Journal Of Life

2013年3月22日星期五

Apple 將正式進入 Smart TV 市場？ ( Apple Inc., will migrate into iTV smart TV market in 2013 )

鴻海搶蘋果iTV有譜！外傳鴻海集團董事長郭台銘3月初赴日之際，悄悄與蘋果高階幹部接洽iTV面板出貨事宜，雙方會面地點特意改在郭董個人出資的大阪堺市10代面板廠，過程中郭董還出示「秘密武器」，向蘋果展現鴻海已具有生產iTV的能力，搶單意味十足。

　業界推敲，郭董日前發表景氣看法時，曾提出所謂「金蛇出洞日」，也就是今年5、6月間，屆時不排除有iTV出貨的好消息。

　一直以來，蘋果iTV「只聞樓梯響，不見人下來」，原本市場預期蘋果將在3月召開與iTV相關的大會，並於9月或10月份正式發售，但外傳因蘋果的液晶面板供應商LG Display Co.（LGD）、夏普，截至目前為止，都還無法達到良率目標，上市日期恐將延至明年，連帶也給了競爭者最佳切入時機。

　看準智慧電視商機，外傳郭台銘今年3月親赴日本，與蘋果高級主管面洽，並親自做簡報，雙方見面的地點就選在郭董個人出資的大阪堺市10代面板廠，而非夏普目前替蘋果組裝代工的龜山第一工廠。

　由於當時剛好碰到夏普迎新歡三星入股，以致焦點遭到模糊，市場普遍以郭董赴日為鴻夏戀固椿來作解讀，但背後係為了洽談iTV訂單。

　據悉，這次與蘋果高層會面過程中，郭台銘不單做足了準備，還出示了某項「秘密武器」，藉以向蘋果證實自己已具有生產蘋果iTV的能力。對於上述報導，鴻海發言體系昨日不予回應，不過業界人士指出此消息的可能性頗高。

Smart content, connected and recognition become a trend in smart TV

　據悉，此次會面中，鴻海已和蘋果高層就iTV的面板尺寸、出貨規模和出貨時間等細節詳加討論，不過雙方合作案並未拍板，最終能否順利搶單，還有待蘋果定奪，但詎料時間不會拖得太久，應該會落在郭董所謂的金蛇出洞日，也就是今年的5、6月間。如順利敲定，推測屆時iTV面板應會由堺工廠10代廠出貨，這也是為何雙方選在十代線洽商的原因。

47 inch smart TV in 699 USD in Amazon

　日本媒體Mynavi News去年12月曾引述華爾街日報報導指出，美國蘋果正在與亞洲零組件供應商共同研發大尺寸電視，文中直接點名所謂的亞洲零組件供應商，指的就是台灣鴻海與日本夏普，但因日前爆出三星入股夏普案，引「三星」入關的夏普，會否因此丟掉iTV大單，又成為市場焦點。

　市場推測，蘋果與三星一直存有瑜亮情結，會否因為此因素，棄夏普就鴻海，目前仍有待觀察，但此次蘋果和郭董洽商的地點，不是選在夏普的「蘋果專用工廠」，即龜山第一工廠，而是選在郭台銘個人出資的堺市十代廠，頗不尋常。

註：Apple smart iTV 出現將搶走 15% ~ 20% smart TV 市場，也就是 iPod、iPhone、iPad 使用者市場；

Slowing LCD TV demand alters panel manufacturers’ business strategies

USA: LCD TV panel manufacturers are planning less aggressive business strategies for 2013 as LCD TV demand growth slows, according to the latest NPD DisplaySearch Quarterly LCD TV Value Chain Report.

Panel makers are moving to avoid an oversupply of LCD TV panels. This involves a drastic change in business models, which includes developing strategic alliances, making capacity allocation improvements, and expanding product portfolios to include a larger variety of panel sizes. LCD TV panel manufacturers hope that by moving to larger screen sizes, they can decrease unit shipments while increasing total area shipped, thus boosting their bottom lines.

