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2016年12月25日星期日

人工智慧成為未來產業更重要的趨勢 - 人工智慧災難也將來臨 ( AI become major trend in industrial - it will induce AI crisis )

繼霍金之後，Elon Musk 再示警：人工智慧災難 5 年內爆發

豪無節制地發展人工智慧（artificial intelligence，AI），後果可能不堪設想，且災難可能最近幾年就會爆發！

AI 發展迅速恐造成嚴重後果

身兼美國豪華電動車製造商特斯拉（Tesla Motors）、航太運輸服務公司 SpaceX 兩家公司執行長以及美國太陽能板公司 SolarCity 董事長的 Elon Musk 上週末再度對人工智慧的危險性提出警告，認為這種科技的發展腳步非常快速，而且只有英國人工智慧公司 DeepMind 等相關業者的內部人才知道速度究竟有多快。

CNBC 17 日報導，Musk 同時指出，人工智慧勢必會導致非常危險的事件，且五年內、最多十年就可能發生。Musk 強調，這絕對不是「狼來了」，他是對整個事件有相當的理解才會對大家示警。

Musk 是在知名科學交流網站 Edge.org 一篇名為「The Myth of AI（人工智慧的迷思）」的文章底下留言，但他在留言送出不久後立即將之刪除。

Musk 發言人在回答 Re/code 詢問時表示，該篇留言的確是 Musk 所寫，但這原本是要寄送給 Edge 網站創辦人 John Brockman 的私人電子郵件，並非公開的評論。該名發言人並透露，Musk 之後會在部落格撰寫一篇較長的文章來討論這個話題。

Musk 6 月 18 日在接受 CNBC 專訪時就曾指出，他在 DeepMind 被 Google 併購前曾是該公司的股東之一，另外也投資了舊金山人工智慧軟體業者 Vicarious。Musk 說，投資 Vicarious 的目的並不是在追求報酬，他只是想藉此追蹤人工智慧的發展程度。Musk 當時警告，就像電影「魔鬼終結者」演的一樣，人工智慧發展到最後可能會有嚴重後果。

可能難以被人類掌控

霍金與加州大學柏克萊分校人工智慧教授 Stuart Russell、麻省理工學院宇宙學家 Max Tegmark 以及麻省理工學院物理系教授 Frank Wilczek 5 月份就曾聯合在英國獨立報（The Independent）發表文章警告，AI 短期內的影響端賴背後掌控的人而定，但長遠來看，AI 能否被操控，才是問題的核心。

霍金等人指出，強尼戴普主演的最新電影《全面進化（Transcendence）》描述了一個逐漸失控的 AI，其實這並非危言聳聽，因為 AI 未來可能會比金融分析師還聰明、比科學家更具創意、比人類領袖更能操縱人心、甚至還有機會研發出人們完全無法理解的武器。

霍金並警告，世界文明是人類智慧的產物，但當這種智慧被 AI 的工具放大時，產生的結果實在難料，唯一能確定的就是，戰爭、疾病與貧窮會是大家最先消滅的問題。就在最近，全球各地的軍隊已開始考慮導入能夠自選並殲滅目標的自動化武器系統（聯合國與人權觀察組織已開始呼籲禁用這類武器）；中期來看，人工智慧甚至可能轉化整個經濟型態，帶來巨大的財富與嚴重的混亂。

庫克 : 未來人工智慧在智慧型手機中將扮演更重要的角色

根據《華盛頓郵報》日前一篇針對蘋果 15 周年，而對執行長庫克（Tim Cook）所做的專訪中指出，庫克認為未來智慧型手機的發展關鍵將會是在人工智慧 (AI) 上。至於，當前非常火紅的擴增實境項目上，雖然庫克指出，蘋果正在大力朝這方面發展。不過，卻沒有針對即將開發的產品項目進行說明。而在未來蘋果是否發展「Apple Car」的問題上，庫克則沒有進行正面的答覆。

在該篇專訪中指出，蘋果在過去的 4 季裡的營收大約是 1,410 億美元(折合新台幣約為 4.42 兆元)，這比思科 (Cisco) 、迪士尼 (disney) 、耐吉 (Nike) 3 家公司合起來一年的總收入都要多。然而，在蘋果最新一季的財報中顯示，支持營收最大來源的 iPhone ，其銷量下跌了 23% 。對此，庫克必須思考出針對蘋果未來新的成長動力。

報導中進一步指出，在尋求蘋果新的成長動能方面，庫克表示，看看構成當代智慧型手機的核心技術，再去看看未來智慧型手機中的決定性關鍵技術。例如「人工智慧」這將使得智慧型手機對使用者來說更為必要。

至於，對於擴增實境 (AR) 的部分，庫克則重申了他過去的說法表示，蘋果正在向擴增實境投入鉅資進行研發。不過，他並沒有對此明確的透露，蘋果的研發只是針對發展擴增實境軟體，還是會推出類似 Google 眼鏡、亦或者是針對 Magic Leap 和微軟 HoloLens 的專用硬體。他僅表示，「我認為，擴增實境非常有趣，是一種核心技術。因此，目前我們在幕後有很多工作正在開展。」

最後，在專訪中記者提及了日前傳言滿天飛的蘋果「Apple Car」問題時，庫克的回答則是以解說其他的周邊話題帶過，並沒有對此做出正面的回應。因此，外界猜測，「Apple Car」目前或許也還沒有個定論，所以庫克也不希望外界有過多的聯想與猜測。

Intel 宣布將發展針對人工智慧領域的新處理器

正在美國舊金山舉行 IDF 大會的半導體龍頭英特爾（Intel）18 日宣布，由於人工智慧（AI）的應用越來越廣泛，也且預計未來市場也越來越多依賴人工智慧的應用，因此 Intel 將開發人工智慧技術的專用晶片，從而在人工智慧的領域中扮演更積極重要的角色。

