾輪的寬鬆貨幣政策效果有限,所以要繼續實施該政策。

就業和經濟增長是美國量化寬鬆政策的關注點。伯南克表示,雖然過去6個月來美國失業率已下降0.4個百分點,過去4個月月均新增非農就業崗位人數達到20.5萬,但這並不足以使美聯儲開始削減購債規模,還需要幾個月的時間來評估就業改善的趨勢能否持續。伯南克解釋維持量化寬鬆規模的原因時表示,一是擔心具有「限制性」的財政政策將令經濟增長放緩;二是多數委員認為資產購買正為經濟提供有力支撐。

通過印鈔向他國轉嫁通脹

美國量化寬鬆在刺激本國經濟之餘,還能從他國撈到好處。謝太峰分析說,發達國家主要靠消費拉動經濟,當他們的消費超過生產缺口時,就從其他國家進口。美國就是這樣,量化寬鬆必然增發貨幣,以刺激需求拉動消費。當消費起來時,美國從其他國家進口商品,因為美國是儲備貨幣發行國,所以,大量印鈔不僅沒有引起美國本土物價上漲,還通過進口獲取了實際資源,通過美元貶值縮減了債務,最終,是將通脹轉移到了向他出口的國家。

如此多的好處,美國怎能不患上印鈔依賴症?然而,美國得益的同時,那些向他出口商品的國家雖然出口增加,但同時也有很大損失:辛苦生產的商品供給美國,自己只換回一堆紙——美元。這些國家的中央銀行還要加大貨幣投放量來收回這些美元,進而造成貨幣貶值,物價上漲。

「靠出口的發展中國家順差越大,本國市場商品越少,美元越多,形成了商品的淨流出和貨幣的淨流入,同時本國貨幣供應增多」,謝太峰指出,美國就是這樣通過印鈔轉嫁了通脹。

對此,中國央行行長周小川早已有擔憂,他稱,由於美元是全球主要儲備貨幣,因此與其他央行不同,美國的貨幣政策會對全球經濟造成影響。他表示,美國須擔負起更多責任,不僅要考慮其經濟自身的需要,還應考慮對全球經濟的影響。

轉變增長方式擺脫負面影響

美國量化寬鬆貨幣政策對中國的影響,像很多以出口為主的發展中國家一樣,有利有弊。利的方面是,美國經濟增長後,需求增加,會擴大對中國的進口。弊的方面是加劇了中國輸入性通脹的風險。

專家認為,美國過剩的流動性還可能導致更多熱錢進入中國,擾亂正常金融秩序。美國超發貨幣還將造成美元貶值,加劇匯率波動,使中國外匯儲備大量縮水。周小川曾表示,中國希望輸入美國經濟的流動性能留在美國經濟當中。

要擺脫美國量化寬鬆對中國的負面影響,謝太峰建議,盡快改變經濟增長方式,不再依賴出口拉動經濟,而要靠內需。內需不只靠投資,更要轉向消費,提高普通老百姓的收入,讓他們有錢進行消費。還有專家認為,應加快人民幣國際化步伐,改革美元主導的國際貨幣體系。

台灣 M1B 創歷史新高

根據中央銀行統計,3月M1B年增率漲至6.03%,創下一年半來新高,台股資金動能可期。央行經研處副處長陳一端指出,2月下旬為春假,民眾對活期資金需求增加,季節性因素遞延至3月,推升M1B年增率。至於央行貨幣政策指標M2年增率,因銀行放款與投資成長增加,3月進一步上漲至3.78%,為去年10月以來的半年新高。


急攻600點後..陳奕光:借券飆新高 留意熱錢派對散場!

台股由外資「認錯」,緊接著熱錢大舉湧入,加上市場期待「廢證所稅」,近13個交易日,大盤急攻逾600點,不僅成功突破8170點去年高點,也回補100年8月的8317歐債風暴跳空缺口。第一金投顧副總經理陳奕光指出,這波台股外資在股市、匯市、期市都是大贏家,不過在急攻600點之後,法人借券累計賣出也飆上1800億元歷史新高,投資人仍需密切觀察外資是否轉為獲利落袋,留意「熱錢派對」散場!

