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2015年10月9日 星期五

2015年第 2、3季全球PC出貨量約衰退 11.8%、10.8%，蘋果第三季 iPhone 及 MAC 成長強勁 ( 2015 PC shipment drop a lot on Q2, Q3, but Apple Inc. iPhone and MAC has a stronger shipment )

2015年第二季全球PC出貨量約衰退 9.5% ~ 11.8%

根據市場研究機構Gartner的最新報告指出，2015年第二季全球PC出貨量呈現衰退9.5%，而IDC認為衰退的現象比預期嚴重，預測衰退幅度達到兩位數字的11.8%。兩家研究機構調查結果顯示2015年第二季年成長率非常接近兩位數字，這給PC的未來又再一次壟罩了陰影。

IDC認為2015年第二季全球PC出貨量達到6614萬台。這一數字略低於IDC先前預期。主要原因在於2014年第二季，由於微軟不再支援Windows XP，因而許多消費者在這時間點讓其Windows XP升級至更新版本的系統，帶來較高的PC出貨量，這也造成2015年第二季的PC成長率不佳。

IDC與Gartner一致性的看法則是，美元匯率的增強使得其他貨幣減弱而造成PC平均價格上漲，因而抑制了PC的出貨量。另外一個重要因素是，隨著Windows 10作業系統即將推出，這讓PC市場呈現觀望的氣氛非常濃厚，所以PC通路商傾向清理既有庫存的PC產品，所以沒有向PC廠商進貨，也造成了2015年第二季出貨不如預期。

IDC認為2015年第二季PC出貨量太差並不值得擔憂。因為這一下滑的情況其實符合預期，只要Windows 10上路幾年且美元相對穩定之後，PC市場將趨於平穩。即使如此，2015年下半年PC仍將出現中低個位數比例的出貨量下滑。簡單來說，Windows 10推出的第一年對於PC產業的貢獻不會那麼明顯。

更何況微軟允許原本採購Windows 7和Windows 8.1的個人電腦用戶可以於一年內免費升級至Windows 10作業系統，因此許多用戶很可能就不會在第一年購買新PC，而是直接在舊有的PC上進行升級。到了2016年下半年買氣才會慢慢出籠。

IDC認為全球前五名PC廠商中，只有蘋果是呈現正成長的情況，出貨量達513.6萬台，比起2014年第二季的442.3萬台，年成長率達16.1%。這是因為蘋果不需要參與其他Windows PC廠商的價格戰，只要依循著自己的步調，以及透過蘋果零售商店來吸引用戶即可。

可是，Gartner似乎認為蘋果的麥金塔出貨量沒有突破456萬台，因而被排出在全球前五大PC廠商的行列之中。Gartner認為蘋果於美國PC市場，依舊呈現2.5%的衰退，IDC卻認為有11.9%的正成長。這兩家公司的爭議，或許要等到蘋果真正公布其2015年第二季麥金塔出貨量才能見真章。

PC sales drop sharply again in Q3; Apple, HP, Lenovo gain share

  • IDC estimates global PC shipments fell 10.8% Y/Y in Q3 to nearly 71M units, a drop nearly as large as Q2's 11.8% and above a 9.2% projection. Gartner estimates shipments fell 7.7% to 73.7M.
  • IDC: "Across many regions, the channel remained focused on clearing Windows 8 inventory before a more complete portfolio of models incorporating Windows 10 (NASDAQ:MSFT) and Intel (NASDAQ:INTC) Skylake processors comes on the scene ... Though easing a bit, currency devaluation continued to inhibit PC shipments in the third quarter. While Windows 10 has generally received favorable reviews and raised consumer interest in PCs, many users opted to upgrade existing PCs rather than purchase new hardware."
  • Nonetheless, IDC is "optimistic" about a demand pickup. "While PC shipments will be hampered in the short run by the availability of a free upgrade to Windows 10, the improved PC experience across user segments should drive longer-term demand for new PC hardware..."
  • Likewise, Gartner expects "more stable market conditions" in 2016. It's also pleased the U.S. notebook and "premium ultramobile" segments saw positive growth. Various analysts have reported seeing signs of stabilizing PC demand.
  • The market's four biggest players all grabbed share from smaller firms with less scale. IDC estimates market leader Lenovo's (OTCPK:LNVGY) share rose 130 bps Y/Y to 21%, #2 HP's (NYSE:HPQ) 110 bps to 19.6%, and #3 Dell's 120 bps 14.3%.
  • Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL), aided by 1H15 MacBook refreshes, came in at #4 with a 7.5% share, up 60 bps (revenue share is likely closer to 15%). A 4K 21.5" iMac is reportedly launching next week.