根據 Intel 在 IDF 上對開發者的表示，計劃於 2017 年推出新型號的 Phi 處理器。Intel 過去開發 Phi 一系列的處理器是針對了特別的科學類應用而來，而未來新型號的 Phi 處理器將導入加速人工智慧計算任務的功能。Intel 指出，新技術將給當前的深度學習（Deep Learnning）領域帶來幫助。尤其是在語音辨識、圖像辨識及自動駕駛等領域，深度學習技術將可藉此獲得到更多更強大的運算效能。

過去，Intel 的 Phi 處理器已將在許多的資料中心被廣泛部署，並且也被用於許多的深度學習運算任務上。Intel 表示，Phi 處理器的產品線比標準處理器有更多的處理器核心。英特爾資料中心集團執行副總裁戴安‧布萊恩特（Diane Bryant）表示，2017 年推出的新型號將可以處理深度學習中專有的某些指令。

而且，Intel 還強調，Phi 處理器可以運行大部分數據分析軟體，同時無需用到可能導致分析速度放緩的外部處理器，這也是 Phi 處理器相對於其他產品的關鍵優勢。過去，部分客戶在使用了 Phi 處理器的產品之後，也部署了用於人工智慧任務的輔助處理器。而這些輔助處理器則大多是來自英偉達（Nvidia）的所開發的 GPU （圖形處理單元）。

一直以來都是許多國際性大公司，包括中國百度等企業在深度學習領域解決方案提供者的 Nivida，對此已經在官方網站上表示，Intel 發展深度學習領域是件好事，但他們應當陳述事實。尤其，在最新晶片的處理速度上，Nivida 仍要遠遠超過 Intel 的技術。而這樣的回應，也似乎宣告兩家公司在人工智慧領域逐漸掀起競爭的煙硝味。

至於，在其他人工智慧領域方面，intel 日前還收購了專注於深度學習晶片和軟體開發德創新公司 Nervana Systems ，說明 Intel 將不只在人工智慧的處理器上布局，其他各應用層面 Intel 也可能將投入發展。

Google、Microsoft 等 5 家科技巨頭成立 AI 組織，試圖制定發展準則

人工智慧（Artificial Intelligence）的研究和應用在近年爆發，不過因為研究所需成本和知識含量相當高，成了科技巨頭的戰場。不過在競爭的同時，28 日，5 家科技巨頭 Amazon、Google、Facebook、IBM、Microsoft 合夥成立共同研究 AI 的非營利組織，但主要是研究 AI 與人類與社會的關係，像是道德、隱私、可信度等問題，確保 AI 的應用是能夠造福人類和社會。

5 家科技巨頭共同成立的 AI 組織就叫做「The Partnership on Artificial Intelligence to Benefit People and Society 」（The Partnership on AI ），在新架設的官方網站中寫到，該組織的目標是找出研究 AI 科技的最佳行為準則，針對特定領域如健康照顧或運輸設立工作小組開發 AI 應用、增進社會大眾對於 AI 的理解、同時作為開放平台討論 AI。

而在研究 AI 科技的最佳發展準則部分，該組織也特別提出幾點如：倫理道德、公平性與包容性；透明、隱私、共通性；AI與人類間的合作；科技的可信賴、可靠、強健程度。

The Partnership on AI 總共有 10 席董事會，5 家創始會員都有派人出任，而 Google 指派的董事是 DeepMind 團隊成員，該團隊位於倫敦，其開發的「AlphaGo」人工智慧系統曾打敗南韓棋王李世乭；另外有學術界的專家、非營利組織人士、政策和道德專家參與，未來也會廣納其他企業參加，甚至促成跨產業的合作。而 5 個創始會員也會貢獻財源以及研究用的資源。

會有 The Partnership on AI 這個組織的出現，是 5 個創始會員大力發展 AI，看好他的機會及潛能，應用在語音助手、自動駕駛車、圖片辨識、甚至是下圍棋的同時，他們也注意到社會上一部分的人憂心著人工智慧的發展，會不會造成人們失業、帶來經濟問題，甚至會不會比人們聰明、威脅到人類生存。該組織強調，他們及 AI 研究人員同樣也重視這些問題，因此他們才攜手努力於這些重要的議題。

「身為這領域的研究者，我們很看重人們的信任，才能確保科技的進步是為人類的價值而提供。」Facebook AI 研究部門的主管 LeCun 在一份聲明中說到，他是深度學習領域的專家，同時也是 Facebook 指派到 The Partnership on AI 的董事。

機器學習、AI題材大爆發，NVIDIA連續5天創歷史新高

investors.com報導，高盛(Goldman Sachs)將NVIDIA Corporation納入確認買進名單、並將目標價自92美元調高至129美元。高盛指出，NVIDIA是半導體業的獨特成長故事，在遊戲、汽車、虛擬實境以及機器學習(ML)都有相當強勁的成長表現。

瑞穗證券分析師Vijay Rakesh 20日重申NVIDIA投資評等為「買進」、目標價自80美元調高至115美元，超微(AMD)投資評等自「中立」調高至「買進」、目標價設定在13美元，英特爾(Intel)投資評等也是「買進」、目標價上看42美元。Rakesh指出，深度學習、人工智慧(AI)將是下一個重大的運算典範，NVIDIA、超微以及英特爾可望因而受惠。他提到，英特爾在這個領域的起步雖然較慢，但隨著數據中心開始採用Xeon Phi協同處理器、公司可望受惠於GPU相關銷售。