外資本波連續買超台股12個交易日,累計買超台股達690億元,陳奕光表示,也大致符合外資平均買超1億元推升加權指數1點,受到證所稅的影響,台股「內資」參與意願降低,而外資沒有證所稅的問題,相較之下,對台股盤勢的主導性加強。這波台股的走勢即是典型由外資主導,而外資的操作手法,通常先從期貨市場開始佈局,摩台指、台指期、選擇權佈局多單,接著熱錢湧入,新台幣匯率開始轉升,再買超台股現股。

陳奕光估算,外資這波在台股的操作上,從期貨、匯市到台股,約已大賺500億元,台股指數推升約600點,近日位於8200-8300高檔震盪之際,近2日外資在台指期貨的佈局上,雖然留倉多單尚未撤退,不過留倉空單卻出現加碼跡象,淨多單倉位降至1.5萬口,且在匯市方面,雖然央行查炒匯遭否認,但新台幣匯率由升轉貶卻是事實,再加上法人借券累計賣出,飆上1800億元歷史新高,此一數字已達台股9200點水準,從這些跡象來看,都得留意外資「熱錢派對」是否已經進入尾聲。

陳奕光預估,台股第2季的高點,大約應落在本波,由外資熱錢與市場期待「廢證所稅」共同推升出的行情,下周台指期貨將結算,大盤指數仍可在高檔,觀察位置為5月3日歐洲央行宣布降息,熱錢加速湧入台灣,當日台股的低點為8121點,短線上大盤將以8121-8300點震盪為主。

國泰證期投顧也指出,台股在周線拉出連4紅,歐美股市無重大干擾下,下周台指期貨結算,仍以拉高機率較大。台股大盤只要可維持800億元以上的量能水準,成交量緩步升溫,後市仍以偏多看待,電子族群短線急漲後,如進入震盪整理,金融族群必須接棒,台股才可維持良好的類股輪動格局。

分析
  • 美國用 QE forever 來持續刻服不景氣、通縮、失業率問題,若沒有美國 QE 印鈔政策,雷曼倒閉後全球肯定持續通縮
  • 美國 QE 印鈔政策成功後,激起歐洲、日本央行也加入印鈔行列,澳洲、巴西降息也加入貨幣寬鬆行列,全球將相當於印鈔超過數兆美元,這是 2013 全球資金行情背景;
  • 台灣因證所稅外資、主力仍不願意增加交易稅收成本,所以台股拉到 8500 ~ 8350 仍會讓外資抓住機會用"法人借券"與期指將台灣人的錢套走,說實在證所稅對台灣一點幫助也沒有。
  • 證所稅降低了稅收又讓外資完全控制了台股、又降低台灣經濟成長率,還會造成勞保基金、退輔基金的虧損,所造成的傷害遠大於要達成的目標,暫緩實施並研究可行之方案,等經濟成長率大於3.5%時再實施吧! 否則,傷害是全民的,景氣不好,受害最深是勞工。
  • 馬總統談公平正義,為什麼不從勞保與公保退休福利公平的方向去改革?馬總統只肯幫公務員加薪 3%,談到年金改革,對勞工的苛薄是驚人的,對軍公教年金改革一拖再拖,修改幅度也很小,什麼『公平正義』、『共體時艱』?都是勞工受害最深,整體繳稅總額卻是勞工繳最多。
  • 台股資金行情條件,美國 QE 印鈔是持續,QE 縮減是漸進的;
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2013年5月11日 星期六

Intel 的反攻 - Intel 3D 電晶體與TSMC 製程之競爭 ( Intel's 「Silvermont」can fight against ARM? )

Intel再推低功耗高效能 Silvermont 新軍

為了對抗ARM勢力陣營,Intel可說是在微處理器領域卯足的全力,近日,針對行動裝置設備,發表了全新以22nm製程技術打造的Atom SoC處理器-「Silvermont」,最高可支援8核心,同時採用3D三閘電晶體(Tri-Gate)技術,強調更省電、效能加倍,並且能夠廣泛應用在智慧手機、平板電腦、微型伺服器、入門款電腦、車載影音系統。

新一代的Silvermont微架構與先前Atom處理器相比,在效能提高三倍的情況下功耗部分亦能節省5倍電力,Intel表示,將在2013年年底上市的「Bay Tail」Atom處理器以及「Merrifield」智慧手機平台兩者都是採用全新「Silvermont」微架構技術。
最新進度超前,TSMC 製程提早二年,讓ARM 打中 Intel