蘋果第三季 iPhone 及 MAC 成長強勁

Today Apple released their earnings for Q3 of fiscal year 2015, which ended June 27th. In what seems to be a never-ending sequence of records, once again, Apple posted a record third quarter. Revenue for the quarter came in at $49.6 billion, up 33% from a year ago. Gross margin was $19.7 billion, also up 33% from Q3 2014. Operating income was up almost 37% to $14.1 billion, and net income was $10.7 billion for the quarter, a gain of 37.8% year-over-year. Earnings per share was $1.85, up from $1.28 in Q3 2014.

Apple’s iPhone business has been the primary factor in these record breaking quarters, and the iPhone 6 and 6+ sales continued to be strong. For the quarter, Apple sold 47.5 million iPhones, which is a gain of 35% in units. Even more impressive is that these 35% more units resulted in 59% more revenue, with iPhone sales totalling $31.4 billion for this quarter alone.

Mac sales have also been strong, and while Apple has generally outpaced the PC market in sales growth for a while, Apple saw an additional 5% in Mac unit sales for Q4 compared to Q3, and 9% from a year ago. This is at a time where the rest of the PC market is contracting, so Mac sales were an impressive 4.8 million units, with revenue of just over $6 billion for the quarter. The resurgence of the Mac has been quite the rise, with Mac revenue being eclipsed quite a bit by the iPad not very long ago. Times have changed though and Apple’s PC business is currently the only one that has seen an increase in sales according to the reports floated around in the last couple of weeks.

iPad sales though are not so rosy. The iPad sales were very strong, and while sales are not exactly terrible, the number of units being sold has been dropping for some time. Much debate has been about why this is, but certainly owners of the iPad have not felt the need to refresh their devices anywhere nearly as quickly as phones. For the quarter, there were 10.9 million iPads sold, which resulted in revenue of $4.5 billion. The number of units sold is down 13% from Q2, and down 18% year-over year.

Services, which include iTunes sales, AppleCare, Apple Pay, and will include Apple Music in the future, saw a nice jump as well with just over $5 billion in revenue for the quarter. This is up 1% from last quarter, and up 12% from last year.

“Other Products” which is Apple TV, Apple Watch, Beats, iPods, and accessories had a big quarter, and while individual numbers were not announced, it is likely due to initial sales of the Apple Watch which came out in the quarter. For Q3, this group had sales of $2.6 billion, up 56% from last quarter and up 49% year-over-year. Likely most of the increase can be attributed to the Watch, but without knowing average selling price, it would be pretty difficult to try and extrapolate unit sales without more information.

This pipeline post is quite a bit shorter than the Microsoft earnings, but for all of the right reasons. There is less to say when things are going as well as they are for Apple right now. iPhone sales are still a huge part of their balance sheet, and seem to have no sign of slowing down. People obviously wanted a larger iPhone and sales have skyrocketed since the iPhone 6 and 6+ were launched. But I think we were all expecting this based on past performance. I think what is most interesting is how much of the PC market Apple has managed to chip away with Mac sales, which are up an amazing 9% when the rest of the market contracted.
For Q4, Apple is expecting revenue of $49 to $51 billion, with a gross margin of 38.5 to 39.5%.

