研調：2020年，物聯網創造1.9兆美元附加價值
國際研究暨顧問機構
Gartner 表示，隨著數位世界的來臨，數位化浪潮將透過物聯網（
Internet of Things ）大幅改變科技市場的樣貌。儘管至2017年，歐洲、中東與非洲地區（EMEA）的IT支出將維持2.2%的年平均成長率，但包括人、物、地點以及系統的物聯網將創造出全新的市場與經濟型態。Gartner預測，物聯網所帶來的經濟附加總值將於2020年達1.9兆美元，且橫跨多種產業。其中率先導入的垂直市場為製造（15%）、醫療照護（15%）與保險（11%）。
Gartner 資深副總裁 Peter Sondergaard 表示，短期內，傳統IT市場的成長速度將不會再進一步增加，因此成長率的提升將來自於非傳統IT市場。雖然IT及電信合併市場將於2015年達到近4兆美元的規模，但至2020年，物聯網供應商所累積創造的營收預期每年將達3,090億美元。其中，半數的活動將為新創事業，而8成將投入於服務領域而非產品。就策略性而言，物聯網實為一個重要市場，其將急速發展且帶動營收及成本效益。
據Gartner表示，物聯網的範圍涵蓋硬體（即「物品」本身）、內嵌式軟體（在物品上執行並提供連網能力的軟體）、連網能力／通訊服務，以及與物品相關的資訊服務（包括根據使用習慣和感測器資料提供的服務）。提供此類硬體與服務的廠商統稱為「物聯網供應商」。
研究顯示，2009年，全球有25億台連網裝置，絕大部分為手機、PC以及平板。而到了2020年，全球將有超過300億台連網裝置，而且種類將更加多樣化（參見其上附圖）。
Sondergaard指出，物聯網將為所有企業組織及全球經濟創造出更大的經濟價值。舉例來說，製造業將受惠於生產數10億台裝置以及更有效率地追蹤原物料與零組件，而得以提升成本效益。在醫療照護方面，年長者專用的智慧拖鞋與其他穿戴式裝置內含感測器，可偵測失足以及各種醫療情況。若發生任何狀況，裝置會透過電子郵件或者簡訊通知醫師，如此可避免跌倒的情況並且省下昂貴的急診費用。另一個例子則是在有提供「按里程付費（pay as you drive, PAYD）」汽車保險的汽車內安裝感測器，將保險費與個人的風險狀況做連結。
Sondergaard表示，物聯網提供專為客戶打造的最佳化解決方案，以及創新的全新商業模式。這將使得公司改變單一定價（blank pricing）的模式，進而提供創造企業和客戶雙贏局面的客制化方案。
將實體與虛擬世界整合的「萬物聯網（Internet of Everything）」以及「力量的連結（Nexus of Forces）」，將帶領企業組織與其資訊長邁向一個兼容並蓄的數位未來。
萬物聯網將於下列三個層次上促使產業重新再造：商業流程、商業模式以及商機。Gartner研究副總裁Hung Le Hong表示，在第一個層次，數位科技不斷提升產品、服務及流程，讓客戶與用戶體驗企業內部運作和合作的方式。大眾仍依照平常的方式作業，但數位化讓用戶們做得更好，或者在業界開發出更好的產品。
當公司將產品及流程數位化之後，產業內就會出現嶄新的業務模式。隨著數位化促使產業於商業模式層次重新再造，Gartner分析師預期將會有更多轉型的變化出現。Le Hong舉例，運動品牌Nike搭配醫療領域的應用推出連網的運動衣及裝備；而Google則於無人駕駛載具領域有不錯表現。Le Hong表示，這些企業組織原本從未涉足其他產業，但現在他們正在塑造全新的自我。
數位再造的第三個層次來自於企業需要以前所未有的速度和靈活性競爭。Gartner稱其為「商機」（business moment）。
Le Hong以喜達屋（Starwood）、希爾頓（Hilton）以及凱悅（Hyatt）等大型連鎖飯店為例。這些公司過去一直在對抗電子商務時代第一波數位商業模式的競爭，如Hotels.com此類網站。然而，目前類似旅遊網站AirBnB的全新數位商業模式正促使這些連鎖飯店必須與數量更龐大的客房競爭。上述客房並不在其他的飯店內，而是在旅客自己的家中。
Le Hong表示，客房的來源和數量每晚皆不相同，形成一種商機層次的競爭。而『商機』可能來自不明地點，但卻越來越無所不在，且商機的產品、時間點和競爭者幾乎從不重複。
物聯網將創造數千萬種全新物品和感測器，全部都會產生即時資料。Gartner研究副總裁Nick Jones也說，資料即金錢。企業將需要巨量資料與儲存技術來蒐集、分析及儲存這麼龐大的資訊。不僅如此，要將資料轉化為金錢，企業和IT主管需要的是決策。因為他們將沒有時間或能力獨自應付所有決策，他們需要電腦運算的協助。電腦可根據資料和知識做出複雜的判斷，且能夠以母語來溝通其決策。想要以數位世界的速度成功，即必須交給電腦處理。
相較於企業一、兩年前的情況，大多數的資訊長在擁抱數位化方面都已有長足進展，但仍有近半數的資訊長表示他們尚未準備接受數位挑戰。
Gartner研究副總裁Dave Aron表示，既然數位化已蘊含在大眾所做的每一件事當中，每家企業都應有屬於自己的數位策略，不能流於平凡。數位化不是一種選項，不是一種附加品，也不是事後的想法。它是全新的現實，需要全方位的數位領袖。
IT in 2020: Internet of things, digital business enthusiasm abounds
The
digitization of business and life will revamp the enterprise vendor pecking order — more like destroy it — create $1.9 trillion in economic value add via the
Internet of things and lead to a digital workforce and smart machines that will replace 1 in 3
knowledge workers.
