2016年3月26日 星期六

聖嬰現象對糖產的負面影響於今年逐步發酵,需尋找糖價受益相關投資 ( The negative impact of El Nino on the fermentation of sugar this year, and gradually boost the sugar price )

基本面出現改善 糖價可望獲得推升動力

《Agrimoney.com》3月14日報導,荷蘭合作銀行(Rabobank)最新報告表示,糖市的基本面正在出現改善,並且也開始推動糖價的上漲,該行將2015/16年全球糖市短缺預估從470萬噸上調至680萬噸。報告表示,今年初以來糖價主要受到基金賣盤、總體經濟的不確定性,以及低油價等因素的影響,直到現在基本面的因素才正開始影響糖價。美國洲際期貨交易所(ICE Futures U.S.)5月粗糖期貨3月14日收盤為每磅15.42美分,創下年內新高。

德國軟性商品分析公司F.O. Licht週一(14日)也在報告中將糖市短缺預估從650萬噸上調至720萬噸。國際糖業組織( International Sugar Organisation )上月則是在報告中將將糖市短缺預估從150萬噸上調至500萬噸,巴西分析機構Datagro也將糖市短缺預估從387萬噸上調至437萬噸,福四通(FC Stone)將糖市短缺預估從560萬噸上調至700萬噸。

荷蘭合作銀行報告稱,未來糖價的主要影響因素在于最大產國巴西的產量,目前市場上預期2016/17年度巴西糖產量將為3,400-3,500萬噸,但該行認為巴西糖產量低於預期的機率要比高於預期的機率來得大,主要因為巴西可能有更多甘蔗將用於生產乙醇,並且天氣也可能是不利因素之一。此外,巴西幣近期的升值對於該國的糖出口也較為不利。

巴西甘蔗產業聯盟(Unica)技術總監羅德里格茲(Antonio de Padua Rodrigues)表示,自4月起的2016/17年度,主產的中南部地區糖產量預估將年增約200萬噸至3,300萬噸,此項預估低於其他分析機構的預期。

澳大利亞農業資源經濟及科技局(Abares)預估,未來五年全球糖市將是供給短缺的局面,有助於消化糖市的庫存;至2020/21年度,全球糖市的庫存消費比將從上年度的43%降至28%。2016/17年度,全球糖產量預估將為1.83億噸,產量增長主要來自於歐盟、中國大陸、巴西以及印度等國家。至2020/21年度,全球糖消費量預估較目前增加300萬噸至1.87億噸,其中95%的消費增長是來自於大陸、印度以及巴西等三個國家。


陸媒報導,2016年中國糖業發展國際論壇暨中國糖業協會商業流通會員座談會,將於3月11日於廣西舉行,屆時主產糖省區將通報2015/2016年製糖期食糖產銷情況、2016/2017年製糖期糖料種植情況。另受聖嬰現象影響,全球食糖產量明顯下滑,國際主要糖業機構普遍預計,全球糖市六年來首次出現供應缺口,缺口規模將超市場預期。機構預計,白糖已經進入減產週期,需求保持穩定增長致使庫存去化加速,糖價有望繼續上漲,製糖業景氣可望持續。

據悉,2015/2016年榨季,大陸糖產量再降10%以上,而需求穩定增長,供給和需求顯著改善將推動糖價上漲。2015/2016年製糖期已進入生產旺季,截至今年1月底,本製糖期全國累計產糖421.09萬噸,上製糖期同期產糖為478.57萬噸,比上製糖期同期少產糖57.48萬噸,減產幅度達12%。


與此同時,大陸食糖需求處於穩定增長,根據近日大陸國家統計局資料顯示,去(2015)年食品和飲料製造業年增均逾7.5%,而食品及飲料製造業在大陸食糖消費的比例中佔據主要規模。另外,據外媒報導,緬甸白糖與甘蔗產品商協會消息,今財年中國白糖需求量高漲,進行了大量購買,因而緬甸本財年(2015年至2016財年)白糖出口量預計將創30年來新高,有望超過300萬噸。