蘋果雲端儲存服務也是領先群雄

蘋果 (Apple)(AAPL-US) 在眾多科技領域中，都維持領先地位。一份由 Strategy Analytics 所做的調查顯示，在雲端媒體服務，蘋果也是美國榜首， iCloud 及 iTunes Match 市占達 27%，遙遙領先其他競爭者。


分析

  • 從蘋果第三季 iPhone 及 MAC 成長強勁，很明顯蘋果是大勝，基本上蘋果以流行性、方便性及實用性打敗競爭對手；
  • 從蘋果策略上，使用過蘋果以方便性及實用性，其實會覺得 PC 確實難用又沒效率；
  • 分析發現，若 MAC 還存在 Window 雙模 OS 機種，將對 PC 更大衝擊；

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2014年6月23日 星期一

如果, 蘋果 iWatch ( 智慧型手錶 ) 成為穿載主流之影響 - 將啟動物聯網裝置、智慧型穿載之普及 ( If Apple iWatch (smart watches) are set to become the mainstream of the wearable - It will start to make inference to IOT devices, smart wearable )

iWatch - Apple aiming for October smart watch launch

Apple has been rumored to be working on its "iWatch" smart watch since late 2012, but the company has begun accelerating work on the project as it tries to expand its family of mobile devices to the wrist. Apple has already started work on trademarking the name in a number of countries in preparation for a late 2014 launch, perhaps in October, with the device entering mass production in July.

Because we don't yet know what an Apple iWatch will look like, the photos we've included in the roundup are either mockups or existing non-Apple products. For example, the red watch at the top of the page is the Lunatik iPod nano watch.

Recent reports from reputable sources like Reuters and The Wall Street Journal have pointed towards multiple screen sizes for the iWatch, in sizes up to 2.5 inches diagonally, a which is the size of the current-generation iPod nano. The iWatch face, said to be slightly rectangular, may protrude slightly from a band to create an arch shape on the wrist.

Along with multiple sizes, the iWatch may be available at several different price points, suggesting an array of different band and face options in various materials to position it as a fashion accessory.

Though we don't know exactly what the iWatch will look like, it is expected to include a durable sapphire crystal display, produced in collaboration with Apple partner GT Advanced. Apple and GT Advanced recently signed a deal that will see the latter producing large quantities of sapphire crystal for use in various Apple products.

While the iWatch will perform some tasks independently, it will be dependent on a compatible iOS device for functions like receiving messages, voice calls, and notifications. It is also expected to feature wireless charging capabilities, advanced mapping abilities, and possibly NFC integration.

Along with serving as a companion device to the iPhone and iPad, the iWatch will be able to measure multiple different health-related metrics like steps taken, calories burned, sleep quality, heart rate, and more. The iWatch is said to include 10 different sensors to track health and fitness, providing an overall picture of health and making the health-tracking experience more accessible to the general public.

Apple has reportedly designed iOS 8 with the iWatch in mind, and the two are said to be heavily reliant on one another. The iWatch will likely take advantage of the "Health" app introduced with iOS 8, which may display all of the health-related information gathered by the watch.  ... Continue to Read.

蘋果iWatch 傳廣達代工

根據據華爾街日報指出，外傳蘋果智慧手表今秋可望亮相，具有多款不同螢幕尺寸的機種，並且內建逾10種感測器，可追蹤用戶保健資訊。
10 sensors smart watch

　另外路透則是指出，據悉蘋果智慧手表（iWatch）是由台廠廣達代工，預計自7月開始試產，最快10月推出。初估年底前出貨1,000萬到1,500萬支。

　隨著蘋果首款智慧手表上市時間日漸逼近，各方消息亦紛紛出籠。匿名人士指出，蘋果智慧手表內建2.5吋螢幕，採觸控介面，形狀略呈長方形，手表表面在表帶上稍微凸起，形成一個弧度，該手表並具備無線充電功能。

　消息指出，量產於7月展開，推出時間最快為10月，蘋果預期開賣首年出貨量達5,000萬支，不過通常這類初估數據仍有調整空間。廣達為該款手表的主要製造商，負責至少7成的最後組裝工作。廣達長期為蘋果Mac電腦的代工廠。

　來自零件供應商的消息指出，智慧手表今年底以前出貨量預估達1,000萬到1,500萬支之間。

　知情人士表示，蘋果規劃不同螢幕尺寸的智慧手表機種。在啟動量產之前，智慧手表的確切規格仍進行最後的定案。

　另有不具名人士透露，樂金顯示器（LG Display）為蘋果智慧手表首批的獨家面板供應商。此外，手表內可偵測使用者脈搏的感測器，由新加坡影像和感測器廠商Heptagon提供。

