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2016年10月9日 星期日

3D列印技術將至應用成長期,各產業應用將產生革命 ( 3D printing technology will reach high growth on application, the industry will revolutionize by this )

IDC:2020年3D列印市場規模將成長至354億美元

2016年3D列印市場將達159億美元,2020年成長至354億美元。儘管3D印表機、耗材將佔市場大宗,但電腦輔助設計在今後5年快速成長,預估成長可望達現今的3倍之多。各產業應用中,汽車設計、航太、國防、醫材等均有成長。

研究機構IDC最新全球3D列印市場支出追蹤半年報指出,2016年相關市場支出將達159億美元(約合新台幣4977億元),並以24.1%的年複合成長率增加,2020年將達到354億美元(約合新台幣1.11兆元)。

IDC表示,儘管3D印表機與相關耗材將占去市場大半,但3D列印相關軟體服務成長卻更為強勁。電腦輔助設計(CAD)軟體預計在5年後規模將達現今的3倍之多,隨需零件列印服務的成長速度也相去不遠。

3D列印市場最大的應用領域,將以汽車相關設計領域中的快速原型機列印為最,2016年將達40億美元規模,其次則是航太國防零部件列印,規模達24億美元,而牙材列印亦成長不錯。

若以產業別來看,由於原型機與零部件列印的應用案例最多,因此離散製造業自然成為3D列印最大客戶,在2016年佔市場總支出的56%。IDC表示,隨著製造業減少生產週期與控制原型機製造成本等誘因,3D列印在未來數年仍將快速成長,推出3D列印產品的公司也將會顯著增加。


在今年 3 月份的時候,惠普提出要解決 3D 印表機的兩個令人詬病的問題,一是列印速度慢,看著就像等冰融化一樣,第二精度低、品質差。

如今惠普帶來了憋了許久的新技術 Multi Jet Fusion,宣稱可以有十倍的速度提升,且精度更高,列印的顏色比任何一台競爭對手的產品都準,而且要準很多。惠普丟出狠話,打算為整個產業帶來革命,他們這項技術初期應用於企業級客戶,未來不排除也推出消費級產品。

HP 還展示了一個影片,列印出的一個掛鉤可以掛起一輛車,這個掛鉤列印用時不到 30 分鐘,重量 113g,可掛起 4.5 噸重的物體。影片中的車重量 1.1 噸,看起來掛鉤毫不費力,在硬度上令人驚嘆,這有望在製造業受到青睞。

惠普還展示了實機,但是要等到 2016 年才上市。在不久前,惠普宣佈拆分成 HP Enterprise 和 HP Inc. 兩家獨立的上市公司。前者專注於企業級的 IT 解決方案、基礎設施以及軟體和雲端服務。後者將包括惠普傳統的兩大硬體業務,PC 和列印。分拆將在 2015 年 10 月底前完成。

在印表機市場,惠普有著近半數的市場,是產業第一大廠,在商用和消費領域有著很強的口碑。藉助這些口碑和企業客戶關係,推廣 3D 印表機應該不是難事。現在主要看企業的需求,目前較為成熟的市場是工業設計、結構設計以及教育市場,部分製造業也有 3D 印表機的應用。



HP wants to drive the "next industrial revolution" and spark a change in the way products are manufactured with its new 3D printers.

The company's first 3D printers will ship later this year, said Cathie Lesjak, chief financial officer for HP, speaking at the Morgan Stanley Technology, Media and Telecom Conference this week.

HP first announced 3D printers in 2014, and is now preparing for the big launch. HP is looking to hire materials experts, mechanical engineers, managers and sales people for its push into 3D printing.
HP has a rich history in printing and is entering a 3D printing market that, over the past 20-plus years, has been marred by support and technology problems. HP wants to make 3D printing quicker, cheaper and faster for businesses.

3D printing PCB
"We're really not terribly interested in consumer 3D [printing], we're interested in commercial," Lesjak said.

The technology offers several advantages for businesses. Instead of using multiple machines to make a product, businesses will be able to use a single 3D printer to make parts, Lesjak said.

Companies will be able to cut manufacturing costs by making products in-house. With the ability to print parts when needed, companies don't have to worry about holding excess inventory, she said.

The HP printer will support advanced inks and materials. It will also use design rules and precision production methods typically applied to integrated circuit manufacturing.

