Facebook推出新服務及併購公司大幅拉高營收、獲利跳升，將逐漸搶 Google 生意？( Facebook launched new services, significantly raised its revenue and do the acquisition, profits jumped, will gradually grab Google ads business? )

Facebook推出「查看附近好友」功能

Facebook週四發佈了一項名為“附近好友”的功能，允許用戶查看有哪些好友在附近。這也是該公司近一年來首次對核心產品展開重大升級。最近幾個月，Facebook一直將精力著眼於其他品牌，包括流動聊天服務 WhatsApp 和虛擬現實眼罩 Oculus，這兩家公司的收購總價超過 200億美元。該公司還開發了一款名為Paper的新聞閱讀器。

　　儘管Facebook正在努力開發其他資產，但仍需吸引接近10億的流動用戶反複使用核心應用。更何況，它還在流動端面臨著 Snapchat 等年輕社交網絡的猛攻。Facebook雖然陸續推出了話題標籤和趨勢話題等小功能，以及能夠直接覆蓋Android手機主屏的啟動器，但用戶並沒有實現迅速增長。

有了“附近好友”後，Facebook將幫助用戶建立前所未有的直接關係。這項功能可以同時兼容iOS和Android操作系統。與以往一樣，Facebook不會同時面向所有用戶推出，而是會逐步逐批發佈。如果用戶啟動這項功能，便可看到好友所在的城市和社區，以及與自己相距多遠。而且可以直接向好友發送短信或展開通話。不過，這項功能也有局限，必須兩位用戶同時開啟該功能，才能實現理想中的效果。用戶也可以縮小自己的“可見範圍”，只允許選定的好友查看自己的位置。一旦探測到附近有某些好友，系統還可以向用戶發送通知。

　　有趣的是，用戶同樣可以查看哪些好友不在附近，利用“旅行”功能瞭解已經外出遠行的好友動向，從而為對方提供出行建議。又或者，倘若用戶自己不久也將前往同一個地點，便可與對方約好見面時間。

　　圍繞地點開發的功能難免遭遇隱私問題。“附近好友”產品經理安德里亞‧瓦卡里(Andrea Vacarri)表示，這項功能會預設關閉，在得到用戶授權前，也只會顯示大概位置。

　　Facebook表示，該公司尚未考慮對這一功能展開商業化。不過，這項服務的確蘊含著廣告機會。例如，可以允許企業在該功能中推薦見面地點。而該服務本身也存在進一步延伸的空間：例如，可以效仿Tinder的方式，提供基於地理位置的約會功能。瓦卡里表示，他研究過這類應用，但不準備推出這樣的功能。“我們現在的精力都放在用戶體驗上。”他說。

　　這項功能其實源於兩年前，Facebook那時收購了瓦卡里的創業公司Glancee。這家總部位於芝加哥的公司可以幫助用戶通過流動應用尋找周圍有著類似興趣的人。Glancee最終變身為“附近好友”功能。　Facebook 2012年5月收購了Glancee，一個月後又收購了照片分享應用Instagram。幾天后，Facebook便在納斯達克上市。迫於投資者的壓力，Facebook當時正在努力探索流動領域。而如今，Facebook顯然已經掌握了訣竅，該公司上季度有53%的廣告營收來自流動廣告。

Facebook profit soars ( 臉書獲利大增 )

Facebook's growth might be slowing somewhat, but it keeps finding new ways to make money off of its users.The social network reported sales and profits that beat Wall Street's expectations, sending the social network's stock soaring on Wednesday. Shares of Facebook (FB, Fortune 500) were up more than 15% in premarket trading Thursday.

Facebook said its userbase grew to 1.2 billion in the fourth quarter, up 16% from a year earlier. That's still growing, but Facebook is gaining fewer new users than in past quarters. Nevertheless, Facebook reported fourth quarter sales of $2.6 billion, up 63% from the same time last year. Profit at the Menlo Park, Calif., company hit $523 million, up from just $64 million the year prior. Excluding one time items, earnings per share were 31 cents, beating estimates of 27 cents per share, according to analysts polled by Thomson Reuters.

The all-important mobile market was a particular bright spot. The company said 945 million of its 1.2 billion users visit the site via a smartphone or tablet in the fourth quarter. That's up 39% from last year.

As a result, mobile is quickly growing in popularity with advertisers, and Facebook said ad revenue from mobile represented 53% of all ad revenue in the quarter -- up from 23% last year, and up from zero at the time of the company's initial public offering in May of 2011.

"2013 was the year we turned our business into a mobile business," Facebook founder Mark Zuckerberg said on a conference call with analysts and journalists.