霸榮(Barrons.com)部落格報導，高盛分析師Toshiya Hari指出，業界人士預估機器學習、AI市場潛在規模高達50-100億美元。NVIDIA在機器學習領域的競爭對手是兩家未上市公司Graphcore、Cerebras。

NVIDIA於2017會計年度第3季(截至2016年10月30日為止)宣布，特斯拉(Tesla)Model S、Model X以及Model 3的全新AutoPilot自動駕駛系統都將配備NVIDIA DRIVE PX 2。此外，NVIDIA也宣布與百度(Baidu)結盟、攜手開發自駕、人工智慧車與圖資系統。NVIDIA並於第3季度發表代號「Xavier」的次世代Tegra處理器、未來將充當自駕車的人工智慧超級電腦。

根據NVIDIA在9月28日上傳至YouTube的影片(連結點此)，暱稱「BB8」自駕測試車可在沒有車道分隔線的道路(包括羊腸小徑)或夜間、下雨路況安全地移動。特斯拉10月19日宣布，即日起出廠的旗下所有電動車(包括Model 3)都將配備全自動駕駛硬體配件。特斯拉指出，現在配備的電腦處理效能是前一代的40倍，負責執行自家開發的視覺、聲納和雷達處理軟體的神經網路。2017年底特斯拉旗下車種將可啟動無人駕駛模式、自洛杉磯開到紐約時代廣場。
英國金融時報12月4日報導，蘋果(Apple Inc.)首度坦承公開坦承正在進行自駕車開發計畫。蘋果品管部主任Steve Kenner於11月22日寫給美國國家公路交通安全管理局(NHTSA)的信件內容中提到，蘋果透過機器學習讓產品、服務變得更為聰明、更直覺且更為個人化。他指出，蘋果砸大錢開發機器學習與自動化，公司對自動化系統在運輸業等領域的潛力感到雀躍。

費城半導體指數成分股NVIDIA 12月20日上漲3.48%、收105.17美元，連續第5個交易日創歷史收盤新高；今年迄今漲幅高達219.08%。超微20日大漲5.11%、收11.51美元，創2007年11月19日以來收盤新高；今年迄今漲幅高達301.05%。英特爾20日上漲0.87%、收37.21美元，創10月18日以來收盤新高；今年迄今上漲8.01%。

產業趨勢

人工智慧成為未來產業更重要的趨勢，勢不可擋之趨勢下，人工智慧災難也將來臨，因為 AI 未來可能會比金融分析師還聰明、比科學家更具創意、比人類領袖更能操縱人心；
人工智慧應用於機器人、智慧型自駕車、社交網路機器人、金融專家機器人、購物助理機器人等等，人類許多工作機會將消失；
若 Google、Facebook、Apple、Intel 將機器人科技整合了電腦，在合理價位下一個是機器人又是電腦的科技將普及人類社會，讓企業效率更高，讓電腦與娛樂、教學、搜尋及建議之機器人電腦產生下一代革命。

2016年10月30日星期日

機器人時代來了，所有物聯網裝置都將有人工智慧的核心 - 那些事件發生對人類影響是巨大的 ( The era of robots is coming, all devices will have the core of artificial intelligence )

機器人來了這7種工作他們超拿手

Google involve in Robot industrial will make a big impact to human

機器人來了！功能設計更上一層樓，在一般家庭、辦公商務、醫療照護、陪伴療癒、教育娛樂、金融理財、賣場等各種生活場合，機器人提供多樣化服務，與人類更自然互動。

隨著人工智慧、環境與動作感測辨識、以及情感認知互動等技術大幅提升，機器人已更上一層樓，可以具有人型外觀、能人對話互動、甚至可從人類互動中學習增長智慧。

如今在一般家庭、辦公商務、醫療照護、陪伴療癒、教育娛樂、金融理財、賣場等生活場合，我們開始可以看到機器人與人類互動、提供多樣化服務的身影。

例如話題持續延燒的日本軟銀（ SoftBank ）服務型機器人Pepper，預計最快 9 月下旬，就可以在台灣各大電信門市、銀行、賣場等場合，看到 Pepper 現身服務。

機器人也可以成為家庭生活的好幫手。例如日本豐田（TOYOTA）開發的 Human Support Robot 機器人，使用者可透過平板電腦觸控定點遙控，協助撿拾或吸取地上物品。此外，清潔機器人可以透過紅外線和光學感測，幫忙家庭掃地吸塵、清理地板。

當然，機器人也可以搖身一成為大廚，料理出一道道拿手好菜。

國外媒體報導，Moley Robotics 規劃最快 2017 年推出機器人廚房解決方案，家庭成員可以透過廚房的觸控螢幕，或是智慧型手機和平板電腦，指示廚房內的機器人手臂，操作料理的過程。

隨著人口高齡化和少子化趨勢，缺工問題接踵而來，銀行、醫院、百貨、餐飲業、汽車運輸業等服務業，正陸續引進機器人來取代人力，因此創造出新興商業模式。

例如日本本田（HONDA）的 All-new ASIMO 人型機器人，躍進到具備自主能力（autonomous）的新階段，可在辦公場合扮演商務接待的角色，也能和一般上班族自然互動。

而在金融科技（FinTech）浪潮下，數位化機器人可能逐步取代銀行分行的從業人員，化身數位理專，直接面對臨櫃一般民眾，提供理財資訊與建議，成為民眾金融理財的好幫手。

同時，機器人軟體也逐步滲透進入汽車運輸領域。例如本田和軟銀在 7 月下旬宣布合作，本田將軟銀 Pepper 機器人內建雲端人工智慧軟體，應用在汽車領域。未來汽車將變身成為超級電腦或是機器人，讓車輛在行駛過程中，可與駕駛和乘客對話。

