不同於資本市場機器人概念自去年開始持續“高燒”，在7月9日舉辦的中國國際機器人展覽會上，業內人士大多表現得很是冷靜。有與會者對中國證券報記者分析指出，雖然中國日前已經晉升為全球第一大機器人市場，但是所面臨的自主品牌薄弱、核心零部件研發滯后、品認知度與附加值低、低端能過剩等一系列問題卻日益突出。工信部裝備工業司副司長王衛明將此形容為“歷史機遇與困難挑戰並存”，需要從國家部委到地方政府再到微觀企業層面的共同努力加以解決。
“其實在前面的四年，竹子將根在土壤裏延伸了數百平米，中國目前的機器人業仍然處於這種扎根階段。”趙傑指出，整個業只有經過厚積薄發，熬過數年的“三厘米”，中國機器人事業才能在時機成熟之際迅速發展壯大；在可見的數年內，這種業發展的“三厘米”模式將不可跨越，中國機器人事業需要尋找可持續發展的新模式。
全球第一大機器人市場
在中國國際機器人展覽會上，中國機械工業聯合會會長王瑞祥指出，機器人被譽為製造業皇冠上的明珠，其研發、製造和應用已經成為衡量一個國家科技創新和高端製造業水平的標誌。非常可喜的是，近年來中國工業機器人銷售處於快速增長階段，2013年中國已成為全球第一大工業機器人市場。
中國機器人業聯盟與國際機器人聯合會日前通過統計信息交換的方式，第一次實現對中國工業機器人市場較為全面的統計。數據顯示，2013年國內企業在我國銷售工業機器人總量超過9500台，按可比口徑計算銷量較上年增長65.5%；外資企業在華銷售工業機器人總量超過27000台，較上年增長20%。這也就意味，2013年全年，中國市場共銷售工業機器人近37000台，約占全球銷量的五分之一，總銷量超過日本，成為全球第一大工業機器人市場。
“曾經是世界工廠的中國，如今已經發展成為全球機器人市場的最大買家。”王瑞祥分析，“2013年全國工業規模以上企業達到8.1萬戶，主營收入突破20萬億元大關。機器人銷量的持續攀升，明機器人在中國工業中的滲入程度越來越深。”
不少專業人士都看好機器人元年所帶來的業帶動效應。銀河證券相關分析師表示，我國工業機器人銷量增速過60%，大大超出了市場預期。由於全球第三次業轉移、經濟結構調整、人口紅利消失和國家政策大力扶持等因素的驅動，機器人業在行業需求、景氣度和催化劑等多方面將繼續超預期，預計在2020年之前都將保持持續高增長。
齊魯證券相關分析師經過測算認為，2014年以后，中國工業機器人年銷量約為3.5萬套，市場規模達到100億元，考慮到機器人主要應用形式為給製造業做配套，起到輔助和提升能的作用，其帶動業集群的規模將達到800到1000億元。
多重差距給行業潑“冷水”
在看到中國機器人業巨大發展空間的同時，王瑞祥話鋒一轉，指出與國際先進水平相比，中國機器人業目前仍然面臨很多差距與問題。“整體來看，中國機器人業發展速度較慢。人均保有量來看，機器人密度也依然較低。2013年底我國機器人保有量僅為萬分之二十三，還不到世界平均水平的一半。更為可悲的是，從微觀層面看，我國機器人企業的自主核心技術薄弱，關鍵零部件對外依存度較高，應用技術和品都處在摸索階段。銷售市場上，我國品的國際份額還很低，國際品牌在我國市場能夠占到對領先地位。可見，我國品市場認知度、信用度和附加值與國外品牌相比都有較大差距。”
趙傑向中國證券報記者詳細分析了中國工業機器人市場的構成情況。2013年中國機器人市場中，應用於焊接等領域的技術含量更高的多關節機器人几乎被外資所壟斷；國內企業銷售的工業機器人中，坐標型機器人是主要品，占比超過40%，數量超過外資企業在華銷售同類機器人的總量。“這表明，國機器人主要以三軸、四軸為主，仍然處於單價較低的工業機器人狀態，主要應用於對性能要求較低的領域。”
Solidiance亞太區總裁迪埃特分析，在中國機器人市場，外國機器人巨頭處於明顯的壟斷地位，盡管這幾年中國機器人業發展迅速，相關企業奮起直追，但是依然處於弱勢地位。
迪埃特所的“奮起直追”，包括成立合資企業、引進先進技術等多個方面。以上市公司為例，亞威股份將與世界頂級機器人製造商德國Kuka公司控股的Reis公司進行機器人業務合資經營和技術許可合作，Reis許可亞威股份獲得生全系列線性機器人和水平多關節機器人所需要的技術，亞威股份為此支付許可費611.1萬歐元，雙方同意由亞威股份再許可給合資公司以製造及裝配被許可品。
“國內企業應該堅持引資、引智、引技相結合，學研相結合，推動中國機器人業的發展。”王瑞祥表示。
“冷水”還不只這一盆。中金公司相關分析員介紹，正是基於國內機器人業的高增長主要體現在坐標機器人等中低端品，在各地方政府紛紛上馬機器人項目的背景下，各類型企業都想轉型發展機器人業，料想行業中低端能過剩將很快出現。
中國證券報記者在展會上同樣看到了部分企業開始採取價格競爭的方式搶奪市場的做法。以智能代步車為例，由於目前上海、天津等地都有廠家生相關品，製造企業在開拓區域市場時給代理商的價格已經開始越來越出現鬆動跡象。
資本市場輿情戰略研究員李一川指出，機器人項目投入大，周期也相對長，市場需求的增長並不是爆髮式的，短期內如果急速同質化擴張，最後大家都擁堵在業鏈最沒有價值的環節，就會帶來能過剩，使機器人行業陷入與當年光伏業同樣的境地。
沿下游往上尋求突圍
“几乎所有新興業都會經歷野蠻生長、重覆建設和一窩蜂現象。”有專家對中國證券報記者表示，希望能夠經過幾年的實踐，大浪淘沙，讓那些在技術、經濟上具備實力的企業能夠沉澱下來，使我國機器人行業進入良性發展的軌道。
“雖然中國機器人業原始創新能力不足，業生態鏈不完整，行業聚集能力薄弱，但是中國機器人業也擁有四大發展的源動力。”趙傑分析指出，在製造業業結構轉型升級方面，中國人均勞動生率遠遠落后於發達國家；在勞動力成本方面，2013年珠三角製造業企業工資增長9.2%，而2012年僅為7.6%，工資的增長和企業社保繳納的壓力也將帶來機器人業的發展良機；人口老齡化加劇，預計到2022年中國城市製造業工人將減少700萬人，農民工減少1000萬人以上，適齡人口減少也將加速以機器人換人；中國低端勞動密集型製造企業需求巨大，汽車零部件、拋光、打磨、焊接等對人體存在危害的行業都有望逐步實現以機器人換人。