Related: What bearish investors are missing about Facebook

Over 90% of Facebook's revenue comes from ad sales, but overall ad revenue also grew sharply, rising 72% from last year. "The results showed a...healthy demand for social-based advertising," analysts at Cantor Fitzgerald wrote in research note. "This was an all around impressive performance."

The company is also building a decent stockplie of cash. Facebook said it had $11.5 billion in cash on hand at the end of the quarter. That's up from $9.3 billion the quarter before, and reflects the proceeds from a big stock sale last month.

In a bid to boost revenue, Facebook said earlier month that video ads will soon begin automatically playing in users' feeds. The company says users tend to more actively engage with videos that are playing. The rollout of this product will be gradual, and it remains to be seen how users will take to it.

The integration of regular ads into news feeds appears to be going well. On the conference call, Facebook CFO David Ebersman said a big reason why ad revenue was up is because the company is getting a higher fee for integrated ads, which tend to attract more interest from consumers.

Last fall the company revealed ads on the popular photo sharing network Instagram, which Facebook bought in 2012. Investors have largely cheered those and other moves, sending Facebook (FB, Fortune 500) stock up nearly 75% over the last year. While overall revenue at the company may still be relatively small, investors feel there is great potential to sell advertising on a platform that reaches one in every six people on the planet.

But the push to offer that targeted advertising has also landed the company in trouble. Earlier this month the Facebook was sued for allegedly mining personal messages sent over the site for information it can sell to advertisers. There have also been lingering questions over whether people are growing bored with the site. Several recent studies have shown that younger audiences are turning away from Facebook, instead using Snapchat and other apps.

行動大獲利 臉書Q1獲利6.42億美元

臉書每月行動活躍用戶數正式突破10億人，總用戶數達到12.76億人

全球最大社群網站臉書23日公布今年第一季財報，獲利達6.42億美元（約台幣194.88億元），另營收大增72%，主要原因是行動裝置用戶及行動廣告增多。臉書顯示自己已由個人電腦成功轉移到行動裝置，23日表示廣告營收相形去年同期大增82%，來到2.27億美元。在其中，行動廣告佔59%；去年同期，行動廣告占比還不到1/3，而上一季占53%。

臉書本季總營收相形去年同期升72%，來到25億美元，而營業獲利則大進步，由去年的2.19億美元，上升到6.42億；換算則為每股獲利25美分，營業獲利跳升到34美分，都輕易超越分析師估計的24美分。

臉書股價23日盤中漲2.8%；盤後的電子股市升到每股63.07美元。

Despite 19% Revenue Growth, Google Q1 Earnings Disappoint Investors

Hurt once again by falling ad prices on smartphones and tablets, Google GOOG -1.47% disappointed investors with first-quarter earnings that came in slightly under expectations.

Google said in its first-quarter earnings release that it earned $6.27 a share before costs such as the sale of its Motorola Mobility unit on gross revenues of $15.4 billion and net revenues of $12.19 billion after subtracting the commissions paid to partners for acquiring Web traffic (known as “ex-TAC”). Analysts polled by Thomson Reuters had expected a profit before certain costs of $6.33 a share on gross revenues of $15.6 billion, or $12.3 billion in net revenues.

Facebook will become a big mobile digital ads company

Investors initially appeared disappointed in the results. In extended trading shortly after the market close, Google’s shares were falling about 6%. They had risen 3.75% on Wednesday, to $556.54.

Google’s ad business repeated a familiar pattern of the past year or so, with the number of clicks on ads rising–by 26% from a year ago–as the cost per click on the ads fell, this time by 9%, a bit less than the fourth quarter’s 11% drop. In other words, the business is still fundamentally sound, but Google still hasn’t shown when it will deliver on consistent promises it has made, including today on a conference call, that mobile ads eventually will be even more lucrative than its ads shown on desktop computers.

超級財報週：蘋果iPad銷售衰退16％，臉書獲利成長近200％

美國時間4月23日，蘋果和臉書同時發布今年1～3月的財報。根據《華爾街日報》報導，蘋果不論是獲利或營收，紛紛超出分析師預期：

	2014年1~3月	2013年1~3月	成長率
營收	456億	436億	4.6％
每股盈餘	11.62	10.09	15.2％
淨收入	102.2	95.5	7％

至於各產品線銷售情況，iPhone依舊持續成長，較去年同期增加16.8％，但iPad卻衰退15.7％，這將是蘋果未來發展的一大隱憂：

	2014年1~3月	2013年1~3月	成長率
iPhone	4370萬支	3740萬支	16.8％
iPad	1635萬台	1940萬台	-15.7％
Mac	410萬台	390萬台	5.1％
iTunes、軟體與服務	45.7億美元	41億美元	11.5％