在醫療照護層面，療癒機器人可以幫助醫護人員、照顧親戚和病患之間的互動，例如日本 RIKEN-TRI Collaboration 推出看護機器人 RIBA，可以抱起和放置病患，協助病患上下輪椅。

美國研究團隊也開發出智慧軟組織自動機器人（Smart Tissue Autonomous Robot），可進行比擬類外科醫生縫合動物器官軟組織的手術作業。

機器人不只可以幫人類工作，還可以陪你深情伴唱。

例如日本產業技術總合研究所（AIST）推出的擬真機器人 HRP-4C ，可以按照人類的頭髮、臉部五官、頸部、手足設計，顏面表情更可隨著外部環境條件變化。HRP-4C 更可以結合語音合成技術，模仿人類聲音唱出歌曲，肢體也可隨著歌曲同步變化生動。

被科技威脅的未來：人類沒有工作的那一天 - 值得閱讀深思

一天，亨利福特帶汽車工人工會領導人參觀最新的自動化工廠，正為了自動化生產線不需要工人，洋洋得意。工人工會領導人回了亨利福特一句話，「你打算如何讓這些機器人買你的車呢？」

這段對話可能是虛擬的，但是卻預示了科技長期快速發展下，工資、生產力、消費力架構的社會經濟結構，已經被推到了巨變的引爆點。

過去，機器是提高勞工生產力的工具，今天，機器就是勞工，取代的不只是低技能的工作。

　　電腦成為「有思考能力」的機器，能決策、會學習、甚至有好奇心，加上大數據與雲端運算，需要依賴電腦資訊工作的白領階層終將被機器、軟體所吞噬。這些專業化、例行性與可預測的工作，包括律師、藥劑師、醫師、分析師、IT技術人員、甚至公司主管等都將一一被取代。

　　機器佔據工作機會，但機器人只生產、不消費，將使薪資成長停滯、所得更集中在少數富有者身上，大量的消費者最終因缺乏足夠的所得與購買力，使得社會失去消費動能，終將威脅到經濟成長。

不同於一般科技人或趨勢家，作者馬丁‧福特（Martin Ford）是成功創業家，長期觀察軟體發展、從獨特的科技對社會的影響角度切入，引證大量資料，率先詳盡研究機器智能和機器人科技可能帶來的衝擊，分析出因科技而生的七大致命的經濟趨勢。

　　不管我們願不願意，機器接管工作的腳步只會加快，熟悉的生活都將終結，我們勢必要重新思考經濟運作，才能因應科技強大的顛覆破壞力。

當機器人已經不是想像中的笨重機器手臂，現在的機器人會共享知識、靈巧度可與人類匹敵、3D視覺也難不倒它們。機器大軍即將突破人類就業安全網，農業、製造業、服務業、零售業等提供最多就業機會的產業為了生存而紛紛轉型自動化。我們創造工作的速度，遠跟不上工作消失的速度。

機器人將成為不吃飯、不逛街、不消費的超級勞動力，而失去工作的人們將成為失能的消費者；當中產階級不再握有消費能力，經濟成長將無限期停滯，最終走向經濟學家無法從過往經驗預見的全面經濟崩壞。

大數據、自然語言科技、機器自學、基因編程演算法，讓人工智慧走出科幻電影，成為現代生活真實的一部分，人類引以為傲的技能與專業，即將面臨嚴峻挑戰。

Google 收購對話式介面開發商 API.AI，要讓聊天機器人更聽得懂「人話」

Google 20 日宣布收購提供聊天機器人開發工具的新創 API.AI，透過 API.AI，開發者可輕鬆打造同時支援文字和語音辨識的對話式介面（Conversational UI）。

API.AI 可支援 15 種語言

API.AI 的 API 透過語音辨識、意圖辨識和上下文語境理解等技術，讓電腦理解人類語言並轉換為行動，協助開發者打造類似 Siri 的對話式智慧助理，可用於聊天機器人、App、智慧家電等。

Google 指出，目前已有超過 6 萬名開發者使用 API.AI，其中包含 Slack、Facebook Messenger 和 Kik 等通訊軟體。API.AI 目前可支援英文、中文、法文、德文和西班牙文等 15 種語言和方言，而 API.AI 自家的聊天機器人助理 Assistant 已擁有超過 2 千萬名使用者。

Facebook 和 Google 的語音辨識大戰

在此之前，Google 已有豐富的自然語言處理相關經驗，並於今年開放自家語音辨識工具 Google Natural Language API 供開發者免費使用。

此外，Google 也推出類似亞馬遜 Alexa、蘋果 Siri 的智慧語音助理 Google Assistant，並整合進旗下即時通訊軟體 Allo，可提示回覆訊息、協助訂餐廳等功能，而收購 API.AI 後，可讓 Google 更容易轉換人類語言、理解這些文字背後的意圖。

除了 Google，Facebook 同樣也在其通訊軟體加強語音辨識功能，除於 2015 年收購語音辨識新創 WIT.AI，也測試將 Facebook Messenger 的語音內容轉換為文字，讓接收者可直接閱讀。Facebook 旗下 WhatsApp 則是在 iOS 10 中與 Siri 整合，可以直接用語音指示 WhatsApp 撥電話或傳訊息。

語音辨識 + 藍牙耳機 = 語音時代來臨

有了語音辨識技術，未來智慧型手機可以辦到的事，可能都不再需要打開手機便可完成。

知名科技趨勢分析師瑪麗米克（Mary Meeker）在報告中指出，語音時代即將來臨。她說明，「語音是最有效率的運算輸入形式」，此外，語音介面也可以更容易預測我們談話背後的意圖，讓我們不用再從首頁開始瀏覽，而是直接進入想要的功能。