中國機器人業在強敵面前尋求突破的路徑究竟何在呢？銀河證券相關分析師指出，在上中游被壟斷的情況下，從下游往上尋求突破或為一條可行路徑。“業鏈上游方面，國內還沒有能夠提供規模化且性能可靠的減速機等核心部件企業，導致國內機器人成本較高；中游方面，本體等核心技術也被外資品牌所壟斷；只有下游方面，國內系統整合商依靠本土優勢發展迅速。基於此，中國機器人業化模式較為可行的就是從整合起步逐漸向中上游拓展，即分階段實施美國模式(整合)-日本模式(核心技術)-德國模式(分工合作)。”
諮詢機構高工鋰電一高管對中國證券報記者表示，要想突破機器人國化的瓶頸，國機器人企業首先應當認準自己的行業和定位，目前國內很多企業追求大而全，但是機器人行業十分細化，需要專注的精神，國內企業對自身定位的盲目制約它們自身的發展。“實際上，龍頭企業完全可以通過與中小企業長期合作，帶動它們成長，並加強業鏈上下游的匹配與協同。此前，三星和LG都嘗試過這種做法，並取得了很好的成效。”
齊魯證券相關分析師則認為“雲”將成為機器人突圍的重要力量。“基於共享數據的雲控制系統，將基本突破時間和空間的限制，通過機器人間網絡化擴大情景對應庫，增強智能機器人理解決策能力。智能機器人將是中國機器人業發展的必然方向。”
“Tiro is enjoying explosive popularity, especially among foreigners,” said Chin Hun-kook, chief marketing officer of Hanool Robotics Corp, which co-developed the project with four university research institutes. “Chinese, Japanese and other foreign tourists scramble to take pictures of themselves with it.”
For Hanool engineers, Tiro is much more than mindless metal. A couple of years ago, the humanoid was the emcee at a company engineer’s wedding. “It was a fun, very special ceremony,” Chin said. “We input speeches into Tiro with a timeline beforehand and everything went smoothly.”
Tiro and its peers were installed in September 2010 in the presidential museum, visited by a monthly average of 70,000. They help attract more visitors, save costs on manpower, and more importantly are an advertisement of the nation’s cutting-edge technologies that made it a global leader in chips, mobile phones, TVs, display panels, and robotics that combine them all.
Korea is the world’s fourth-largest robot producer behind Japan, Germany and the U.S., controlling about 10 percent of global sales in 2009. Since 2003, the government has been boosting investment and supporting research and development in the nascent industry as one of the 10 next-generation growth engines.
Korea is now more ambitious as the mainstay of the industry is shifting from industrial machines to service robots such as home and office helpmates, robot teachers, surgery arms and other applications in which Korea has a strong potential with its electronics and telecommunications competitiveness.
Last month, the Ministry of Knowledge Economy announced a comprehensive package to promote the fledgling service robotics industry. It will spend 30 billion won ($26.7 million) for their development, commercialization, standardization and marketing over the next seven years.