在公布財報的同時，蘋果也宣布擴大庫藏股計劃，從原先的600億美元，提高為900億美元；此外，今年6月還將進行股票分割計劃，由1股分割為7股。不過，所有投資人最關心的依舊是，今年何時蘋果會推出新產品？

另一方面，臉書在第一季的表現也相當亮眼，儘管面對其他即時通訊軟體的競爭，但是無論是營收和獲利，均有大幅成長：

• 營收達25億美元，較去年同期大幅成長72％。
• 每股盈餘為0.34美元，高於分析師預期的0.24美元。
• 獲利達6.42億美元，較去年同期成長193％。
• 廣告營收達22.7億美元，較去年同期成長82％，佔總營收90％；其中行動廣告營收佔比為59％，較去年同期成長30％。

分析

• Facebook 行動廣告營業獲利大增，可預見之未來 Facebook 與 Google 將相互競爭；
• 行動廣告相關於 Apps 活動，因此 Facebook 大幅使用者將有助於它的營收，而許多公司開始經營 Facebook 粉絲團及相關活動也有助於 Facebook 行動廣告營業獲利成長；
• 『許多社群網站開始賺錢』將是對 Google 廣告產生競爭，這已經確認；日後除了 Google 外將出現第二家可比較國際社群網路 Facebook 其營收大部分來自於廣告收入；
• 台灣廠商須思考什麼樣的產品與 Facebook 合作能創造更新的價值，產生更創意之差異化加值，可以思考 Facebook 之社群海量資料之應用結合；
• Facebook 可思考可擴充之延伸業務，也可以透過併購擴充業務，例如 :
• Facebook 可以併購群眾募資公司，讓營收大增，增加網友經營 Facebook 活動；
• Facebook 可以商用 Facebook 商店，讓許多可訂購 Facebook 相關服務，來爭奪許多品牌之流量帶來之商機；
• Facebook 可以結合海量資料分析公司如 Tableau Software Inc. 產生一些企業需求之收入；

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群眾募資年增率將高達62%募集資金達到60億 - 台灣該思考如何振興新創企業( Crowd-funding Platforms Raised Almost $6B in ’11, Up 62% Y-O-Y )

群眾募資或稱群眾集資、群眾籌資，簡稱眾籌，是透過網路平台展示、宣傳計畫內容、原生設計與創意作品，並與大眾解釋讓此作品量產或實現的計畫。有興趣支持、參與及購買的群眾，可藉由「贊助」的方式，讓此計畫、設計或夢想實現。在一定的時限內，完成事先設定募資的金額目標後即為募資成功，可以開始進行計畫。

一般的群眾募資，將贊助者投入的資金視為捐贈性質的，但對創業者或其他人士而言，這也是一個良好的籌資方式，進而發展出了捐贈性質、債權性質、股權性質數種類型。

台灣最大群眾募資公司是 flyingV，2012年4月開始營運。總集資案件390件，其中185件成功，總集資金額約 6,800萬元.

Crowdfunding Will Make 2013 The Year Of The Gold Rush 2013年是群眾募資的淘金熱

群眾募資增率很高 ( Crowd-funding growth rate is much higher )

While 2012 was an amazing year for crowdfunding, 2013 should outdo it. Here are my half dozen predictions for the year – and why this new form of capital formation will continue to soar. ( 儘管2012是一個了不起的一年crowdfunding ， 2013應該超越它。這裡是我的半打預測年度 - 為什麼這個新的資本形成形式將繼續飆升。)

1. The Global Crowdfunding will double in annual revenue to $6 billion in 2013 ( 2013, 全球Crowdfunding 將在年籌資翻倍至60億 )

Crowdfunding was exploding quietly in 2012 for the non-believers and loudly for the embracers between March 8, 2012 and President’s Obama signing of the JOBS Act into law on April 5, 2012. Some of the largest sites in the world for rewards and donations – Kickstarter, Indiegogo, Grow VC and Rockethub – saw their daily traffic and donation amounts double within a few months. Kickstarter has had its issuers raise a cumulative $200+ million in sales 2008-2011 to reach an addition $145+ million to a total of $345+ million by year end 2012. To give you an example, LendingClub reached $75+ million per month in debt lending as a crowd funding platform in November 2012.  It is the largest U.S. peer-to-peer lender and will hit an additional $1 billion in loans 2013 vis-a-vis the cumulative $1 billion it lent since inception 2007.

2011 群眾募資增率99%, 捐獻占48.2%

The global predictions in 2013 for the debt crowdfunding industry are strong. LendingClub will add almost $1 billion in 2013 to the total of $3 billion reached in 2012. There are 34 additional debt crowdfunding firms growing globally, including Zopa ($400 million since inception) and Prosper ($250 million). The balance of the $1.25 billion will come from donations and rewards-based crowdfunding, which will provide the bulk of growth in 2013 and 2014.