Intel產品長暨執行副總裁Dadi Perlmutter強調,目前採用Silvermont微架構以及Bay Trail與Avoton的22nm SoC,提供給客戶的初步樣本(Tape Out)獲得客戶相當高的評價,未來將會加速發展低功耗的微架構,並且在每一年都會推出最新技術。

另外,Intel也將在今年Computex 2013展公開展出新一代採用22nm Haswell架構的Intel Core處理器,強調內建顯示卡的效能已經能與GeForce GT 650M相抗衡,現在又把目標放的更遠,讓新一代的Haswell(第四代)與桌上電腦之獨立顯卡效能一較高下。

可以看到Intel希望透過Silvermont與Haswell微架構,能在不同應用領域市場帶來良好的使用體驗以及更加的功耗控制。至於「Silvermont」Atom處理器什麼時候問世,目前還沒有確定的上市時程,但相信在強調低功耗高效能的行動處理器戰國時代,勢必只有搶得先機絕不會落人而後。

:按照 Intel 的說法,Silvermont 的全新架構設計能讓 CPU 運行速度達到現有產品的三倍,而且在某些情況下運算過程中的功耗水平將僅為現有產品的五分之一,而這些改進背後的最大功臣就是 Intel 專為 SoC 產品而設的 22nm 製程及 3D 電晶體。

改抱 Android 英特爾推低價平板

低價平板的魅力讓英特爾及微軟也決定加入此塊市場,預計在今年推出產品。微軟財務長Peter Klein近日在財報會上證實,未來幾個月內將推出小尺寸且低價的Windows 8平板裝置,而英特爾執行長Paul Otellini日前也曾透漏,今年將推出200美元以下的觸控裝置。不過據傳,英特爾的觸控裝置卻不一定採用Windows 8作業系統,而是Android。

目前Windows 8平板電腦或筆電售價大多在600美元以上,讓PC市場在過去一年來苦苦求生,IHS iSuppli分析師Craig Stice指出,其中的一大原因在於PC售價是一台200美元平板電腦的三倍之多,也因此200-300美元的Windows 8設備不無可能。如果PC產業能夠將價格降到200-300美元,將有可能會有優勢,增加需求。

然而,即使微軟調降 Windows 8 及 Office 軟體授權費,200美元以下的價格,將會影響利潤。IDC分析師 Bob O'Donnell 表示,英特爾即將在7月發表一款搭載Atom處理器的Windows 8平板電腦,其售價約為299美元。因此,外傳英特爾最低價的設備將可能運行在非Windows作業系統上,且目前正在推廣Android的變形產品,且包括聯想、HP、東芝、宏碁、華碩等大廠在未來幾個月內都會推出新產品。

不過 Android 中採用英特爾或ARM平台並不完全一樣,一些App必須經過轉換或移植才能在英特爾平台上運行。也因此,相較於ARM,英特爾設備上的APP數量較少,對此英特爾也表示,在去年已有95%的APP能夠兩者兼容。

台積電:加速改變摩爾定律 將推10nm製程

不久前ARM才宣佈與台積電完成首款以16nm FinFET製程技術優化64位元ARMv8處理器系列產品的消息,並且最快在今年內就成正式量產,目前台積電方面也透露將在2015年左右完成以EUV (波長較短的紫外線)為基礎原理的 10nm製成技術,估計將以此加速超越過去摩爾定律所提出硬體進步速率。

根據EE Times網站報導指出,在目前與三星等廠商競爭下,台積電除了稍早與ARM宣佈將完成
以16nm FinFET製程技術優化64位元ARMv8處理器系列產品,並且將在2013年底前開始量產的消息外,目前也透露將在2015年間左右跨入10nm製程技術,同時也說明將強化既有3D晶片堆疊製作技術,並且擴大現有28nm製程產量產能。

台積電創辦人暨執行長張忠謀於近期訪談時表示,估計在7-8年間將會加速從10nm製程跨入小至7nm製程技術的速度,藉此將再讓摩爾定律重新被定義。

另一方面,先前根據Intel所透露旗下產品製程發展藍圖,其中也透露將在2015年之後跨入10nm、7nm或5nm製程里程,在2013年間的產品製程將以14nm為主。


Deep inside Intel's new ARM killer: Silvermont

Intel has released details about its new Silvermont Atom processor microarchitecture, and — on paper, at least – it appears that Chipzilla has a mobile market winner on its hands.