In June, 11 consortiums of robot manufacturers and research institutions were selected to conduct six-month pilot programs into which the government has injected more than 2.1 billion won. Consortium leaders included Samsung Techwin, Nautilus Hyosung and Future Robot, the Korea Institute of Science and Technology and Kwangwoon University.
Growing market
With the workforce aging and labor costs rising, global sales of service robots are estimated to jump more than 26-fold to $85.5 billion in 2018 from $3.2 billion in 2008, according to the knowledge economy ministry data. The global robot market could reach $190 billion in 2020.
Around 8.7 million service robots were sold globally in 2009, up from some 7 million year-on-year, according to the Frankfurt-based International Federation of Robotics.
Of the total, household robots account for nearly 64 percent and entertainment and teaching robots 35 percent.
The Korean market is estimated at 1.02 trillion won in 2009, up more than 23 percent from 2008, according to the state-run Korea Institute for Robot Industry Advancement. Service robots and component manufacturing sectors are expanding by 40 percent each year, it said in a report.
Despite huge costs and technological limitations, the robotics industry is growing exponentially in line with the emergence of smarter, more human-like inventions with more diverse, specialized applications, the Samsung Economic Research Institute said.
“Service robots will leverage the entire industry’s growth,” the leading think tank said in a recent report. “Opportunities are still open for Korean companies to lead the market.”
One of the leaders in Korea is Nautilus Hyosung, which has gained a reputation for its brainchild, Fantasia Robot, which served as a guide in the lobby of the city hall of Bucheon, Gyeonggi Province until last year.
The 120-centimeter-tall robot allowed visitors to print parking permits and arrange meetings with city officials with a touch on its LED screen.
Fitted with a number of ultrasonic sensors and a laser scanner that detects obstacles, it escorted people to places inside the building.
The kiosk-shaped creation moves up to 50 centimeters per second and runs for eight hours once charged, said Kwon Yong-kwan, the firm’s robot development team chief.
“Fantasia Robot is a mixture of robotics technology and Hyosung’s expertise in financial services solutions,” he said. “It won huge popularity and interest from numerous visitors throughout the period.”
Industrial Robots – Worldwide Trends and Technology
End–User demand for Industrial Robots
In 2012, there was a slight decrease in the sales of robots by 3-4% to 159,346 units primarily due to reduced demand from electrical and electronics sector. However, Electronics is still using large numbers of robots driven by the need for precision, speed and quality. The market here is growing due to the increasing production of personal electronic devices (e.g. mobile phones, ipads etc.). On the contrary, the sales for automotive sector still continue to increase worldwide by 6%.It has been so far the largest end-user segment accounting for almost 50% of the demand. In Germany, robot density (number of robots per 10,000 employees) is 1176 in automotive verses 137 across all other sectors. Though the graph has gone downhill for metal and machinery industry, it’s still on the rise for industries like Chemical and Rubber and Plastics. Due to increased industrialization in emerging economies, there is a huge demand for automation and hence there is a subsequent increase in robot sales. It will continue to grow in the near future when robots will collaborate with workers and their integration in the manufacturing process
Five countries hold 70 percent of the total robot supply in 2012
Advances in Robotic Technology and Applications
Microprocessor, Artificial Intelligence techniques and innovations in Automation and Control systems are among the major technological advancements that have taken place in the past decade. Controller is an integral part of any robotic system and is instrumental in performing the application tasks. A controller with higher processing power will allow more items to be added to the robot controller. Integration into a work cell becomes easier with advancement in controllers. There has been a reduction in the size of controllers and it is a trend that is expected to continue in the robotics industry. It helps robots to be more alert to deal with the rising demand for strong automation and also contributes to the declining cost of robotic systems. It also facilitates robotic safety and hence can be used in non-factory setup without any safety shield.
IRC5 is ABB’s fifth generation robot controller and is the key to robot’s performance in terms of accuracy, speed, cycle-time, programmability and synchronization with external devices.
Introduction of machines which provides the opportunity to tailor the selected robot to the requirements of the application, thereby providing a solution which is cost effective. Highly developed software for robot control ensures outstanding performance and it also makes the installation, operation and maintenance of the robot easier.
Kawasaki Robotics has introduced PC-ROSET, which is PC based simulation software for robots and allows the user to carry out robot teaching anywhere. PC-ROSET outputs accurate cycle time and the teaching data created can be sent to the robot controller for execution. ... continue to Read.
分析
- 由於上升的龐大的消費市場產業化，實現自動化的傾向將繼續增長。中國工業機器人需求持續增加，需求排行是中國、日本、韓國、德國和美國。作為工業機器人，汽車行業和廣大的電氣和電子工業，其次是金屬和機械工業，塑料和化工行業工業需求。因此，製造商推動的生產速度和效率的限制，機器人將在提高生產力，效率發揮典型的一部分，並提高輸出，同時將降低運營成本。
- 機器人需求持續增加，未來工作機會將減少，未來的工作形態將大幅改變。
- 台灣由於製造比重下降，因此，工業機器人需求下降？ 台灣工業機器人需求是台灣製造很重要指標。