2. The EU will embrace crowdfunding laws ( 歐盟將出來 CrowdFunding 法律 )

Led by the Directorate General for Enterprise and Industry, the EU Commission will have a couple more workshops Q1-3 2013 and create a proposal towards making crowdfunding for equity a legal option by Q4 2013. It will take EU 1,000 days to make such a law legal from the day a proposal is created. My prediction is that the EU is lethargic in pan-European law implementations.

3. Crowdfunding platforms will turn into a commodity ( Crowdfunding 平台將變成商品 )

The 700+ crowd funding sites today will increase to 1,500 by Q2 2013 and quietly contract under the hood to 200 well-financed and revenue-generating sites by Q1 2014. Sites like Crowd Valley with 300 plus private label crowd funding platforms offered free to organizations will start charging for these services. These private label extensions will lead to the growth of more community sites CrowdTilt which allows any site to start group charging and collecting money from several projects and thousands of donors.
using crowd funding but the back end technology will be run by a few dozen leading platforms. In parallel we will see 1,000 more sites using crowd funding with free API technology from firms like

4. MA will not fuel Crowd Funding in 2013, but international expansion will ( 2013年併購並不會刺激人群的資金，群眾募資將往國際擴張 )

群眾募資增率很高, 消費性、IT服務、生技健康、軟體類就占66%

Crowdfunding firms are poorly funded, with few assets to be purchased. The lack of standardized valuations for crowdfunding sites makes 2013 a year where we see growth but M&A will mature to grow fastest in 2014. M&A in 2013 will probably kick up little dust, just as it failed to do in 2012. We have seen some acquisitions but those are more of acquiring the liabilities of running sites and spending more money to drive traffic. Crowdfunding platform assets will not mature in 2013. Crowdfunding has one inherent challenge – a bottomless pit cost requirement to drive traffic to your site. Next year will see a the gold rush: International expansion firms will grab market share and organically grow with innovation being the discernible advantage. Kickstarter launches in the UK, Indiegogo is already in Germany and several other countries. We will see more international expansion by US companies in the field. Meanwhile, more leading international firms, like Crowd Valley and Give2Gether, will push into the US, while Kickstarter and Indiegogo get as much as 30% of their revenue from abroad.

5. Broker-dealers will lead the “Rich Man’s Crowd Funding” strategy ( 經紀交易商將帶領“富人群眾籌資”戰略 )

 群眾募資北美占82%

The smallest broker dealers will consist of crowdfunding for equity players licensed with FINRA that use “Rich Man’s Crowd Funding.”

What’s that? Currently you raise private capital mainly through SEC exemptions. Most common is Regulation D, 506 which allows you to have only 35 non-accredited investors and an unlimited amount of “rich people” allowed to invest.  To be accredited you have to have earned $200,000 ($300k for married couples) the last 2 years or have a net worth over $1 million (and you must exclude the value of your home). Reg D, 506 as we call it, stood for $900 Billion in capital raised in 2011.

The large distribution online promised by crowd funding technology will empower broker dealers to differentiate and use the crowdfunding as a tool for their clients. It was presented to the National Investment Banker Association Spring 2012 and today we have seen recent movements of SoMoLend and CrowdFunder, which signed up with the leading broker dealer Gate Technology whose back end crowd funding platform is run by visionary CEO Vince Molinari. We will see the two to three dozen crowdfunding-for-equity pure plays partner up with broker dealers in Q1 2013 and start pursuing SEC broker-dealer transactions under the Rich Man’s Crowd Funding option, as everyone waits for crowdfunding to become legal.

We predict Crowd Funding for Equities will not become a legal SEC / FINRA regulated program in 2013 but rather by January 2014 because of the byzantine processes required for the SEC and FINRA to interpret the JOBS Act and implement the law. See Obama’s 10 Steps with SEC & FINRA to Legalize US Equity Crowd Funding.

6. By July we will see issuers raise $1 million in capital per week ( 到七月，我們將看到發行人每週將籌集到100萬美元資金 )

By year end we will see a total of 104 startups in 2013 having raised a minimum $1 million through crowd funding in 2013. Crowdfunding will be a generally accepted tool to raise capital and the general public explosion will come in 2014 when corporate America officially embraces it. ( 到今年年底，我們將看到一共有104家創業公司在2013年曾在2013年提出並籌得了一個最低百萬美元群眾集資。 Crowdfunding 將是一個公認的籌集資金工具並在2014年爆炸性公眾性的會，美國企業將正式擁抱它。)

Kickstarter 實況 ( Kickstarter status )

Crowdfunding Platforms Raised Almost $1.5B in ’11, Up 72% Y-O-Y

Crowdfunding platforms (CFPs) raised $1.47 billion in 2011, up 72% from $854 million in 2010, and almost tripling the $530 million raised in 2009, finds massolution in a May 2012 report. The study predicts worldwide funding volume to almost double this year to $2.8 billion, driven by a 300% growth in equity-based (for financial return) and reward-based (for non-financial rewards such as tokens) crowdfunding, with lending-based (75%) and donation-based (50%) funding also to experience solid growth.

