Gartner 2015 預測重點
- 包含PC、平板電腦、手機、混合裝置2015年全球出貨將達24.54億台，年成長率僅達1.5%。
- 2015 開始平板電腦、PC的都減緩。
- 2015年全球手機出貨預估將成長至19.4億支。
- Gartner預估，2015年包含PC、手機、平板電腦、 Ultramobile （例如平板與筆電2合1裝置）等裝置合計出貨將達24.54億台規模，較去年成長1.5%， Ultramobile 取代PC的購買力。
Gartner下修預估的原因在於美元升值帶來PC零售價格增加，使得西歐、俄羅斯與日本的PC購買動力減退，因而開始造成些微衝擊。因而，從全球裝置的終端支出來看，2015年全球裝置的終端支出金額為6056.33億美元，比起2014年的6419.26億美元，還要衰退5.7%，這是自2010年以來第一次呈現衰退的情況。可見得美元升值的確對於2015年全球裝置造成了衝擊。
整體來說，2015年上半年隨著Windows XP的PC時代結束，對於PC銷售產生負面的影響。然而，最大影響依舊是美元升值。因為雙重因素，使得PC廠商不敢在通路上放太多庫存，預估2015年底將壓低在5%以下，以免突如其來的貨幣兌換損失讓原本毛利就非常微薄的PC產業帶來更大衝擊。
至於平板電腦與混合平板的超行動裝置將於2015年呈現萎縮的情況，預估2015年出貨量為2.15億台，比起2014年2.26億台，年成長率衰退5.3%。其中，單純平板電腦於2015年出貨量為2.07億台，年成長率衰退5.9%。總結來說，2015年平板電腦依舊遇到三大難題，包含新購物者少、產品生命週期長、以及較少創新激發替換需求。所以平板電腦只是錦上添花的裝置，並沒有真正的需要能刺激消費者成為購買必需品。
Gartner認為平板電腦的產品生命週期又必須延長三年至2016年，使得2016年底之前，於成熟國家之中的平板電腦普及率可達50%。
至於手機市場於2015年成長率為3.3%，因為中國大陸市場的需求不再像以前強勁，畢竟，首次購機的群眾變少，且市場逐漸飽和。這使得性能強大的手機廠商愈來愈吃香。此外，中國大陸以外的新興市場對於功能手機需求仍在，除了廠商能夠有效降低智慧型手機的整體成本，否則手機成長將變緩慢。
Gartner：2014年全球PC、平板、手機合計出貨將達到24.19億台
Gartner 2014 預測重點
- 包含PC、平板電腦、手機、混合裝置2014年全球出貨將達24.19億台, 較去年成長6.9%。
- 今年開始平板電腦取代PC的效應將逐漸減緩。
- 2014年全球手機出貨預估將成長至19億支。
- 2014年全球平板將出貨2.7億台，傳統PC為2.76億台。
- Gartner預估，2014年包含PC、手機、平板電腦、 Ultramobile （例如平板與筆電2合1裝置）等裝置合計出貨將達25億台規模，較去年成長6.9%，平板電腦取代PC的現象將逐漸放緩。
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| Only cloud business continue to grow up than PC, NB and Smart Phone |
儘管平板電腦取代PC的現象將減緩，但平板電腦成長及PC出貨衰退下，這兩類裝置出貨差距縮小。2014年全球平板電腦出貨將成長38.6%達到2.7億台左右規模，傳統PC（包含筆電與桌上型電腦）出貨從去年的2.96億台減少至2.76億台，平板電腦與傳統PC僅差約600萬台，Gartner預估明年平板電腦出貨量將達到3.49億台，一舉超越傳統PC的2.63億台
儘管Gartner認為平板電腦取代PC的現象逐漸減緩，但平板電腦持續成長，傳統PC出貨不斷減少下，明年平板電腦出貨將遠遠超越傳統PC。以智慧型手機、平板電腦先後超越傳統PC來看，PC業者勢必得加緊進入兩個市場的腳步。
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| Asia internet users continue to grow and mobile internet also grow much |
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| E-commence in Asia grow a lot |
手機市場成長動能來自迷你旗艦機種，以及高性價比的低階手機。去年Sony、三星、華碩、HTC相繼推出迷你旗艦手機。
從作業系統角度來看各類裝置，2014年Android裝置將出貨11.71億台，其中大多數為手機，Google計劃擴大Android平台至其他裝置市場，蘋果iOS及Mac OS出貨量約為2.86億台，Windows裝置出貨約3.39億台。
Gartner Says Worldwide Traditional PC, Tablet, Ultramobile and Mobile Phone Shipments to Grow 4.2 Percent in 2014
Worldwide combined shipments of devices (PCs, tablets, ultramobiles and mobile phones) are projected to reach 2.4 billion units in 2014, a 4.2 percent increase from 2013 (see Table 1), according to Gartner, Inc.