HP's 3D printing technology has its basis in the company's PageWide commercial printing technology. PageWide uses special inks for faster document printing, and will likely expand to include new ink and material for 3D printing.

The excitement around 3D printing peaked in 2014, but has since died down. The stock prices of companies like Stratasys - which owns MakerBot - and 3D Systems have plummeted as those companies focused on the consumer market. That recent history is one reason why HP wants to focus exclusively on the commercial market, Lesjak said.

GE buys two 3D printing companies at $1.4 billion

A Swedish and a German company join the fold to make industrial components. On Tuesday, General Electric announced that it would spend $1.4 billion (~£1 billion) to acquire two European 3D printing companies—Arcam AB from Sweden and SLM Solutions Group from Germany. According to the Associated Press, GE spent $1.5 billion (~£1.1 billion) on 3D printing investments since 2010, meaning the acquisitions will double what the company has invested in the last five years.

In a press release, GE noted that Arcam “invented the electron beam melting machine for metal-based additive manufacturing and also produces advanced metal powders.” SLM Solutions, on the other hand, “produces laser machines for metal-based additive manufacturing.” Both companies have histories of doing business in the aerospace and healthcare industries, and SLM Solutions also has customers in the energy and automotive industries.
3D printing parts for GE

Speaking to The Wall Street Journal, GE’s CEO of Aviation David Joyce said that GE’s jet engine business has been the primary outlet for so-called additive manufacturing at the company, but it plans to use 3D printing more frequently in its power turbine and medical equipment businesses.

“GE said it expected to purchase about 1,000 new 3-D printing machines over the next decade,” the WSJ notes. “By bringing the two firms in-house, GE says it could cut costs by $3 billion to $5 billion across the company, since the technology could reduce design and material costs.” Eventually, GE could potentially become a supplier of industrial 3D printing machines and materials with these acquisitions.
3D printing is favored in certain kinds of industrial production—it can be used to create parts that are much lighter than molded or cast parts. At the same time, it can also take longer for a 3D printer to make parts than a more traditional process would take, meaning that many companies employ 3D printing at a prototyping stage but dispense with it for production-ready items. GE has said it hopes to make 3D printing faster by at least two to three times over the next few years, according to the WSJ.

趨勢分析

  • 由於3D列印技術大幅進步,3D列印技術將至應用成長期,各產業應用將產生革命;
  • 研究機構IDC最新全球3D列印市場支出追蹤半年報指出,2016年相關市場支出將達159億美元(約合新台幣4977億元),並以24.1%的年複合成長率增加,2020年將達到354億美元(約合新台幣1.11兆元)。
  • 對台灣產業影響很大,因為台灣小量多樣產業產值是超過 3000億以上,台灣需抓住這機會產生新的業產創新與成長,如3D列印機器人、客製3D列印產品等等。

2016年4月2日 星期六

我所體會之富人與窮人在行為、想法之差異 ( What I experienced between rich and poor in his/her thinking and behavior )

  許多人也許少有機會看見自已朋友從貧窮走向富足、從沒房子沒錢走向上億富人,我卻是親眼所見,希望藉這樣所見所聞,鼓勵大家走向富足,才能幫助許多人,不要以為不可能。

10 Major Differences Between Rich and Poor People

I've been rich and I’ve been poor. I know both sides very well.

Growing up poor, I knew that I wanted to be rich. At the age of 24, I earned my first million dollars. I came a long way and studied the subject all of my life. Over time, I have discovered that if you're not living in prosperity, you're living in poverty.

Wealth is a choice that we must all make. Bill Gates once said, "It's not your fault if you were born poor, but it’s your fault if you die poor." There's no reason why you should live in poverty. Wealth is waiting for you, but you have to make up your mind if you want it in your life.

For a long time, I struggled to believe that I could eventually become rich. It wasn't until I observed the differences in thoughts and actions between the "haves" and the "have-nots."