The report defines lending-based funding as a crowdfunding model in which funders receive fixed periodic income and expect repayment of the original principal investment.

Number of CFPs Booms

Data from the “Crowdfunding Industry Report” indicates that as of April 2012, there were an estimated 452 crowdfunding platforms active worldwide, forecast to grow to 536 by the end of the year, representing a 60% year-over-year increase. The majority of CFPs are based in North America, with a high concentration also seen in Europe.

The reward-based category is the largest in terms of the number of CFPs, while the lending-based category is the smallest. Basing the analysis on a sample of 143 CFPs, the report determines that the donation-based (50%) and lending-based (41%) categories are growing at a relatively similar pace, though both markedly slower than the reward-based category, which boasts a 79% compound annual growth rate (CAGR). The equity-based category sports the fastest growth rate, at 114%.

Other Findings:

• The total number of crowdfunding campaigns in 2011 reached close to 1.2 million, with almost all occurring in North America (532,000) and Europe (654,000).
• Equity-based crowdfunding platforms produce the largest amount of funds on a per-project basis. 21% of the funds raised by these platforms in 2011 were for projects that drew $250k or more in funding, compared to just 6% for projects that drew less than $10k in total funding. (Note that this is based on a small sample size of 10 CFPs.)
• Donation-based and reward-based crowdfunding platforms draw the lowest levels of funding per project. 63% of the funds raised by these platforms were paid out to projects that drew less than $5k in funding. (This data is based on a sample size of 25.)
• It takes 2.84 weeks on average across all categories (from a sample of 83) to raise the first quarter of the funding goal, and 3.18 weeks on average to raise the last quarter. Lending-based campaigns take about half as much time to complete (4.8 weeks) as equity-based (10 weeks) or donation-based campaigns (10.2 weeks).
• 42% of CFPs (from a sample of 60) charge a transaction fee based on a percentage commission of funds paid out.
• About the Data: The Crowdfunding Industry Report is based in part on an industry survey conducted in Q1 2012 by Crowdsourcing.org, with analyses conducted by Crowdsourcing LLC’s research and advisory business, massolution, and significant research conducted via other reliable sources to complete the profiling of the global crowdfunding industry. The survey received over 170 responses from selected participants from Crowdsourcing.org’s Directory of Crowdfunding Sites, which contained 452 active crowdsourcing platforms at the time the survey was conducted. As the basis for the analyses, 135 submissions were selected from CFPs, based on a determination of being both comprehensive and high-integrity.

分析

• 群眾募資年增率將高達62%募集資金達到60億，台灣應加速將群眾募資與微興櫃結合，讓台灣創業者資金充沛；
• 歐盟將推出群眾募資( CrowdFunding )法律，讓歐盟加速創業企業經濟發展速度；
• 台灣應加速將群眾募資與微興櫃結合，運用地方減稅方案讓台灣新創企業可以
• 由群眾募資至微興櫃
• 由微興櫃至興櫃，再由興櫃成功上市上櫃
• 結合個人減稅鼓勵政策，必能讓台灣再度高成長
• 台灣目前的稅制及台幣匯率遠比東協及大陸優惠稅率高，加入TPP、RECP對台灣經濟成長率幫助不大，更何況許多東協匯率對美元遠比台幣低15%，舊產業回台做出口的生意機率不高，唯有新創企業可以會投資台灣；
• 以台灣現行稅制是很難與東協、大陸拉動台商之優惠稅率競爭，只有靠新創企業及減免未來的稅率如遺產稅、房稅，可以讓 28兆的10%台灣資金投入新創企業；
• 營餘保留加收10%營所稅可以投資『新創企業』可抵減稅方式刺激台灣產業加速升級，讓像 TSMC、聯發科、鴻海每年就可投資 200家中小創新企業及1000個群眾募資案來發展 IOT ( Internet of things )，整上、中、下游加速產業升級；
• 台灣現行稅制對於投資新創公司，有賺錢賣超過 100張、賺超過 600萬都要抽很高稅，造成許多台灣投資新創公司都跑到海外去了，台灣只設子公司，上市才選擇要到台灣、香港及大陸上市，我也搞不懂馬總統真的在亂搞！