Yes, yes, we know: you've heard it all before, from Menlow to Moorestown to Medfield. Intel has made promise after promise that its next Atom-based platform would be its ticket into the mobile show, but – not to put too fine a point on it – they've failed.

Nimble, snappy, power-miserly chips based on the ARM architecture – from Qualcomm, Nvidia, Apple, Samsung, Texas Instruments, and others, including possibly your aunt Harriet – have simply eaten Intel's lunch in the mobile space during the long, slow years in which Chipzilla has attempted to move its x86 architecture down into the low-power market.

On Monday, however, the general manager of the Intel Architecture Group, Dadi Perlmutter, and Intel Fellow Belli Kuttanna gathered a group of journalists at their company's Santa Clara, California, headquarters, and "took the wraps off" Silvermont, the new Atom microarchitecture that they promise will finally allow Intel to crack the low-power chip market in a big way.

This time, it looks like they may very well be telling the truth – that is, of course, if Silvermont will provide a choice of three times the performance or one-fifth the power of the current-generation Atom compute core, as they claim.

And remember, when we say "low-power" market, we're not simply talking about smartphones and tablets – although those hot commodities are clearly key to Silvermont's future. Intel's new Atom compute-core microarchitecture will indeed appear in the Bay Trail platform for tablets ("scheduled for holiday 2013") and the Merrifield platform for smartphones ("scheduled to ship to customers by the end of this year"), but it will also find a home in the Avoton microserver platform and the Rangeley network-equipment platform ("both ... scheduled for the second half of this year"), and an as-yet-unnamed automotive platform.

In all of these platforms, Silvermont will bring a host of improvements to the Atom's compute-core architecture – an architecture that has remained essentially the same (with tweaks) since it was first announced in 2004. Code-named Bonnell, it shipped in 2008 at 45 nanometers, then was integrated into a system-on-chip, Saltwell, which shipped last year at 32nm.

Before we dig into an explication of the new architecture, we should first offer a word of thanks to the technology that makes it possible: Intel's FinFET wrap-around transistor implementation that it calls Tri-Gate. When we first wrote about that 22nm transistor technology back in May 2011, we noted that it might be Intel's last, best chance to crack the mobile market.

Now that Intel has created an implementation of the Tri-Gate transistor technology specifically designed for low-power system-on-chip (SoC) use – and not just using the Tri-Gate process it employs for big boys such as Core and Xeon – it's ready to rumble.

Tri-Gate has a number of significant advantages over tried-and-true planar transistors, but the one that's of particular significance to Silvermont is that when it's coupled with clever power management, Tri-Gate can be used to create chips that exhibit an exceptionally wide dynamic range – meaning that they can be turned waaay down to low power when performance needs aren't great, then cranked back up when heavy lifting is required.

This wide dynamic range, Kuttanna said, obviates the need for what ARM has dubbed a big.LITTLE architecture, in which a low-power core handles low-performance tasks, then hands off processing to a more powerful core – or cores – when the need arises for more oomph.

"In our case," he said, "because of the combination of architecture techniques as well as the process technology, we don't really need to do that. We can go up and down the range and cover the entire performance range." In addition, he said, Silvermont doesn't need to crank up its power as high as some of those competitors to achieve the same amount of performance.

Or, as Perlmutter put it more succinctly, "We do big and small in one shot."

Equally important is the fact that a wide dynamic range allows for a seamless transition from low-power, low-performance operation to high-power, high-performance operation without the need to hand off processing between core types. "That requires the state that you have been operating on in one of the cores to be transferred between the two cores," Kuttanna said. "That requires extra time. And the long switching time translates to either a loss in performance ... or it translates to lower battery life."

In addition, with a 22nm Tri-Gate process you can fit a lot of transistors and the features they enable into a small, power-miserly die – but that's so obvious we won't even mention it. Oops. Just did.

Little Atom grows up
But back to the microarchitecture itself. Let's start, as Kuttanna did in his deep-dive technical explanation of Silvermont, with the fact that the new Atom microarchitecture has changed from the in-order execution used in the Bonnell/Saltwell core to an out-of-order execution (OoO), as is used in its more powerful siblings, Core and Xeon, and in most modern microprocessors.