Welcome to Gartner's view of technology in 2020. The key theme is that every company will be a technology company. And
Gartner research chief Peter Sondergaard went as far to say "every person is becoming a technology company" as the digital industrial economy kicks off.
Technology will be embedded into everything and be invisible. Naturally, this reality will grow data exponentially.
Sondergaard noted that there's a "crisis in IT leadership" as companies navigate
digitization. He told
CIOs that they need to create their company's digital story before the CEO creates roles for chief digital officers and digital strategists.
According to Sondergaard, virtual and physical will merge into one business reality. He said there will be "competing digital titles" as digitization takes hold, but people like chief digital officers will be extinct in 2020. These roles will implement change and then disappear.
The punch line with Sondergaard is that you'll need Gartner's research and services to lead
your company to 2020 and digitization nirvana. Nevertheless, it's hard to argue with Gartner's take. The
Internet of everything will mean companies will compete with a whole new set of players. Knowledge workers will be replaced by smart systems they trained. And tech vendors will face extinction on many fronts because they can't react and innovate fast enough.
Now you can quibble with Gartner's timeline — 2020 may be too soon —but
CIOs should at least be able to see the digitization train coming down the tracks.
Let's look at some of Gartner's 2020 projections and do a reality check.
- 20 percent of computers will learn not just process in 2017. This one doesn't seem like much of a stretch. Watson will be manning call centers in the not too distant future.
- By 2020, one in three knowledge workers will be replaced by enterprise owned smart machines they trained. Again, this prediction makes sense. IT is being automated and people will too.
- The Internet of things will create economic value for all organizations and sectors and create an additional $1.9 trillion for the economy by 2020. I'm a bit skeptical about the timing more than the actual dollar amount. There are multiple technical issues — standards, interoperability — to work through. As for the dollar amount, these predictions really just require a number before a "trillion" to ramp excitement.
- Digital time will go faster than your current IT vendors. Sondergaard said best of breed vendors have emerged because megavendors can't deliver value. This call is a no brainer. Your enterprise vendor today probably won't be in 7 years.
- Two thirds of CIOs expect to change primary suppliers by 2017. I don't question the feeling that CIOs want to toss their vendors. My bet is lock-in will push out that supplier tossing timeline.
- By 2017, 65 percent of data center capacity will be private, down from 80 percent today. Sondergaard's stat highlights the reality — enterprises aren't going cloud happy en masse. The run to the cloud may be slower — due to depreciation and other non-IT issues. It is safe to say that if you bought a server today it's going to be really hard to justify a purchase three years from now.
- Companies will compete across industry borders. Sondergaard said "it's the death of the SIC codes." Think about how IBM and GE compete more and more everyday. UPS is a technology company just like Amazon is. The concept that companies will compete with rivals outside their industries isn't shocking, but in 2020 it's questionable whether every company will be information driven. Are we really going to see furniture companies do furniture as a service models?
- In two years, the combined IT and telecom market will hit almost $4 trillion, or 5 percent of global GDP. A believable statistic — someone has to network the Internet of things.
- By 2020, 30 billion things will be connected as every product more than $100 will be smart. I can see the reasoning as sensors are embedded everywhere. The things projection is largely a guess based on a growth rate. IDC also has its guess.
- 3D printing will revolutionize the supply chain. This one is totally believable and on-demand parts will be critical for both new and mature products.
分析
- 2020 連網裝置將有 300億台，將包括智能手機、平板電腦、智惠型手錶、智惠型眼鏡、電動車及汽車、智惠型家電、智惠型玩具、家用機器人、運輸機器人、工廠機器人，依網際網路成長趨勢，全人類將有 70% ~ 75% 人口連接網際網路；
- 2020 連網裝置將有 60% 以上都是無線通信，許多連網裝置含感測器 (sensor )且運算能力都超越2013之智惠型手機、功耗超級低，橫跨多種產業且運用雲端智能。其中率先導入的垂直市場為製造（15%）、醫療照護（15%）與保險（11%），整體經濟型態及生活型態的改變；
- 先進國家從食、衣、住、行甚致連做夢都連網，智惠型辨視科技讓人們與科技完整結合，讓人類生活型態完全的改變；
+20131222.png)
+20131222.png)