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美國石油與頁岩天然氣產能創新高，造成未來2016 ~ 2025 影響 - 俄國財政轉弱、美元轉強、天然氣發電效率上升、電動車產業成新主流 ( U.S. oil and shale gas strong production, causing future impact from 2016 to 2025 )

頁岩氣開採進步 美估2037年不需進口原油

美國頁岩天然氣超有競爭力, 將影響整個
能源使用比重, 甚致將大幅讓美國能源使用
方式改變

美國石油與天然氣探勘井數量年增 80 座，再創新高，根據美國能源資訊署 (EIA) 報告指出，北達科他州與德州油田開採量增加，預估 2037 年美國無再須進口原油。《彭博社》報導，能源資訊署發言人 John Krohn 表示，這是該署在年度能源報告中，「首度」預期對石油進口消費量，可在 23 年後「達到零」。

此份預估報告的難度，在於分析師必須精確算出幾千英呎下，到底容納多少原油、採收技術如何快速進步，以及油價開採是否符合成本。

《FWBP》報導指出，能源顧問 Schork Group Inc 總裁 Stephen Schork 認為，10 年前美國天然氣來源來自進口，「但目前看來用量已可供出口」，在未來幾年內，狀況會如何改變，還有待討論。

根據美國能源資訊署樂觀報告指出，美國國內原油平均日產量 20 年後將增至 1300 萬桶，但若開採技術沒有重大突破，保守預估也會有 1000 萬桶。目前美國石油進口量已從 2006 年的 1300 萬桶，減少至 500 萬桶，一切都得歸功於頁岩氣開採技術大幅進步。

美國頁岩油及頁岩氣對世界之影響越來越大

頁岩油及頁岩氣的廣泛開採和大規模應用,將對現有的以石油和煤炭為主體的能源消費結構帶來巨大衝擊和改變。

美國油消耗下降但美國原油產能增加

　　頁岩油革命正在重新界定全球能源格局,正如國際能源署在最新的《世界能源展望報告》中所說的那樣,美國能源開發具有深遠意義,北美以外地區和整個能源行業都將能夠感受到其影響。隨著非傳統油氣產量的大增,美國能源產量的增長將加速國際石油貿易轉向,對傳統能源生產國以及由此產生的定價機制都會產生壓力。未來我們將一一感受這些變化。

2017年美國將成最大產油國

這麼有競爭力之美國天然氣未來將出口

國際能源署去年11月發布的報告預計,美國將在2017年取代沙特成為全球最大的產油國,該組織還預測美國距離實現能源自給自足的目標已經很近,而這在之前是不可想象的。國際能源署的此番預測與其之前發布的報告形成鮮明對比,此前的報告稱,沙特將保持全球最大產油國地位直至2035年。

　　國際能源署預計,美國石油進口將持續下降,北美將在2030年左右成為石油凈出口地區,而美國將在2035年左右基本實現能源自給自足。“美國目前大約20%的能源需求依靠進口,但以凈進口量計算幾乎達到自給自足的程度,這與其他多數能源進口國呈現的趨勢迥然不同。”

　　這份報告表示,美國到2015年將以較大的優勢超越俄羅斯,成為全球最大的天然氣生產國,到2017年成為全球最大的石油生產國。隨著國內的廉價供應激發工業和發電行業的需求,美國到2035年對天然氣的依賴將超過石油或煤炭。( 註：一旦, 美國石油及天然氣都成為全世界主控者, 蘇俄能源出口將受打擊經濟也受害, 那時蘇俄又要進口許多糧食, 我懷疑俄侵略烏克蘭極可能是一種戰略, 因為蘇俄許多糧食穀物進口來自烏克蘭 )。

未來交通電力時代將因廉價之電力、電池及充電技術而啟動

Elon Musk: The Future Is Fully Electric 

Interviewed at The New York Times's Dealbook Conference today by Andrew Ross Sorkin, who repeatedly questioned Musk, the CEO of Tesla Motors, about three recent fires in Tesla automobiles, Musk largely shrugged off headlines on the accidents as "misleading" and the number as statistically insignificant. He said no Tesla recall is in the near future.

In the more distant future, he had broader predictions.

"I feel confident in predicting the long term that all transport will be electronic," said Musk, who is also founder and CTO of SpaceX, the space rocket company that's contracting with NASA. He paused slightly. "With the ironic exception of rockets."

Musk says the future of the country's ground transportation will be fully electric, powered by efficient batteries, and that "we are going to look back on this era like we do on the steam engine."

"It's quaint," he said. "We should have a few of them around in a museum somewhere, but not drive them."

Whatever happened to flying cars?