　目前蘋果、廣達、Heptagon皆不願對此回應。

　據聞該款手表內建逾10種感測器，可追蹤用戶的健康和健身情況。消息人士指出，由於消費者批評市面上的智慧手表功能與一般智慧手機沒有太大差異，促使蘋果致力提升該款手表功，以力戰谷歌和三星等廠商推出的穿戴裝置。

　蘋果上月推出1款名為Health的新應用程式，顯示該公司布局保健和健身資料追蹤市場的企圖心。由於Health程式可將使用者的健身和健康資訊全部彙集至一處，但蘋果卻尚未推出可彙集此類數據的裝置，更加深外界對iWatch即將推出的預測 ... 持續閱讀

分析

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2014年2月4日 星期二

從Apple, Microsoft, Google, Amazon 營收獲利方向看，微軟如何增加市場占有率及利潤？( How can Microsoft increase its market share and business from revenue and profit comparison? )

Where does Microsoft make money? (Updated 2013)

introduction

As in past years, all information in this report is taken from Microsoft’s publicly available 2013 10-K filing. Numbers may vary from past reports. When Microsoft moves products between revenue categories, they retroactively adjust the totals for past years so that year-to-year comparisons are accurate. This article uses 2011 and 2012 values as calculated in the 2013 report. All values are in USD.

If you’ve read my past reports, feel free to skip down to the charts. If this is your first time here, let me provide a quick explanation of how Microsoft breaks down its earnings.

microsoft 2013 earnings

Microsoft remained highly profitable in 2013, with solid year-over-year growth in both revenue and operating income.

The Business (Office) division brings in significantly more money than the Windows division (+30% revenue, +70% profit). In fact, nearly half of Microsoft’s 2013 profits came from the Business division alone.

For the first time ever (to my knowledge), the Windows division was actually 3rd in revenue in 2013, behind both Business and Server/Tools. If trends from the past four years continue in 2014, Server and Tools will pass Windows in not just revenue, but profitability as well.

Regardless of division, the vast majority of Microsoft’s profits come from business and OEM sales. Consumer-centric divisions (including XBox, Windows Phone, Bing) are largely irrelevant from a profit standpoint.

Just for fun: in 2012, Apple pulled in double the revenue of Microsoft ($156 billion USD and $74 billion, respectively). Source 1, Source 2.

overview

Microsoft is unique among tech companies for reporting detailed information by product line. Their competitors do not provide such a detailed breakdown; Apple, most notably, is organized around “functional” divisions rather than “product” divisions, making direct financial comparisons between Apple product lines and Microsoft product lines difficult.

This year, Microsoft announced a company-wide reorganization plan that would bring them closer to Apple’s structure. Many (myself included) have doubts about this resulting in meaningful changes to Microsoft’s overall structure and performance, but there is one area the reorganization is almost certain to impact: financial reporting. Sadly, this means that 2013 may be the last year I am able to provide detailed earnings charts by product division.

There are many theoretical benefits to organizing a company by “function” instead of “products.” One benefit is reduced infighting between product groups, a known problem for Microsoft. Another benefit is the ability to hide losses due to underperforming products. Microsoft had its share of those in the past year, most notably its billion-dollar loss on the Surface RT line of tablets, the impact of which can be seen in the charts below.

microsoft total revenue and operating income (june 2012 – june 2013)

Total Revenue: $77,849,000,000
Operating Income: $26,764,000,000

Total Revenue is the total amount of money Microsoft takes in from normal business operations.

Operating Income is calculated as “Operating Revenue – Operating Expenses”. In other words, Operating Income is the profit made from normal business operations. (A more detailed definition is available from Investopedia: “Operating income would not include items such as investments in other firms, taxes or interest expenses. In addition, nonrecurring items such as cash paid for a lawsuit settlement are often not included. Operating income is required to calculate operating margin, which describes a company’s operating efficiency.”)

Operating Income is particularly important when looking at a company like Microsoft. Certain Microsoft divisions take in a great deal of money, but they also require much higher costs to operate. Thus it is relevant to look at not just how much money a certain division brings in, but at how efficiently that division generates its revenue.

microsoft revenue and operating income by division (june 2012 – 2013)

Microsoft products (and earnings) are divided into five divisions: Windows, Microsoft Business, Server and Tools, Entertainment and Devices, and Online Services. The types of products and services provided by each segment are as follows.