"2014 will be marked by a relative revival of the global PC market," said Ranjit Atwal, research director at Gartner. After declining 9.5 percent in 2013, the global PC market (desk-based, notebook and premium ultramobile) is on pace to contract only 2.9 percent in 2014.
"Business upgrades from Windows XP and the general business replacement cycle will lessen the downward trend, especially in Western Europe," said Mr. Atwal. "This year, we anticipate nearly 60 million professional PC replacements in mature markets." The traditional PC market (desk-based and notebook) will follow the same downward trend and is on pace to contract 6.7 percent in 2014 and 5.3 percent in 2015.
Table 1
Worldwide Device Shipments by Segment (Thousands of Units)
Device Type
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2013
|
2014
|
2015
|
Traditonal PCs (Desk-Based and Notebook)
|
296,131
|
276,221
|
261,657
|
Ultramobiles, Premium
|
21,517
|
32,251
|
55,032
|
PC Market Total
|
317,648
|
308,472
|
316,689
|
Tablets
|
206,807
|
256,308
|
320,964
|
Mobile Phones
|
1,806,964
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1,862,766
|
1,946,456
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Other Ultramobiles (Hybrid and Clamshell)
|
2,981
|
5,381
|
7,645
|
Total
|
2,334,400
|
2,432,927
|
2,591,753
|
Source: Gartner (June 2014)
Sales of mobile phones are expected to reach 1.9 billion units in 2014, a 3.1 percent increase from 2013. Sales of smartphones, which exceeded those of the rest of the market in 2013, will continue to do well, and Gartner estimates that smartphone sales will represent 88 percent of global mobile phone sales by 2018 — up from 66 percent in 2014.
In the operating system (OS) market, Android and iOS are driving the growth with a 30 percent and 15 percent increase, respectively, in 2014 (see Table 2). "We expect the announcement of the new Apple iPhone 6 will attract pent-up demand for users who want a larger screen," said Annette Zimmermann, research director at Gartner. "Windows phones will exhibit strong growth from a low base in 2014, and are projected to reach a 10 percent market share by 2018 — up from 4 percent in 2014."
Gartner Says Worldwide Server Shipments Market Grew 1.3 Percent in the Second Quarter of 2014 While Revenue Increased 2.8 Percent
In the second quarter of 2014, worldwide server shipments grew 1.3 percent year-over-year, while revenue moved upward 2.8 percent from the second quarter of 2013, according to Gartner, Inc.
"The second quarter of 2014 produced relatively weak growth on a global level, with mixed results by platform," said Jeffrey Hewitt, research vice president at Gartner. "All regions showed growth in both shipments and vendor revenue except for Eastern Europe, Japan and Latin America.”
Eastern Europe fell 5.6 percent in units and 1.6 percent in vendor revenue; Japan declined 4.3 percent in units and 2.5 percent in vendor revenue; and Latin America dropped 16.5 percent in units but managed to produce a vendor revenue increase of 6.7 percent for the quarter, highest among all regions. The platform mix by region and geographic variations in economic conditions are the main reasons for these results. Overall, Middle East and Africa posted the highest shipment growth with a 6 percent increase, while Asia/Pacific, North America and EMEA grew by 5 percent, 1.6 percent and 0.8 percent in the second quarter.
"x86 servers managed to produce an increase of 1.4 percent in units in the second quarter of 2014, and an 8.1 percent increase in revenue. RISC/Itanium Unix servers fell globally for the period, a 23.2 percent decline in revenue and 7.9 percent decrease in shipments compared with the same quarter last year. The 'other' CPU category, which is primarily mainframes, showed a decline in vendor revenue of 2.2 percent," Mr. Hewitt said.
HP was the worldwide server market leader, based on revenue in the second quarter of 2014 (see Table 1). The company posted nearly $3.2 billion in server revenue to account for 25.1 percent of worldwide server revenue.
In server shipments, HP remained the worldwide leader in the second quarter of 2014 (see Table 2). HP's worldwide server shipments declined 2.9 percent, as shipments totaled nearly 570,000 units. Dell, the No. 2 vendor based on shipments, had a unit decline of 11.4 percent.
In terms of server form factors, blade servers fell 4.3 percent in shipments but rose 7.2 percent in revenue for the quarter. The rack-optimized form factor climbed 2.9 percent in shipments and 3.6 percent in revenue in the second quarter of 2014.
PC Growth in Mature Markets Was Offset by a Decline in Emerging Markets
Worldwide PC shipments reached 79.4 million units in the third quarter of 2014, a 0.5 percent decline from the third quarter of last year, according to preliminary results by Gartner, Inc.