OoO can provide significant performance improvements over in-order execution – and, in a nutshell, here's why. Both in-order and OoO get the instructions that they're tasked with performing in the order that a software compiler has assembled them. An in-order processor takes those instructions and matches them up with the data upon which they will be performed – the operand – and performs whatever task is required.

Unfortunately, that operand is not always close at hand in the processor's cache. It may, for example, be far away in main memory – or even worse, out in virtual memory on a hard drive or SSD. It might also be the result of an earlier instruction that hasn't yet been completed. When that operand is not available, an in-order execution pipeline must wait for it, effectively stalling the entire execution series until that operand is available.


To the rescue – again – comes Intel's 22nm Tri-Gate process. Now that Silvermont has moved to this new process, Intel's engineers decided that they now have the die real estate and power savings to move into the 21st century, and Silvermont will benefit greatly from that decision.

分析
  • Intel  22nm 製程及 3D 電晶體將使 Intel CPU 功耗與 ARM 配合 TSMC 新一代製程大力競爭,也就是 22nm 製程 + 3D 電晶體與 TSMC 14nm + ARM 競爭,若 TSMC 贏了,TSMC 及 Samsung 將吃掉 PC、Tablet 及 Smart Phone 整個晶片市場,若 Intel 贏了,頂多 Intel 贏回部份 Tablet 晶片市場,因為 ARM 晶片價格優勢是遠超過 Intel;
  • 依 TSMC 製程技術時程,若 14nm 明年量產,ARM CPU 計算能力將 4倍,預估消耗功率將降低 3 ~ 3.8 倍,所以只要 TSMC  14nm 製程技術順利量產,Intel 是一定被打敗,整個 PC、Tablet 及 Smart Phone 晶片市場將是 TSMC 與 Samsung 共同分享的時代;
  • 依 TSMC 製程技術時程,若 14nm 明年無法量產,只能讓 20nm TSMC 製程量產,ARM CPU 計算能力將 1.9倍,預估消耗功率將降低 1.6 ~ 1.8 倍,由於 ARM CPU 消耗功率本來就比 Intel CPU 非常多,因此 ARM CPU 仍維持價格及消耗功率優勢,消耗功率優勢與 Intel 之 「Silvermont」將拉近,依 Tablet 平板低價趨勢,Intel 之 「Silvermont」頂多吃到高價 Tablet 平板市場,因此,還是很難反攻。
  •  Tablet 平板低價趨勢將吃掉 PC 市場,這是 ARM 最大市場優勢的點,將被 Qualcomm、MTK、NVIDIA、Samsung 吃掉整個 Tablet 及 Smart Phone 市場,當一台四核心平板電腦才 89 ~ 99 美元時,我不知道要將 Intel 昂貴的 CPU 放那裡?人們根本不需要 Intel 昂貴的 CPU 之高能計算速度。( 註:Tegra 3 CPU 當年與 Intel Atom 系列 CPU 價格比是 1/4,只有 Intel CPU 1/4 價格,Intel 3D transistor 製程下之電晶體會便宜嗎?答案是 No )。
  • 建議 TSMC 及 MTK 大力投資研發,超越 Intel 及其他競爭對手,讓台灣經濟實力大幅上升,TSMC 只要日夜兩班制加速研發一定可以與 Intel 並駕共享整個半導體市場,若忽略研發速度將輸給 Intel 及 Samsung,那會造成整個台灣大衰退,張忠謀就變成台灣最被歷史記載的爛領導。
  • 晶圓代工龍頭台積電(2330)28奈米訂單滿手,為支應客戶訂單需求、避免產能短缺事件重演,台積電今年規劃投入90億美元資本支出(CapEx)擴充先進製程產能,同時因台積電蓄意培植台系半導體設備供應鏈、強化對台系供應商的採購量,包括漢微科(3658)、晶圓傳載盒供應商家登(3680)、後段濕製程設備商弘塑(3131)、離子植入機耗材廠翔名(8091)、以及再生晶圓供應商中砂(1560)和辛耘(3583)、材料分析檢測廠閎康(3587)等股本較小的半導體生產設備族群,都被巴克萊點名,將因台積電的採購案佔各公司營收比重高,業績獲28奈米製程演進的支撐,今年營運熱度料將水漲船高。
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2013年5月9日 星期四

小型核融合發電機將來出現 - 未來影響人類最大發明( Small nuclear fussion reactors invented and change the world )

Physics wunderkind Taylor Wilson astounded the science world when, at age 14, he became the youngest person in history to produce fusion. The University of Nevada-Reno offered a home for his early experiments when Wilson’s worried parents realized he had every intention of building his reactor in the garage. 