Here are 10 major differences between rich and poor people: ( behavior )
  • 1a. Poor people are skeptical  ( 窮人易懷疑態度 )
    • I distinctly remember a former coworker of mine saying, "Those mechanics are a rip-off! They're always looking for the weak people. They'll charge you when you're not looking!!" He thought that everyone unjustly wanted his money and that everyone is out there to get him. 
  • 1b. Rich people are trusting ( 富人信任人 )
    • Surprisingly, a great deal of rich people leave their car and house doors open. Conversely, in areas of poverty, you'll find that this behavior is highly unlikely to happen. Rich people have the tendency to trust those they meet (within reason) and give others the opportunity to be themselves.
  • 2a. Poor people find fault ( 窮人找錯誤 )
    • People who are poor are always looking for the problems instead of the solutions. They end up blaming their environment, circumstances, jobs, weather, government, and will make an extensive list of excuses as to why they cannot be successful. 
  • 2b. Rich people find success ( 富人尋覓成功之道 )
    • Rich people understand that everything happens for a reason. Rather than letting life happen to them, they take direct action and make big things happen. They put aside all the excuses and eradicate their blame lists because they have to do what must be done. 
Related: 10 Phrases Every Millionaire Avoids
  • 3a. Poor people make assumptions ( 窮人常做假設 )
    • When it comes to knowing the truth, poor people often make assumptions. If they want to reach out to a celebrity, they might say, "They probably don't have time to talk to me." Instead of checking the facts or asking questions, they never make a true attempt when it comes to getting what they want.
  • 3b. Rich people ask questions ( 富人常問問題 )
    • Many rich people ask the question, "What if?" For instance, "What if I wrote an email to the president and he or she answers?" If you begin to ask questions, you will save yourself a lot of hassle. The power is in the hands of those who ask the right questions. They don't answer your questions, question your answers.
  • 4a. Poor people say, "They" and "Them" ( 窮人常說“他們”和“他們” )
    • In the grocery store, the woman at the register said, "They never have enough cashiers. I don't know what's wrong with them." Obviously, this woman did not take any ownership and responsibility over her job. She certainly did separate herself from the job that was paying her. 
  • 4b. Rich people say, "We" ( 富人常說“我們” )
    • At one of my favorite restaurants, the server said, "We take great delight in cooking our steaks in real fire." His sense of pride and ownership stimulated me, which allowed me to give him an honorable tip. Surely, you will be rich when you invest more into what you believe in.  
  • 5a. Poor people want the cheapest way ( 窮人常選擇最便宜的方式 )
    • I was once shopping with a friend who only wanted to buy if they could find the cheapest clothing. They would rush to the clearance rack and pick up clothes that they didn't even want, but ended up buying because of a "deal." Unfortunately, they ended up never wearing it since they only bought the price.
  • 5b. Rich people want the best way  ( 富人常選擇最好的方法 )
    • Rich people will go the extra mile to find quality material. They don't limit themselves to price and often seek service while they shop. Rich people want organized services and will never settle with items that are worthless and unusable.
  • 6a. Poor people think money is more important than time ( 窮人認為金錢比時間更重要 )
    • Millions of people all over the world are trading their precious time for money. You can always get $500 back, but you can't get 50 hours again. Nonetheless, the majority of people trade time for money and never realize their true potential because of it.
  • 6b. Rich people know that time is more important than money ( 富人認為時間比金錢更重要 )
    • Rich people never trade time for money. Moreover, they seek fulfilling experiences that dramatically alter their lives. Their careers are more focused on doing what they love and helping others, instead of merely clocking in for a meager paycheck.
Related: 5 Secrets to Monetizing Your LinkedIn Experience
  • 7a. Poor people compete ( 窮人只知競爭 )
    • When a poor person sees an opportunity, they find out how others are doing it and emulates them. Most often, they never consider another way of doing it. Instead, they settle in the belief that doing what others are doing is the best thing they can do for themselves.
  • 7b. Rich people create ( 富人創造機會 )
    • My rich neighbors were disgruntled when they found that their Porsche did not come in a specific shade of green, which they deeply wanted. Because of this, they decided to custom build their green Porsche with unprecedented specifications. I've never seen such a thing! 
  • 8a. Poor people complain, condemn, and criticize ( 窮人抱怨,譴責和批判 )
    • Most poor people have learned how to be poor from their predecessors. Their family members have conditioned them to believe that everything is "wrong" instead of right. If you're ever heard someone ask, "What's wrong?" you'll know what I mean.
  • 8b. Rich people praise and enjoy their blessings ( 富人讚揚和感恩他們的祝福 )
    • Rich people know that they have many privileges and they don't take it for granted. Because of their appreciation of gifts, love, and circumstances, they are able to generate more. Many times, what gets praised gets prospered.
  • 9a. Poor people seek amateur advice ( 窮人常尋求非專業意見 )
    • They often listen to the opinions of others and seek approval from acquaintances. They believe almost everything they hear without questioning authority. They accept opinions as facts and prohibit themselves from doing research once satisfied with an answer.
  • 9b. Rich people seek expert advice ( 富人們徵求專家意見 )
    • Those who are rich have learned to think for themselves. If they cannot figure out something, they seek expert advice. Usually, they pay for the advice and are given a wide variety of options. They learn the experts only make suggestions, which means that they aren't particularly confined to a specific action.
  • 10a. Poor people have big television sets ( 窮人喜愛有大電視機 )
    • Poor people take a lot of time to drift off to sporadic images of which they often have little to no control over. They use their free time to avoid the art of thinking (which is the most challenging task) and zone out to what many have conformed to believe is "entertainment." 
  • 10b. Rich people have big libraries ( 富人喜愛有大知識庫 )
    • Wealthy people are educated and read a lot of books. They use their knowledge in a way that benefits them. Instead of drifting off in random activities, they seek to get within their minds to understand themselves, others, and the world in which they live. In fact, as your personal library increase over the years, so will your home. I can attest to this!
To get a true perspective on how to become rich, you must study rich people. After all, you become what you study. If you're currently surrounded by people who aren't yet rich, just do the opposite of what they do. Soon enough, you'll be able to reach your financial dreams!