“Growth in the mature markets was offset by a decline in shipments in emerging markets, similar to what was seen in the second quarter of 2014,” said Mikako Kitagawa, principal analyst at Gartner. “Positive results in Western Europe and North America can be a sign of gradual recovery for the PC industry.
“Consumers’ attention is slowly going back to PC purchases as tablet adoption peaked with mainstream consumers. The transition from PCs to tablets has faded as tablet penetration has reached the 40-50 percent range.” In contrast, weakness in the emerging market reflects the saturation in selected consumer segments where they can afford PCs. In the meantime, consumers who don’t have PCs will likely buy low priced tablet. This is a one of the major reasons for the slow growth in PC shipments in the emerging market.”
For the first time, the sum of the top five vendors' share reached two-thirds of the worldwide PC shipments. All top 5 vendors showed stronger growth compared to the industry average. Scale is one important success criterion for vendors to survive in the PC market. Some vendors have already scaled back or have withdrawn from the PC business — namely, Sony and Samsung — and in 3Q14 Toshiba also announced plans to restructure its PC division.
Lenovo extended its position as the worldwide leader in PC shipments, as it accounted for 19.8 percent of the market in the third quarter of 2014 (see Table 1). Lenovo did especially well in EMEA as it achieved more than 40 percent growth over the third quarter last year. It also had year-over-year growth in Asia/Pacific, despite the region showing a decline overall.
While its overall growth rate slightly declined in PC shipments, HP was able to post single-digit growth to maintain the No. 2 position worldwide. HP was the No. 1 vendor in EMEA and the U.S. While HP announced its intention to split the company into two companies, the impact to the PC business operation should not be significant. Dell had another strong quarter, and the results indicate that Dell’s commitment and investment into the PC market has been consistent since it went private.
In the U.S. market, PC shipments totaled 16.6 million units in the third quarter of 2014, a 4.2 percent increase from the same period last year. This was the third quarter in a row with positive shipment growth.
“Consumers’ wallets were gradually coming back to PCs, although back to school sales season was not exceptional,” Ms. Kitagawa said. “More availability of affordable touch-based laptops, price drops of thin and light laptops, and 2 in 1 hybrid laptops will attract consumers this holiday season.”
HP maintained the No. 1 position in the U.S. market accounting for 27.8 percent of PC shipments in the third quarter of 2014 (see Table 2). Dell increased its share to 24.1 percent, followed by Apple with an estimated 14.3 percent share of PC shipments in the U.S.
PC shipments in EMEA totaled 24 million units in the third quarter of 2014, a 9.6 percent increase from the same period last year (see Table 3). After two years of declining quarterly market share, the EMEA PC market has recorded growth every quarter since the start of 2014.
“The continued growth in the EMEA PC market reflects the end of official support for Windows XP and the need to replace older PCs,” said Ranjit Atwal, research director at Gartner. “Consumer demand has also improved. We’ve witnessed lower notebook prices and promotional offers on two-in-one hybrid devices attracting buyers back. Many tablet early-adopters are considering a hybrid two-in-one product as a viable alternative to a replacement tablet.”
HP retained the No. 1 position overall in EMEA due to better results in the professional PC segment, but the gap is tightening between HP and Lenovo (see Table 3). Lenovo held the No.2 spot with continued strong performance in the consumer PC segment, marking nine consecutive quarters of double-digit growth. In the third quarter of 2014, Lenovo recorded a 45 percent increase in shipments year-on-year.
In Asia/Pacific, PC shipments surpassed 26.2 million units in the third quarter of 2014, a 5.3 percent decline from the third quarter of 2013. The market remained challenging, especially in China where the PC purchasing appetite has slowed due to more pragmatic consumer and government IT spending. Business desk-based PC demand has been steady, suggesting a continuing replacement cycle due to the end of Windows XP support.
These results are preliminary. Final statistics will be available soon to clients of Gartner's PC Quarterly Statistics Worldwide by Region program. This program offers a comprehensive and timely picture of the worldwide PC market, allowing product planning, distribution, marketing and sales organizations to keep abreast of key issues and their future implications around the globe.
Gartner Says Worldwide IT Spending on Pace to Grow 2.1 Percent in 2014
Worldwide IT spending is on pace to total $3.7 trillion in 2014, a 2.1 percent increase from last year, however, this grow rate is down from earlier projections of 3.2 percent growth, according to the latest forecast by Gartner, Inc. (see Table 1). The slower outlook for 2014 is attributed to a reduction in growth expectations for devices, data center systems and to some extent IT services.