從蘋果推出無線耳機 AirPods 也可看見此趨勢，AirPods 內建免持麥克風，讓使用者可隨時輕鬆召喚 Siri。可想見，未來和智慧助理的溝通管道，可能將逐漸從手機轉移至耳機，或許我們就不用再花這麼多時間盯著手機螢幕了！

TOYOTA 推出陪伴機器人 Kirobo Mini 建議售價台幣 1.25 萬元

根據路透社的報導，日本最大的汽車製造商豐田（TOYOTA）宣佈，他們發明創造出了一種機器人孩童，這種機器人不但能夠做路途嚮導，且能夠安慰和寬解那些沒有孩子的女性。據了解，豐田公司計劃將在下一年開始銷售這種「機械寶寶」。

路透社的報導指出，這種長約 10 公分的機器人名為 Kirobo Mini ，內部裝有攝影鏡頭，麥克風和藍牙系統，同時可以連接智慧型手機。豐田公司的研發部門表示，他能夠辨識人的情緒，並能夠做出反應。例如；當擁有者跟 Kirobo Mini 一起坐到車上，在過程中一旦車輛緊急刹車， Kirobo Mini 的機器人能夠喊出「噢」的反應，並開始談話，目的是提醒可能疲憊的駕駛，在開車時不會睡著。而在車輛平安到目的地之後，Kirobo Mini 還會誇獎自己的主人。

除了在車上陪伴駕駛者之外，Kirobo Mini 這種機器人最非比尋常的一點，就是在於它能該安慰那些沒有子女的日本婦女。根據豐田公司表示，這種機器人能夠緩解日本因低出生率，而對婦女所造成的心理性負面後果。豐田公司的總研發師指出，Kirobo Mini 的底盤很像是一般兒童的腳，能夠表現搖晃動作，模仿那些平衡能力還未發育完全而必須要坐著的孩子們

過去，豐田也曾經研發一系列舊版本的 Kirobo 機器人，這些舊版本的機器人曾經在國際太空站中工作了 18 個月之久，為的就是陪伴太空站內的太空人，並且提供心理支持的作用。至於，新款的 Kirobo Mini 未來在日本的建議售價將為 400 美元（約為新台幣12,550元）。

餐飲服務、製造業逾五成工作已可交給機器人代勞

華爾街日報 12 日報導，根據麥肯錫公司（McKinsey & Co.）發布的報告，餐飲服務業工作是最有可能被科技所取代的，73% 的工作內容可以利用現有的自動化科技來完成。這份報告顯示，包括包裝物品、生產線焊接等可預測、重複性任務也可透過現有機器人技術加以取代。這些可自動化任務約佔美國總工時的五分之一，若就特定製造業而言，佔比將會更高。麥肯錫預估高達 59% 的製造業活動都可由機器人代勞，90% 的焊接、切割工作都可自動化。

當然，可以自動化並不意味著機器人大軍馬上就會取代人類、特別是那些勞力供給充裕的產業。這份報告發現，必須利用專業技術來做出決策、規劃以及創意的工作較難被機器人取代，醫療業從業人員目前也不用擔心會被搶走飯碗。

麥肯錫報告顯示，零售、運輸業 51% 的工作時數可被自動化，金融與保險業為 43%，藝術、娛樂與休閒為 41%。另一方面，教育服務業可被自動化的比率僅有 27%。

麥肯錫指出，如果有一天機器人的自然語言理解能力跟一般人類一樣，金融與保險業工時可自動化比率將從 43% 跳升至 66%。

趨勢分析

從大數據、語音辨識技術、影像辨識技術、自然語言科技、機器自學、基因編程演算法、機器手臂、機器人走路街道辨識，那些事件發生對人類影響是巨大的，再度說出機器人時代來了，人類無法抵擋機器人時代的來臨。
若 Google、Facebook、Apple、Intel 將機器人科技整合了電腦，在合理價位下一個是機器人又是電腦的科技將普及人類社會，讓企業效率更高，讓電腦與娛樂、教學、搜尋及建議之機器人電腦產生下一代革命。
機器人及人工智慧趨勢將超越穿戴裝置成為普及之科技產品。

2016年10月9日星期日

3D列印技術將至應用成長期，各產業應用將產生革命 ( 3D printing technology will reach high growth on application, the industry will revolutionize by this )

IDC：2020年3D列印市場規模將成長至354億美元

2016年3D列印市場將達159億美元，2020年成長至354億美元。儘管3D印表機、耗材將佔市場大宗，但電腦輔助設計在今後5年快速成長，預估成長可望達現今的3倍之多。各產業應用中，汽車設計、航太、國防、醫材等均有成長。

研究機構IDC最新全球3D列印市場支出追蹤半年報指出，2016年相關市場支出將達159億美元(約合新台幣4977億元)，並以24.1%的年複合成長率增加，2020年將達到354億美元(約合新台幣1.11兆元)。

IDC表示，儘管3D印表機與相關耗材將占去市場大半，但3D列印相關軟體服務成長卻更為強勁。電腦輔助設計(CAD)軟體預計在5年後規模將達現今的3倍之多，隨需零件列印服務的成長速度也相去不遠。

3D列印市場最大的應用領域，將以汽車相關設計領域中的快速原型機列印為最，2016年將達40億美元規模，其次則是航太國防零部件列印，規模達24億美元，而牙材列印亦成長不錯。

若以產業別來看，由於原型機與零部件列印的應用案例最多，因此離散製造業自然成為3D列印最大客戶，在2016年佔市場總支出的56%。IDC表示，隨著製造業減少生產週期與控制原型機製造成本等誘因，3D列印在未來數年仍將快速成長，推出3D列印產品的公司也將會顯著增加。