7 Main Differences Between Rich And Poor People

    Most people want to be rich, but most of them are poor, why? There must be some differences between rich people and poor people. If you study carefully, you will find out why rich and successful people are able to produce amazing results in their life, and why some people are living in poverty.
  To be rich and successful, you don’t need to be lucky, extremely hard working or you need to have a college diploma or a university degree.
  What you need, is the right mindset and the right mindset will form the right habit. As a result, the right habit will lead you toward the financial abundance kind of lifestyle that you always desire.
So here are the 7 main differences between rich and poor people…

  1. Rich people believe that they create their lives while poor people believe that life happens to them. 
    • Can you see why rich and successful people are able to create amazing results in their life right now? It is simply because they are in control of their lives. They believe that they are the ones who is responsible for their lives, they are the ones who is creating their future, not the economy or the knowledge or luck. On the other hand, poor people will always give excuses and blame on the circumstances. 
    • When they failed in their business, they will blame the economy, their boss, their family or anything that did not go according to their plan. Whenever you believe that life happens to you, you will lose the power to change and the power to control your future. You must believe that you’re the one who is creating your future, not other people or events.
  2. Rich people play the money game to win but poor people play the money game just not to lose money. 
    • This is a big mindset difference. Have you ever seen people invest in the stock market? Some people are so afraid that they will lose their money and they form a mindset that blocks their creativity. They formed the mindset of ‘investing not to lose the money.’However, rich and successful people know exactly how they need to think in order to win the game of money. 
    • They will think and act from the view of playing the game to win. Unlike poor people, they will never invest just not to lose the money.
  3. Rich people think and focus on opportunities while poor people focus on obstacles. 
    • When you face with problems, what are you focus on? Are you focus on the problems, thinking how bad the situation is going to be? Or are you focusing on the solution and thinking about how you can solve or even turn the situation into opportunity? Think about this carefully. No matter who you are, you will definitely face with all kinds of choices in your life. And when you need to decide to move on, try to notice on you thinking, what do you focus on, the solution, or the problem?
  4. Rich people dare to dream big, poor people think small. 
    • When I tell my parents that I want to make a million dollar, they will tell me, “Why do you need so much money? You can live a very good lifestyle if you got a job that has a good pay. You don’t need to be a millionaire.” I don’t know about you, but this statement happens to me all the time. And I definitely believe that poor people will tend to think small while rich people always think big. 
    • To poor people, they will think that rich people are greedy because they always think big. Is it true that you are being greedy if you think big? I don’t know if I buy this, but to me, I’ll think of it as a waste if you’re not using the resources available (your thinking) to you at full. Don’t you owe it to everyone around you to create a better life for them? Don’t you want your family to live good? So think big and create the abundance lifestyle for these people right now.
  5. Rich people are committed to their dreams, poor people are just dreaming about their dreams. Yes, this is an obvious one. 
    • If you’re not committed to be rich, you can never be rich. How many times have you heard people say that they want to be rich, but they never do anything about it?
    • This is the mentality of poor people. They will just think about how good it is going to be if they are rich, but they will never do anything about their dreams. They know that they cannot afford a luxury car if they have a low pay job. The thing is, they never do anything to change it.
    • On the contrary, rich and successful people are committed toward their dreams. They will do whatever it takes, in the boundary or moral and ethics of course, to achieve their dreams.
  6. Rich people associate with rich and successful people. Poor people will associate with poor people. Do you have any rich friends? Or all of your friends are poor?
    • I’m not suggesting that you need to stop making friends with poor people, what I’m suggesting it, try to get to know more about rich people. The more you mix with them, the more you will think like them. And if you think like them, you will start to create amazing results just like them.
    • If most of your friends are poor and their working salary all are below, $2,000, you will be having the same range of salary most of the time. However, if you associate with rich people who are making $2,000 in just a day, you will start to see the possibility of what you can accomplish in your life.
    • And this will change your thinking of what you can achieve in your life. $2,000 will become a small amount for you once you changed your mindset about money.
  7. Rich people good learners while poor people think that they have learned everything in the world. One of the fastest ways to be financially abundance is to learn directly from people who have already achieved this status.
And if you’re not willing to learn, you will never be able to be successful. If you want to get the best pay, you must be the best. And the only way you can be the best is to learn from the best and learn to be the best.
You now know what are the 7 main differences between rich and poor people. Do what rich people do and try to avoid the adopting the mindset and habits of the poor.
This will guarantee you a financial abundance lifestyle.