“Price pressure based on increased competition, lack of product differentiation and the increased availability of viable alternative solutions has had a dampening effect on the short term IT spending outlook,” said Richard Gordon, managing vice president at Gartner. “However, 2015 through 2018 will see a return to ‘normal’ spending growth levels as pricing and purchasing styles reach a new equilibrium. IT is entering its third phase of development, moving from a focus on technology and processes in the past to a focus in the future on new business models enabled by digitalization.”
The Gartner Worldwide IT Spending Forecast is the leading indicator of major technology trends across the hardware, software, IT services and telecom markets. For more than a decade, global IT and business executives have been using these highly anticipated quarterly reports to recognize market opportunities and challenges, and base their critical business decisions on proven methodologies rather than guesswork.
The devices market (including PCs, ultramobiles, mobile phones, tablets and printers) is forecast to grow in 2014, but not as much as predicted in the previous quarter’s forecast, reaching $685 billion, a 1.2 percent increase from 2013. This is due to lower price points expected across mobile phones and tablets. As tablet penetration reaches 50 percent in U.S. households, sales of high-end tablets will decrease, with the next wave of adopters more attracted to lower priced utility tablets. The result is the mix of tablets shifting from basic tablets to utility tablets resulting in lower price points.
Data center systems spending is projected to reach $140 billion in 2014, a 0.4 percent increase from 2013. Constrained spending levels continue to negatively impact the revenue opportunity for data center systems, particularly with external controller-based (ECB) storage. ECB storage spending is suffering from the combined effects of underutilized systems in the installed base, as well as lower-cost alternative architectures and cloud-based storage. The server market also shows weakness as enterprises migrate away from high-cost platforms toward lower-cost alternatives. The hyperscale segment, primarily driven by consumer-oriented services, does provide some positive drivers to the market, albeit for very low-cost platforms, which further impacts overall spending levels on data center systems.
IT services is forecast to total $967 billion in 2014, up 3.8 percent from 2013. Following weak vendor performance in 2013 across multiple geographies and segments, modestly improved spending is expected through 2014. IT outsourcing is growing slower than expected as sharply reduced pricing by the largest vendors is impacting the cloud storage services market. In addition, public cloud services are proving increasingly cannibalistic to more traditional data center outsourcing services. Implementation services are also growing slower than expected as risk-averse buyers remain focused on smaller, safer projects and some of the largest sellers remain focused on maintaining margins over growing revenue.
In the enterprise software market, spending is on pace to total $321 billion, a 6.9 percent increase from 2013. Slightly increased growth expectations for infrastructure software are balanced out by slightly lower growth expected for applications software. Within infrastructure, the database management system (DBMS) software market is expected to have strong growth as DBMS adoption is driven by big data and digitalization initiatives. Slower growth is expected in the applications market, specifically office suites and digital content creation (DCC), which are being impacted by slow PC sales and the rapid move to cloud-based offerings by many organizations and professionals.
Telecom services spending is projected to grow 0.7 percent in 2014, with spending reaching $1,635 trillion. Voice average revenue per user (ARPU) will decline by about 10 percent annually through 2018 because of a decline in consumer use of voice services — particularly among prepaid users. “Increased competition between communication services providers is leading to price competition,” said Mr. Gordon. “Emerging low-cost or free/advertisement-subsidized mobile data services and low-cost services from mobile virtual network operators that target less-lucrative segments are impacting ARPU more than initially expected."
沒創新照樣熱賣？iPhone 6s 首波預購額度完售！要買再等一個月
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| iPhone 6s/6s Plus sell very well, woow? |
國外科技媒體 9to5Mac 報導指出，想買新款 iPhone，最早的交貨日也要等到 9 月 29 日； iPhone 6s Plus 現有的備貨早在一週前就被搶購完畢，iPhone 6s 則在前幾天也已被搶光。
蘋果目前尚未給出官方的預購數字，僅表示新機銷量將有希望超過去年 iPhone 6／6 Plus 首賣週末的銷售紀錄；蘋果先前也宣布，消費者對於 iPhone 6s 的反應「非常熱烈」（extremely positive），且預估首賣週末的銷量將有望超過 1000 萬台。（iPhone 6s 首週賣破千萬支？蘋果：這只是小意思）
依照慣例，新 iPhone 銷售一空的所需要的週期更短，而今年的預購於 9 月 12 日開跑，距離正式開賣的時間比以往多了一週的緩衝，代表蘋果可能正準備增加更多庫存，並且藉此提高預購量。
不過如果你仍希望在 9 月 29 日之前拿到新 iPhone，也不是完全不可能。蘋果已經表示，本週五會有更多庫存，想要在第一時間購買的民眾，可以到門市排隊搶購；不過不是每個國家的門市都有貨，蘋果表示，iPhone 6s 僅會在美國免稅州、中國、日本、香港的門市接受購買。
分析