  • Windows – Windows operating system, Windows-related web services (including Outlook.com and SkyDrive), Surface RT and Pro devices, and Microsoft PC hardware products. 65% of Windows Division revenue comes from OEM sales of Windows.
  • Microsoft Business – Microsoft Office (including Office Web Apps and Office 365), Microsoft Exchange, Microsoft SharePoint, Microsoft Lync, Yammer (newly acquired in 2012), Microsoft Office Project and Office Visio, and Microsoft Dynamics ERP and CRM. As you’d expect, 85% of Microsoft Business revenue comes from businesses.
  • Server and Tools – Windows Server operating system, Windows Azure, Microsoft SQL Server, Windows Intune, Windows Embedded, Visual Studio, System Center products, Microsoft Consulting Services, and Premier product support services. 80% of Server and Tools revenue comes from direct product sales via volume licensing, OEMs, and retail packaged products.
  • Entertainment and Devices – Xbox 360 console, games, and accessories (e.g. Kinect), Xbox LIVE, Windows Phone, and Skype.
  • Online Services – Bing, Bing Ads, and MSN.
  • (Note: these divisions are pretty much identical to 2012, with the exception of Microsoft’s $1.2 billion purchase of Yammer and its corresponding addition to the Microsoft Business division.)
微軟上季暴賺近2000億

Xbox、雲端軟體銷售佳 激勵營收創歷史新高

受惠於Xbox、雲端軟體銷售佳帶動，微軟（Microsoft）2014年度第2季（2013年10~12月）營收年增14%，創新高245.2億美元（約7453億元台幣），稅後純益達則年增2.8%至65.6億美元（約1996億元台幣），每股純益0.78美元，均超越預期，激勵周四盤後股價大漲5.5%。

在Xbox One及網路軟體 Azure 和 Office 365 銷售帶動下，微軟上季營運表現優於市場分析師預估營收目標237億美元、每股純益0.69美元。

盤後股價大漲5.5%

微軟財務長胡德（Amy Hood）表示，微軟對上季業績感到滿意，業務中需要改進的領域已經逐漸起色。胡德指的領域，主要是Surface平板電腦銷售。微軟未公布Surface實際銷量，僅表示上季銷售額8.93億美元（約272億元台幣），季增1倍，連2季成長。微軟硬體銷售除Surface平板電腦銷售亮眼外，電玩遊戲機Xbox系列更在聖誕銷售旺季創下佳績。微軟公布，上季Xbox遊戲機銷量達740萬台，其中Xbox One銷量約390萬台、Xbox 360銷量約360萬台。儘管個人電腦（Personal Computer，PC）市場下滑仍小幅衝擊微軟上季業績。微軟表示，針對PC的Windows系統銷售上季減少3%。

企業部門獲利表現佳

胡德稱，大企業對個人電腦的需求狀況優於消費者，此對微軟是有利的，微軟從價格較高企業用PC獲益更多。微軟企業部門上季營收成長9.9%達126.7億美元（約3854億元台幣）；微軟毛利3分之2來自企業端產品。

微軟執行長鮑默（Steve Ballmer）表示，「微軟企業部門持續有優良表現，設備與消費者產品在聖誕銷售旺季期間銷售也有好表現。微軟不斷給用戶帶來高品質體驗的設備與服務方面投資，這讓微軟未來營運更具成長潛力。」微軟儘管端出亮麗業績報告，卻仍然對於鮑默繼任者隻字未提，這也引發市場疑慮。鮑默去年8月宣布，將在12個月內退休。

Google第四季獲利漲三倍，Google 與 Microsoft 收入是不同的

Google公司去年第4季營收優於預期，獲利也大幅成長，主要拜廣告部門表現亮眼之賜。

Google 30日公布，去年第4季營收較一年前成長17%至168.6億美元，優於分析師預期的167.5億美元，淨利則從28.9億美元增至33.8億美元，不計股利等項目的每股盈餘為12.01美元，但不如外界預期的12.2美元。

Google執行長佩吉在法說會中表示：「我們再度以強勁成長的表現為2013年畫下句點。」Google同日宣布將配發沒有投票權的C股作為股利，回應股東的股票分割要求。該股30日盤後躍漲近4%。

