Journal Of Life: RAY DALIO: 全球去美元化已經開始，時代要改變了? 影響是什麼? (It's Too Late: The Changes Are Coming; What's the impact?)

達利歐示警：全球經濟秩序正重組與美國脫鉤已成趨勢

Some people believe that the tariff disruptions will settle down as more negotiations happen and greater thought is given to how to structure them to work in a sensible way. However, I am now hearing from a large and growing number of people who are having to deal with these issues that it is already too late. For example, many exporters to the United States and importers from other countries that trade with the U.S. are saying they have to greatly reduce their dealings with the United States, recognizing that whatever happens with tariffs, these problems won't go away, and that radically reduced inter-dependencies with the U.S. is a reality that has to be planned for. Most obviously, American producers and investors in China, Chinese producers and investors in China that deal with Americans, American producers and investors in the United States that deal with Chinese, and Chinese producers and investors in United States that deal with Americans must now go about making alternative plans, regardless of what the next round of trade negotiations are like. While this need to minimize U.S. - China interdependence and worry about conflict is now broadly recognized, this view is now becoming more commonly believed by most people in most countries who are dealing with most issues related to trade relations, capital markets relations, geopolitical relations, and military relations with the United States. 有些人認為，隨著更多談判的進行以及對如何合理安排關稅機制的深入思考，關稅糾紛將會逐漸平息。然而，我現在聽到越來越多必須處理這些問題的人說，已經太晚了。例如，許多對美出口商和與美國有貿易往來的其他國家的進口商都表示，他們必須大幅減少與美國的交易，因為他們認識到，無論關稅如何變化，這些問題都不會消失，而且，與美國的相互依賴程度大幅減少是一個必須做好規劃的現實。最明顯的是，無論下一輪貿易談判結果如何，在中國的美國生產商和投資者、在中國與美國人有業務往來的中國生產商和投資者、在美國與中國人有業務往來的美國生產商和投資者以及在美國與美國人有業務往來的中國生產商和投資者現在都必須制定替代計劃。雖然現在人們普遍認識到需要盡量減少美中之間的相互依存和對衝突的擔憂，但這種觀點正越來越被大多數國家的大多數人所接受，他們正在處理與美國有關的大多數貿易關係、資本市場關係、地緣政治關係和軍事關係等問題。

Though not yet fully realized, it is also increasingly being realized that the United States' role as the world's biggest consumer of manufactured goods and greatest producer of debt assets to finance its over-consumption is unsustainable, so assuming that one can sell and lend to the U.S. and get paid back with hard (i.e. not devalued) dollars on their U.S. debt holdings is naive thinking, so other plans have to be made. 儘管尚未完全實現，但人們也越來越意識到，美國作為世界上最大的製成品消費國和最大的債務資產生產國，為其過度消費提供資金，這種地位是不可持續的，因此，認為人們可以向美國出售和借出美國債務，並用硬通貨（即未貶值的）美元償還，這種想法是天真的，所以必須制定其他計劃。

Said more simply, enormous trade and capital imbalances are creating unsustainable conditions and major risks of being cut off, so they must come down -i.e., excessive imbalances + de-globalization = smaller trade and capital imbalances. 更簡單地說，龐大的貿易和資本失衡正在創造不可持續的條件和被切斷的巨大風險，因此必須降低這種失衡——即過度失衡+去全球化=較小的貿易和資本失衡。

More broadly, what I am saying is that, based on many of my indicators, it appears that: 更廣泛地說，我想說的是，根據我的許多指標，情況似乎如下：

We are on the brink of the monetary order, the domestic political and the international world orders breaking down due to unsustainable, bad fundamentals that can be easily seen and measured, 我們正處於貨幣秩序、國內政治和國際世界秩序崩潰的邊緣，而這些崩潰都是由於不可持續的、糟糕的基本面造成的，這些基本面是顯而易見和可以衡量的。
The progression of events leading to these increasing disorders is similar to those that have progressed many times throughout history, so this one looks like a contemporary version of the old story of how monetary, domestic political and social, and international geopolitical orders change, 導致這些日益嚴重的混亂的事件進展與歷史上多次發生的事件相似，因此這次看起來就像是貨幣、國內政治和社會以及國際地緣政治秩序如何變化的古老故事的當代版本，
There is a growing risk that the United States, imposing these challenges to deal with, will increasingly be bypassed by a world of countries that will adapt to these separations from the United States and create new synapses that grow around it, and 一個越來越大的風險是，美國在應對這些挑戰的同時，將越來越被其他一些國家所繞過，這些國家將適應與美國的分離，並在其周圍建立新的聯繫，並且
If these circumstances are managed in the best ways, the outcomes will be much better than if they are managed in the worst ways 如果以最佳方式處理這些情況，結果將比以最壞方式處理要好得多