成為富人我體會之富人行為、想法心得:
  • 看趨勢、對方向比什麼都重要;( Trend )
  • 看遠景、產業趨勢;( Vision )
  • 生意模式、商業模式及創新之價值;( Business model )
  • 重閱讀、知識、人脈,非常多富人有大量知識及閱讀習慣;( Knowledge、Connection )
  • 看重健康,知道感恩 ( healthy & blessing life )
  • 看重執行力、選最好的來運作 ( Execution、do the best )
  • 看重投資及生意模式之財務績效成長率及風險,指數型成長,還是線型成長 ( Profit、Risk model )
  • 足夠的耐心等待時機、足夠的恆心毅力,了解該堅持是什麼 ( Patient、Determination
     )
    • 時間比金錢重要,時機比時間及金錢還重要
    • 時間比金錢重要,重點在於運用人脈、資源去順利達成
  • 一個產業或投資之成長,不是所有行業或方式賺的錢是一樣多的,投資賺錢模式要對 ( What is the key and secret in the great success of business and investment model ? )

參考

2015年10月9日 星期五

第一SLA 3D列印電子小提琴就在這裡!很明顯 - 這是驚人的!( The First SLA 3D Printed Electric Violin is Here! It’s Amazing & It’s Clear ! )

Over the past year or so, we have really begun to see musicians and designers utilizing 3D printing technology in order to create unique, custom, and incredibly sounding musical instruments. We’ve seen everything from guitars to cellos, flutes and violins all fabricated on 3D printers of all kinds. Most of these instruments have been created either on FDM/FFF based 3D printers similar to those found on many of our desktops at home, or large industrial level selective laser sintering (SLS)machines. Now, however, one musician, named Laurent Bernadac had taken things up another notch. Laurent Bernadac, you see, has taken it upon himself to create a fully playable electric violin which has been printed using stereolithographic (SLA) technology. This has allowed him to create one of the most astonishing violins you will ever see. [在過去一年左右的時間,我們確實開始看到音樂家利用3D列印技術設計創造獨特的令人難以置信的動聽樂器。我們已經看到了一切各種3D列印機製作之吉他到大提琴,長笛和小提琴。大多數這些文書已經建立或者在相似於我們的許多台式機在家裡,或大型工業級選擇性激光燒結(SLS)的機器發現FDM/ FFF的3D列印機。現在,然而,一個音樂家,一個名為Laurent  Bernadac 採取的事情了另一個缺口。Laurent  Bernadac,你看,已經使用 stereolithographic(SLA)技術印製他自己創建一個完全可玩的電小提琴。這使得他創造一個你永遠不會看到的最令人驚訝的小提琴之一。]

Called the 3D Varius, not only does it play crystal clear music, but its bout (body), neck and the majority of the rest of the instrument is 3D printed in a clear material as well. [ 叫 3D VARIUS,它不僅起到清澈的音樂,但它的 bout(體),頸部和大部分儀器的其餘部分是透明材料3D列印。]

Bernadac’s design is actually based on a Stradivarius violin; a violin which was built by members of the Stradivari family during the 17th and 18th centuries. It is 3D printed in one single piece, which strays quite a bit from traditional violin production, using UV light to cure a liquid photo-reactive resin. This method of 3D printing builds up highly detailed and precise objects in a matter of hours.