Wilson now intends to fight nuclear terror in the nation's ports, with a homemade radiation detector priced an order of magnitude lower than most current devices. In 2012, Wilson's dreams received a boost when he became a recipient of the $100,000 Thiel Prize. Wilson now intends revolutionize the way we produce energy, fight cancer, and combat terrorism using nuclear technology.

Well, I have a big announcement to make today, and I'm really excited about this. And this may be a little bit of a surprise to many of you who know my research and what I've done well. I've really tried to solve some big problems: counter-terrorism, nuclear terrorism, and health care and diagnosing and treating cancer, but I started thinking about all these problems, and I realized that the really biggest problem we face, what all these other problems come down to, is energy, is electricity, the flow of electrons. And I decided that I was going to set out to try to solve this problem.

And this probably is not what you're expecting. You're probably expecting me to come up here and talk about fusion, because that's what I've done most of my life. But this is actually a talk about, okay -- (Laughter) — but this is actually a talk about fission. It's about perfecting something old, and bringing something old into the 21st century.

Let's talk a little bit about how nuclear fission works. In a nuclear power plant, you have a big pot of water that's under high pressure, and you have some fuel rods, and these fuel rods are encased in zirconium, and they're little pellets of uranium dioxide fuel, and a fission reaction is controlled and maintained at a proper level, and that reaction heats up water, the water turns to steam, steam turns the turbine, and you produce electricity from it. This is the same way we've been producing electricity, the steam turbine idea, for 100 years, and nuclear was a really big advancement in a way to heat the water, but you still boil water and that turns to steam and turns the turbine.

And I thought, you know, is this the best way to do it? Is fission kind of played out, or is there something left to innovate here? And I realized that I had hit upon something that I think has this huge potential to change the world. And this is what it is.

This is a small modular reactor. So it's not as big as the reactor you see in the diagram here. This is between 50 and 100 megawatts. But that's a ton of power. That's between, say at an average use, that's maybe 25,000 to 100,000 homes could run off that. Now the really interesting thing about these reactors is they're built in a factory. So they're modular reactors that are built essentially on an assembly line, and they're trucked anywhere in the world, you plop them down, and they produce electricity. This region right here is the reactor.

And this is buried below ground, which is really important. For someone who's done a lot of counterterrorism work, I can't extol to you how great having something buried below the ground is for proliferation and security concerns.

And inside this reactor is a molten salt, so anybody who's a fan of thorium, they're going to be really excited about this, because these reactors happen to be really good at breeding and burning the thorium fuel cycle, uranium-233.

But I'm not really concerned about the fuel. You can run these off -- they're really hungry, they really like down-blended weapons pits, so that's highly enriched uranium and weapons-grade plutonium that's been down-blended. It's made into a grade where it's not usable for a nuclear weapon, but they love this stuff. And we have a lot of it sitting around, because this is a big problem. You know, in the Cold War, we built up this huge arsenal of nuclear weapons, and that was great, and we don't need them anymore, and what are we doing with all the waste, essentially? What are we doing with all the pits of those nuclear weapons? Well, we're securing them, and it would be great if we could burn them, eat them up, and this reactor loves this stuff.