“Consumers are focused on TV prices, while brands have been focused on TV features. This disconnect has resulted in reduced demand and profits for TV supply chain participants in 2012,” said Deborah Yang, NPD DisplaySearch Research director.

“A misalignment in panel size portfolios between buyers and sellers could result in supply constraints. Panel makers and TV brands are trying to strengthen their business portfolios and enhance their bargaining power with supply chain participants in order to improve profitability and gain a competitive edge.”

Taking these factors into account, along with the aggressive TV shipment plans of some TV brands (in particular the top two Korean TV brands and Chinese TV makers), NPD DisplaySearch forecasts 4 percent Y/Y growth in LCD TV panel shipments for 2013 and 11 percent Y/Y growth in TV shipments planned by surveyed TV brands. Samsung and LG, for example, are working with Sharp to increase panel supply in 2013, mostly for 32” panels.

“Some TV brands’ 2013 shipment plans reflect their strategy to set higher targets and secure sufficient panel supply, but they may also be too aggressive,” said Yang. “The TV supply chain is evolving, with Taiwanese panel makers leading the development of new panel sizes and ties with TV brands. Meanwhile, panel and set makers are adopting new business models around open cell and backlight-module-systems (BMS) assembly. Other TV manufacturers may be forced to follow suit—changing the TV value chain over the long term.”

World smart TV sales surge

Smart TVs - tellies with internet connectivity - accounted for almost 20 per cent of the televisions that manufacturers shipped in Q1.Almost 30 per cent of them went into Western Europe, but the world's biggest IPTV fans are clearly the Japanese: 46 per cent of the TVs that shipped there were smart devices.

Yet Japanese shipments were low: just under 1m units. More than 2.6m smart TVs shipped into Western Europe, and some 3.2m into China.

Penetration there hit 30 per cent as Chinese buyers snapped up new TVs to help celebrate the Lunar New Year, market watcher NPD DisplaySearch said today.

LG and Samsung may have been promoting their smart TV platforms of late, but in Q1, the number of smart TVs they shipped as a proportion of their total telly shipments were just 26 per cent and 12 per cent, respectively.

Compare that to Sony: more than half of the TVs it shipped in the quarter - 51 per cent - were internet connectable.

Other familiar brands - to Westerners - Philips, Sharp and Panasonic scored 36 per cent, 28 per cent and 21 per cent, respectively, according to DisplaySearch's numbers.

Still, it's impossible to yet say how many of these devices are being used for their connected capabilities. Smart TV functionality remains just one television feature among many. China's high sales, for instance, may say more about the growing conspicuous consumption of the Chinese middle class than the keenness of folk there on net-sourced entertainment.

LCD TV Shipment Growth to Improve in 2012, Driven by 40” and Larger Sizes

SANTA CLARA, Calif., January 3, 2012—Consumer demand for TVs has been softer than expected in 2011, but showing signs of improvement late in the year. However, inventory pressure plagued the industry through much of early 2011 and led to a sharp reduction in shipments to retailers. The result is that global TV unit shipments are expected to rise only 0.1% in 2011. According to the latest forecast released in the NPD DisplaySearch Advanced Quarterly Global TV Shipment and Forecast Report, growth is expected to improve in 2012, rising 2% to 254 million units.

“Global economic conditions have improved in 2011, but more slowly than expected, and consumers in mature TV markets like Europe face continuing uncertainty, which is leading to very cautious spending patterns,” noted Paul Gagnon, Director of North America TV Research for NPD DisplaySearch. Gagnon added, “Because price reductions are not as vigorous as a few years ago, partially due to a mature manufacturing base but also because of transitions to advanced features like LED backlights and 3D, consumers are becoming more willing to wait for peak sale periods to purchase.”