惠普宣稱 3D 列印殺手級的技術現身，更快、更準、更實用

在今年 3 月份的時候，惠普提出要解決 3D 印表機的兩個令人詬病的問題，一是列印速度慢，看著就像等冰融化一樣，第二精度低、品質差。

如今惠普帶來了憋了許久的新技術 Multi Jet Fusion，宣稱可以有十倍的速度提升，且精度更高，列印的顏色比任何一台競爭對手的產品都準，而且要準很多。惠普丟出狠話，打算為整個產業帶來革命，他們這項技術初期應用於企業級客戶，未來不排除也推出消費級產品。

HP 還展示了一個影片，列印出的一個掛鉤可以掛起一輛車，這個掛鉤列印用時不到 30 分鐘，重量 113g，可掛起 4.5 噸重的物體。影片中的車重量 1.1 噸，看起來掛鉤毫不費力，在硬度上令人驚嘆，這有望在製造業受到青睞。

惠普還展示了實機，但是要等到 2016 年才上市。在不久前，惠普宣佈拆分成 HP Enterprise 和 HP Inc. 兩家獨立的上市公司。前者專注於企業級的 IT 解決方案、基礎設施以及軟體和雲端服務。後者將包括惠普傳統的兩大硬體業務，PC 和列印。分拆將在 2015 年 10 月底前完成。

在印表機市場，惠普有著近半數的市場，是產業第一大廠，在商用和消費領域有著很強的口碑。藉助這些口碑和企業客戶關係，推廣 3D 印表機應該不是難事。現在主要看企業的需求，目前較為成熟的市場是工業設計、結構設計以及教育市場，部分製造業也有 3D 印表機的應用。

HP hopes its 3D printers will drive the 'next industrial revolution'

HP wants to drive the "next industrial revolution" and spark a change in the way products are manufactured with its new 3D printers.

The company's first 3D printers will ship later this year, said Cathie Lesjak, chief financial officer for HP, speaking at the Morgan Stanley Technology, Media and Telecom Conference this week.

HP first announced 3D printers in 2014, and is now preparing for the big launch. HP is looking to hire materials experts, mechanical engineers, managers and sales people for its push into 3D printing.

HP has a rich history in printing and is entering a 3D printing market that, over the past 20-plus years, has been marred by support and technology problems. HP wants to make 3D printing quicker, cheaper and faster for businesses.

3D printing PCB

"We're really not terribly interested in consumer 3D [printing], we're interested in commercial," Lesjak said.

The technology offers several advantages for businesses. Instead of using multiple machines to make a product, businesses will be able to use a single 3D printer to make parts, Lesjak said.

Companies will be able to cut manufacturing costs by making products in-house. With the ability to print parts when needed, companies don't have to worry about holding excess inventory, she said.

The HP printer will support advanced inks and materials. It will also use design rules and precision production methods typically applied to integrated circuit manufacturing.

HP's 3D printing technology has its basis in the company's PageWide commercial printing technology. PageWide uses special inks for faster document printing, and will likely expand to include new ink and material for 3D printing.

The excitement around 3D printing peaked in 2014, but has since died down. The stock prices of companies like Stratasys - which owns MakerBot - and 3D Systems have plummeted as those companies focused on the consumer market. That recent history is one reason why HP wants to focus exclusively on the commercial market, Lesjak said.

GE buys two 3D printing companies at $1.4 billion

A Swedish and a German company join the fold to make industrial components. On Tuesday, General Electric announced that it would spend $1.4 billion (~£1 billion) to acquire two European 3D printing companies—Arcam AB from Sweden and SLM Solutions Group from Germany. According to the Associated Press, GE spent $1.5 billion (~£1.1 billion) on 3D printing investments since 2010, meaning the acquisitions will double what the company has invested in the last five years.

In a press release, GE noted that Arcam “invented the electron beam melting machine for metal-based additive manufacturing and also produces advanced metal powders.” SLM Solutions, on the other hand, “produces laser machines for metal-based additive manufacturing.” Both companies have histories of doing business in the aerospace and healthcare industries, and SLM Solutions also has customers in the energy and automotive industries.

3D printing parts for GE

Speaking to The Wall Street Journal, GE’s CEO of Aviation David Joyce said that GE’s jet engine business has been the primary outlet for so-called additive manufacturing at the company, but it plans to use 3D printing more frequently in its power turbine and medical equipment businesses.

“GE said it expected to purchase about 1,000 new 3-D printing machines over the next decade,” the WSJ notes. “By bringing the two firms in-house, GE says it could cut costs by $3 billion to $5 billion across the company, since the technology could reduce design and material costs.” Eventually, GE could potentially become a supplier of industrial 3D printing machines and materials with these acquisitions.
3D printing is favored in certain kinds of industrial production—it can be used to create parts that are much lighter than molded or cast parts. At the same time, it can also take longer for a 3D printer to make parts than a more traditional process would take, meaning that many companies employ 3D printing at a prototyping stage but dispense with it for production-ready items. GE has said it hopes to make 3D printing faster by at least two to three times over the next few years, according to the WSJ.