In my opinion, what would be best is calm, analytical, and coordinated engineering and implementation, with the imbalances and the needs for self-sufficiency treated as shared challenges, to produce the “beautiful" deleveraging s and Balanchine that need to take place. For example, as explained in my new book, How Countries Go Broke: The Big Cycle, there is a "3-Part, 3-Percent Solution" to dealing with the U.S. government debt problem that would lead to much better results than the path that we appear to be on. Unfortunately, thus far we haven’t seen the better ways and have instead seen disturbing fighting and volatility that are teaching lessons that are leading to irreversible bad consequences. 我認為，最好的方法是冷靜、分析和協調的設計和實施，將不平衡和自給自足的需求視為共同的挑戰，以產生需要發生的「美麗」的去槓桿和巴蘭欽。例如，正如我在新書《國家如何破產：大周期》中所解釋的那樣，解決美國政府債務問題有一個“三部分、3%的解決方案”，這將比我們現在所走的道路帶來更好的結果。不幸的是，迄今為止我們還沒有看到更好的解決辦法，相反，我們看到的是令人不安的戰鬥和動盪，這些教訓正在導致不可逆轉的不良後果。

For these reasons, I fear that we are moving beyond the ideal time to be knowledgeable about and properly plan for these big changes in the world order, and believe that investors, policy makers, and other decision-makers need to stop undulating their views and positions in reaction to the day-to-day market moves and policy announcements and instead deal with these big fundamental changes in the world order calmly, intelligently, and, ideally, cooperatively.基於這些原因，我擔心我們已經錯過了了解和妥善規劃世界秩序重大變化的理想時機，並認為投資者、政策制定者和其他決策者需要停止根據日常市場走勢和政策聲明改變自己的觀點和立場，而是應該冷靜、明智地、最好以合作的方式應對世界秩序的這些重大根本性變化。

The views expressed here are my own and not necessarily those of Bridgewater. 這裡表達的觀點是我個人的觀點，不一定是橋水基金的觀點。

去美元化是指各國逐步減少對美元及美國市場的依賴，尋求其他貨幣作為貿易和儲備的替代選擇。這一趨勢在近年來因多種因素而加速，特別是中美貿易戰和美國的經濟政策。

主要原因

美元的武器化：美國政府將美元作為制裁工具，對不符合其利益的國家施加經濟制裁，這使得其他國家對美元的信任度下降，促使它們尋求替代貨幣進行貿易。例如，許多國家開始使用人民幣進行雙邊貿易，以減少對美元的依賴。
貿易戰、關稅戰的影響：美國對中國及其他國家加徵關稅，導致全球貿易環境的不穩定。這種不確定性使得各國重新考慮其貿易策略，並尋求減少對美元的依賴。報導指出，這些關稅政策不僅影響了美國的貿易地位，還促使其他國家加速去美元化的進程。
央行的策略調整：隨著全球經濟的不確定性增加，許多國家的中央銀行開始增加黃金和其他非美元資產的儲備，以分散風險。這一趨勢顯示出對美元的信心正在減弱，並且越來越多的央行計劃在未來增加黃金配置。

為什麼關稅戰反而造成去美元化

關稅戰的影響使得全球貿易格局發生了根本性變化，具體原因包括：

提高貿易成本：關稅的增加使得進口商品價格上升，迫使企業和國家尋找其他貿易夥伴和替代貨幣，從而減少對美元的依賴。這種情況下，國家更傾向於使用本地貨幣或其他貨幣進行貿易結算。
促進區域貿易協定：面對美國的貿易保護主義，許多國家開始加強區域貿易協定的合作，這些協定通常會使用非美元貨幣進行結算。例如，中國和俄羅斯之間的貿易額大幅上升，且大部分以人民幣進行結算，這進一步推動了去美元化的進程。
信任的喪失：美國的貿易政策不穩定性使得其他國家對美元的信任度下降，這促使它們尋求建立獨立於美元的貿易體系。這種情況下，國家更願意探索其他貨幣的使用，以減少對美元的依賴。

總結來說，去美元化的趨勢在中美貿易戰和美國的關稅政策影響下加速發展，未來全球金融格局可能會更加多元化，美元的主導地位面臨挑戰。