Price drop per year around 10% after 2008

Flat panel TV continues to grow, but at a more gradual pace of 2-4% per year as the rapid transition from CRT to LCD and plasma nears an end. LCD TV continues to be the dominant technology on a unit and revenue basis, and in fact seems likely capture even more market share due to a weaker outlook for plasma TV going forward. As LCD narrows the pricing gap with plasma at many sizes, the demand for plasma has fallen; NPD DisplaySearch expects this to continue and has reduced its forecast for plasma TV.

Large TV sizes also continue to show strong growth, with shipments of 40”+ and larger sets expected to grow 12% in 2012 while larger than 40” sizes decline 3%. A strong contributing factor to the growth of larger sizes, including an 18% increase in shipments of 50”+ sets, is pricing. Sizes up to 50” will have average prices below $1000 in 2012 and even 60” + sizes will fall below $2000 for the first time. During Black Friday holiday sales in the US, many 40-47” sets were below $500, and even 60” sets fell below $1000, prompting robust unit sales as consumers were attracted to the new price points. Many consumers seem to be willing to give up features in favor of larger sizes for a given TV buying budget. Even in China, shipment share of 50” + and larger sizes is growing strongly and may become the only region outside of North America to reach 10% 50”+ mix of unit shipments by 2015.

2.6 Million 4K Ultra HD TVs to Ship in 2013

Still wondering and worrying that 4K (Ultra HD) isn’t going to take off? Check out NPD DisplaySearch‘s latest numbers. The firm just released its latest Quarterly Large Area TFT Panel Shipment Report, which says a whopping 2.6 million 4Kx2K LCD TV panels will ship by the end of 2013. This means the technology, also known as Ultra HD, will grow 40-fold. After all, 2012’s numbers were somewhere around 63,000.

According to the report, TFT LCD panel suppliers will play a pivotal role in 4K×2K LCD TV adoption, via cost-effective solutions and new technologies. NPD DisplaySearch specifically mentions high-transmittance cell designs, high-output driver integrated circuits (ICs), and high-efficiency backlight units and integrated up-scaling circuits for 4K×2K panels.

“To date, Innolux Corp. has been the most aggressive panel manufacturer in this market segment, developing a full line-up of 4K×2K panels in the 39- to 85-inch range,” says David Hsieh, VP of NPD DisplaySearch’s Greater China Market. “Despite this, 4K×2K panel manufacturers’ shipments are primarily focused on 50-, 55/58-, and 65-inch sizes, which are expected to have the highest volume shipments, especially in China.”

Of course, the above data doesn’t necessarily mean everyone is going to rush out and build a home theater around a 4K display. That would be nice, but it seems like these numbers are factoring in the commercial market, which includes digital signage. In fact, panel manufacturers are hoping to strengthen relationships with any and all LCD TV brands, to bring the tech to the masses.

“4K×2K LCD TV is the newest TV technology available, and in order for it to be successful, it will be critical for the supply chain to avoid falling behind when making their purchases, even if content is still scarce,” adds Hsieh. “Some panel makers are also working with design houses to develop circuits built into the panel, to enable up-scaling of HD to 4K×2K content. This will help to drive the 4K×2K LCD TV market and encourage panel makers, especially those that have already started design-in work with TV brands in 2013.”

打造Social TV生態系 Smart TV三大陣營成形

Smart TV雖仍處於起步階段，但2011至2012年的出貨量成長數字預計將十分驚人，而2011年由智慧行動終端所掀起的科技產業典範轉移，終究有一天亦將蔓延到TV。根據拓墣產業研究所預測顯示，全球Smart TV出貨量將有機會從2010年的704萬台成長到2011年的2,518萬台，佔整體TV比重的10.4%；隨著更多TV品牌業者推出新款Smart TV，2012年全球Smart TV出貨量可望增加至5,285萬台，年成長逾100%，佔整體TV比重20%。拓墣產業研究所張乘維經理表示，後PC時代，消費電子產品將持續進化，Smart TV將是最終戰場，其中使用者介面、遊戲、網路瀏覽器、OTT Video、社交網路、搜尋工具等為Smart TV六大關鍵成功要素，殺手級應用則非社交網路莫屬。