"I kind of like the idea of flying cars on the one hand, but it may not be what people want," he said, adding that noise pollution could be an issue--as might interfering with sight-lines of city skylines.

Extending electric transportation to the skies, though, might be possible, and--yes--Musk even has a plan for it.

major blocking issue to e-Car is battery, charging time and cost

"I do think there's a lot of possibility in creating a vertical-takeoff supersonic transport jet. It could come from a startup," Musk said, admitting that if he has another company in the future, "which will happen no time soon," he'd be open to building electric supersonic aircrafts. He even has a design in mind--inspired by the Concorde.

( 註：美國大部份的電力來自於燃燒石油燃料。 那麼需要插電的電動車如何產生效益呢? 如果我們在通用電力公司(General Electric) 現代化的天然氣發電渦輪燃燒， 如果我們在通用電力公司(General Electric) 現代化的天然氣發電渦輪燃燒， 我們會得到百分之六十的能源效率。 如果同樣的能源我們在汽車的內燃機燃燒， 我們只能得到百分之二十的能源效率。 而原因在於，我們在發電廠中可以提供 非常多提升燃料價值的方法。 而原因在於，我們在發電廠中可以提供 非常多提升燃料價值的方法。 而原因在於，我們在發電廠中可以提供 非常多提升燃料價值的方法。 我們還可以將浪費掉的熱能 重新送入蒸氣渦輪並成為二度電力的來源。 重新送入蒸氣渦輪並成為二度電力的來源。 因此，當我們採取了任何降低(能量)傳輸的所有手段， 即便是使用相同來源的燃料，在發電廠產電燃後 用來充電動車，我們都可以得到兩倍以上的好處。 )

Volvo Develops Battery Technology Built Into Body Panels ( 新的節能車蓋念 )

A research project funded by the European Union has developed a revolutionary, lightweight structural energy storage component that could be used in future electrified vehicles.  There were 8 major participants with Imperial College London ICL United Kingdom as project leader. The other participant were: Swedish companies Volvo Car Group, Swerea Sicomp AB, ETC Battery and FuelCells, and Chalmers (Swedish Hybrid Centre), Bundesanstalt für Materialforschung und-prüfung BAM, of Germany, Greek company Inasco,  Cytec Industries also of the United Kingdom, and Nanocyl, of Belgium. Also known as NCYL.

The battery components are moulded from materials consisting of carbon fiber in a polymer resin, nano-structured batteries and super capacitors. Volvo says the result is an eco-friendly and cost effective structure that will substantially cut vehicle weight and volume. In fact, by completely substituting an electric car’s existing components with the new material, overall vehicle weight will be reduced by more than 15 percent.

According to Volvo, reinforced carbon fibers are first sandwiched into laminate layers with the new battery. The laminate is then shaped and cured in an oven to set and harden. The super capacitors are integrated within the component skin. This material can then be used around the vehicle, replacing existing components such as door panels and trunk lids to store and charge energy.

Doors, fenders and trunk lids made of the laminate actually server a dual purpose. They’re lighter and save volume and weight. At the same time they function as electrically powered storage components and have the potential to replace standard batteries currently used in cars. The project promises to make conventional batteries a thing of the past.

Under the hood, Volvo wanted to show that the plenum replacement bar is not only capable of replacing a 12 volt system; it can also save more than 50 percent in weight. This new technology could be applied to both electric and standard cars and used by other manufacturers.

福特與 SunPower 合作，打造太陽能充電原型車

汽車大廠福特近年來在汽車科技上不斷嘗試突破，先前《科技新報》報導福特試驗以光雷達（LiDAR）自動駕駛原型車，在 1 月的 CES 大展上，福特又有創新之舉，與專供高轉換率太陽能電池的 SunPower 合作，推出太陽能充電電動車的原型車。

以往我們常看到各種太陽能車的比賽，但車體都要極度的輕量化，只能塞進一個人，而車頂則要盡量延展，增加受光面積，而變得奇形怪狀，但是福特的 C-MAX Solar Energi 太陽能充電概念原型車，卻是跟一般汽車沒兩樣，只有車頂裝上 SunPower 的 X21 高效能太陽能電池。太陽能轉換率再高，這樣小的面積不也是聊勝於無嗎？

福特想到一個聰明的解決辦法，就是推出聚光車棚，與一般的棚子構造一樣，只不過棚面換成聚光透明材質，因此成本不高，當車子停在聚光車棚底下，車棚能把更大面積的太陽光聚光到較小的車頂太陽能電池上，因此提高了充電效率，而福特還內建自動駕駛系統，讓車子能自動對準陽光聚焦處，如此一來，太陽能充電 6 小時，可以行駛 21 英哩，約 33.8 公里。

