次貸延伸至金融風暴後世界面臨的通縮與蕭條 ( 美債泡沫 )

    如果, 你相信資本主義是趨近大自然界生滅原則不斷重複, 那你將發現泡沫是生物本質, 日本的金融泡沫破滅、亞洲金融風暴、美國網路科技泡沫至美次貸延伸金融泡沫共同性質是資金有一段長時間過度集中移至某金融商品, 然後, 人們與金融操作者像『飛蛾撲火』般追逐至泡沫破滅，進入經濟蕭條與緊縮時期。
    這次美次貸延伸金融泡沫進入經濟蕭條時期，各國持續降低利息發行國債, 所以初期、中期以債券基金與避險之ETF為最佳投資標的，等待利息降至不能再降債券基金套利極低時，必須轉移到值優有固定配息之股票與避險之ETF，在這波全世界發債比賽裡，值得注意的是非常多資金流入債券，債券泡沫雛型逐漸形成，將導致流動性危機，美國政府已經把錢借給企業，一旦大家一起贖回時，問題就會跑到企業端。
    再看看美股線圖，這麼多美國政府利多支持，怎麼連60MA都沒有越過呢？而失業率持續上升也沒有改善，美股指標卻將進入高點，再仔細看美股月線圖，發現那一次泡沫後月線圖沒有五波下修，每次都有，我怎麼還沒看到?  難道它不屬於泡沫？如果它屬於泡沫表示新災難還會在明年發生。

    既然都知道它是反彈，那到底反彈行情如何操作？通常這種反彈短則一個月長可以延伸至五個月，所以，操作理財是一定需要的，通常初期反彈都是利空不跌來振盪走高，反而是反彈結束時是用利多不漲或利多出盡來結束，只要投資於支撐區附近通常不易虧損，各股壓力至再賣出。

From 投資評論2008,2-12月

From 投資評論2008,2-12月

From 投資評論2008,2-12月

From 投資評論2008,2-12月

From 投資評論2008,2-12月

From 投資評論2008,2-12月

From 投資評論2008,2-12月

From 投資評論2008,2-12月

From 投資評論2008/2 ~ 2009

回憶亞洲金融風暴與世界資金振盪

回憶亞洲金融風暴與世界資金振盪方向

  

如果沒有亞洲東南亞股市破線弱點、經濟成長疲軟、匯率確強勢跟美元，就沒有亞洲泰國開始金融風暴(可以由泰國月K下圖得知)。

再看韓國、香港金融風暴結果，資金往美國跑造成美國科技股泡沫終於2000/3大崩盤，今日美國次級信貸問題，造成許多美資一直往亞洲跑，也將造成2007亞洲股市大漲然後大振盪，2008亞洲大崩盤。沒有大資金行情，沒有大崩盤。

等待好點，沒有風險怎麼有可觀利潤！

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• 在1997年10月東南亞金融風暴,由泰國開始,蔓延到全東南亞,接著蔓延到東北亞的日韓,隔年接著蔓延到俄羅斯和巴西阿根廷
  
• 然後, 量子基金在香港戰役戰敗 (主因是中國支持香港, 次因是整體新興市場貨幣 香港, 東歐, 俄羅斯, 巴西阿根廷 其實是一體的)
  
• 在2000年年底,網路股泡沫破裂,演被為將近三年的股市空頭
  

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泰國金融風暴

香港金融風暴

韓國金融風暴

造成美國科技股市非理性上漲與繁榮

臺灣遇到亞洲金融風暴

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這是我 2007/8/4 寫的 但是自己並沒有在 2008 大崩盤中空單賺到特別多錢, 道是在2008/6計算到 美國會用次貸相關之銀行倒閉來將美國問題分攤給全世界, 那時網友一直討論 連動債安全性 100%保本的合約, 2008/3那時非常懷疑連動債與次貸相關, 因為發行銀行支付這麼高利息之抵押資產是甚麼? 為什麼美國相關銀行一直在2007,2008大量發行100%保本連動債? 合約弱點就是發行銀行倒閉或合併時, 100%保本就沒有了.

註1: 雷曼因為操作衍生性金融商品導致得倒閉，其實關聯次貸因素是炒作高油價造成通貨膨脹, 美國調高利率>4.5%, 貸款人無法支付產生大量法拍屋導致銀行資產價值崩盤, 也就是說造成臨界點崩盤, 雷曼資產崩跌.

註2:巴菲特說：「退潮的時候才知道誰沒穿褲子」。

我說: 「將退潮時最好能看出海灘誰最緊張自己褲子不見了」。

我想: 「退潮時最好看好你的衣物, 不要被退潮海水沖走, 當然更不要被“沒穿褲子仔”拿來當前後之遮羞物」。

Monica Love Songs

    Monica Denise Arnold known as Monica, is an American R&B singer, songwriter. She debuted in 1995 under the guidance of Rowdy Records head Dallas Austin and became the youngest recording act to ever have two consecutive chart-topping hits on the U.S. Billboard Top R&B Singles chart.

    I like the song of "break my heart", The lyrics list below:

Hey, yeah...
Hey, yeah, yeah, yeah
Hey, yeah
Oh...oh...oh...oh...
Oh, yeah
Oh...oh...

When i think of what i've done, all the pain that i've brought
baby, you should've walked out on me
And when i turned away from you, whenever there were hard times
How could you still be with me

And it was no mistake, when i hurt you that day
And went out with somebody new
But still you forgave me like it was so easy
I should've been BETTER TO you

Baby, it breaks my heart
To think that lovin me is not easy to do
And i dont mean to make it hard
Sorry for all the changes i put you through

And it's hard to believe after everything
You're still here right beside me
Wouldn't trade you for this whole world
Thankful just bein' your girl

Never gave you my heart, cause i never thought
you deserved any of me
I never told you how i felt, when deep inside i knew that
You're really what i need

And i always gave you up whenever i thought
Something better'd come along
And right when i come back, you're waiting for me
And you welcome me home

Baby, it breaks my heart
To think that lovin me's not easy to do
And i don't mean to make it hard
Sorry for all the changes i put you through

And it's hard to believe after everything
You're still here right beside me
Wouldn't trade you for this whole world
Thankful just bein' your girl

And if it takes my whole life
I'll make it up to you
'Cause i've been so cruel
And you've given your love to me in spite of everything
I-I don't deserve you

From this day forward, I'm truly yours
it took me a while to see
That we were meant for one another
Thank you for loving me

Baby, it breaks my heart
To think that lovin' me's not easy to do 
And i don't mean to make it hard
Sorry for all the changes i put you through

And it's hard to believe after everything
You're still here right beside me
Wouldn't trade you for this whole world
Thankful just bein' your girl

Baby, it breaks my heart
To think that lovin' me is not so easy to do
And I don't mean to make it hard
Sorry for all the changes I put you through

And it's hard to believe after everything
You're still here right beside me
Wouldn't trade you for this whole world
Thankful just bein' your girl

Da-da-da-da-da
Da-da-da-da
Da-da-da-da-da
Oh, I...I...I...
Da-da-da
Da-da-da-da-da