TV+Social Smart TV搶攻新世代

拓墣表示，社交網路既然可以進入行動裝置市場，當然也可進入電視市場。觀察各大品牌業者所推出的Smart TV產品，顯示「社群」與「分享」已成為Smart TV的兩大核心要素，包括Samsung、Sony、LG、Sharp、Philips等廠商都在最新的Smart TV中增加了Facebook、Twitter、Google Talk、Skype等社交網站的應用程式。而看電視本來就是社交的一環，譬如美國2011年2月超級盃足球賽期間，每秒產生4,064則Tweets，美國四大電視網ABC、NBC、CBS、FOX也開始針對社交媒體推出各類型節目或服務。

拓墣指出，Smart TV的殺手級應用，應當屬社交功能的出現，讓Smart TV的概念從過去建立在TV導向提供OTT/VoD服務、串流影視、實境秀、Flash影視、TV Apps、3D影視等內容，逐漸趨向社交網路導向的型式發展，吸納更多使用者、影片、社交媒體桌面工具匯集，並融合各種裝置和應用程式集大成。拓墣強調，Social TV應該包含Smart TV、平板機、智慧手機等智慧裝置，和直播電視等影音內容，以及社群軟體，共同打造以社交為中心的生態環境，唯有貫徹Social概念，才能整合TV和Web，催生符合新世代年輕消費者需求的Smart TV，以求產品爆量增長。

三大陣營成形比拼內容質量

社交網路導向的Smart TV產品誕生之後，作業系統平台將驅動Smart TV陣營成形，陣營內各自共享平台上的應用程式內容。以目前趨勢來看，拓墣表示目前擁有近千個應用程式以及1,000萬次下載量的Samsung Smart TV，將自成一大陣營；Sony、Vizio，以及中國大陸彩電品牌海信、TCL與康佳將加入Google Android平台；LG、Sharp、Philips三家廠商則以HTML5、CE-HTML和HbbTV等開發語言為基礎，共同打造Smart TV的軟體開發工具。TV品牌業者除了將研發能量集中開發應用程式之外，影音內容質量則是另一決勝關鍵。

分析

2012 Smart TV 出貨量大幅成長 109%，2013 Smart TV 出貨量大幅成長 66.28%；
Apple Smart iTV 一出現，將搶走 15% ~ 20% smart TV 市場，也就是 iPod、iPhone、iPad 使用者市場，這是無可避免的；
預估 Apple Smart iTV 最快 2013 年底出現；

2013年3月21日星期四

2013 台灣第一季GDP成長率極可能在低於 1.8%，經濟部、主計處原先預估出口成長率這麼差這麼多?

前2月外銷訂單年增1% 不如預期

經濟部昨（20）日公布，1、2月外銷訂單金額共計661.8億美元，寫下歷年同期新高紀錄，但年增率僅1.1%，低於原先成長逾5%的預期，主因塑化等傳產接單沒勁。經濟部認為全球景氣復甦步調仍緩，首季成長率「不會太高」，年增率可能不到1%。

經濟部表示，2月外銷訂單290.4億美元，創近二年新低；也較去年同期衰退14.5%，終結去年9月以來正成長走勢。經濟部統計長林麗貞坦言，內部預估失誤、全球景氣復甦速度放緩，都有影響，今年前兩月接單金額才不如預期。統計處官員不諱言，1月接單情形好，才會那麼樂觀。

展望3月接單，林麗貞說，「最多跟去年持平」，約383.7億美元，年成長幅度預估「持平」；今年首季外銷訂單成長率「不會太高」，保守估計年增率0.7%。受春節因素影響，2月各主要貨品海外接單都比1月減少，觀察1 、2月累計金額，三大接單貨品中，僅有資訊通信產品維持正成長，年增5.3%，面板所屬的精密儀器產品則呈現負成長，中斷從去年8月來成長趨勢。