So it's a molten salt reactor. It has a core, and it has a heat exchanger from the hot salt, the radioactive salt, to a cold salt which isn't radioactive. It's still thermally hot but it's not radioactive. And then that's a heat exchanger to what makes this design really, really interesting, and that's a heat exchanger to a gas. So going back to what I was saying before about all power being produced -- well, other than photovoltaic -- being produced by this boiling of steam and turning a turbine, that's actually not that efficient, and in fact, in a nuclear power plant like this, it's only roughly 30 to 35 percent efficient. That's how much thermal energy the reactor's putting out to how much electricity it's producing. And the reason the efficiencies are so low is these reactors operate at pretty low temperature. They operate anywhere from, you know, maybe 200 to 300 degrees Celsius. And these reactors run at 600 to 700 degrees Celsius, which means the higher the temperature you go to, thermodynamics tells you that you will have higher efficiencies. And this reactor doesn't use water. It uses gas, so supercritical CO2 or helium, and that goes into a turbine, and this is called the Brayton cycle. This is the thermodynamic cycle that produces electricity, and this makes this almost 50 percent efficient, between 45 and 50 percent efficiency. And I'm really excited about this, because it's a very compact core. Molten salt reactors are very compact by nature, but what's also great is you get a lot more electricity out for how much uranium you're fissioning, not to mention the fact that these burn up. Their burn-up is much higher. So for a given amount of fuel you put in the reactor, a lot more of it's being used.

And the problem with a traditional nuclear power plant like this is, you've got these rods that are clad in zirconium, and inside them are uranium dioxide fuel pellets. Well, uranium dioxide's a ceramic, and ceramic doesn't like releasing what's inside of it. So you have what's called the xenon pit, and so some of these fission products love neutrons. They love the neutrons that are going on and helping this reaction take place. And they eat them up, which means that, combined with the fact that the cladding doesn't last very long, you can only run one of these reactors for roughly, say, 18 months without refueling it. So these reactors run for 30 years without refueling, which is, in my opinion, very, very amazing, because it means it's a sealed system. No refueling means you can seal them up and they're not going to be a proliferation risk, and they're not going to have either nuclear material or radiological material proliferated from their cores.

But let's go back to safety, because everybody after Fukushima had to reassess the safety of nuclear, and one of the things when I set out to design a power reactor was it had to be passively and intrinsically safe, and I'm really excited about this reactor for essentially two reasons. One, it doesn't operate at high pressure. So traditional reactors like a pressurized water reactor or boiling water reactor, they're very, very hot water at very high pressures, and this means, essentially, in the event of an accident, if you had any kind of breach of this stainless steel pressure vessel, the coolant would leave the core. These reactors operate at essentially atmospheric pressure, so there's no inclination for the fission products to leave the reactor in the event of an accident. Also, they operate at high temperatures, and the fuel is molten, so they can't melt down, but in the event that the reactor ever went out of tolerances, or you lost off-site power in the case of something like Fukushima, there's a dump tank. Because your fuel is liquid, and it's combined with your coolant, you could actually just drain the core into what's called a sub-critical setting, basically a tank underneath the reactor that has some neutrons absorbers. And this is really important, because the reaction stops. In this kind of reactor, you can't do that. The fuel, like I said, is ceramic inside zirconium fuel rods, and in the event of an accident in one of these type of reactors, Fukushima and Three Mile Island -- looking back at Three Mile Island, we didn't really see this for a while — but these zirconium claddings on these fuel rods, what happens is, when they see high pressure water, steam, in an oxidizing environment, they'll actually produce hydrogen, and that hydrogen has this explosive capability to release fission products. So the core of this reactor, since it's not under pressure and it doesn't have this chemical reactivity, means that there's no inclination for the fission products to leave this reactor. So even in the event of an accident, yeah, the reactor may be toast, which is, you know, sorry for the power company, but we're not going to contaminate large quantities of land. So I really think that in the, say, 20 years it's going to take us to get fusion and make fusion a reality, this could be the source of energy that provides carbon-free electricity. Carbon-free electricity.

And it's an amazing technology because not only does it combat climate change, but it's an innovation. It's a way to bring power to the developing world, because it's produced in a factory and it's cheap. You can put them anywhere in the world you want to.

And maybe something else. As a kid, I was obsessed with space. Well, I was obsessed with nuclear science too, to a point, but before that I was obsessed with space, and I was really excited about, you know, being an astronaut and designing rockets, which was something that was always exciting to me. But I think I get to come back to this, because imagine having a compact reactor in a rocket that produces 50 to 100 megawatts. That is the rocket designer's dream. That's someone who is designing a habitat on another planet's dream. Not only do you have 50 to 100 megawatts to power whatever you want to provide propulsion to get you there, but you have power once you get there. You know, rocket designers who use solar panels or fuel cells, I mean a few watts or kilowatts -- wow, that's a lot of power. I mean, now we're talking about 100 megawatts. That's a ton of power. That could power a Martian community. That could power a rocket there. And so I hope that maybe I'll have an opportunity to kind of explore my rocketry passion at the same time that I explore my nuclear passion.