Once the violin was 3D printed, it required a quick clean-up before being put under a strong UV light in order to completely polymerize the entire structure. This ensures that it is completely cured and as strong as can be. Then the surfaces of the violin, which comes into contact with the strings or the musician’s body, are sanded down in order to “offer optimal playing comfort”. It’s then off to stringing the instrument, a process which must be done with complete precision and care in order to ensure that it plays with the clarity it is capable of.


While Bernadac says that the violin is fully 3D printed, in actuality it isn’t entirely fabricated on a 3D printer, as of course the strings are not 3D printed, nor are the tuning pegs. However, the majority the instrument in fact is.
As you can hear in the videos on this page, the violin’s sound is as crystal clear as the instrument itself. Could SLA 3D printing prove to be the preferred printing method for 3D printing musical instruments? Bernadac’s 3D Varius may prove this to be true. What do you think about this unique, yet beautiful 3D printed violin? Discuss in the 3D Varius forum thread on 3DPB.com.

心得
  • 3D列印將成為有才華之音樂家、畫家、廚師、藝學家、工程師創造新的世界;
  • 科技也將改變音樂家、畫家、廚師、藝學家的世界;

2015年3月8日 星期日

620億美元的秘密︰巴菲特雪球傳奇全紀錄 - 非常值得理財投資人閱讀 ( $ 62 billion secret ︰ Buffett snowball legend Record - A well worth the financial investment Reading Book )

620億美元的秘密︰巴菲特雪球傳奇全紀錄

作者王寶玲 Dr. Jack Wang 是華人世界非文學類暢銷書最多的本土作家,台灣大學經濟系畢業,台大經研所、美國UCLA MBA、UCLA統計學博士。他自已在書籍最後幾頁也寫到巴菲特、鄭瑞清老師讓他真正能獲得財富自由之兩大投資智慧,我認為2015美股、台股都將進入歷史高點等待 2015 下半年 ~ 2016 另一回檔大修正時間,學習如何做巴菲特價值投資選股,再配合資金分配方法定指標定額投資法選擇最有智慧的買點來投資獲利,才不致於大部份時間在做短線賺賠中浪費掉人生!那不僅無益於你人生投資智慧,更可能讓你家庭帶來危機!

依照書上記載巴菲特 26歲財富累積至174000美元,運用價值投資到84歲財富成長至 727億美元,實現每年年報酬率 25% 復利的成長奇蹟 (註: 727億 = [1 + 25%]^[84-26] ),凡許多投資老師號稱能每年年報酬率能超過 80% 的方法,基本上大部份是騙人的,年報酬率超過 50% 的投資方法大部分是屬於大賺大賠之方法,有可能讓你一大賠不能翻身,小心為妙。

這本書提醒,「假如你不開始去做,你就不可能成功。賺錢的第一步就是開始著手…全國有無數的人想賺錢,但他們卻沒有賺到錢,因為他們總是在等這個、等那個。」開始著手!這本書如此告誡讀者。( 註:每週選擇 10 個公司及其股票仔細研究其公司價值及公司高層之誠信,開始學習價值投資 )。