大陸糖業已進入新一輪減產週期,未來不斷改善的供需關係將推升製糖業景氣。自2011/2012年榨季以來,廣西甘蔗收購價逐年下調,自500元/噸(人民幣,下同)降至去年的400元/噸,目前略有回升。但受兌付率偏低、改種其他農作物等因素影響,農民種植甘蔗的意願已大幅降低,預計2016/2017年度種植面積難以出現明顯回升。

此外,受聖嬰現象影響,食糖主產國的產量明顯下降。國際主要糖業機構普遍預計,2015/2016年度,全球糖市六年來首次出現供應缺口,且缺口規模將超預期。其中,巴西中南部主產區2015/2016年榨季減產格局已定,聖嬰現象對印度、泰國食糖生產也造成不利影響。多家機構預測2015/2016年度全球食糖供應出現缺口,且近日多家機構預計供需缺口將擴大。巴西行業分析機構 Datagro 近期表示,預計2015/2016年度全球糖市供應短缺437萬噸,1月預估為387萬噸,2016/2017年度預計短缺769萬噸。

There's a worldwide sugar shortage happening right now

If you’re a fan of sugar - and let’s face it, you probably are - 2016 is going to be an expensive year, because recent El Niño events have brought on a worldwide sugar shortage that's becoming a whole lot bigger than analysts initially thought.

According to a report by The Independent, raw sugar prices are up 45 percent since last August, and researchers say it's because El Niño has dealt a one-two punch to the areas of the world where most sugar is produced. For India, Thailand, and China, droughts have devastated this year's production, and will likely affect next year’s yield as well.

The world’s second largest sugar-producing region, India, has experienced decreased rainfall that has limited the number of crops farmers were able to plant. To make matters worse, the areas that have received rain, such as Brazil, got too much to properly harvest cane.

All of this means that there isn’t enough sugar to fulfil the 4.95 million tonnes the world is expected to consume this year. Demand for the natural sweetener is expected to exceed new supply by 7.6 million metric tonnes this season - a 2.5 million-tonne increase over its previous estimates, The Wall Street Journal reports.

On the plus side, this year’s shortage comes at a time when sugar was at its lowest price in many years thanks to a surplus of production. "After five years of surplus that sent prices to the lowest since 2008, supply is expected to fall short of demand in the 2015-16 season," Rudy Ruitenberg reports for Bloomberg.

"The fact is that we’ve had four to five years of too much sugar - four or five years of feast, and we’re now looking for the first time at a sizeable deficit," Tim Worledge from Platts Agriculture, an independent commodities analysis organisation, told The Wall Street Journal.

Economic repercussions aside, what actually happened to cause this shortage? To answer that, we need to talk about El Niño, which, in its most basic summary, is simply a climate cycle.

As the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) puts it: "The term El Niño refers to the large-scale ocean-atmosphere climate interaction linked to a periodic warming in sea surface temperatures across the central and east-central Equatorial Pacific."

When in full swing, El Niño affects weather all over the place. For some areas, this means more rain, and for others, that means less. This year and last, the cycle has affected sugar producing regions of the world harder. There’s not really any specific reason for this - it’s just really bad luck.

So, for the foreseeable future, get ready to spend more on sugar at the store and hope that the weather favours the regions responsible for its production next year.

分析

  • 目前為2012年產季有完整紀錄以來的同期產量最低點,同時印度全國約500家糖廠,去年同期尚有473家運作中,今年僅325家,其中今年已停止生產的189家糖廠中。
  • Green Pool Commodities increased its forecast for the global sugar deficit, saying consumption will exceed supply by 6.65 million tons, up from an earlier forecast of 4.14 million tons for the crop year that ends in March.. ( 預估糖供應小於需求 ).
  • 糖價在今年初隨整體原物料商品價格一同走弱,但從上週起已完全收復今年跌幅,目前仍持續走多• 上週已提到巴西里爾匯率走升為軟性商品價格提供支撐,但目前已升至相對高點,且由於巴西政局動盪將進入相對較大波動•除匯率之外,從去年起的聖嬰現象對糖產的負面影響於今年逐步發酵,導致糖的供應基本面短缺趨勢明顯,預期今年糖價將持續在供應不足消息下走升

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