傳統貨品主要接單地區多在大陸及香港，精密儀器高達近六成。林麗貞說，以化學品為例，除大陸需求出現減少，還面臨中東地區業者低價競爭，大陸本身也開始生產，都衝擊台灣業者的接單。

受大陸景氣趨緩衝擊，化學、塑橡膠製品接單從去年3月起出現負成長，國內塑膠類股走勢，也開始出現下滑。

觀察1、2月主要接單地區，大陸及香港訂單金額162.2億美元，蟬聯我最大接單地區，年成長1%。2月外銷訂單海外生產比重為50.1%；前兩月合併平均為50.5%，與去年相較持平。

註：經濟部、主計處自2011開始，經濟成長率越來越失準，原預估2013 經濟成長率 3.5%以上，經濟部、主興經計處主管不應該再由公教學者、政黨或公務員出生高層來擔任，這些人長年吃公家飯，怎能為振興經濟付出？遠比我們這些企業經理人預估失準多許多，請参考：

全球經濟再走緩及大陸國五條出鞘，3月台股回檔等財報 ( 2013 world wide economic is flat, Taiwan stock is still in high price range ? )
台灣第一季經濟成長率真能超過 2.6% 嗎？怎麼自已預估台灣經濟成長率？
2013 第一季景氣先前指標可由無薪假、觀光類股營收、Google 網頁搜尋拜訪率預估得知
由產業趨勢看來 2013 台灣GDP成長率仍在 1.8% ~ 3.3%之間，台灣為什麼賦稅只有GDP的8.4%?

3月外銷訂單年增恐仍負值

元大寶華綜合經濟研究院今天表示，台灣2月外銷訂單金額年減14.5%，大幅差於市場預期；預期3月年增率恐仍呈負值，但衰退幅度可望較2月減輕。

經濟部20日公布2月外銷訂單金額290.4億美元，受春節影響，年減14.5%，中止連5升，但前2月接單661.8億美元，年增1.1%。寶經院表示，受春節假期長達9天影響，2月外銷訂單金額大減14.5%，跌幅遠大於市場預期的3%，創下2009年5月年減20.14%後的最大減幅，其中塑橡膠製品、基本金屬跌幅最多，超過2成。

由 2011 ~ 2012 經濟成長模型看，2013 台灣 GDP

觀光產業成長逐漸趨緩

在支撐經濟成長的C(消費)、I(投資)、G(政府)、X-M(貿易順差)之中，台灣自2011開始，X-M(貿易順差)含海外營餘占 6.4% + 3.3%、外資投資占14.7%、內需消費含房產建材占54.1%、政府支出占19.2%，公司貿易順差含海外營餘 + 外資投資 + 內需消費含房產建材就占整體 GDP 78.5%；

經濟成長模型看：

C(消費) ：會因股市上漲轉好，但因油電雙漲而轉弱，以持平微上揚，加上奢侈稅對房市衝擊，台灣 300萬勞工長期在大陸及東南亞，一月、二月份觀光業營收大部分衰退看，消費部份應該還是持平；
X-M(貿易順差) ：因第一、二月較 2012 第四季衰退，油進口支出油價上揚而增加，貿易順差會持平；
G(政府) ：政府支出與投資持平；
I(投資) ：FDI 外資及台商投資部份，第一季外資及台商投資之金額應該是較重要部分；但第一季真正台商投資及外資之金額仍太小，提振經濟成長幅度不大，加上東協國家、大陸持續提供投資優惠之條件給台商，我不認為稅制結構：營所稅 ( 17% ) + 營餘保留加收稅 ( 10% ) = 27% 配上各人所得最高稅制 (40% ) 能大幅吸引來台投資；