And people say, "Oh, well, you've launched this thing, and it's radioactive, into space, and what about accidents?" But we launch plutonium batteries all the time. Everybody was really excited about Curiosity, and that had this big plutonium battery on board that has plutonium-238, which actually has a higher specific activity than the low-enriched uranium fuel of these molten salt reactors, which means that the effects would be negligible, because you launch it cold, and when it gets into space is where you actually activate this reactor.

So I'm really excited. I think that I've designed this reactor here that can be an innovative source of energy, provide power for all kinds of neat scientific applications, and I'm really prepared to do this. I graduated high school in May, and -- (Laughter) (Applause) — I graduated high school in May, and I decided that I was going to start up a company to commercialize these technologies that I've developed, these revolutionary detectors for scanning cargo containers and these systems to produce medical isotopes, but I want to do this, and I've slowly been building up a team of some of the most incredible people I've ever had the chance to work with, and I'm really prepared to make this a reality. And I think, I think, that looking at the technology, this will be cheaper than or the same price as natural gas, and you don't have to refuel it for 30 years, which is an advantage for the developing world.

And I'll just say one more maybe philosophical thing to end with, which is weird for a scientist. But I think there's something really poetic about using nuclear power to propel us to the stars, because the stars are giant fusion reactors. They're giant nuclear cauldrons in the sky. The energy that I'm able to talk to you today, while it was converted to chemical energy in my food, originally came from a nuclear reaction, and so there's something poetic about, in my opinion, perfecting nuclear fission and using it as a future source of innovative energy.

美天才少年 發明超強小型核反應爐

美國以描述4個加州理工學院天才的宅男生活而備受歡迎的情境喜劇《天才理論傳》(The Big Bang Theory)中,曾經描述劇中天才中的天才謝爾頓‧庫珀(Sheldon Cooper)博士,13歲時試圖在自家後院架設一個核反應爐,為全鎮的居民提供免費的電力。結果在網購高純度鈾時被有關部門盯上,特工前來家訪並告訴他私人持有高純度鈾是非法的。

沒想到現實上真有其事!根據法新社28日加州長堤報導,美國18歲的威爾森(Taylor Wilson)設計出1種小型核子反應爐,未來將能燃燒舊核武廢料,替住宅、工廠甚至太空殖民地提供電力。

威爾森4年前設計出可在自家車庫興建的核融合反應爐,因而聲名大噪,他今天在南加州的TED會議上展現最新成果。他設計出1種能夠產生50到100百萬瓦特電力的小型反應爐,足以為多達10萬戶住宅提供電力。

這種反應爐可透過生產線組裝,使用的燃料是熔化的核武放射性原料。這種相對小型的模組化反應爐可以將燃料封存在裡面,可持續使用30年。威爾森說,「這把舊式的核分裂帶到21世紀。我想這有改變世界的龐大潛力。」威爾森表示,反應爐的燃料是熔鹽,且不需要加壓。「發生意外時,反應爐可能會壞掉,這對電力公司是壞消息,但不會有問題。」

威爾森說,「冷戰時我們建造了巨大的核武火藥庫,我們不再需要這些東西。如果我們能把這些東西物盡其用會很棒,這種反應爐愛死這些東西了。」威爾森設計的反應爐使用氣體而非蒸氣驅動渦輪旋轉,可以在低於一般核子反應爐的溫度下運作,就算有裂痕也不會噴出任何東西。

威爾森打算在2年內打造出反應爐原型,5年上市。威爾森樂觀地說:「它不只能對抗氣候變遷,還能為開發中國家帶來電力。」想像一下,1座小型反應爐裝在打算飛往其他星球的移民火箭上。你不只擁有推進火箭的動力,抵達後也有電力可用。」

威爾森在自己架設的「泰勒的核能站」(Taylor’s Nuke Site)上如此自我介紹,「我的名字是泰勒‧威爾森。我是名青少年核能科學家。我對所有與核能、放射性及導體相關領域的研究感到著迷。我研究的興趣包含應用核能物理與核能發展史。」



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