趨勢分析

由於3D列印技術大幅進步，3D列印技術將至應用成長期，各產業應用將產生革命；
研究機構IDC最新全球3D列印市場支出追蹤半年報指出，2016年相關市場支出將達159億美元(約合新台幣4977億元)，並以24.1%的年複合成長率增加，2020年將達到354億美元(約合新台幣1.11兆元)。
對台灣產業影響很大，因為台灣小量多樣產業產值是超過 3000億以上，台灣需抓住這機會產生新的業產創新與成長，如3D列印機器人、客製3D列印產品等等。

2016年4月2日星期六

我所體會之富人與窮人在行為、想法之差異 ( What I experienced between rich and poor in his/her thinking and behavior )

許多人也許少有機會看見自已朋友從貧窮走向富足、從沒房子沒錢走向上億富人，我卻是親眼所見，希望藉這樣所見所聞，鼓勵大家走向富足，才能幫助許多人，不要以為不可能。

10 Major Differences Between Rich and Poor People

I've been rich and I’ve been poor. I know both sides very well.

Growing up poor, I knew that I wanted to be rich. At the age of 24, I earned my first million dollars. I came a long way and studied the subject all of my life. Over time, I have discovered that if you're not living in prosperity, you're living in poverty.

Wealth is a choice that we must all make. Bill Gates once said, "It's not your fault if you were born poor, but it’s your fault if you die poor." There's no reason why you should live in poverty. Wealth is waiting for you, but you have to make up your mind if you want it in your life.

For a long time, I struggled to believe that I could eventually become rich. It wasn't until I observed the differences in thoughts and actions between the "haves" and the "have-nots."

Here are 10 major differences between rich and poor people: ( behavior )

1a. Poor people are skeptical ( 窮人易懷疑態度 )

I distinctly remember a former coworker of mine saying, "Those mechanics are a rip-off! They're always looking for the weak people. They'll charge you when you're not looking!!" He thought that everyone unjustly wanted his money and that everyone is out there to get him.

1b. Rich people are trusting ( 富人信任人 )

Surprisingly, a great deal of rich people leave their car and house doors open. Conversely, in areas of poverty, you'll find that this behavior is highly unlikely to happen. Rich people have the tendency to trust those they meet (within reason) and give others the opportunity to be themselves.

2a. Poor people find fault ( 窮人找錯誤 )

People who are poor are always looking for the problems instead of the solutions. They end up blaming their environment, circumstances, jobs, weather, government, and will make an extensive list of excuses as to why they cannot be successful.

2b. Rich people find success ( 富人尋覓成功之道 )

Rich people understand that everything happens for a reason. Rather than letting life happen to them, they take direct action and make big things happen. They put aside all the excuses and eradicate their blame lists because they have to do what must be done.

Related: 10 Phrases Every Millionaire Avoids

3a. Poor people make assumptions ( 窮人常做假設 )

When it comes to knowing the truth, poor people often make assumptions. If they want to reach out to a celebrity, they might say, "They probably don't have time to talk to me." Instead of checking the facts or asking questions, they never make a true attempt when it comes to getting what they want.

3b. Rich people ask questions ( 富人常問問題 )

Many rich people ask the question, "What if?" For instance, "What if I wrote an email to the president and he or she answers?" If you begin to ask questions, you will save yourself a lot of hassle. The power is in the hands of those who ask the right questions. They don't answer your questions, question your answers.

4a. Poor people say, "They" and "Them" ( 窮人常說“他們”和“他們” )

In the grocery store, the woman at the register said, "They never have enough cashiers. I don't know what's wrong with them." Obviously, this woman did not take any ownership and responsibility over her job. She certainly did separate herself from the job that was paying her.

4b. Rich people say, "We" ( 富人常說“我們” )

At one of my favorite restaurants, the server said, "We take great delight in cooking our steaks in real fire." His sense of pride and ownership stimulated me, which allowed me to give him an honorable tip. Surely, you will be rich when you invest more into what you believe in.

5a. Poor people want the cheapest way ( 窮人常選擇最便宜的方式 )

I was once shopping with a friend who only wanted to buy if they could find the cheapest clothing. They would rush to the clearance rack and pick up clothes that they didn't even want, but ended up buying because of a "deal." Unfortunately, they ended up never wearing it since they only bought the price.

5b. Rich people want the best way ( 富人常選擇最好的方法 )

Rich people will go the extra mile to find quality material. They don't limit themselves to price and often seek service while they shop. Rich people want organized services and will never settle with items that are worthless and unusable.

6a. Poor people think money is more important than time ( 窮人認為金錢比時間更重要 )

Millions of people all over the world are trading their precious time for money. You can always get $500 back, but you can't get 50 hours again. Nonetheless, the majority of people trade time for money and never realize their true potential because of it.

6b. Rich people know that time is more important than money ( 富人認為時間比金錢更重要 )

Rich people never trade time for money. Moreover, they seek fulfilling experiences that dramatically alter their lives. Their careers are more focused on doing what they love and helping others, instead of merely clocking in for a meager paycheck.

Related: 5 Secrets to Monetizing Your LinkedIn Experience

7a. Poor people compete ( 窮人只知競爭 )

When a poor person sees an opportunity, they find out how others are doing it and emulates them. Most often, they never consider another way of doing it. Instead, they settle in the belief that doing what others are doing is the best thing they can do for themselves.

7b. Rich people create ( 富人創造機會 )

My rich neighbors were disgruntled when they found that their Porsche did not come in a specific shade of green, which they deeply wanted. Because of this, they decided to custom build their green Porsche with unprecedented specifications. I've never seen such a thing!

8a. Poor people complain, condemn, and criticize ( 窮人抱怨，譴責和批判 )

Most poor people have learned how to be poor from their predecessors. Their family members have conditioned them to believe that everything is "wrong" instead of right. If you're ever heard someone ask, "What's wrong?" you'll know what I mean.

8b. Rich people praise and enjoy their blessings ( 富人讚揚和感恩他們的祝福 )

Rich people know that they have many privileges and they don't take it for granted. Because of their appreciation of gifts, love, and circumstances, they are able to generate more. Many times, what gets praised gets prospered.