油電雙漲消費轉弱

上市公司獲利率及投資率看：

由上市公司 2013 獲利率看，整體獲利率仍不易提升，小幅提升可能性較高；台灣電子業占上市公司整體營收 68.82%看，產業升級、品牌能力之提升才有助於GDP之提升，持續降價低獲利之組裝代工、平板電腦、智能手機是不易再增長GDP成長率；
由亞洲投資環境優惠稅率看，台灣投資環境優勢不大，這也是為什麼台灣投資率是全世界倒數原因，2013 外資投資率也不易大幅提升，但應該會比2012年好；只有改善台灣投資率，GDP、勞工薪資才能大幅提升，稅收才能增加；馬政府每次都用台灣投資環境改善幫大家洗腦，更說 ECFA 後台灣投資環境改善來吹噓，但實際投資率與金額不管外資或民間在亞洲都是很落後的，因此，再考慮油電續漲、消費信心下滑因素，GDP 成長率修正至1.9% ~ 3.3%；
ECFA 進入末段，僅剩少數行業受惠如觀光業，僅占上市總營收不及1%，但 GDP 幫助不大；金融業會受益於人民幣開放增加獲利率，但國內銀行推出之人民幣定存利率不如外商銀行，是否幫助很大是未知數；
觀光業、半導體、通訊較確認會成長，投資率會小幅上升，產業成長區塊僅占GDP約占4.5% ~ 6.5%；

2012 台灣外資直接投資是全球倒數

由內需消費看：

內需消費含房產建材會因開徵證所稅、打壓房市持續萎縮，內需消費不會更好；
因為高油電價格、證所稅及房市成交量萎縮都是直接"內需消費含建材"對GDP正面之成長產生衝擊是非常嚴重的；
在大陸、東南亞台灣勞工已經超過300萬人，一年流失之內需消費經濟應該已經超過 8000億，占 GDP 5.78 ~ 5.8%，其實是非常巨大，而由台灣新聞及購物網頁搜尋拜訪率預估得知2013有更多人不在台灣，這經由我實際統計 1 ~ 3 月餐廳生意，普遍是不如預期，更確認第一季內需消費極可能又不如預期；

分析

目前，馬政府經濟成長努力是不夠，台灣若第一季經濟成長率低於 1.8%，全年經濟成長率超過3.3%機率就很低。若第一季、二季經濟成長率 1.8% ~ 2.2%，第三季、四季經濟成長率要超過 5.0% ~ 5.2%，全年經濟成長率才能達成目標。目前影響台灣GDP成長率很重要因素是 TSMC 之投資，若第一季TSMC 之投資金額 3000億啟動，對台灣GDP成長率及民間投資貢獻會很大，那GDP成長率第一季就有機會超過2.5%；
台灣GDP成長率要提高，除非外資投資率上升、產業升級、品牌能力、富人移民投資台灣增加、台灣運用之勞工就業比率要增加，否則，以台灣目前 GDP、產業結構、大幅輸出白領勞工情況下，台灣GDP成長率要再提高是不易的；
幫勞工蓋低價國民房遠比打房有效，證所稅是否造成低成交量仍須觀察。
廠商移出將大幅降低賦稅/GDP比率，對 GDP 成長有負效應。
台灣目前是四小龍失業率最高，也是四小龍白領勞工最大輸出國，每年流失之內需消費經濟已經很高，還造成勞保健保費收入減少，造成之影響就是稅收大幅減少，勞工薪資長期不漲。
台灣兩黨公教學者要再努力一點，因為在大陸、東南亞台灣勞工已經超過300萬人、國債也超過40%、台灣成為亞洲投資率倒數國家、勞工可領勞保退休年齡也被延至65歲，在我們看只要政策一直讓廠商外移、投資率下降，GDP成長率就會一直下降；
台灣第一季GDP成長率要看 3 月份進出口順差、內需消費、外資投資金額，希望大幅增加內需消費、外資及民間投資金額來達成第一季GDP成長率 3.07% 目標。2012 一月、二月、三月貿易餘額(美元)及工業生產年增是 4.2億、28.3億、24億及 -16.5%、8.4%、-3.4%；2012 一月、二月貿易餘額(美元)及工業生產年增是 5億、9億及19.2%、-11.4%；