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Amy J.C. Cuddy; Associate Professor of Business Administration, Hellman Faculty Fellow; Social psychologistAmy Cuddy, Associate Professor at Harvard Business School, uses experimental methods to investigate how people judge each other and themselves. Her research suggests that judgments along two critical trait dimensions – warmth/trustworthiness and competence/power – shape social interactions, determining such outcomes as who gets hired and who doesn’t, when we are more or less likely to take risks, why we admire, envy, or disparage certain people, elect politicians, or even target minority groups for genocide. Cuddy’s recent work focuses on how we embody and express these two traits, linking our body language to our hormone levels, our feelings, and our behavior. Her latest research illuminates how “faking” body postures that convey competence and power (“power posing”) – even for as little as two minutes -- changes our testosterone and cortisol levels, increases our appetite for risk, causes us to perform better in job interviews, and generally configures our brains to cope well in stressful situations. In short, as David Brooks summarized the findings, “If you act powerfully, you will begin to think powerfully.”
The strategic and financial media company, BIA/Kelsey, released a new report today that shows a forecast of revenues in the U.S. mobile advertising industry over the next four years. The forecast shows a growth from $491 million in 2009 to 2.9 billion in 2014.
Millennial Media, a mobile advertising network, filed for an IPO last week. We were waiting for this, as we’d predicted this would happen this year (though we didn’t think it would happen so soon).
How is Millennial Media’s business? Pretty good, actually. Here are the highlights:
The company generated $70 million in revenue in the first nine months of 2011, from just $6.2 million in 2008;
The company has never had a profitable quarter and is still losing money, $4 million for the first nine months of 2011.
It’s pretty big and growing pretty fast: it processed 40 billion ad impressions in December 2011, and impressions are growing fast (see chart); Millennial Media has 16.7% market share according to IDC.
The Business
You’ll almost certainly see plenty of headlines about Millennial “never turning in a profit” throughout its road show. That’s correct. It’s also irrelevant.
Millennial is growing fast and into an enormous market opportunity–mobile advertising. It should not be profitable. Gartner thinks mobile advertising will be a $20.6 billion market by 2015, which may be conservative. That’s the opportunity Millennial is going after.
What’s more, Millennial Media seems to be gaining both market and operating leverage.
Millennial Media’s gross margin, which is roughly the amount it keeps after payments to publishers, improved from 34% to 39% in the first nine months of 2011 compared to the same period in 2010. This is happening as Millennial is growing both advertisers and spending per advertisers, as you can see in the chart at right.
What’s more, Millennial’s losses are narrowing, as you can see in the chart above.
All of this suggests that Millennial is gaining both market leverage–as it gets more established it can keep more of the revenue it generates for publishers–and operating leverage–gaining operational efficiency as it scales up.
The Market
One thing people might be worried about is competition from Apple and Google. We’re not. Here’s why:
Even though Google is much bigger than Millennial (see chart at right, using data aggregated and estimated by Business Insider Intelligence), most of that is on owned-and-operated properties. Google’s AdMob network is bigger than Millennial’s but it is not dominant.
Apple’s online advertising format/network, i Ads, has struggled in the marketplace.
Ad networks are not a winner take all market. On the web, there are a few giants, and many profitable smaller players. There’s no reason why it couldn't be the same on mobile, and Millennial, as the biggest independent player, is well positioned.
THE BOTTOM LINE: Millennial Media looks like a strong business scaling up nicely in an exciting, fast-growing market. It’s kind of a boring business–an ad network, but it seems to be executing well. More importantly, don’t trust the media reports that will inevitably bang on about how Millennial has never been profitable. Yes, that’s true, but it doesn't matter.
為使國內廣告主與廣告業者能清楚掌握國內行動廣告市場現況與發展，資策會FIND於今年上半年特別展開台灣第一次行動廣告市場規模調查，同時也透過業者的觀點預測未來行動廣告行銷市場發展現況。本研究調查母體以資策會創研所推動的「行動服務與行銷SIG( Special Interest Group )」業者為主，輔以國內的App開發業者、行動媒體服務業者和媒體代理商等產業鏈上業者，透過問卷回填以及面訪方式進行。
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