9a. Poor people seek amateur advice ( 窮人常尋求非專業意見 )

They often listen to the opinions of others and seek approval from acquaintances. They believe almost everything they hear without questioning authority. They accept opinions as facts and prohibit themselves from doing research once satisfied with an answer.

9b. Rich people seek expert advice ( 富人們徵求專家意見 )

Those who are rich have learned to think for themselves. If they cannot figure out something, they seek expert advice. Usually, they pay for the advice and are given a wide variety of options. They learn the experts only make suggestions, which means that they aren't particularly confined to a specific action.

10a. Poor people have big television sets ( 窮人喜愛有大電視機 )

Poor people take a lot of time to drift off to sporadic images of which they often have little to no control over. They use their free time to avoid the art of thinking (which is the most challenging task) and zone out to what many have conformed to believe is "entertainment."

10b. Rich people have big libraries ( 富人喜愛有大知識庫 )

Wealthy people are educated and read a lot of books. They use their knowledge in a way that benefits them. Instead of drifting off in random activities, they seek to get within their minds to understand themselves, others, and the world in which they live. In fact, as your personal library increase over the years, so will your home. I can attest to this!

To get a true perspective on how to become rich, you must study rich people. After all, you become what you study. If you're currently surrounded by people who aren't yet rich, just do the opposite of what they do. Soon enough, you'll be able to reach your financial dreams!

7 Main Differences Between Rich And Poor People

Most people want to be rich, but most of them are poor, why? There must be some differences between rich people and poor people. If you study carefully, you will find out why rich and successful people are able to produce amazing results in their life, and why some people are living in poverty.
To be rich and successful, you don’t need to be lucky, extremely hard working or you need to have a college diploma or a university degree.
What you need, is the right mindset and the right mindset will form the right habit. As a result, the right habit will lead you toward the financial abundance kind of lifestyle that you always desire.
So here are the 7 main differences between rich and poor people…

Rich people believe that they create their lives while poor people believe that life happens to them.

Can you see why rich and successful people are able to create amazing results in their life right now? It is simply because they are in control of their lives. They believe that they are the ones who is responsible for their lives, they are the ones who is creating their future, not the economy or the knowledge or luck. On the other hand, poor people will always give excuses and blame on the circumstances.
When they failed in their business, they will blame the economy, their boss, their family or anything that did not go according to their plan. Whenever you believe that life happens to you, you will lose the power to change and the power to control your future. You must believe that you’re the one who is creating your future, not other people or events.

Rich people play the money game to win but poor people play the money game just not to lose money.

This is a big mindset difference. Have you ever seen people invest in the stock market? Some people are so afraid that they will lose their money and they form a mindset that blocks their creativity. They formed the mindset of ‘investing not to lose the money.’However, rich and successful people know exactly how they need to think in order to win the game of money.
They will think and act from the view of playing the game to win. Unlike poor people, they will never invest just not to lose the money.

Rich people think and focus on opportunities while poor people focus on obstacles.

When you face with problems, what are you focus on? Are you focus on the problems, thinking how bad the situation is going to be? Or are you focusing on the solution and thinking about how you can solve or even turn the situation into opportunity? Think about this carefully. No matter who you are, you will definitely face with all kinds of choices in your life. And when you need to decide to move on, try to notice on you thinking, what do you focus on, the solution, or the problem?

Rich people dare to dream big, poor people think small.

When I tell my parents that I want to make a million dollar, they will tell me, “Why do you need so much money? You can live a very good lifestyle if you got a job that has a good pay. You don’t need to be a millionaire.” I don’t know about you, but this statement happens to me all the time. And I definitely believe that poor people will tend to think small while rich people always think big.
To poor people, they will think that rich people are greedy because they always think big. Is it true that you are being greedy if you think big? I don’t know if I buy this, but to me, I’ll think of it as a waste if you’re not using the resources available (your thinking) to you at full. Don’t you owe it to everyone around you to create a better life for them? Don’t you want your family to live good? So think big and create the abundance lifestyle for these people right now.

Rich people are committed to their dreams, poor people are just dreaming about their dreams. Yes, this is an obvious one.

If you’re not committed to be rich, you can never be rich. How many times have you heard people say that they want to be rich, but they never do anything about it?
This is the mentality of poor people. They will just think about how good it is going to be if they are rich, but they will never do anything about their dreams. They know that they cannot afford a luxury car if they have a low pay job. The thing is, they never do anything to change it.
On the contrary, rich and successful people are committed toward their dreams. They will do whatever it takes, in the boundary or moral and ethics of course, to achieve their dreams.

Rich people associate with rich and successful people. Poor people will associate with poor people. Do you have any rich friends? Or all of your friends are poor?

I’m not suggesting that you need to stop making friends with poor people, what I’m suggesting it, try to get to know more about rich people. The more you mix with them, the more you will think like them. And if you think like them, you will start to create amazing results just like them.
If most of your friends are poor and their working salary all are below, $2,000, you will be having the same range of salary most of the time. However, if you associate with rich people who are making $2,000 in just a day, you will start to see the possibility of what you can accomplish in your life.
And this will change your thinking of what you can achieve in your life. $2,000 will become a small amount for you once you changed your mindset about money.

Rich people good learners while poor people think that they have learned everything in the world. One of the fastest ways to be financially abundance is to learn directly from people who have already achieved this status.

And if you’re not willing to learn, you will never be able to be successful. If you want to get the best pay, you must be the best. And the only way you can be the best is to learn from the best and learn to be the best.
You now know what are the 7 main differences between rich and poor people. Do what rich people do and try to avoid the adopting the mindset and habits of the poor.
This will guarantee you a financial abundance lifestyle.

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