巴菲特從葛拉漢那裡學到三項主要原則,要遵守這些原則,在心理上必須不受他人影響:
  • 股票是擁有某家公司的一小部分的權利。你願意為整家公司付多少錢,其股票的價值就是這金額的某個比例。
  • 運用安全邊際。投資是建立在估計值與不確定性之上,較大的安全邊際可預防正確的決定遭到意外的錯誤而抵銷。想要前進,最重要的前提就是不能後退。
  • 市場先生是你的僕人,而不是主人。葛拉漢虛構出一個善變的人物,名叫「市場先生」,這個人每天都想和你買賣股票,但他提出的價格往往不合理。市場先生的陰睛不定不該影響你對股價的看法,不過他有時也會給你買低賣高的機會。
巴菲特的秘密
  • 秘密一:巴菲特的不凡身世與致富之路
    • 生於經濟大蕭條,六歲作第一筆生意,十二歲開始買股,三十一歲成為百萬富豪;
    • 別急著賺大錢,做生意一定要精準,不要不經思索就急著賺小錢;
    • 從奧馬哈到華爾街,從一百美元到世界首富,一代巨人的傳奇,宛如停不下來的雪球!
  • 秘密二:巴菲特的投資法則與經營智慧
    • 終身奉行價值投資法,堅持大量買入、長期持有,不考慮科技網路股;
    • 尋找股價低於營運資金(working capital)的公司;
    • 安全邊際是最重要的。股票也許是擁有一部分公司的權利,你也可以預估股票的內在價值,但唯有安全邊際能讓你夜夜高枕無憂。
    • 巴菲特就用雪茄屁股投資法,只要股價仍低於帳面價值就持續買進,股價上漲就獲利了結。如果股價不漲,他也持續買進,直到掌握公司的控制權,然後拍賣資產,一樣能獲利。
    • 巴菲特後來寫信告訴合夥人,買下「對的公司(擁有對的前景、產業條件和管理等)」也就是公司的「質」就代表股價自己會漲。
    • 若是某家企業的技術非我所能了解,而且此技術對投資決定很重要,我們就不投資這家企業。
    • 若某家企業很可能發生重大人事問題,就算會有豐厚的獲利,我們也不投資。
    • 先評估投資的內在價值、降低風險、運用安全邊際原則收購、集中投資、保持在自己的能力範圍內,並讓這些投資以利滾利,不斷複合成長。或許任誰都了解這些簡單的概念,卻鮮少有人能具體落實。儘管巴菲特讓這個過程看起來經而易舉,但這背後的技術和紀律,卻需要他與旗下員工付出極大的心力。
    • 是投資?還是投機?是危機?還是轉機?巴菲特教你如何判斷股市,通往財富!
    • 巴菲特曾告訴子女,「建立名聲要花一輩子,但讓名譽掃地只需五分鐘。」,我認為投資方法對,建立一生的財富是成長與累積的,若投資方法不對,建立一生的財富極可能短時間賠光或損失慘重。
  • 秘密三:一生受用無窮的超實用附錄集
    • 智慧語錄、生涯年表、三大經典演講:輕鬆應付理財難題,化解人生瓶頸!
    • 持股一覽、子公司列表、致股東信:領悟成功經營者的致富王道!

從可口可樂、吉列、美國運通到沃爾瑪,這些巴菲特情有獨鍾的企業,都與生活息息相關,巴菲特始終相信,不論世界再怎麼變,人們還是會喝可口可樂,還是會刮鬍子,也還是會上商場買東西,因此他十分願意購買這樣的股票,並且大量持有。事實上,這些投資也從不讓巴菲特失望,截至今日,可口可樂股票已讓巴菲特賺了超過100億美元,美國運通則帶來70億的獲利,在吉列帳面的投資也擁有37億的回報,至於沃爾瑪,打從巴菲特買進前股價就一路上漲,它的高成長與獲利同樣讓股神愛不釋手,因此,波克夏也持續地增持沃爾瑪股票,如今,沃爾瑪已是波克夏旗下第六大搖錢樹,結果再一次證明了巴菲特獨到的眼光。

投資股票一定有比較多的利潤,否則年收入達千萬者,所擁有的億萬資產,從何而來?不過,有那麼高的投資報酬率,必然有「它」的風險存在。投資與投機,筆者認為是對等的,只是如何將投資與投機的風險降為最低,又如何做到在最佳的機會中,創造出最大的利潤。投資是以較長的時間取得「它」的報酬率,而投機則是在極短時間內,獲取最大的利潤,股票屬於投資。金融衍生性的商品如:期貨、選擇權、權證則是比較投機的行為,然而二者之間,最終目標還是為了追求高報酬率。總之,我認為2015美股、台股都將進入歷史高點等待 2015 下半年 ~ 2016 另一回檔大修正時間,學習如何做巴菲特價值投資選股,再配合資金分配方法定指標定額投資法選擇最有智慧的買點來投資獲利,其實是難得的學習機會,依我自已投資時程表:2014 ~ 2015 都是逐步賣出長期投資的股票,慢慢調整至固定配息美元保險資產,同時2014 ~ 2016 部份資金將分配於短期人民幣票卷、避險基金,等待市場恐慌大跌後,價值投資之定指標定額買進點才易出現。( 参考 : 華倫·巴菲特 Wiki 及 股市祖師爺合法投機秘笈 - 鄭瑞清 )。