Sun energy green car will happen before 2016

C-MAX Solar Energi 是改裝自 C-MAX Energi 插電式油電混合車，因此萬一太陽下山車子又沒電了，還是可靠汽油開回家，但是若未來廣設太陽能充電聚光車棚，停車購物時，就停在聚光車棚底下充電，不僅省油，還沒有電費開支，福特估計，這樣一來，可以減少充電的電力消費高達 75%。

而聚光車棚也比一般充電站更容易推廣，目前電動車面臨充電站不足的困境，但要廣設充電站，則受到許多阻礙，包括商業上的困難，如擁有 12450 座充電站的 ECOtality 於 2013 年 10 月破產，之後由 Car Charging Group 接手，NRG Energy 要廣設充電站的計畫也遇上許多障礙，原本計畫 2013 年底裝設超過 1000 座充電站，結果只裝了 110 座，達成率才 10%。

對汽車大廠來說，缺乏充電站自然打擊電動車的發展，但是充電站有高額的固定投資問題，與電網的連結與收費等等考量，要推動不是一時三刻能辦到，與其等待，不如乾脆跳過這個環節。

納米炭纖素高能蓄電池發展前景看好

    一種采用超微細材料的新型電池，已剛剛問世兩年就受到全球的高度重視，那就是納米碳纖素電池。這種電池采用納米碳管制成纖維，再制相應的編織布，經處理後可制電池的正、負極板。電鋅液為無水有機高分子電解液，能制成容量大、單體電壓高的電池（3.8V），而比能量可達230wh/kg以上。充放電次數1000次至1200次，采用這種碳纖素材料的表面積比可達2000平方米/克,所以納米碳纖素電池體積特別小，只有普通鉛酸電池的1/16，重量是其的1/7—1/10，而比能量是近世出現的锂電池的近兩倍，而且取材方便。

US Dollar Index will surge up due to US energy import decreasing and
deficit decrease

　　納米碳纖素電池體積小、重量輕、能量大，可廣泛應用于微電子學上，外徑為1mm、長度3mm的貼片電池可廣泛應用于電子手表、無線電收音機、電視、電子儀器、通訊、手機BP機上，可替代許多電解電容器，而體積大大縮小。美國近期制成的能放在人體血管裏的超微型馬達，裝上納米碳電池，可疏通人體血管裏的腦血栓。一只微型納米碳電池可做成0．6mm大小，和計算器上的相結合，就成為太陽能儲備電池。可以這樣預計，納米級電池在電子上的應用兩年內可達上萬億美元。 ( 註：目前近量產納米碳纖素電池體積小、重量輕、能量大約鋰離子電池三倍容量，一個 2000 mAh 納米碳纖素電池充電電流可高達 15A ~ 20A，因此最快可在6分鐘充飽，將使電動車超越汽車成為全球最大產業 )

分析

• 美國供給將大增，全面改寫全球天然氣生態，全球最大的天然氣生產國已經由美國取代俄羅斯，這當然主要是受惠於從油頁岩開採天然氣的技術提升。未來，考量到俄國財政嚴重仰賴油氣收入，在石油暴利不再（開採成本高／油價穩定）和天然氣前景堪慮下，並不是理想的投資標的。
• 2014 ~ 2020 電動車、電動巴士將大量普及 - 三種趨勢：奈米碳纖素電池、碳纖素表面電池車體、高速充電技術、高效能現代化天然氣發電，預估能源使用效率將是現在的 2.5 ~ 3 倍，美國極可能成為全球最大電動汽車國；
• 若結合聚光車棚車頂、太陽能電池，太陽能高效能現代化的電動車，預估能源使用效率將是現在的 4 ~ 6 倍；
• 從縮QE至美元進入強勢，2020 可以開始出口能源，進口能源降至最低，美元也將進入超強勢時代，美國的重新富強將再現；
• 2016 ~ 2025 影響 ：俄國財政轉弱、美元轉強、天然氣發電效率上升、電動車產業成新主流；
• 由於奈米碳纖素電池、碳纖素表面電池車體、高速充電技術、更高效能現代化天然氣發電機都將在2016有大突破，台灣應該從半導體到電機科技趕上這一波商機，才是產業升級，它的重要性遠高於FTA及服貿；
• 《Reinventing Fire》（重燃火源）這書指出：這本開拓性的商業書籍指出美國未來40年如何成功地由石油和煤炭轉換成乾淨高效率能源，結合交通運輸業，建築業，工業和電力市場主導型解決方案和同行評審分析綜合報告。它制定了各種方案和競爭策略，為了2050年超出158％的美國無石油，無煤，無核能，三分之一的天然氣和新能源發明的經濟需求。

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