Google表示，上季主要受惠於年底假期品牌業者和零售商的強勁需求，國際市場的線上廣告也穩健成長，其中線上廣告付費點擊次數激增31%，但每次點擊的平均收入下滑11%。行動廣告成功拉抬Google的廣告點擊次數，但行動廣告營收通常較低。Google財務長皮切特承諾，完成出售摩托羅拉行動後，將持續發展消費電子硬體部門。摩托行動部門上季營業損失，從一年前的1.52億美元擴大至3.84億美元。

Apple, Microsoft, Google, Amazon 營收獲利方向不同

Ed Bott at ZDNet.com wrote a post with the title: Microsoft, Apple, and Google: where does the money come from? He looked at the quarterly reports of these companies (links to sources in the article) and displayed a pie-chart of the revenue mix for each of them. Inspired by that, I added a fourth company – Amazon (source: 10-K for 2011) – and aggregated those pie-charts into one graphic.

All four are large consumer-oriented technology companies; like millions of customers, I use many of their products and services every day. They each operate with different businesses models:
  • Microsoft: Software
  • Apple: Hardware
  • Google: Advertising
  • Amazon: Retail
Yet as a consumer I rarely think about these differences. All of them use state-of-the-art technologies like cloud-computing and mobile devices to achieve integrated end-to-end experiences geared to increase revenues in personal computing (Microsoft), smart mobile devices (Apple), online search (Google) or shopping (Amazon). And arguably all of them derive major competitive advantage from their software, such as Apple’s iOS which introduced the touch interface.
If Microsoft learn from Steve Jobs about "think different", it will be different and more profitable

Perhaps most surprising is Google’s almost singular reliance on advertising, which makes it a very different business model. They offer all their technology for free – from search to mapping to operating systems and social media – to grow and retain online attention as enabling condition for advertising revenue. For a business this big the near complete dependence on one source of revenue is unusual; perhaps its time for Google’s leadership to seriously consider a diversification strategy? Without it Google is arguably more prone to disruption (such as from Facebook) than the other companies. Speaking of disruption: Apple derives almost 3/4 of its revenue (73%) from iPhone and iPad, neither of which existed 5 years ago. As Ed Bott points out, those two products now drive an astonishing $33.5b revenue per quarter!

To compare the companies by their absolute numbers, here is a bar chart of market capitalization, revenue and profit: (all in billions of Dollars and for Q4 2011, market cap as of 2/3/12)

Market cap of these four companies combined is approaching $ 1 trillion. Much has been written about the differences in market valuations relative to revenue and most importantly profit. The markets undervalue Apple and overvalue Google and Amazon. Let’s compare these dimensions (and number of employees) in the following radar plot:

The plot shows the relative performance of all with the highest in each dimension normalized to 100%. Amazon shows by far the smallest profit in the last quarter. Given it’s retail nature, it’s profit margins have always been smaller; and CEO Jeff Bezos has long emphasized the strategy of investing in future growth at the expense of present profits. Microsoft
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continues to enjoy very solid profit margins in a large, well diversified business. Google has incredible talent and for now is the undisputed king of online advertising. But Apple leads in all three factors, and it achieves 2x Microsoft’s results with less than half the number of employees! Apple’s profit is 1.5 times that of the other three combined! And it makes more than 60% of the profit with less than 20% of the employees. In fact, Apple’s market capitalization is now higher than $10m per employee! It must feel pretty special to be one of them these days…

分析
  • Microsoft 生意在 server 及 business 部門成長越來越大且獲利持續成長，意味 Win 8 功能不完全符合需求及定價過高；
  • 從獲利持續成長看 Microsoft Windows 並沒有這麼負面，最大問題是 Windows OS 過於龐大、未考慮太多使用者之網路應用之需求、許多功能速度緩慢如檔案搜尋等等；
  • 其實只要讓 Microsoft Office 等產品可建立網路應用之content 庫，直接讓 Skydrive 可以存網路搜尋到之content 庫，Office 等產品可直接用，就可以讓 Office 等產品立於不敗之地；
  • 若 Microsoft 可以思考 Steve Jobs 的 “ Think Different ” 及加強server 及 business 等各部門產品之客戶需求了解，應該可以讓 Microsoft 生意在成長許多，不需要一味模仿 Google 及 Apple Inc., 在 Tablet 及 Smart Phone 策略；

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